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CFTC fires back as states target prediction markets

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CFTC fires back as states target prediction markets

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has moved to defend its authority over prediction markets, filing a friend-of-the-court brief as state-level legal challenges against the sector intensify.

Summary

  • The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a friend-of-the-court brief to defend its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets amid rising state-level legal challenges.
  • Chairman Mike Selig said the agency has regulated prediction markets for over two decades and warned challengers: “We will see you in court.”
  • The move comes as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission signals some event-based contracts may qualify as securities, while states like Nevada attempt to restrict platforms including Coinbase.

CFTC defends control of US prediction markets

In a video posted on X, CFTC Chairman Mike Selig said American prediction markets have faced “an onslaught of state-led litigation” over the past year. In response, the agency is stepping in to assert what it describes as its exclusive jurisdiction over these derivative products.

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“Prediction markets aren’t new,” Selig said. “The CFTC has regulated these markets for over two decades.”

He argued that such markets play a valuable role by allowing Americans to hedge commercial risks, including temperature fluctuations and energy price spikes. He also suggested they function as a check on media narratives and broader information flows.

The legal battle comes as regulators debate whether certain prediction market contracts fall under securities or commodities law. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission recently warned that some event-based contracts could be classified as securities, potentially subjecting platforms to its oversight.

Meanwhile, states including Nevada have sought to restrict the operations of crypto-linked prediction platforms, though a Nevada court recently declined to block Coinbase from offering certain prediction market services.

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The CFTC’s filing underscores escalating jurisdictional tensions between federal and state authorities, as well as between financial regulators. Selig emphasized that the agency intends to protect the “integrity, resilience, and vibrancy” of US derivatives markets.

“To those who seek to challenge our authority in this space, let me be clear,” he said. “We will see you in court.”

The case could have significant implications for the future of US-based prediction markets and their regulatory framework.

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Market Analysis: Gold Sees Profit-Taking While WTI Crude Tests Key Support

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Market Analysis: Gold Sees Profit-Taking While WTI Crude Tests Key Support

Gold price started a downside correction from $5,115. WTI Crude oil is now attempting to recover after sliding toward $61.80.

Important Takeaways for Gold and WTI Crude Oil Prices Analysis Today

· Gold price climbed higher toward the $5,120 zone before there was a sharp decline against the US Dollar.

· A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance at $4,945 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.

· WTI Crude oil prices extended losses below the $63.40 pivot zone.

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· It dipped below a rising channel with support at $62.85 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price climbed above $5,000. The price even spiked above $5,100 before the bears appeared.

A high was formed near $5,115 before there was a fresh decline. The last swing high was near $5,052 before the price settled below $5,000 and the 50-hour simple moving average. It tested the $4,850 zone.

A low is formed near $4,842, and the price is now correcting losses. There was a minor move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $5,052 swing high to the $4,842 low.

Immediate barrier on the upside is $4,945, the 50-hour simple moving average, and the 50% Fib retracement. There is also a bearish trend line with resistance at $4,945. The first major hurdle for the bulls could be $4,970.

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A close above $4,970 could send the price above $5,000. The next sell zone sits at $5,050, above which the price could test the $5,115 region. Any more gains might call for a move toward $5,200.

An upside break above $5,200 could send Gold price toward $5,285. Initial support on the downside is $4,885. The next key level is $4,840. If there is a downside break below $4,840, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward $4,750.

WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price struggled to continue higher above $65.00 against the US Dollar. The price formed a short-term top and started a fresh decline below $64.20.

There was a steady drop below the $63.40 pivot level. The bears even pushed the price below $62.50, a rising channel, and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the price tested $61.80. The recent swing low was formed near $61.80, and the price is now correcting losses.

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There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $63.94 swing high to the $61.80 low. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the 50% Fib retracement at $62.85.

The main hurdle is $63.40. A clear move above $63.40 could send the price toward $63.95. The next stop for the bulls might be $64.85.

If the price climbs further, it could face sellers near $65.60. Immediate support is $61.80. The next major breakdown level on the WTI crude oil chartis $60.50. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $58.80. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward $56.50.

Start trading commodity CFDs with tight spreads (additional fees may apply). Open your trading account now or learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Farming HIP-3 Protocols on Hyperliquid

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Farming HIP-3 Protocols on Hyperliquid


Trends to Watch (HIP-3 protocols, AI trenches)

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Bitcoin ETFs Post $105M Outflows As Hong Kong Buyer Emerges

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Bitcoin ETFs Post $105M Outflows As Hong Kong Buyer Emerges

US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) posted $104.9 million in net outflows on Tuesday in the first trading session this week.

Total trading volume in spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs fell to just over $3 billion, down nearly 80% from a record $14.7 billion on Feb. 5, reflecting a continued slowdown in trading activity, according to SoSoValue data.

Daily flows in US spot Bitcoin ETFs since Feb. 9, 2026. Source: SoSoValue

The outflows came as another round of institutions reported their Bitcoin ETF holdings for the fourth quarter of 2025, with Jane Street ranking as the second-largest buyer of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) in Q4, buying $276 million.

Q4 also saw a new IBIT entrant, an obscure Hong Kong-based company called Laurore, which acquired $436.2 million of the ETF in a single purchase reported to the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

A potential sign of Chinese institutions moving into Bitcoin?

According to Bitwise Investments adviser Jeff Park, Laurore’s newly disclosed position in IBIT could be an early indication of institutional Chinese capital entering Bitcoin.

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Park said Laurore has no public footprint — no website or press — and the only available information is that the filer’s name is Zhang Hui, the Chinese equivalent of “John Smith.”

Source: Jeff Park

While Park speculated that the investment may be linked to capital flight, some commentators questioned why the company would choose to buy Bitcoin through an ETF rather than directly.

Brevan Howard slashes IBIT holdings by 85%

Beyond Laurore and Jane Street, several institutions made significant moves with IBIT in Q4 2025. Weiss Asset Management reportedly added about 2.8 million shares ($107.5 million), while 59 North Capital increased its position by 2.6 million shares ($99.8 million).

Abu Dhabi’s state-owned investment firm Mubadala Investment also boosted its IBIT holdings by 45%, rising from 8.7 million shares in Q3 to 12.7 million in Q4, valued at $630.7 million.

Source: Zerohedge

In contrast, some companies cut their Bitcoin ETF exposure in Q4 2025. Brevan Howard reduced its IBIT holdings, dropping about 85% from 37 million shares ($2.4 billion) in Q3 2025 to about 5.5 million shares ($273.5 million) in Q4.

Goldman Sachs also trimmed its IBIT holdings by about 40%, leaving around $1 billion in assets.

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