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Bitwise says Circle stock selloff is overdone, eyes $75B valuation by 2030

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Geopolitical shock showed why finance is moving on-chain soon

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says Circle’s 22% post-CLARITY Act selloff is “excessive,” arguing USDC’s payments moat and a $1.9t stablecoin market by 2030 justify a $75b valuation target.

Summary

  • Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan called Circle’s post-regulatory selloff “excessive,” projecting the stablecoin issuer could be worth $75 billion by 2030.
  • Hougan cited Citigroup’s revised forecast that the global stablecoin market could reach $1.9 trillion by 2030, arguing the fundamental growth thesis remains intact.
  • William Blair analysts added that Circle’s cross-border B2B payments utility is undiminished, even as regulatory uncertainty persists around profit-sharing rules.

Bitwise Asset Management pushed back Wednesday against the market’s reaction to Circle’s recent stock plunge, with CIO Matt Hougan arguing that the stablecoin issuer’s valuation could reach $75 billion by 2030 — well above current levels — and that investors are overreacting to legislative noise. According to The Block, Hougan made the remarks in response to Circle’s (CRCL) share price cratering roughly 22% on Monday after a tougher draft of the CLARITY Act raised the prospect of banning stablecoin yield.

Hougan said the pending legislation has not altered the underlying growth logic of the stablecoin market. He pointed to Citigroup’s updated forecast, which revised its 2030 base case for total stablecoin issuance to $1.9 trillion — up from a prior estimate of $1.6 trillion — and set a bull case of $4.0 trillion, citing accelerating adoption by payment networks, corporations, and financial institutions. Hougan stressed that interest income is not the core driver of stablecoin growth, directly countering the market’s primary fear.

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Equity analysts at William Blair echoed the bullish sentiment. In a recent note covered by crypto.news, Blair argued that USDC’s role as a payments “base layer” is being repriced by the market, with Circle’s compliance infrastructure, banking relationships, and cross-chain integrations forming a durable competitive moat — particularly in cross-border B2B payments.

The selloff that prompted Bitwise’s intervention came after the CLARITY Act’s latest draft threatened to restrict stablecoin issuers from distributing yield to holders. The concern is that such a restriction would neutralize one of the key competitive levers that Circle’s rivals use to attract liquidity, though some analysts — including Hougan — argue this could actually advantage Circle by leveling the playing field.

Circle separately froze the USDC balances of 16 business hot wallets late Monday, disrupting operations at several exchanges and platforms, further rattling investor confidence. The move revived longstanding centralization debates around USDC’s architecture, adding to the week’s negative sentiment around the stock.

USDC currently has over $75 billion in circulation, and Circle has processed over $6 trillion in adjusted transaction volume to date. The company reported $1.68 billion in revenue for 2024, the vast majority of it generated through interest on USDC reserves invested in short-term government bonds. Citigroup’s revised $1.9 trillion base-case projection assumes stablecoin issuance will grow at roughly 20% annually through the end of the decade, driven by crypto-native ecosystems, e-commerce adoption, and the substitution of overseas dollar holdings.

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William Blair, which maintains an outperform rating on Circle, noted USDC’s 30-day adjusted transaction volume recently hit nearly $6 trillion — dwarfing Tether’s $1.1 trillion over the same period — as evidence that Circle’s network effects are compounding regardless of short-term regulatory turbulence.

Bitwise’s $75 billion target implies significant upside from Circle’s pre-crash valuation and signals that institutional asset managers view the current dip as a buying opportunity rather than a structural break. The firm’s argument, in essence, is that stablecoins will grow with or without yield — and that Circle is best positioned to capture that growth.

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DeFi Generated $8 Billion in Onchain Yield in 2025: Analysis

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DeFi Generated $8 Billion in Onchain Yield in 2025: Analysis

A breakdown of DeFi’s yield sources reveals that borrowing demand, trading fees, and funding rates drove the bulk of returns, while more than half of stablecoin deposits in the Ethereum ecosystem are earning less than U.S. Treasuries.

Decentralized finance (DeFi) produced roughly $8 billion in onchain yield in 2025, according to a detailed analysis published by researcher Vadym that maps the full spectrum of where DeFi returns actually originate. The breakdown reveals that yield is abundant in aggregate but unevenly distributed, often circular, and in many cases difficult to package into structured products.

The findings land as yields across DeFi have dried up. Borrowing rates on major lending platforms have converged with the Federal Reserve’s policy rate, and “safe” stablecoin supply rates now average roughly 3% — below U.S. Treasuries and the Secured Overnight Financing Rate. On Aave, the 30-day average yield on USDC and USDT sits around 2%. Out of more than $20 billion in stablecoin vaults across Ethereum and its Layer 2s, 58% of TVL is earning under 3% APY, the report notes.

Where the $8 Billion Comes From

The analysis identifies five primary yield sources, each with distinct risk profiles and scalability constraints.

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AMM trading fees were the largest single category at roughly $4.2 billion, with Uniswap, Meteora, and Raydium accounting for 62% of the total. But the analysis cautions that these fees are notoriously difficult to capture in structured products. Liquidity providers — particularly those using concentrated liquidity — frequently lose money to toxic order flow, and LP-manager vaults have failed to gain meaningful traction.

Borrow interest generated approximately $1.76 billion across money markets, including Aave, Morpho, Spark, Maple and Fluid. Money markets account for more than 60% of total DeFi TVL, making lending the sector’s economic backbone. However, the analysis found that roughly half of all borrowing demand is recursive — users borrowing to loop back into other yield sources, such as liquid staking tokens or yield-bearing stablecoins. On Aave’s Ethereum deployment, about 39% of borrowing demand goes toward leveraging ETH staking rewards, while another 11.6% loops Ethena’s sUSDe.

Perps funding fees, largely pioneered onchain by Ethena, contributed around $300 million. Ethena’s sUSDe derives its yield from staking rewards and short funding rates — a mechanism that drew both praise and alarm when it launched in 2024.

Real-world assets generated an estimated $600–900 million, with U.S. Treasuries holding the largest share of the RWA market at about 41% and private credit at 25%.

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Network staking rewards and MEV comprise the remainder, with Ethereum’s issuance totaling roughly one million ETH in 2025. The MEV-derived portion of staking yield has been trending downward as private order flow routing — now handling about 90% of swaps — has reduced frontrunning opportunities.

Untapped and Underdeveloped Sources

The analysis also highlights categories where yield capture remains negligible. Insurance underwriting generated just $5.5 million in premiums in 2025, mostly through Nexus Mutual. Options — despite CeFi open interest of $30–50 billion — have roughly $1.8 billion in onchain OI with no breakout structured product. Volatility selling and protocol risk transfer remain largely untapped, which the analysis flags as a potential opportunity as risk curation grows more competitive.

Sky’s Balancing Act

As a case study in how protocols assemble these disparate yield sources, the analysis examines Sky (formerly MakerDAO), whose 3.75% USDS Savings Rate has attracted significant capital amid the compression. Sky’s TVL surged 38% in March, making it the fourth-largest DeFi protocol, with the sUSDS savings pool alone accounting for approximately $6.5 billion in deposits.

The breakdown reveals that approximately 70% of Sky’s income derives from offchain origination — primarily USDC earning Coinbase rewards through the peg stability module (PSM), and RWA exposure through products like BlackRock’s BUIDL and Janus Henderson funds. The remaining 30% flows from onchain sources, with Spark acting as Sky’s primary allocation arm, routing capital into Sparklend, Maple’s institutional lending, Anchorage, and other yield-bearing opportunities depending on prevailing rates.

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The implication, the analysis argues, is that even as TradFi yield increasingly flows through permissioned channels, its redistribution happens onchain, providing a floor for DeFi rates and potentially setting the stage for a next generation of yield derivatives, including fixed-rate products, interest-rate swaps and structured tranches.

This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.

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US Lawmakers Hold Hearing on Tokenized Real-World Assets

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SEC, United States, RWA, RWA Tokenization

Crypto industry executives on Wednesday told the US House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services that existing investor protections and financial surveillance regulations should apply to tokenized securities.

The hearing was held as legislators consider the Capital Markets Technology Modernization Act of 2026 and are exploring the impact of asset tokenization on capital markets and the “need to balance innovation with investor protection and market integrity,” according to a statement by panel chairman, Representative French Hill.

Tokenized real-world assets (RWA), traditional financial instruments represented by tokens on blockchain networks, reduce transaction costs and settlement times, Summer Mersinger, CEO of crypto advocacy organization Blockchain Association, told the committee.

“By replacing flawed manual record-keeping processes with more transparent timestamps and stamped records, tokenization lowers the cost and re-imagines US financial markets,” she said.  

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SEC, United States, RWA, RWA Tokenization
Blockchain Association CEO Summer Mersinger outlines the benefits of RWA tokenization for US lawmakers. Source: GOP Financial Services Committee

Mersinger and the other witnesses agreed that existing securities laws apply to tokenized instruments, arguing that the technology and the medium used to record securities transactions do not fundamentally alter investor protection laws or jurisdictional oversight.

Supporters of RWA tokenization contend the technology removes intermediaries from the settlement and clearing process, reducing transaction costs and improving capital velocity by introducing near-instant settlement times. 

AML provisions and sanctions compliance remain lawmaker priority

Lawmakers questioned the panel about how tokenized asset issuers and platforms could enforce know-your-customer (KYC) checks, anti-money laundering provisions, and sanctions compliance.

Illinois Representative Bill Foster asked: “Once things are tokenized, are they going to be treated on a private, permissioned blockchain, or a variety of public blockchains, which often allow anonymous participation through self-hosted wallets?” 

SEC, United States, RWA, RWA Tokenization
Representative Bill Foster questions the panel about anti-money laundering provisions and financial surveillance techniques. Source: GOP Financial Services Committee

John Zecca, Nasdaq executive vice president and global chief legal, risk, and regulatory officer, told Foster that the exchange can collect KYC information at the protocol level because its system runs on a permissioned blockchain network.

Christian Sabella, managing director and deputy general counsel of the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC), the world’s largest clearinghouse company, said it was also possible to embed identifying information at the token level.

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These identifiers would be immutable and would remain regardless of whether the RWA token was trading on a permissioned or a permissionless network, Sabella added. 

SEC, United States, RWA, RWA Tokenization
DTCC executive Christian Sabella explains how RWA tokens could be surveilled. Source: GOP Financial Services Committee

Salman Banaei, general counsel for Plume Network, a permissionless RWA-focused blockchain, said the network embeds anti-money laundering (AML) and sanctions compliance checks at the token level, which allows tokens to be frozen.

However, Banaei told Foster that government regulators do not yet have a technological solution to identify wash trades or identify market participants with 100% confidence.

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