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Bitcoin’s downtrend may end within 12 months, says Altcoin Sherpa

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Bitcoin’s downtrend may end within 12 months, says Altcoin Sherpa

Altcoin Sherpa says Bitcoin’s bear phase could end within 12 months as ETFs, macro risks and a possible capitulation shape the next accumulation zone.

Bitcoin market analyst Altcoin Sherpa has projected the current cryptocurrency bear phase will conclude in less than 365 days, with the digital asset potentially resuming its broader uptrend before year-end, according to analysis published on social media platform X.

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The projection comes as Bitcoin trades well below its all-time high reached in October, prompting investor questions about when the cryptocurrency might establish its next bottom.

Sherpa specified the timeline refers to the move from peak to bottom and does not include the accumulation period that typically follows, according to the analysis. The accumulation phase is characterized by sideways price action with relatively low volatility and subdued trading volume, historically lasting between two and four months.

Historical data shows Bitcoin experienced major rallies in 2017 and 2021, each followed by year-long declines in 2018 and 2022, according to the analyst. Extended accumulation periods followed those drawdowns in 2019 and 2020. From peak to bottom in both the 2017-2018 and 2021-2022 cycles, Bitcoin required approximately one year to complete its downward move.

Past bear markets have featured a final capitulation event—a sharp sell-off marking the end of the downtrend, according to Sherpa’s analysis. The analyst indicated a capitulation may have already occurred earlier this year, pointing to a substantial price drop as a potential final decline. If correct, the market could already be in early accumulation stages.

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Sherpa stated the current decline will differ from previous patterns due to structural changes in the market. The analyst cited the growing role of US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which have altered capital flow structures despite declining alongside the broader market. An extended consolidation period of approximately eight months in a prior price range was also noted, with such trading ranges often acting as support zones during pullbacks from a technical analysis perspective.

Broader macroeconomic factors including equities, metals, overall risk appetite and artificial intelligence developments remain critical variables, according to the analysis. Sherpa stated Bitcoin does not require another seven months of decline to form a bottom, suggesting accumulation may already be underway if the recent slide was the final capitulation.

The analyst acknowledged one key risk to the outlook: the possibility that a final capitulation has not yet occurred. If another significant sell-off emerges, that would be interpreted as the definitive bottoming event, with accumulation likely following for several months, according to the analysis.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin ETFs on Track to Turn Positive YTD as XRP Rebounds

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Bitcoin ETFs on Track to Turn Positive YTD as XRP Rebounds

US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) extended their inflow streak to seven consecutive days, marking the longest run since October 2025.

Spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs added $199.4 million on Monday, bringing their seven-day streak to around $1.2 billion, according to data from SoSoValue. The latest inflows suggest continued institutional interest, though total inflows remain far below the roughly $6 billion seen during the October 2025 run.

Total trading volumes fell to $2.6 billion on Monday, while total assets under management in Bitcoin ETFs climbed to $96.7 billion. Net year-to-date flows remain negative, following $1.8 billion in cumulative monthly outflows and $1.7 billion in cumulative inflows.

The ETF rebound has coincided with broader strength in crypto investment products, which drew about $2.7 billion over three straight weeks, lifting year-to-date inflows to roughly $1.2 billion, according to CoinShares.

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Daily spot Bitcoin ETF inflows from March 9–March 17, 2026, versus Sept. 29–Oct. 9, 2025. Source: SoSoValue

XRP funds post first gains after eight-day losing streak

Spot altcoin ETFs also saw a broad uptick, led by Ether (ETH) with $138.3 million in inflows, the largest since March 4. Solana (SOL) followed the trend with $17.8 million in inflows, also the biggest since March 4.

XRP (XRP) stood out with $4.64 million inflows, the first gains since March 4. The ETFs saw $56.8 million outflows in the period from March 5-16.

Daily XRP ETF flows from March 4–March 17, 2026. Source: SoSoValue

Despite $33.5 million in outflows so far in March, XRP ETFs remain in the green year-to-date, supported by $73.7 million in inflows during January and February.

Solana leads all crypto ETFs year-to-date with $223 million in net inflows.

Related: Bernstein says Bitcoin rebound reflects more resilient long-term holder base

In contrast, Ether ETFs remain underwater, with $364.5 million in year-to-date outflows, following $358.5 million in inflows in March and $723 million in outflows during the first two months of the year.

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Magazine: Spot Bitcoin ETFs first green week, crypto ATM losses surge 33%: Hodler’s Digest, Mar. 8 – 14