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BTC climbs above $70,000 as Bernstein makes bull case

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BTC climbs above $70,000 as Bernstein makes bull case

Breaking a familiar pattern, bitcoin is on the rise during the U.S. session, climbing to $70,800 after falling to just above $68,000 earlier in the day.

Bitcoin is now higher by 0.5% over the past 24 hours, with ether , XRP and solana ahead closer to 1.5% over the same time frame.

Risk assets are generally in the green on Monday, with the Nasdaq up 1% and the S&P 500 up 0.5%. Gold is ahead 1.9% to $5,075 per ounce, and silver is up 7.4% to $82.50 per ounce.

“What we are experiencing is the weakest bitcoin bear case in its history,” wrote Bernstein’s Gautam Chhugani, reiterating the firm’s $150,000 year-end price target on bitcoin.

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“When all stars are aligned, [the] Bitcoin community manufactures a self-imposed crisis of confidence,” Chhugani continued. “Nothing blew up, no skeletons will unravel; [the] media is back again to write an obituary.”

“Time,” said Chhugani, “remains a flat circle on Bitcoin.”

Getting a bit more technical, Schwab’s Jim Ferraioli said it is helpful to look to bitcoin miners to determine when the bottom is in.

“Previous selloffs have usually bottomed near bitcoin’s cost of production,” said Ferraioli. “Miners with less efficient equipment will often shut down operations temporarily … We can see this in real time by watching the mining difficulty adjustment — as more miners leave the network, difficulty falls. Once it starts to rise again, that is confirmation the bottom may be in.”

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Indeed, CoinDesk reported earlier that bitcoin mining difficulty just dropped by its largest amount since 2021 as at least some miners did capitulate to plunging prices.

Crypto stocks move higher

Crypto platform Bullish (BLSH) is leading the sector higher on Monday with a 14..2% gain. Other big advancers include Galaxy Digital (GLXY), up 8.2% and Circle Financial (CRCL), up 5.1%. Strategy (MSTR) is up 3% and Coinbase (COIN) 1%.

Bitcoin miners who have pivoted to AI infrastructure are posting large gains as well as Morgan Stanley initiated positive coverage on TeraWulf (WULF) and Cipher Mining (CIFR) — both are up 14%. Hut 8 (HUT), IREN (IREN) and Bitfarms (BITF) are each ahead about 7%.

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Strategy hasn’t sold any STRC shares despite advertising on X

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Strategy hasn't sold any STRC shares despite advertising on X

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has been using its X marketing budget to advertise STRC, its quasi-pegged, 11.25% dividend-yielding preferred share. Unfortunately, that expensive, direct response ad campaign didn’t yield any results for shareholders last week.

For the week of February 2-8, Strategy didn’t sell any new shares of STRC nor any other preferred shares. It only succeeded in taking out the bid on its common stock, MSTR, to raise capital from its so-called at-the-market (ATM) shareholder dilution program.

Worse, its ad campaign didn’t yield any results in the prior week. From January 26 to February 1, the company failed to sell any preferred shares.

BTC yield growth slows despite STRC ads

Ultimately, what matters to shareholders of Michael Saylor’s bitcoin (BTC) acquisition entity is whether or not its management can sustainably increase BTC per share over time on a dilution-adjusted basis.

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Although Strategy succeeded at generating BTC yield in prior years, its recent progress has slowed to a crawl.

After an impressive 7.3% in 2023, 74.3% in 2024, and 22.8% in 2025, the company was only able to accrete 0.3% BTC per share of MSTR in January 2026. 

Unfortunately, its last two weeks of pure dilution of MSTR at a basic multiple-to-Net Asset Value (mNAV) below 1x, with no success at selling non-dilutive preferred shares over the past two weeks, will not improve that BTC yield number.

Worse, its average purchase price last week of $76,056 per BTC — and an even worse $87,974 the prior week — is continuing to lose money for the company based on the current market price for BTC closer to $70,000. 

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Read more: 100% of Strategy’s convertible debt is now out-of-the-money

Indeed, its entire investment return on its $54 billion investment is decidedly negative.

The company paid an average of more than $76,000 apiece for its BTC — more than 8% higher than BTC’s current value.

Strategy pays for the X Premium Business Full Access tier, currently priced at $10,000 per year, to secure its gold checkmark and affiliate employees under a clickable Strategy logo.

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Because this package includes a credit for X ad spend, it’s unknown how much new money Strategy outlayed, if any, to pay for its disappointing STRC ad campaign.

Got a tip? Send us an email securely via Protos Leaks. For more informed news, follow us on X, Bluesky, and Google News, or subscribe to our YouTube channel.

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European Commission Moves to Impose Interim Measures on Meta’s WhatsApp AI Ban

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21Shares Introduces JitoSOL ETP to Offer Staking Rewards via Solana

TLDR

  • The European Commission intends to impose interim measures on Meta over its exclusion of third-party AI assistants from WhatsApp.
  • The Commission believes Meta’s actions breach EU antitrust laws, potentially harming competition in the AI market.
  • Teresa Ribera emphasized the need for swift action to prevent dominant companies from using unfair advantages.
  • Meta argues that the WhatsApp API is not a key distribution channel for AI assistants and denies antitrust violations.
  • The EU has previously fined Apple, Meta, and Google for breaching various competition and data protection regulations.

The European Commission has announced its intention to impose interim measures against Meta for excluding third-party AI assistants from WhatsApp. The Commission believes Meta’s actions breach EU antitrust rules. An ongoing investigation will determine the final decision, with Meta being given the opportunity to defend itself.

EU Signals Preliminary Action Against Meta’s WhatsApp Policy

According to a CNBC report, the European Commission informed Meta of its preliminary view that the company violated EU antitrust regulations. The Commission stated that Meta’s policy change, which bans third-party AI assistants from WhatsApp, could harm competition in the AI market.

In response, the Commission warned that it may quickly impose interim measures to prevent this policy from irreparably damaging competition in Europe. The Commission emphasized that the rapid development of AI markets requires swift action to preserve access for competitors.

The Commission’s Commissioner for Competition, Teresa Ribera, highlighted the need for fair competition in digital markets. She said, “We need to prevent dominant tech companies from leveraging their position to harm competitors.” Ribera emphasized that Meta’s new policy could give it an unfair advantage, impacting smaller companies and AI assistants in the market. These measures aim to ensure that competitors can still access WhatsApp while the investigation proceeds.

Meta’s Response to EU Investigation

Meta responded to the Commission’s claims, arguing that there was no need for EU intervention in the WhatsApp Business API. A Meta spokesperson stated that people can still access AI assistants from app stores and other platforms. “The WhatsApp Business API is not a key distribution channel for these chatbots,” the spokesperson added. Meta maintains that its updated policy does not violate antitrust regulations.

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The company further explained that AI options are widely available outside of WhatsApp. It also criticized the Commission’s logic, stating that the WhatsApp API does not significantly impact the distribution of AI assistants. However, the EU’s investigation will continue to examine the matter, with interim measures under consideration until a final ruling is made.

This move comes amid a broader pattern of fines imposed on U.S. tech companies by the European Union. In April, Apple was fined 500 million euros for breaching anti-steering obligations. That same month, Meta was fined 200 million euros for failing to offer users a service that uses less personal data. In September, Google faced a massive 2.95 billion euro fine for breaching EU competition laws.

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Bitcoin, Ethereum, Crypto News & Price Indexes

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Bitcoin, Ethereum, Crypto News & Price Indexes

Key points:

  • Bitcoin’s relief rally is facing selling near $72,000, but a positive sign is that the bulls have not ceded much ground to the bears.

  • Several major altcoins are facing selling at higher levels, indicating that the sentiment remains negative.

Bitcoin (BTC) has slipped closer to $69,500, indicating that the bears are selling on rallies. Several analysts believe that BTC’s bottom is still not in. Trader BitBull said in a post on X that BTC’s “real bottom will form below $50,000, where most of the ETF buyers will be underwater.”

A different view point was put forth by crypto sentiment platform Santiment. In a report on Saturday, the Santiment team said that data suggests the fall to $60,000 may have been a genuine bottom. However, for a sustained recovery, the market has to sustain above the key support level, and whales must continue their tentative accumulation.

Crypto market data daily view. Source: TradingView

Another positive for the bulls is that the BTC Sharpe ratio has fallen to -10, which historically indicates the final phases of bear markets, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost. Although the readings do not confirm that the bear market is over, it indicates that the risk-to-reward profile may be reaching extreme levels.

Could BTC and the major altcoins start a strong relief rally, or will the downtrend resume? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out. 

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S&P 500 Index price prediction

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) fell below the ascending channel pattern on Thursday, but the bulls could not sustain the lower levels.

SPX daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The index came roaring back on Friday and surged above the moving averages. That shows the break below the channel may have been a bear trap. The bulls will attempt to push the price to the resistance line, where the bears are expected to step in.

The 20-day exponential moving average (6,917) is flattening out, and the relative strength index (RSI) is just above the midpoint, signaling a balance between supply and demand. A close above the resistance line might start the next leg of the uptrend toward 7,290.

US Dollar Index price prediction

The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose above the 20-day EMA (97.67) on Thursday, but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels.

DXY daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The price plunged sharply below the 20-day EMA on Monday, signaling that the bears are attempting to take control. There is strong support in the 96.21 to 95.51 support zone, but if the bears prevail, the index might collapse to 91.88.

Instead, if the price turns up sharply from the current level or the support zone and rises above the moving averages, it signals that the index might extend its stay inside the 96.21 to 100.54 range for some more time.

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Bitcoin price prediction

BTC’s recovery is stalling just below the breakdown level of $74,508, indicating that the bears are attempting to flip the level into resistance.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The downsloping 20-day EMA ($78,142) and the RSI in the negative territory indicate an advantage to sellers. If the price turns down from $74,508 or the 20-day EMA, the bears will again strive to pull the BTC/USDT pair toward $60,000.

This negative view will be invalidated in the near term if the Bitcoin price breaks above the 20-day EMA. That suggests solid buying at lower levels. The pair may then rally toward the 50-day SMA ($86,636).

Ether price prediction

Ether’s (ETH) relief rally is facing selling at the $2,111 level, but a positive sign is that the bulls have not ceded much ground to the bears.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

If the price decisively closes above the $2,111 level, the ETH/USDT pair may climb to the 20-day EMA ($2,447). This is a crucial resistance to watch out for, as a break above it suggests that the bearish momentum has weakened. The Ether price may then rise to the 50-day SMA ($2,877).

Sellers will have to aggressively defend the $2,111 level to retain their advantage. If they do that, the $1,750 level may be at risk of breaking down. The pair may then slump to $1,537.

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BNB price prediction

BNB’s (BNB) relief rally is facing selling near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $676, indicating a negative sentiment.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

If the price slips below $602, the bears will attempt to yank the BNB/USDT pair below the $570 support. If they manage to do that, the pair may plummet to $500. 

Contrarily, if bulls push the BNB price above $676, the pair may ascend to the breakdown level of $730. Sellers are expected to defend the $730 to $790 zone as a break above it suggests that the bulls are back in the game. The pair might then surge to the 50-day SMA ($849).

XRP price prediction

Buyers have maintained XRP (XRP) above the support line of the descending channel pattern but are struggling to push the price to the 20-day EMA ($1.63).

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

If the price turns down and breaks below the support line, it indicates that the bears remain in charge. The XRP/USDT pair may then retest the $1.11 level. Buyers are expected to defend the $1.11 level with all their might, as a break below it may sink the pair to $1 and then to $0.75.

Buyers will have to propel the XRP price above the 20-day EMA to gain the upper hand in the short term. The pair may then march toward the downtrend line. A close above the downtrend line suggests the start of a new up move.

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Solana price prediction

Solana’s (SOL) relief rally is facing selling just below the breakdown level of $95, indicating that the bears are attempting to flip the level into resistance.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

If the Solana price continues lower and breaks below $77, it suggests that the bears remain in command. The SOL/USDT pair may then retest the $67 level, which is likely to act as a strong support.

Sellers are expected to defend the zone between the 20-day EMA ($104) and the $95 level, as a close above it signals that the bulls are back in the driver’s seat. The pair may then march toward the 50-day SMA ($123).

Related: Bitcoin whales took advantage of $60K price dip, scooping up 40K BTC

Dogecoin price prediction

Sellers are attempting to halt Dogecoin’s (DOGE) relief rally at the psychological level of $0.10.

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DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

If the Dogecoin price turns down from the current level, it increases the possibility of a break below the $0.08 level. The DOGE/USDT pair may then resume its downtrend and nosedive to $0.06.

Time is running out for the bulls. They will have to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.11) to suggest that the bearish momentum is weakening. The pair may then march toward the $0.13 level.

Cardano price prediction

Cardano’s (ADA) shallow bounce off the support line of the descending channel pattern indicates that the bears are selling on rallies.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

If the Cardano price turns down from the current level, the bears will again attempt to tug the ADA/USDT pair below the support line. If they can pull it off, the pair may collapse to the next support at $0.20.

Conversely, a break above the 20-day EMA ($0.30) suggests that the pair may remain inside the channel for some more time. The buyers will gain the upper hand on a close above the downtrend line. The pair may then ascend to the breakdown level of $0.50.

Bitcoin Cash price prediction

Bitcoin Cash’s (BCH) relief rally is facing resistance at the 20-day EMA ($543), indicating a bearish sentiment.

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BCH/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

If the price continues lower and breaks below $497, it suggests that the bears remain in control. The BCH/USDT pair may then drop toward the crucial support at $443, where the buyers are expected to step in.

On the upside, the bulls will have to push and maintain the price above the 20-day EMA to negate the bearish view. If they do that, the Bitcoin Cash price may climb to the 50-day SMA ($585).