The market remains gripped by extreme fear. Many Bitcoin investors focus only on short-term price fluctuations and fixate on negative factors. As a result, they overlook strong underlying fundamentals.

Although the price may be correcting, the following data reinforces the case for a recovery.

Lightning Network Growth Despite a Sharp Bitcoin Price Decline

Bitcoin’s price has fallen sharply. However, its use as a payment network has reached an all-time high, as reflected in breakthrough data from the Lightning Network.

The Lightning Network is a Layer 2 protocol built on top of Bitcoin. It enables scalable, low-cost, and near-instant transactions, making it ideal for everyday payments.

Data from Newhedge shows that Bitcoin Lightning Network capacity rose to a record high of 5,800 BTC in December. It remained above 5,600 BTC in early 2026.

Capacity (blue) represents the total amount of Bitcoin locked in Lightning Network payment channels. For the Lightning Network to function, participants must commit BTC to channels in advance. This committed BTC forms the network’s capacity.

Therefore, capacity determines the total value that can be transacted through the Lightning Network at any given time. An increase signals improvements in scalability, reliability, and user adoption.

In addition, a recent report from River revealed that the Lightning Network surpassed $1 billion in monthly transaction volume for the first time. It processed 5.22 million transactions. This growth indicates that businesses and exchanges are using Lightning to move real funds.

“While everyone is focused on Bitcoin dropping to $63K, something happened last week that nobody talked about. The Lightning Network crossed $1 billion in monthly transaction volume for the first time ever… Businesses are using it,” said Fernando Nikolić, a developer at Perception.

Sam Wouters, Director of Marketing at River, explained that most transactions involve transfers between exchanges, often with large amounts. He predicted that in the future, the emergence of AI agents could reduce the average transaction size when executing many small transactions.

Hashrate Recovery Reflects Renewed Miner Confidence

Second, Bitcoin’s hashrate—an important metric that measures the network’s total computational power—has recovered to levels equivalent to September last year, when BTC traded above $100,000.

The strong V-shaped recovery in February shows that miners have returned with renewed confidence. It also strengthens the network’s security and resilience.

Miners appear to have moved past extreme negative sentiment. They have restarted operations after severe weather disruptions earlier in the year.

Historically, hashrate tends to rise alongside Bitcoin’s price. This pattern often signals a potential recovery in BTC.

The Sign of Strengthening Demand From US Investors

Third, the Coinbase Premium Index turned positive again in the final week of the month after remaining negative for a full month.

The Coinbase Premium Index measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and on Binance. A return to positive territory reflects that US investors are willing to buy BTC at higher prices.

“This return to positive territory suggests a gradual improvement in demand from professional and institutional participants, particularly those based in the United States. This signal remains tentative and reflects ongoing investor caution. However, current price levels appear to be gradually becoming attractive again for professional participants,” commented Darkfost, an analyst at CryptoQuant.

These positive signals may appear faint amid prevailing pessimism. However, they could act as catalysts for a recovery.

Recent analysis from BeInCrypto emphasized that a breakout above the $67,394 resistance level would improve the negative short-term price structure. Such a move would lay the foundation for further upside.

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has paused after a modest rally, carving an eight-day high while building a double bottom near $62,500. Despite the bounce, the token remains roughly 21% below its level from a month ago, underscoring the uphill path for bulls entering Friday’s massive options expiry. The $10.5 billion BTC options series looms large, with traders weighing whether a late bid can flip momentum or if selling pressure resumes as settlement approaches. Deribit continues to lead the space, accounting for about 76% of turnover, while OKX and CME register smaller but meaningful shares. In this environment, price action, tech-equity sentiment and macro developments converge to shape outcomes as traders position for what could be a pivotal weekend for BTC.

Key takeaways

• Bulls face a required roughly 9% rally from around $68,800 to tilt the balance in Friday’s $10.5 billion options expiry, underscoring how a single session can redefine near-term momentum.
• The asset’s price dynamics remain tightly linked to tech sentiment, with Bitcoin showing a 90% correlation to the Nasdaq 100 Index, signaling that AI-driven earnings and risk appetite in equities can spill into crypto flows.
• Deribit dominates the derivatives landscape with about $4.5 billion in call options and $3.4 billion in put options, roughly three-quarters of the total market, followed by OKX and CME as secondary venues.
• Put options appear structurally resilient, and a substantial portion of call bets would expire worthless if BTC stays below $70,000 on Friday, highlighting skew toward downside protection in the event of a renewed pullback.
• Analysts point to a distribution of open interest across strikes that suggests potential tail-risk hedges around $60k–$75k, with three plausible expiry outcomes by price band (65k–69k, 69k–71k, 71k–74k).

Tickers mentioned: $BTC, $NVDA

Sentiment: Neutral

Price impact: Neutral. The setup points to several potential expiry outcomes rather than a clear directional edge, pending Friday’s settlement.

Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. Given the mixed signals and the dependency on the Friday expiry, a cautious stance remains prudent until price action clarifies the balance of risk.

Market context: The crypto complex continues to absorb climate-driven moves from equities, especially where AI-driven growth and large-cap tech results drive risk sentiment. The link between BTC and the Nasdaq suggests liquidity and sentiment could hinge on tech earnings and macro developments in the near term.

Why it matters

The proximity of a major options expiry adds a layer of probabilistic dynamics to BTC’s price path. If Friday’s settlement tilts the risk-reward balance toward puts, downside pressure could re-emerge, even if a broader macro backdrop improves later in the week. Conversely, a decisive rally back toward the mid-$70,000s could unlock renewed upside potential as hedges unwind and bullish bets reassert themselves. This interplay matters for traders betting on short-term volatility, for market-makers managing gamma exposure, and for investors watching risk parity dynamics across asset classes.

Beyond the technical setup, the influence of Nvidia’s earnings on risk appetite cannot be overstated. The company’s results, released after the market close, intersect with the AI sector’s broader profitability trajectory and margins, which have been a critical driver of forward-looking confidence in tech equities. A robust AI narrative tends to buoy liquidity across risk assets, including crypto, while disappointing guidance can deepen risk-off moves that weigh on BTC and related tokens. This cross-asset feedback loop helps explain why the BTC-iShares Nasdaq relationship remains a meaningful lens for traders assessing near-term catalysts.

In the backdrop, the derivative structure reveals a cautious stance among market participants. The largest share of put exposure sits below the current price, while still substantial upside hedges exist at higher strikes. This composition means that even if the spot moves higher, a portion of the derivative book remains positioned to dampen exuberance, reflecting a pragmatic approach to risk management as traders await Friday’s definitive outcome.

What to watch next

• Friday’s BTC options expiry outcomes by price band (65,000–69,000; 69,000–71,000; 71,000–74,000) and the resulting net tilt between puts vs. calls.
• Shifts in Deribit’s open interest and any reallocation of market share among OKX and CME after settlement.
• The Nvidia earnings release and any revised guidance that could alter AI-driven risk sentiment.
• BTC price action around the 60,000 and 75,000 levels and any validation of the upper and lower bounds suggested by the current option structure.

Sources & verification

• Bitcoin price action and the eight-day high with a double bottom near $62,500 as markets digest the upcoming expiry.
• Deribit’s market share and the breakdown of $4.5 billion in calls and $3.4 billion in puts.
• OKX and CME derivatives volumes: approximately $610 million in calls / $385 million in puts (OKX) and $255 million in calls / $287 million in puts (CME).
• Nvidia’s earnings outcomes and their potential impact on risk appetite for AI-related growth stocks.
• The observed 90% correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 Index, illustrating the tech-led sentiment linkage.

Bitcoin options expiry tests bulls as AI-driven sentiment sways risk assets

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) drifted to an eight-day peak as traders prepared for what could be a defining week for risk assets. A double bottom near the $62,500 zone offered a technical foothold, yet the asset remains about 21% below its level from a month earlier, underscoring the uphill climb for bulls ahead of Friday’s $10.5 billion options expiry. The event is more than a headline risk; it is a liquidity and risk-management inflection point that can shape the near-term trajectory for BTC. Deribit remains the dominant venue, commanding roughly three-quarters of the market with approximately $4.5 billion in call options and $3.4 billion in puts, while OKX and CME hold meaningful but smaller roles in the overall turnover. The market is balancing the lure of a potential rebound against the probability of further volatility driven by macro cues and tech-sector performance.

The derivatives landscape reveals a nuanced stance: although puts appear structurally well-positioned to absorb bearish shocks, a meaningful chunk of neutral-to-bullish positions was unsettled by BTC’s retreat below $75,000 in February. Data show that about 88% of Deribit’s call options would expire worthless if BTC remains under $70,000 on Friday, a statistic that underscores the risk premium baked into the expiring contracts. Even after stripping out extreme multi-leg strategies—often used to chase higher strikes—roughly 37% of the remaining bets sit below $75,000, implying that a robust rally is required to flip the balance in favor of bulls before expiry.

The balance of power in the larger market hinges on the broader tech narrative. The recent correlation suggests that as the Nasdaq moves, BTC tends to follow, at least in the near term. Nvidia (EXCHANGE: NVDA) looms large as a proxy for AI-driven demand and corporate margins; its earnings outcome, due after the close, could tilt risk appetite and inject further volatility into both equities and crypto. While Bitcoin’s path remains sensitive to the tech-driven risk-on/risk-off cycle, the current setup highlights that a decisive move would be necessary to overcome the accumulated option-based hedges and usher in a renewed upside trajectory.

Three plausible expiry outcomes emerge from the current price trajectory. If BTC trades between $65,000 and $69,000, puts have the edge by about $1.15 billion. In the $69,001–$71,000 range, puts would still dominate by roughly $845 million. If BTC finishes the week between $71,001 and $74,000, demand appears skewed toward puts with about $470 million in net exposure. Taken together, the data point to a scenario where a sustained rally beyond the current price is needed to shift the narrative, even as hedging structures offer a guardrail for contrarian bets. The dynamic nature of the option book means traders should stay vigilant for shifts in open interest across the major venues as Friday’s settlement approaches.

The interplay between crypto and traditional markets remains the defining feature of this period. While BTC can diverge from equities on longer horizons, the near-term linkage—especially via tech earnings and AI sentiment—continues to imprint volatility and liquidity conditions on the space. As the expiry nears, market participants will be watching not only the price levels but also how the hedges evolve in Deribit, OKX, and CME to determine the probable path for BTC in the days ahead.

Historically, whale inflows coincide with sensitive price phases and potentially influence XRP’s short-term market direction.

Amid a broader market uptick, XRP posted a modest 3% increase over the past 24 hours. There has also been a notable surge in token whale inflows to Binance.

The 30-day average of large wallet transfers to the exchange has risen to roughly 2.54 billion XRP, which signals renewed activity from major holders after a previous period of relative decline.

XRP Whale Inflows Spike

Daily whale inflows currently hover around 50 million XRP, which is indicative of ongoing engagement, though not as intense as the peaks observed in mid-2025. The whale flow metric, which tracks coins moving from large wallets to exchanges, is often used to gauge potential changes in the supply available for trading. Rising inflows can indicate that whales are repositioning, whether for selling, leveraging assets as collateral in derivatives, or preparing for increased trading activity.

CryptoQuant stated that the recent increase in the monthly average points to a gradual buildup rather than a single large transfer. In previous cases, higher whale inflows have coincided with sensitive phases in XRP’s price, sometimes preceding corrections due to added supply.

Other times it has signaled potential volatility, whether upward or downward.

As such, if spot demand remains weak, higher inflows could contribute to selling pressure, whereas if liquidity improves and market participation grows, the flows might reflect strategic repositioning by whales ahead of potential price movements.

Bears Still In Control

Against the backdrop of increased whale inflows and a slight price appreciation, data still show signs of bearish pressure. Analyst CasiTrades recently observed that the recent trendline break is forming resistance, and with the price dropping below the previous B-wave low, attention has shifted toward support levels at $1.11 and $0.87.

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Local resistance around $1.40 remains significant, and as long as XRP trades below it, downward momentum may continue. She also added that the current phase is still a no-trade zone, and meaningful entries will only likely occur if lower supports are reached or if price flips above the $1.65 macro resistance.

On the institutional side of things, US spot XRP ETFs remained subdued. According to the data compiled by SoSoValue, no net inflows or outflows were recorded on February 20 and 23. On February 24, Bitwise’s XRP ETF bucked the trend with $3 million in inflows.

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin bulls need a 9% rally from current levels to take the advantage in Friday’s $10.5 billion options expiry.

• The 90% correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 Index shows that tech investor sentiment drives market confidence.

Bitcoin (BTC) price surged to an eight-day high on Wednesday, successfully forming a double bottom near the $62,500 level. Despite these recent gains, Bitcoin price remains 21% lower than it was one month ago, suggesting bulls are unlikely to come out ahead during Friday’s $10.5 billion monthly BTC options expiry. Whether bulls can flip the tables at the last minute and shift momentum back in their favor remains up in the air.

Deribit remains the dominant leader with a 76% market share, totaling $4.5 billion in call (buy) options and $3.4 billion in put (sell) instruments. OKX follows in second place with $610 million in calls and $385 million in puts, representing 10% of the aggregate total. CME rounded out the top three with $255 million in calls and $287 million in puts, accounting for a 5% market share.

Put options are better positioned despite having less open interest

At first glance, the aggregate put options open interest appears 25% lower than equivalent call options. However, a more granular view reveals that neutral-to-bullish strategies were caught off guard by Bitcoin’s sharp decline below $75,000 in early February. 88% of call options on Deribit will expire worthless if the Bitcoin price remains below $70,000 on Friday.

Even when discarding calls targeting $105,000 and higher, which are typically part of complex multi-leg strategies with lower acquisition costs, only 37% of the remaining bets sit below $75,000. Realistically, this puts the effective call options open interest on Deribit at about $780 million. Given these current conditions, it is worth analyzing whether bearish traders have now overplayed their hand.

$1.44 billion in put options open interest on Deribit targets Bitcoin prices below $60,000, although it is unlikely that bets at $40,000 and $45,000 effectively aimed for those specific levels. Calendar strategies and ratio spreads are typically associated with extreme price targets, as they do not require a price crash to achieve profitability.

Put options at $72,000 and above total $1.15 billion in open interest on Deribit, which is more than enough to offset existing call options. Although Bitcoin’s decline toward $60,000 was likely not tied to macroeconomic trends, the relevance of Nvidia’s (NVDA US) earnings outcome after the US market close on Wednesday should not be understated.

The success of the artificial intelligence sector, particularly the sustainable operational margins of the world’s largest companies, remains decisive for every risk market. History suggests that Bitcoin’s correlation with the stock market seldom lasts long, but the fate of Friday’s $10.5 billion options expiry could be decided by stock market performance.

Related: Bitcoin tops $69.5K after stock market rebound, strong earnings data boost risk appetite

The current 90% correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 Index is clear evidence that the tech play is the leading driver of trader confidence, but as long as Bitcoin price remains below $75,000, the advantage continues to favor put options.

Below are three probable outcomes for Friday’s BTC options expiry at Deribit based on current price trends:

• From $65,000 to $69,000: The net result favors the put (sell) instruments by $1.15 billion.

• From $69,001 to $71,000: The net result favors the put (sell) instruments by $845 million.

• From $71,001 to $74,000: The net result favors the put (sell) instruments by $470 million.

Ultimately, Bitcoin bulls need a 9% rally from the present $68,800 level to flip the tables on the February options expiry.