Crypto World
Bitcoin’s Next Move May Hinge on U.S. Credit and Debt Conditions
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) dipped below $73,000 on Tuesday as a confluence of tightening credit conditions and elevated debt costs test market nerves. The macro backdrop shows a paradox: credit spreads remain compressed even as debt levels and borrowing costs stay elevated, a dynamic some analysts say could define BTC’s trajectory over the coming months. In this environment, an intriguing pattern emerges: the gap between credit pricing and actual credit-market stress has become a potential predictor for Bitcoin’s next move, echoing how similar dislocations played out in prior cycles.
Key takeaways
- The ICE BofA US Corporate Option-Adjusted Spread is at 0.75, its lowest level since 1998.
- US debt stands at about $38.5 trillion, while the 10-year Treasury yield is hovering near 4.28%.
- Bitcoin whale inflows to exchanges have risen, but on-chain profit-taking is easing despite the higher turnover on centralized venues.
- Historical cycles show BTC often forms a local bottom several months after credit spreads widen, a pattern that could repeat if liquidity tightens further.
- Analysts have signaled that a renewed accumulation phase could unfold in the months ahead, potentially after a period of market stress becomes more visible.
Market context: The current setup places Bitcoin at a crossroads where tight credit conditions and escalating debt costs contrast with a risk-off tilt in broader markets. The macro backdrop remains complex: while spreads compress, signaling relatively contained credit risk by some measures, the debt burden and the path of yields continue to constrain liquidity and appetite for risk assets, including BTC. This divergence—cheap-ish credit against a backdrop of financial strain—has historically preceded pronounced price moves for Bitcoin, underscoring why market participants are watching the bond and credit markets as a leading indicator for crypto trajectories. For reference, the data point often cited is the ICE BofA Corporate OAS, which has been moving in a way that ties into Bitcoin’s price rhythms during stress episodes.
In previous cycles—2018, 2020 and 2022—Bitcoin tended to bottom after credit spreads began to widen, with the delay ranging roughly three to six months. The suggestion of a lag between financial-market stress and crypto-price bottoms has resurfaced as traders parse the current dislocation. Some analysts have argued that if liquidity tightens further and spreads rise, Bitcoin could enter another phase of accumulation before broader market stress becomes fully evident. For instance, commentary from Alphractal founder Joao Wedson highlighted the potential for an accumulation phase if liquidity conditions deteriorate and credit spreads widen in the months ahead, a scenario that could set the stage for a multi-month consolidation before fresh directional moves. Argued.
Bitcoin whale activity and on-chain dynamics
Over the past few days, on-chain data show a spat of activity that peers at broad selling pressure yet also hints at longer-term fatigue among holders. Analysts have observed intensified transfers of BTC from large wallets to centralized exchanges, including a notable spike when wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC deposited roughly 5,000 BTC on a single day—an amount that mirrors a similar spike seen in December. The pattern of inflows from high-value wallets has raised questions about near-term selling pressure, especially amid a broader market lull.
In parallel, a broader cohort—holders in the six- to twelve-month age category—also moved 5,000 BTC to exchanges, marking the largest inflow from this segment since early 2024. Yet despite these near-term inflows, a counterpoint is evident: long-term holder behavior appears less aggressive, with spending output profit ratio (SOPR) sliding toward 1, its lowest reading in a year as BTC tested a year-to-date low near $73,900.
The tension between supply-side selling signals and longer-term holder exhaustion is a focal point for traders trying to gauge whether price weakness will endure or consolidate into a base. SOPR’s retreat toward equilibrium suggests fatigue among sellers in the longer horizon, a sign that a more durable bottom might require additional macro catalysts or clearer liquidity signals. The data, including real-time movement patterns and on-chain profitability metrics, remains a key input for analysts weighing the likelihood of a new accumulation window amid ongoing macro stress.
In the broader lens, the trend of exchange inflows paired with mixed on-chain signals mirrors what happened in prior cycles: weakness in price often coincides with attempts at price discovery amid shifting risk sentiment. The bond market’s stress indicators—how spreads widen or compress—tend to precede or align with crypto-market inflection points in ways that traders have tracked for years. As yields remain elevated and debt continues to accrue, the path of least resistance for Bitcoin may hinge on whether liquidity tightens enough to widen credit spreads, thereby unlocking a new phase of accumulation that could endure into the latter half of the year.
Looking ahead, investors will be watching two intertwined channels: the projected movements in credit-spread dynamics, and the cash-flow environment that governs risk appetite more broadly. If spreads begin a sustained widening trend, and liquidity tightens toward the 1.5%–2% range in coming weeks and months, BTC could see more pronounced bottom-building dynamics. Conversely, if credit conditions stay contained while yields drift higher, the downside might be tempered, and the market could pivot toward a range-bound phase that emphasizes accumulation rather than rapid sell-offs. The narrative remains contingent on macro developments, but the structural data—ranging from the debt mountain to the nuanced behavior of large BTC holders—provides a framework for parsing the next leg of the BTC story.
Why it matters
The observed disconnect between credit pricing and underlying market stress matters because it feeds into a broader risk-management framework for crypto investors. When traditional markets signal rising caution through widening stress or tighter liquidity, crypto assets can behave as a leveraged proxy—at times drawing demand from hedging flows, at other times succumbing to capitulation. The current data set—debt totals, yield levels, and evolving on-chain activity—offers a lens into how Bitcoin might respond as macro signals evolve. For users and builders in the ecosystem, the takeaway is to monitor liquidity proxies alongside price action, recognizing that a sustained shift in credit conditions could precede meaningful regime changes for BTC and related assets.
At the same time, the data remind market participants that crypto markets are not isolated from macro forces. Central bank policy expectations, debt dynamics, and financial-market stress indicators continue to weave a complex tapestry that shapes capital allocation. Understanding these interconnections can help traders anticipate whether the coming months will favor accumulation, consolidation, or renewed volatility as global liquidity conditions adapt to shifting fiscal and monetary landscapes.
What to watch next
- Watch credit-spread movements toward the 1.5%–2% range through April, which could precede renewed BTC downside or a gradual bottoming process.
- Monitor the trajectory of US debt and the 10-year yield, especially any sustained retreats or surprises that could alter liquidity dynamics.
- Track on-chain SOPR levels and exchange-inflow patterns, especially among holders in the six- to twelve-month window, for signs of seller exhaustion or renewed demand.
- Look for a potential accumulation window after July 2026, as suggested by macro-cycle analyses that link credit stress to longer-term price basins.
Sources & verification
- ICE BofA US Corporate Option-Adjusted Spread data and related macro signals (BAMLC0A0CM) from the Federal Reserve’s data repository.
- U.S. debt levels and the 10-year Treasury yield data points reflecting the January-end totals and current yields.
- CryptoQuant insights on whale and holder activity and SOPR trends used to interpret near-term market dynamics.
- Analyst commentary on liquidity and bond-market stress scenarios that inform Bitcoin’s potential accumulation phase.
Market reaction and macro signals shaping BTC trajectory
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has moved to test new support near the lower end of its recent range as macro indicators paint a mixed picture for risk assets. The corporate credit market continues to offer a strange juxtaposition: spreads are tight on the surface, yet the debt landscape remains heavy, and yields persist in a tight corridor. This bifurcation creates a testing ground for BTC, where a failure to sustain prices could reflect broader risk-off dynamics, while a stabilization or rebound could indicate the onset of an accumulation period as liquidity conditions slowly improve, or at least stop deteriorating.
Historical context provides a framework for interpretation. In past cycles, periods of widening credit stress often preceded a trough in BTC prices by a few months, followed by a phase of quiet accumulation as investors waited for clearer macro direction. The present discussion centers on whether current signals will produce a similar pattern or whether a new regime will emerge where BTC acts more as a hedge against macro risk rather than a tradable risk-on asset. The ongoing debate among market observers highlights a spectrum of possible outcomes, with some arguing that the next leg could hinge on how the bond market absorbs liquidity stress, while others point to on-chain signals that may foretell a more durable bottom forming in the months ahead.
The conversation also touches upon practical implications for market participants. If liquidity tightens and spreads widen, Bitcoin could see renewed volatility as traders reposition portfolios to weather the stress. If, on the other hand, the stress signals abate and the price finds support, the market could shift toward gradual accumulation—a phase that has historically offered a quieter backdrop for long-term investors to build positions. The data and commentary from industry analysts keep bridging macro indicators with on-chain realities, providing a nuanced view of the evolving crypto-market landscape.
Stablecoin payments infrastructure firm TransFi has raised $19.2 million to expand its operations.
Summary
- TransFi raised $19.2 million in a Series A round led by Turing Financial Group to expand its stablecoin-based cross-border payments infrastructure.
- The company plans to deploy the funds across emerging markets while strengthening regulatory licensing and scaling enterprise merchant adoption.
According to a recent announcement, the company raised $14.2 million in Series A equity along with a $5 million committed liquidity facility. The funding round was led by Turing Financial Group.
TransFi will use the capital to fund expansion across South-East Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, LatAm and Africa. It plans to pursue deeper regulatory licensing and scale its enterprise merchant acquisition.
A portion of the funds would also be used to strengthen AI-first operations and product development across B2B payments, checkout infrastructure and stablecoin orchestration.
“This Series A allows us to scale our infrastructure across high-friction markets and continue proving that stablecoin-enabled payments are not the future, they are already happening,” said Raj Kamal, Co-Founder and CEO of TransFi.
TransFi positions itself as an alternative to traditional correspondent banking and SWIFT-based systems and said it is on track to achieve roughly $5 billion in processed transaction volume by the end of fiscal year 2026. The company currently operates in over 70 countries and supports more than 40 fiat currencies and over 100 cryptocurrencies.
Stablecoin usage is rising
As previously reported by crypto.news, stablecoin supply has surpassed $315 billion, led by Tether, which continues to dominate the market by share. Other major players, such as Circle, have also expanded their presence across payments and financial applications.
A number of traditional financial firms, including Mastercard and Standard Chartered, have also taken an interest in the growing stablecoin sector.
Meanwhile, several jurisdictions across the globe have started introducing regulatory frameworks and legislation.
U.S. regulators’ first joint guidance on applying securities laws to different types of crypto tokens failed to provide enough impetus to lift bitcoin , the largest, above $75,000.
The interpretive guidance from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which doesn’t carry the weight of a formal rule, classified crypto tokens into five distinct categories: digital commodities, digital collectibles, digital tools, stablecoins and digital securities, and removed a major source of market uncertainty.
The stance marks a shift from the existing case-by-case enforcement, making it clear which tokens are considered securities and which are not, and is expected to give issuers and exchanges much‑needed clarity on how different assets will be regulated under federal law.
“The practical effect is a more coherent and less burdensome regulatory environment. Legal uncertainty declines, the risk of retroactive enforcement is reduced, and compliance becomes more predictable,” Tagus Capital said.
“This supports institutional participation, exchange development, and product innovation, while improving market structure through lower compliance costs and better price discovery. Although the guidance stops short of binding law and still leaves room for case-by-case interpretation, it sets a strong template for future legislation and may accelerate global regulatory convergence.”
Even so, bitcoin was unable to build on this month’s bounce from $65,000, which at one point on Tuesday, saw the price approach $76,000. The cryptocurrency was largely unchanged over the past 24 hours.
Other major tokens such as XRP (XRP), ether (ETH) and solana (SOL) also saw choppy price action, with the CoinDesk 20 Index down 0.3%.
According to analysts, $75,000 is a key resistance level for bitcoin.
“On the upside, $75,400–$76,000 continues to act as resistance,” Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based crypto exchange Giottus said in an email. “Bitcoin needs to hold above this range to signal stronger momentum.”
One possible reason for the restraint could be the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision due later Wednesday. The U.S. central bank is widely expected to hold rates unchanged in the 3.5% to 3.75% range. This leaves traders focused less on the decision and more on the interest‑rate projections in the wake of the Iran war‑related energy price shock.
The rate decision, policy statement, and economic projections will hit the wires at 2 p.m. ET followed by Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference a half hour later.
Yesterday, BTC/USD rose above the $75k level, thereby setting a new high for March. The last time Bitcoin traded at such levels was in early February.
Why is Bitcoin Rising?
Bitcoin’s appeal appears to be increasing due to a combination of factors, including:
→ ongoing military conflict in the Middle East;
→ expectations of rising inflation and upcoming Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates.
According to on-chain data, March has seen capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. At the same time, media reports indicate that major corporate players (notably MicroStrategy) have purchased approximately $1.57 billion worth of Bitcoin, creating strong organic demand.
Technical Analysis of BTC/USD
On 5 March, when analysing Bitcoin’s price movements within a broad descending channel, we:
→ noted that the bullish impulse at the beginning of March led to a breakout above the QL resistance line, as well as the psychological $70k level;
→ highlighted that the median line M could act as a barrier to further gains;
→ suggested a potential pullback scenario.
Indeed, since then (as shown by the red trajectory), Bitcoin has undergone a fairly deep correction, reversing lower from the M line. Notably, the QL line subsequently acted as support.
Trading volume analysis (based on Coinbase data) shows that:
→ on 13 March, bearish activity intensified, resulting in a long upper wick on a high-volume candle;
→ on 15–16 March, the price advanced alongside rising volumes, with candles closing near their highs.
This can be interpreted as strengthening demand: buyers are pushing sellers out of the $70–72k zone, which may serve as support in the near term.
Given the above, a continued upside scenario cannot be ruled out, in which Bitcoin maintains an upward trajectory within the blue channel.
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EUR/USD is attempting a recovery wave from the 1.1400 zone. USD/CHF climbed higher above 0.7900 before it started a downside correction.
Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today
· The Euro declined toward 1.1400 before it started a recovery wave against the US Dollar.
· There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1500 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
· USD/CHF climbed higher above 0.7850 and 0.7900 before it faced hurdles.
· There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at 0.7870 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair extended the decline below 1.1500. The Euro even declined below 1.1440 before the bulls appeared against the US Dollar.
The pair tested 1.1410 and recently started a recovery wave. There was a move above 1.1450 and 1.1480. The pair climbed above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1667 swing high to the 1.1410 low.
More importantly, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1500. The pair is now trading above 1.1520 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Immediate hurdle on the EUR/USD chart is near the 61.8% Fib retracement at 1.1570.
The first key breakout zone sits at 1.1605. An upside break above 1.1605 might send the pair toward 1.1665. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.1700 zone. If there is a fresh decline, the pair might find bids near 1.1505.
The next major support is 1.1470. A downside break below 1.1470 could send the pair toward 1.1410. Any more losses might send the pair to 1.1360.
USD/CHF Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of USD/CHF at FXOpen, the pair started a decent increase from 0.7750. The US Dollar climbed above the 0.7800 handle against the Swiss Franc.
The bulls were able to pump the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 0.7850. Finally, the pair tested 0.7920. A high was formed near 0.7923 and the pair is now correcting some gains. The pair dipped below the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7748 swing low to the 0.7923 high.
Besides, there was a break below a bullish trend line at 0.7870. On the downside, immediate support on the USD/CHF chart is near the 50% Fib retracement at 0.7835. The first key area of interest might be 0.7790.
A downside break below 0.7790 might call for a drop to 0.7750. Any more losses may possibly open the doors for a move toward 0.7720.
On the upside, the pair could struggle near 0.7875. The first major barrier for bulls is 0.7890. If there is a clear break above 0.7890 and the RSI climbs above 50, the pair could start another increase. In the stated case, it could test 0.7925.
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Whale activity around the Official Trump (TRUMP) token, which is tied to United States President Donald Trump, has hit a five-month high according to on-chain data.
Summary
- Whale wallets holding over 1 million TRUMP tokens have risen to a five-month high of 83, with combined holdings valued at around $3.7 million, according to Santiment.
- TRUMP price has climbed more than 50% from recent lows after a Mar-a-Lago luncheon announcement for top holders, though the token remains over 95% below its all time high.
According to Santiment, there are now 83 wallets that hold more than 1 million Official Trump (TRUMP) tokens. Collectively, these holdings amount to roughly $3.7 million worth of the tokens, marking the highest level recorded since Oct. 8 last year.
TRUMP has remained in a steady downtrend since the start of the year, but activity picked up pace after the project’s team announced a luncheon event at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence, where the U.S. president is expected to host top token holders.
Beyond the main event, those ranked among the top 297 holders are eligible to attend, while the top 29 wallets will qualify for a private reception with the president, subject to background checks.
Several figures across the crypto sector are expected to take part in the gathering, which appears to have driven the recent surge in interest around the token.
Additional data from CoinCarp shows that TRUMP has 642,882 holders, though concentration remains heavily skewed. Over 91% of the supply is held by the top 10 wallets, while roughly 97% sits with the top 100 wallets.
TRUMP started rallying from multi-month lows near $2.7, climbing more than 50% to reach a peak of $4.35. As of press time, the token is up over 26% in the past 7 days, though it remains down more than 95% from its all time high of $73.43.
For TRUMP holders, this pattern is not new. Last year, a similar gala-style event was announced, which saw the token rally sharply in the lead-up.
However, after the initial momentum faded, the token entered a prolonged downtrend, and unless market conditions change meaningfully, the latest event could follow a similar trajectory.
Regulatory concerns remain
While the upcoming event has generated renewed interest among crypto participants, it is also likely to draw scrutiny in Washington, where lawmakers have continued to question whether such initiatives present conflicts of interest.
Last year, Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff called for Trump’s impeachment over the memecoin dinner, while Senators Elizabeth Warren and Adam Schiff urged ethics officials to review the president’s involvement with the event.
Meanwhile, Representative Sam Liccardo introduced the Modern Emoluments and Malfeasance Enforcement (MEME) Act in February 2025, seeking to bar federal officials and their families from issuing or promoting digital assets.
Similar concerns could resurface this time around, as lawmakers have already raised questions over potential foreign influence and financial interests tied to Trump-linked crypto ventures.
Shibarium’s recovery process shows steady progress as indexing levels improve and system stability returns. Network data accuracy remains limited, yet activity continues to build across the ecosystem. Meanwhile, broader developments around Shiba Inu add new context to the current market positioning.
Shibarium indexing recovery gains traction
Shibariumscan reports that 45% of network blocks are now indexed, showing clear progress from earlier levels. This improvement follows ongoing restoration efforts after infrastructure changes. Consequently, the network continues to rebuild visibility across transactions and wallet activity.
Earlier, the team initiated a migration to a new server environment to boost performance and reliability. This move aimed to address system limitations that affected data tracking and user experience. As a result, indexing resumed gradually while stability improved across the network.
However, incomplete indexing still affects the accuracy of key metrics such as total transactions and wallet counts. Users may see partial data until the process reaches completion. Nevertheless, the steady increase signals continued backend recovery and system alignment.
Temporary display issues and network adjustments
At the beginning of the month, users reported missing tokens and NFTs within wallet interfaces and the explorer. These display issues created confusion across parts of the Shiba Inu ecosystem. However, developers linked the problem to indexing delays and a temporary bridge update.
Indexing plays a central role in how blockchain explorers present on-chain data. Without full indexing, systems cannot display complete transaction histories or asset balances. Therefore, partial indexing directly impacts how users interact with network data.
Meanwhile, ongoing updates aim to restore full functionality across the explorer and connected services. The community expects improvements as indexing progresses toward completion. Additionally, future upgrades may strengthen data handling and network performance further.
Broader developments shape Shiba Inu outlook
Beyond technical updates, Shiba Inu has entered discussions around inclusion in a proposed exchange-traded fund. T. Rowe Price submitted plans for an actively managed crypto ETF that includes multiple digital assets. This development places Shiba Inu within a broader institutional framework.
The asset manager oversees significant capital, which adds weight to the filing despite pending regulatory decisions. Inclusion in such a fund could expand exposure to digital assets beyond direct trading platforms. Consequently, it reflects ongoing integration between traditional finance and crypto markets.
At the same time, Shiba Inu price activity remains subdued amid wider market conditions. The token declined slightly over the past day while trading near the lower end of recent ranges. However, macroeconomic factors continue to influence short-term price direction.
The current market focus centers on the Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate expectations. Market data suggests a high probability of unchanged rates within the existing range. As a result, traders position cautiously while awaiting further signals from monetary policy decisions.
Bittensor (TAO) crypto just surged 46% in March. Trading near $277.
The network successfully deployed its Covenant-72B model on Subnet 3. That is not a roadmap promise. It is a live heavy-compute model running on-chain.
The market responded immediately. The subnet-native τemplar token pumped nearly 200% in under a week.
TAO is no longer just a governance play. Actual utility demand is driving this move.
Key Takeaways:
- TAO posts 46% monthly gain driven by Covenant-72B model deployment.
- Subnet 3 activity explodes, pushing the τemplar token up 194% in days.
- Institutional inflow accelerates ahead of potential Grayscale ETF approval.
Covenant-72B: Why This Release Moved the Market
Covenant-72B is a 72 billion parameter large language model. A significant jump from the lighter models Bittensor has run previously. It means the network can now handle enterprise-grade compute loads.
That scale directly impacts validator staking. Running a model this size requires higher quality miner inputs and more TAO staked to secure the bandwidth. Demand for compute on Subnet 3 created direct demand for the collateral backing it. The pricing mechanism worked exactly as designed.
The biggest winner was not TAO itself. It was τemplar, the Subnet 3 native token, which rallied 194% following the deployment. That is the ecosystem feedback loop in action. High-performance subnets attract speculative capital, which deepens liquidity for the miners running there.
Volume backs the move. TAO’s volume-to-market-cap ratio is sitting between 17% and 19%, with over $254 million traded in 24 hours. That is not a thin order book pump. That is real participation.
When subnet tokens outperform the parent chain like this, it typically signals the start of an application layer season for the protocol. That is the next phase traders are positioning for.
TAO Crypto Price Analysis: Can Bulls Breach $300?
TAO is consolidating at $277.49, just below the $300 psychological level. Structure stays bullish as long as $250 holds.
The 46% impulse already flushed weak hands. OI is building. Traders are positioning for a breakout.
Bull case: daily close above $300 opens $350. Grayscale ETF filing provides the fundamental narrative. Volume needs to stay above $250 million daily to keep the momentum alive.
Bear case: rejection at $300 retests $240. If the broader altcoin recovery stalls, TAO could chop sideways for weeks. Watch $265 closely. Lose that level and the immediate breakout setup is invalidated.
The post Bittensor (TAO) Crypto Surges 46% as Covenant-72B Launch Triggers Subnet Explosion appeared first on Cryptonews.
US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) extended their inflow streak to seven consecutive days, marking the longest run since October 2025.
Spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs added $199.4 million on Monday, bringing their seven-day streak to around $1.2 billion, according to data from SoSoValue. The latest inflows suggest continued institutional interest, though total inflows remain far below the roughly $6 billion seen during the October 2025 run.
Total trading volumes fell to $2.6 billion on Monday, while total assets under management in Bitcoin ETFs climbed to $96.7 billion. Net year-to-date flows remain negative, following $1.8 billion in cumulative monthly outflows and $1.7 billion in cumulative inflows.
The ETF rebound has coincided with broader strength in crypto investment products, which drew about $2.7 billion over three straight weeks, lifting year-to-date inflows to roughly $1.2 billion, according to CoinShares.
XRP funds post first gains after eight-day losing streak
Spot altcoin ETFs also saw a broad uptick, led by Ether (ETH) with $138.3 million in inflows, the largest since March 4. Solana (SOL) followed the trend with $17.8 million in inflows, also the biggest since March 4.
XRP (XRP) stood out with $4.64 million inflows, the first gains since March 4. The ETFs saw $56.8 million outflows in the period from March 5-16.
Despite $33.5 million in outflows so far in March, XRP ETFs remain in the green year-to-date, supported by $73.7 million in inflows during January and February.
Solana leads all crypto ETFs year-to-date with $223 million in net inflows.
Related: Bernstein says Bitcoin rebound reflects more resilient long-term holder base
In contrast, Ether ETFs remain underwater, with $364.5 million in year-to-date outflows, following $358.5 million in inflows in March and $723 million in outflows during the first two months of the year.
Magazine: Spot Bitcoin ETFs first green week, crypto ATM losses surge 33%: Hodler’s Digest, Mar. 8 – 14
Bitcoin price fell back under the $74,000 support level after three straight days of gains as investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate cut decision scheduled for later today.
Summary
- Bitcoin price slipped below $74,000 after a three-day rally, as traders booked profits ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision.
- Markets expect the Fed to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, with CME FedWatch showing over 99% probability of no rate cut.
- Bullish technical signals persist, with a triangle breakout and ETF inflows supporting upside, while $76,000 remains key resistance.
After rallying over 7% and touching nearly $76,000 on Tuesday, Bitcoin (BTC) gave up part of its gains, dropping back below the $74,000 support level on Wednesday. Trading at $73,836, the bellwether remains 2.7% lower than its local peak and 24% below its year-to-date high.
Bitcoin price fell as investors booked profits from its recent run before entering wait-and-watch mode ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate cut decision scheduled to be revealed at 2:30 P.M. UTC today.
According to market expectations, the Federal Reserve will likely hold interest rates at 3.50% to 3.75%. This stance is likely due to a surge in inflation from a spike in oil prices, which climbed over $100 per barrel amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran war in the Middle East. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds of the Fed holding the interest rate steady are as high as 98.9%.
Risk assets such as Bitcoin tend to benefit when the Fed cuts interest rates, while they often face pressure when the Federal Reserve decides to hold or increase them to combat sticky inflation.
However, it should be noted that the Fed’s interest rate decision could have already been priced in, and the market could just be taking a breather before resuming its broader trend, as seen during rallies in times of macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty.
For Bitcoin, a key underlying catalyst that could support a potential rebound comes from the continued inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Data from SoSoValue show that the 12 spot BTC ETFs have extended their inflow streak to seven consecutive days, attracting nearly $1.17 billion from institutional investors.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin price has confirmed a breakout from the upper side of a symmetrical triangle pattern, a bullish continuation pattern in technical analysis.
Bitcoin price has also moved above the Supertrend line, which has flipped green, a sign that the short-term momentum is turning positive.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index reading has moved higher to 59 while still having room for more gains before hitting overbought levels at 70, where buying pressure often reaches exhaustion.
For now, traders would be keeping an eye on $76,000, the level BTC failed to breach during its run on Tuesday. A break above the threshold could clear the way to test the $80,000 psychological milestone.
On the contrary, a drop below $73,000 could lead to a shift in sentiment and a deeper retest of support levels near $71,000.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
Crypto World
SIREN Solidifies Top 100 Spot With 300% Monthly Surge, BTC Stalls at $74K: Market Watch
Aside from SIREN, the other double-digit gainer today is M, followed by KAS.
After the recent volatility that drove bitcoin to a six-week peak at $76,000 and the subsequent retracement, the asset has calmed at around $74,000.
Most larger-cap alts are also quite sluggish on a daily scale, but ETH has managed to defend the $2,300 level, while XRP is above $1.50.
BTC Stands Still at $74K
The primary cryptocurrency initiated an impressive leg up last week that culminated on Friday when it touched $74,000 for the second time in the past 10 days. However, the bears were quick to intercept the move and pushed the asset south by almost four grand toward $70,000, especially on Saturday when the US launched another major attack against Iran.
The asset remained above $70,000 during the weekend, and the bulls returned as the new business week began. They helped bitcoin climb toward $74,000 again, where it faced more resistance but ultimately managed to break through on Tuesday morning.
The leg up drove BTC to its highest price level since early February at $76,000. Nevertheless, bitcoin couldn’t keep rising and dipped to $73,500 later that day. The past 18 hours or so have been less eventful, as BTC has remained sideways at around $74,000, where it currently trades as well.
Its market cap stands at $1.480 trillion, while its dominance over the alts on CG is flat at 56.7%.
SIREN Enters Top 100
Ethereum continues to trade above $2,300 despite a minor slip in the past day. XRP is also slightly in the red, but remains north of $1.50. BNB, TRX, ADA, HYPE, and LINK are with minor gains, while SOL, DOGE, and BCH have posted insignificant losses.
XMR, CC, and SKY have dropped the most from the larger-cap alts, while ZEC is up by 3% to $276. SIREN has entered the top 90 alts by market after another double-digit daily surge. The asset has soared by 300% in the past month. M and KAS follow suit with 10% gains.
The total crypto market cap continues to sit above $2.6 trillion on CG.
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