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CFTC Formally Withdraws Biden-Era Proposal to Ban Sports and Political Prediction Markets

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The agency called the 2024 rule a “frolic into merit regulation” and said it will pursue new rulemaking grounded in the Commodity Exchange Act to provide clarity for prediction market operators.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Michael S. Selig has formally withdrawn a 2024 notice of proposed rulemaking that would have banned political, sports and war-related event contracts, marking the clearest signal yet that the agency intends to regulate prediction markets rather than restrict them.

Key Takeaways:

– The CFTC scrapped both its 2024 proposal to ban event contracts and a 2025 staff advisory that had warned firms away from sports-related markets.

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– Chairman Selig dismissed the earlier ban as a politically driven “frolic into merit regulation” and committed to building a new rules-based framework.

– The move lands as Kalshi, Polymarket and Coinbase fight a wave of state lawsuits alleging their sports contracts amount to unlicensed gambling.

The agency also rescinded CFTC Staff Letter 25-36, a September 2025 advisory that had warned regulated entities to exercise caution when facilitating sports-related event contracts due to ongoing litigation. In the remarks following the decision, Selig said:

“The 2024 event contracts proposal reflected the prior administration’s frolic into merit regulation with an outright prohibition on political contracts ahead of the 2024 presidential election.”

The CFTC does not intend to issue final rules under the withdrawn proposal, according to the press release.

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Instead, the commission will advance a new rulemaking framework anchored in the Commodity Exchange Act, aiming to establish clear standards for event contracts and provide legal certainty for exchanges and intermediaries.

Selig Frames Withdrawal as First Step Toward Comprehensive Event Contracts Rulemaking

The announcement follows remarks Selig delivered on January 29 at a joint CFTC-SEC harmonization event alongside Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Paul Atkins. As reported, Selig used his first public speech as chairman to outline a broader reset of the agency’s approach to prediction markets.

“For too long, the CFTC’s existing framework has proven difficult to apply and has failed our market participants,” Selig said. “That is something I intend to fix by establishing clear standards for event contracts that provide certainty to market participants.”

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Selig also directed staff to reassess the commission’s participation in pending federal court cases where jurisdictional questions are at issue, signaling that the CFTC may intervene to defend its exclusive authority over commodity derivatives.

Prediction Market Platforms Navigate Booming Growth and State-Level Legal Battles

The withdrawal arrives as prediction markets experience rapid expansion and intensifying regulatory friction. Combined trading volumes on Polymarket and Kalshi, the two largest platforms, reached $37 billion in 2025, drawing in major exchanges eager to compete.

Coinbase launched prediction markets through a partnership with Kalshi, a federally regulated designated contract market, in late January. Crypto.com recently spun out its prediction business into a standalone platform called OG. Polymarket returned to the U.S. market in December after receiving CFTC no-action relief, and Gemini secured a designated contract market license for its Titan platform.

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Meanwhile, state gaming regulators have pushed back. Nevada filed a civil enforcement action against Coinbase this week, arguing that event contracts tied to sports constitute unlicensed gambling. Coinbase has sued regulators in Michigan, Illinois and Connecticut over similar claims.

The NCAA has also urged the CFTC to halt college sports prediction trading, warning that the sector exposes student-athletes to integrity risks and operates outside state-level safeguards.

Selig, who was sworn in on December 22, has not provided a firm timeline for the new rulemaking, but positioned event contracts as a priority alongside the agency’s broader “Project Crypto” initiative with the SEC.

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Bitcoin slides to $72,300 as Hormuz conflict and hot inflation hit risk assets

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Bitcoin Core maintainers face shake-up as Gloria Zhao revokes PGP key

Bitcoin slips to $72.3k as the Strait of Hormuz conflict spikes oil, U.S. inflation runs hot, and traders slash Fed cut bets, pressuring crypto and stocks.

Cryptocurrency markets came under sharp pressure on Wednesday as two converging macro forces — an escalating military conflict centered on the Strait of Hormuz and a worse-than-expected U.S. inflation print — sent Bitcoin tumbling to approximately $72,300, a 24-hour decline of roughly 2%. Ethereum, Solana, and XRP each fell close to 3%, dragging the broader digital asset market into a broad risk-off retreat that also hit equity futures.

The geopolitical backdrop has been deteriorating since late February, when U.S. and Israeli forces launched coordinated strikes on Iran — killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — triggering retaliatory missile campaigns across Gulf states and an effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. As of mid-March, tanker traffic through the strait had dropped by approximately 70%, with over 150 vessels anchored outside the chokepoint. The IRGC has since confirmed more than 21 attacks on merchant ships, and Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, has vowed to maintain the blockade, with the IRGC navy pledging to deliver “the harshest blows” to enforce it.

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The disruption of the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 15% of global oil supply transits — has sent energy prices soaring. On Wednesday, Brent crude broke above $104 per barrel, rising 3.22% intraday, while WTI crossed $97 per barrel. The spike compounds an already difficult inflation environment.

Data released Wednesday morning by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the Producer Price Index rose 0.7% month-on-month in February, more than double the consensus forecast of 0.3%. Core PPI — which strips out food and energy — climbed 0.5% MoM against an expected 0.3%, and rose 3.9% year-on-year. Critically, these figures do not yet reflect the surge in oil prices triggered by the Hormuz closure, meaning the inflationary pipeline is likely to worsen in coming months.

The report follows a February CPI reading that held steady at 2.4% year-on-year, but with core PCE — the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge — estimated at approximately 3.1%, well above the central bank’s 2% target. Capital Economics noted ahead of Wednesday’s PPI release that preliminary estimates already pointed to a “much firmer rise in the core PCE deflator.”

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For markets, the implications are stark. Traders have now materially reduced bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, and S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures widened their declines to 0.5% following the PPI release. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) climbed 1.22 points to 23.59, reflecting rising investor anxiety ahead of the Fed’s rate decision later this week.

Bitcoin, which had been testing resistance near $74,000 in recent sessions, proved unable to hold those levels against the twin headwinds. The asset’s correlation with risk assets such as equities has reasserted itself sharply, undermining near-term narratives around its use as an inflation hedge. The Fed’s policy meeting and Chair Powell’s anticipated remarks on growth risks and price stability will now be closely watched for any signal that could shift the current trajectory.

With oil prices elevated, inflation proving stickier than models anticipated, and a military conflict showing no signs of de-escalation, the path of least resistance for risk assets — crypto included — remains uncertain at best.

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Algorand Foundation Cuts Workforce By 25% Amid Market Uncertainty

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Cryptocurrencies, Business, Algorand

The Algorand Foundation, the organization behind the Algorand layer-1 blockchain, said it had made the “difficult decision” to reduce its headcount by 25% on Wednesday, blaming the crypto slump and wider uncertainty.

“This decision was not taken lightly and is in response to the uncertain global macro environment as well as the broader downturn in crypto markets,” the Algorand Foundation said in an X post.

The Algorand Foundation said the affected employees were “best-in-class contributors” and described the decision as “incredibly tough,” adding that it would support staff through the transition.

“We believe that we now have a more sustainable alignment of Algorand Foundation resources with the protocol’s long-term business, technology, and ecosystem priorities,” the foundation added.

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Algorand Foundation is gearing up for a big year ahead

The staff cuts come as the Algorand Foundation prepares for several milestones for the year ahead, including the next major release of its developer toolkit AlgoKit, the launch of the user-friendly Rocca Wallet, the development of a more robust commercial toolkit, and a focus on post-quantum security.

Cryptocurrencies, Business, Algorand
Source: Nik Bougalis

The Algorand Foundation said in its roadmap progress report in December 2025 that it made “significant progress” toward greater decentralization, having increased Algorand’s (ALGO) online stake from approximately 1 billion to 2 billion ALGO in just over a year.

The crypto industry has a history of cutting staff during market downturns. Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $71,067 — 44% below its October all-time high of $126,000 — after falling as low as $60,000 on Feb. 6, according to CoinMarketCap.

Related: SEC Chair explains why NFTs fall outside of securities laws

Bullish CEO Tom Farley recently predicted that the crypto sector could see more projects acquired by larger firms in the coming months, potentially leading to redundancies, layoffs, and internal restructuring.

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Meanwhile, on Monday, blockchain data provider Messari announced a series of layoffs while its CEO, Eric Turner, stepped down to make way for the company’s “next phase” as an AI-first company. 

During the 2022 bear market, Coinbase reduced its workforce by around 18% as Bitcoin hit two-year lows near $21,000. Around the same time, Gemini, the trading platform founded by the Winklevoss twins, reportedly cut 10% of its staff amid the broader crypto slump.

More layoffs could follow if history repeats, with veteran trader Peter Brandt predicting the crypto market may not reach its bottom until the third quarter of this year. 

Magazine: Big Questions: Can Bitcoin save you from the dreaded Cantillon Effect?

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