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BTC/USD Analysis: Are the Bulls Stirring?

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BTC/USD Analysis: Are the Bulls Stirring?

According to media reports, Bitcoin’s fall from its all-time high in October 2025 to February’s low near $60k triggered the largest outflow from spot Bitcoin ETF funds since their launch in January 2024.

Glassnode data show that more than 100,000 BTC were withdrawn from these funds in January alone, though the total remains substantial, with roughly 1.25 million coins still held on balance sheets.

Analysing trading volumes on Coinbase, however, reveals a trend of declining activity (as indicated by the arrow). From a long-term perspective, this may suggest the ETF outflow trend is easing, potentially allowing the market to resume its multi-year uptrend. How plausible is this scenario?

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD

Bitcoin’s price fluctuations are currently compressing between the thick lines on the chart – a sign of market stabilisation, where supply and demand appear balanced.

Notable bullish patterns include:

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  • A double bottom (A1–B1) on 11–12 February, aligning with the lower boundary of the long-term descending channel.
  • A second double bottom (A2–B2) on 18–19 February, featuring a slightly lower secondary low.

In the short term, traders might anticipate a rebound towards the upper boundary of the triangle. While the descending channel remains relevant, a decisive bullish break of this consolidation pattern would signal improving sentiment in the crypto market following February’s panic selling.

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Crypto World

Tennessee Judge Blocks State Crackdown on Kalshi Markets

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Adoption, CFTC, Legislation, United States, Prediction Markets

A US federal judge in Tennessee temporarily blocked the state from enforcing its gambling laws against prediction markets operator Kalshi’s sports event contracts. 

The ruling, issued by Judge Aleta Trauger of the US District Court for the Middle District of Tennessee on Thursday, allows Kalshi to continue offering sports-related event contracts to users in the state while its lawsuit against Tennessee regulators proceeds.

Trauger found that Kalshi is likely to succeed on the merits of its claim that federal commodities law preempts Tennessee’s attempt to regulate its sports markets as illegal gambling. 

The court concluded that Kalshi’s sports event contracts are “swaps” under the Commodity Exchange Act, over which the law grants the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) exclusive jurisdiction, and held that Tennessee’s enforcement efforts are likely preempted under conflict preemption principles. 

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Adoption, CFTC, Legislation, United States, Prediction Markets
Preliminary injunction, Kalshi. Source: CourtListener

The injunction applies to the identified state officials, while the Tennessee Sports Wagering Council itself was dismissed on sovereign immunity grounds, and Kalshi was ordered to post a $500,000 bond.

Long-running clash with states

The Tennessee case marks another chapter in a broader clash over how to treat event contracts in the United States.

An earlier temporary restraining order from Trauger had already paused enforcement of Tennessee’s cease-and-desist letter, which alleged that Kalshi was operating unlicensed sports wagering, ordered it to stop offering sports event contracts to customers in Tennessee, void those contracts and refund deposits, and threatened fines and further legal action. 

Related: Nevada court hits Polymarket with temporary restraining order, tests CFTC control

Kalshi has similarly gone to federal court in multiple states, including Nevada, New Jersey, and Connecticut, over cease-and-desist actions targeting its event markets, with courts reaching divergent conclusions on whether to grant preliminary relief.

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CFTC steps in to defend prediction markets

​The injunction also lands against a shifting federal backdrop, as the CFTC moves to assert primacy over prediction markets.

In a video message on Tuesday, CFTC Chair Michael Selig said the agency had filed a friend-of-the-court brief to defend its “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets, warning state authorities that the commission would meet them in court if they tried to undermine federal oversight of these derivative markets.

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