Crypto World
Chainalysis Warns Crypto Payments to Iran Could Trigger Sanctions Risk
Shipping firms weighing cryptocurrency payments to cover potential transit fees through Iran face substantial sanctions risk, according to Kaitlin Martin, a senior intelligence analyst at Chainalysis. Under current sanctions frameworks, payments linked to the Iranian regime or other sanctioned actors can be interpreted as material support, exposing companies to both U.S. and international restrictions.
The alert comes as reports circulate that Tehran could seek to collect transit fees via crypto for passage through strategic waterways. While U.S. President Donald Trump has signaled he would not tolerate tolls on the Strait of Hormuz, the broader question remains whether crypto could serve as a workaround for sanctions—an idea that experts say is unlikely to escape scrutiny and enforcement actions.
Key takeaways
- Payments to the Iranian regime or sanctioned entities tied to transit routes can be treated as material support, creating meaningful sanctions exposure for shippers and financiers.
- Iran has expanded its use of digital assets, especially stablecoins, to facilitate trade in oil, weapons, and other commodities, but blockchain transparency does not guarantee a bypass of sanctions.
- Cryptocurrency transactions leave a traceable record, which investigators can leverage to freeze or seize assets at cash-out points, complicating evasion efforts.
- Besides Iran, other sanctioned states have explored crypto-enabled trade. Russia, for example, has used digital tokens to support cross-border commerce in the face of sanctions.
- Iran’s Bitcoin mining activity has declined markedly, while the global Bitcoin network remains robust; the disruption appears concentrated within Iran and does not appear to destabilize neighboring markets.
Crypto use and sanctions: what changes, and what remains uncertain
In a field where financial channels are traditionally governed by a dense matrix of controls, the idea that cryptocurrency can neatly sidestep sanctions is met with caution by investigators. Martin notes that while digital assets enable cross-border transfers outside conventional rails, they come with inherent visibility. “In many ways, cryptocurrency is actually easier to trace than traditional methods of sanctions evasion,” she said, highlighting the ability to track funds to eventual cash-out points where authorities can intervene or seize assets.
Public data suggests Tehran is pushing forward with crypto-enabled trade, leveraging digital assets to move value for oil, commodities, and related goods. The trend underscores a broader strategic pivot: sanctioned economies are exploring crypto as a tool to preserve some level of cross-border activity amid pressure from Western jurisdictions. Yet the traceability of blockchain transactions means that these efforts remain exposed to enforcement actions and risk mitigation strategies by banks, exchanges, and other counterparties.
There is a precedent for state actors adopting crypto as a supplementary mechanism for trade under sanctions. For instance, Russia has experimented with digital tokens to facilitate cross-border transactions after international restrictions intensified in 2022. Such moves illustrate the dual nature of crypto in geopolitics: it can expand access to value transfer, but it also amplifies the footprint of regulatory scrutiny and potential sanctions enforcement.
Iranian mining and the global network outlook
The same period that highlights Tehran’s interest in crypto-enabled trade also intersects with a broader crypto mining landscape. Iran’s Bitcoin hashrate has fallen sharply, dropping by about 7 exahashes per second and sliding to roughly 2 exahashes per second, amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and domestic pressures. While this represents a substantial local shift, the global Bitcoin network remains broadly stable, with total hashrate hovering near 1,000 exahashes per second. The decline appears concentrated within Iran, with neighboring Gulf states such as the United Arab Emirates and Oman showing little impact so far.
These dynamics matter for investors and builders in several ways. First, the concentration of mining power in a single region can affect energy markets and grid stress in that area, potentially influencing local policy and energy incentives. Second, the resilience of the global network despite regional disruptions reinforces Bitcoin’s core property as a globally distributed system. And third, the shift in Iran’s mining activity could influence the country’s capacity to monetize energy assets through crypto, a factor worth watching as sanctions and regional risk evolve.
What to watch next
Several developments bear watching in the near term. First, how strictly authorities pursue alleged crypto-enabled sanctions evasion in shipping lanes and whether there are new enforcement actions against companies facilitating such flows. Second, any shifts in Tehran’s crypto and stablecoin usage for trade, including potential policy signals from Iranian authorities. Third, the interplay between regional mining activity and energy policy, particularly in Iran and neighboring states, as sanctions and geopolitical tensions continue to reshape incentives for miners and exporters alike.
Crypto World
Crypto TradFi perpetuals are predicting the direct of Wall Street’s Monday open with 89% accuracy
Crypto exchanges are starting to take on a new role: pricing traditional assets while Wall Street is closed.
The growing market for perpetual futures contracts tied to traditional financial instruments including commodities like gold and oil that runs around the clock on cryptocurrency exchanges is responsible.
Data from Binance Research suggests these markets, which hit $31 billion in weekly trading volume on commodities volatility, are doing more than filling idle hours. Weekend price moves in gold-linked perps correctly predict the direction of Monday’s opening in traditional futures about 89% of the time, Binance found. The correlation between the two sits near 0.80, indicating a strong relationship.
The report finds a median “capture ratio” of 57%, meaning more than half of the expected move is already reflected in crypto markets before traditional exchanges open.

The extreme volatility seen over the war in Iran serves as an example. As tensions rose over the weekend of February 28 to March 1, trading volume in these contracts surged to $8.1 billion, far above typical levels. Traders used the market to hedge and react in real time while traditional venues were closed.
Weekend activity has grown steadily over the past month as volumes now average about 38% of weekday levels, according to Binance’s data.
“While the magnitude of price discovery still has room for improvement, directional accuracy is already compelling,” the firm wrote. “Weekend perpetual price movements correctly predict the direction of Monday’s opening gap 89% of the time. For traders seeking to position ahead of Monday’s open or manage weekend risk, this level of directional reliability makes TradFi-perps a valuable signal source.”
These products also offer other advantages by bringing financial instruments that would otherwise have forced crypto holders to off-ramp to access directly into their platfforms.
Read more: Traders are the big winners as 24/7 stocks will finally end the after-hours price ‘manipulation’
Crypto World
DocuSign (DOCU) Stock Plunges After Citigroup Slashes Rating and Price Target
Key Highlights
- Citigroup downgraded DocuSign from Buy to Neutral, reducing its price target dramatically from $99 to $50
- Shares declined approximately 6% following the announcement, continuing a multi-day slide
- The company’s fiscal 2026 revenue expansion of only 8% raised valuation concerns
- Emerging AI-powered competitors pose potential disruption threats to traditional SaaS business models
- Year-to-date performance shows DOCU down approximately 34.5%, trading more than 54% below its peak
DocuSign experienced a particularly challenging week as shares tumbled following a significant analyst downgrade. On April 10, Citigroup shifted its rating on the digital signature provider from Buy to Neutral while simultaneously slashing its price objective from $99 down to $50. The dramatic reduction caught investor attention and triggered immediate selling.
The downgrade centered on a fundamental concern: revenue expansion. DocuSign reported fiscal 2026 revenue growth of merely 8%. For a technology company that historically traded at premium multiples, such modest single-digit expansion creates a challenging narrative for investors anticipating stronger performance.
Citi’s research analyst emphasized that the decelerated growth trajectory makes the stock’s previous valuation levels difficult to support. The revised $50 price objective signals a substantially more conservative outlook on the company’s near-term potential.
The Citigroup rating cut didn’t occur in isolation. One trading session prior, DOCU shares had already declined 4.4% as market-wide nervousness intensified.
Some of that previous session’s weakness stemmed from geopolitical developments — news surrounding a ceasefire collapse in Middle Eastern regions unsettled markets and prompted investors to reduce exposure to growth-oriented technology names.
However, another catalyst hit particularly close to the software sector. Anthropic’s introduction of Managed Agents — autonomous artificial intelligence systems capable of executing sophisticated, multi-stage workflows — sparked concerns that conventional SaaS applications might face meaningful competition from AI-first platforms.
Artificial Intelligence Rivals Create Uncertainty
The concern carries substance. Should AI-powered agents successfully replicate functionality currently delivered by specialized software platforms like DocuSign, the total addressable market for such solutions could contract significantly over time.
Notable short seller Michael Burry contributed to the apprehension with a social media comment (later deleted) suggesting Anthropic[[/LINK_END_3]] was undermining Palantir’s business. Though the post was swiftly removed, market participants took notice — amplifying broader concerns regarding established SaaS providers.
It’s notable that DOCU has experienced 16 separate trading sessions with single-day price movements exceeding 5% throughout the past year. The equity clearly responds sharply to developments, with investors rapidly adjusting their valuations.
Current Trading Position
At a price of $42.49 per share, DocuSign currently trades 54.7% beneath its 52-week peak of $93.84, which the stock reached in June 2025.
Since the beginning of the calendar year, shares have declined approximately 34.5%. That represents a substantial contraction in barely more than a fiscal quarter.
For perspective: an investor who allocated $1,000 to DocuSign stock five years ago would currently hold a position valued at roughly $199.
The technical analysis also presents challenges. Daily trading volume has averaged north of 5 million shares, while technical momentum indicators currently flash a Sell signal.
The company’s market capitalization now stands at approximately $8.86 billion, representing a meaningful decrease from levels reached during periods of stronger growth expectations.
Citigroup’s $50 price objective represents the most recent Wall Street analyst adjustment for the security.
Crypto World
Super Micro (SMCI) Stock Surges 9% on Gold Series AI Server Launch
Key Points
- Super Micro Computer shares rallied approximately 9% Friday following the Gold Series server announcement.
- The new Gold Series features more than 25 ready-to-deploy server configurations designed for AI, cloud computing, and data storage applications.
- All systems ship within a three-business-day window and arrive fully equipped with processors, graphics cards, RAM, and storage drives.
- Company CEO Charles Liang emphasized the platform reduces delivery timelines and speeds up customer implementation.
- Despite Friday’s rally, SMCI remains down 18.3% in 2025 and trades 58.3% beneath its 52-week peak of $60.71.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) posted a roughly 9% gain Friday after introducing its Gold Series enterprise server portfolio, a ready-to-ship platform designed to accelerate deployment timelines for business clients.
Super Micro Computer, Inc., SMCI
The Gold Series encompasses more than 25 distinct server models selected from Super Micro’s current product catalog. The lineup includes both single-socket and dual-socket architectures, each engineered for artificial intelligence, cloud infrastructure, and storage operations.
Every configuration arrives fully integrated with central processing units, graphics processing units, memory modules, and storage components. According to the company, all orders leave distribution centers within three business days of placement.
CEO Charles Liang positioned the initiative as a velocity-focused strategy. “We make our industry-leading server portfolio available to our customers even faster, significantly shortening lead times and accelerating their time-to-online,” he stated.
Another Significant Swing for a High-Volatility Equity
SMCI has experienced 48 single-day movements exceeding 5% during the past twelve months. Friday’s advance continues this established volatility pattern — notable in magnitude, yet not necessarily indicative of shifting sentiment on the company’s fundamental outlook.
The most recent substantial decline occurred eleven days prior when shares dropped 5.4%. That selloff coincided with escalating geopolitical tensions that pushed both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite into correction territory, each declining over 10% from recent peaks. Climbing crude oil prices and inflation concerns triggered widespread equity market weakness.
Friday’s positive session doesn’t reverse those losses. SMCI continues trading down 18.3% year-to-date.
Current Valuation Context
Trading at $25.30 per share, SMCI sits 58.3% below its 52-week high of $60.71, established in July 2025.
Despite recent volatility, investors with longer holding periods maintain substantial appreciation. A $1,000 investment in Super Micro five years ago would currently be valued at approximately $6,321.
The Gold Series introduction arrives as Super Micro expands its presence in the enterprise artificial intelligence infrastructure market. The emphasis on rapid fulfillment and turnkey configurations indicates the company is pursuing customers prioritizing deployment speed and operational simplicity over customized solutions.
The company did not release revised revenue projections or earnings estimates alongside Friday’s product unveiling.
Crypto World
Software Sector Under Siege: Why Wall Street Is Sounding the AI Alarm
Key Takeaways
- Citi Research moved six software companies from Buy to Neutral ratings: Similarweb, Docusign, Autodesk, Nice, CCC, and Veeva
- Price target reductions exceeded 40% for multiple companies in the downgrade sweep
- Piper Sandler identifies Anthropic’s Claude Managed Agents as existential risk to legacy software providers
- Investment firms pivot toward cloud hyperscalers Microsoft and Oracle instead of traditional enterprise software
- CNBC’s Jim Cramer confirms hardware-over-software thesis has returned with staying power
In a sweeping move that sent shockwaves through technology markets, Citi Research slashed ratings on six application software companies Friday, moving them from Buy to Neutral. The affected firms include Similarweb, Docusign, Autodesk, Nice, CCC Intelligent Solutions, and Veeva Systems. Share prices declined across the board following the announcement.
Tyler Radke, analyst at Citi, attributed the downgrades to an absence of meaningful near-term catalysts combined with mounting evidence that artificial intelligence is beginning to erode traditional software revenue models. “While we view most of these as quality enterprises potentially well-positioned for the future, they lack compelling 12-month drivers,” Radke explained in his research note.
The firm simultaneously delivered brutal price target cuts. Docusign’s target plummeted from $99 to $50. Veeva experienced a reduction from $291 to $176. Similarweb absorbed the most severe blow, with its target collapsing from $8.50 to just $3.
Radke highlighted a troubling competitive dynamic: privately-held AI enterprises are projected to capture more than $100 billion in incremental revenue in upcoming years. This dwarfs the estimated $50 billion expected from conventional application software providers. Additional headwinds include escalating software optimization expenses and accelerating vendor consolidation trends.
Anthropic’s Agent Platform Intensifies Industry Concerns
Piper Sandler analyst Billy Fitzsimmons identified another catalyst accelerating the software sector’s decline. Anthropic recently unveiled Claude Managed Agents, a preconfigured, customizable agent framework engineered for extended-duration and asynchronous workflows.
Fitzsimmons noted this development fuels apprehension that Anthropic’s agent technology will directly challenge solutions developed by incumbent software vendors. He anticipates sustained negative sentiment toward the software industry extending through year-end at minimum.
Piper Sandler reduced ratings on multiple sector names while expressing preference for businesses that monetize AI computational resources directly. The firm highlighted Microsoft and Oracle as preferred investments, emphasizing their Azure and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure platforms respectively.
Microsoft currently trades at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 20x based on 2027 projections while producing $77.4 billion in levered free cash flow. Despite a 27% contraction over the preceding six months, Piper Sandler characterizes the valuation as attractive.
Infrastructure Players Benefit from Software Sector Exodus
CNBC’s Jim Cramer drew attention to the expanding performance gap between hardware and software equities Thursday. He observed that the “buy hardware, sell software” positioning that dominated early 2026 trading has made a decisive comeback.
Salesforce declined nearly 3% while Adobe surrendered approximately 4% Thursday. The IGV software ETF, serving as a primary sector benchmark, tumbled more than 4%. CrowdStrike dropped 7.5% despite its cybersecurity focus, primarily due to its inclusion in the fund.
Conversely, hardware manufacturers rallied. Marvell Technology and Intel each advanced close to 5%. Corning, a supplier of data center materials, appreciated 2.85%.
Cramer characterized the dynamic as AI infrastructure providers commanding premium valuations while enterprise software faces treatment as a contracting industry. He suggested this pattern shows limited signs of reversing soon.
Piper Sandler separately highlighted Global-e Online as a favored selection. The company’s business model ties to ecommerce transaction volumes rather than software license counts, with management projecting 29% revenue expansion this year.
Crypto World
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s Residence Hit by Molotov Cocktail Attack in San Francisco
Key Points
- Authorities apprehended a 20-year-old suspect following an incendiary attack on Sam Altman’s San Francisco residence early Friday morning
- An exterior gate caught fire from the explosive device, though no casualties were reported
- Approximately 60 minutes after the initial incident, the individual made threatening statements about burning OpenAI’s Third Street facilities
- According to OpenAI representatives, structural damage remained “minimal” and San Francisco operations continued without disruption
- The incident occurred shortly following a comprehensive New Yorker exposé questioning Altman’s leadership credibility
Law enforcement officials arrested a suspect in his early twenties on Friday following an incendiary assault on the residence of OpenAI’s chief executive, Sam Altman, in San Francisco, coupled with menacing statements directed at the artificial intelligence company’s main offices.
The assault took place during the early morning hours, specifically around 4 a.m. Pacific time, in San Francisco’s prestigious Russian Hill district. The individual launched an improvised incendiary weapon at Altman’s property, igniting flames at an external gate structure.
Fortunately, no individuals sustained injuries during the incident. Representatives from OpenAI acknowledged the attack through an official statement provided to Forbes, characterizing the resulting property damage as “minimal.”
Law enforcement personnel responded to a subsequent emergency call approximately one hour following the initial attack. An individual had issued verbal threats about setting ablaze a structure located on the 1400 block of Third Street. The artificial intelligence company maintains its primary headquarters at 1455 Third Street.
Authorities determined the person responsible for the threats matched the description of the individual from the earlier residential attack. The suspect was taken into custody with criminal charges currently under consideration. Investigative procedures remain active.
OpenAI distributed an internal communication to employees acknowledging both security incidents. The organization confirmed all San Francisco facilities maintained normal operations on Friday, noting enhanced law enforcement and private security measures around company properties.
“During the early hours today, an individual threw a Molotov cocktail targeting Sam Altman’s residence and subsequently issued threats directed at our San Francisco headquarters location,” a company representative stated. “We are grateful that no injuries occurred.”
CEO’s Public Statement Following the Incident
Altman published remarks regarding the attack through his personal blog platform on Friday. He recognized that public skepticism surrounding the artificial intelligence sector frequently stems from “genuine apprehension about the extraordinarily significant implications of this technology.”
“As we engage in this critical discussion, we must reduce inflammatory language and aggressive approaches and aim for fewer explosions affecting fewer residences, both metaphorically and in reality,” he stated.
The violent incident transpired merely days following the New Yorker’s publication of an extensive year-long investigative report examining Altman. The journalistic piece characterized the executive as an ethically questionable figure leading the competitive AI development landscape.
Mounting Scrutiny on OpenAI’s Leadership
The timing coincides with escalating public scrutiny and legal challenges confronting Altman. Elon Musk has initiated legal efforts aimed at removing Altman from his OpenAI position based on allegations of fraudulent conduct.
OpenAI representatives confirmed complete collaboration with ongoing law enforcement inquiries. The San Francisco Police Department indicated that formal charges against the detained individual remained pending as of Friday evening.
The suspect successfully accessed Altman’s residential property without documented security intervention prior to deploying the incendiary device. Law enforcement has withheld public disclosure of the suspect’s identity or any potential motivations behind the attacks.
Crypto World
How market’s private credit crisis fears are spreading to bond ETFs

Fears of a private credit crisis are rising as firms at the heart of the growing, but less liquid and less transparent, bond market face investor redemptions. That stress test has arrived just as private loans became more prevalent in the ETF market. It was a little over a year ago that the Securities and Exchange Commission approved the first ETF branded as a private credit fund.
For ETF investors, the good news it that the risks represented by the asset class are showing up in a more controlled way, as ETFs invest directly in private credit issues are still limited in how much exposure they can have to the asset class — up to, but not exceeding 35%.
Some other, older ETF products that are tied to private credit get indirect exposure only, according to Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, said on CNBC’s “ETF Edge. They use vehicles like business development companies and closed end funds that primarily invest in the private credit sector. While that adds liquidity compared to holding private loans directly, it is not without investor concern in the current environment.
The VanEck BDC Income ETF (BIZD), which has roughly $1.5 billion in assets and dates back to 2013, is down 13% since the start of the year. The reason is clear: among BIZD’s top holdings are publicly traded shares of some of the private credit managers in the news, including Blue Owl Capital and Ares Capital. Blue Owl shares are down over 46% this year.
The Simplify VettaFi Private Credit Strategy ETF (PCR) is down around 20% in the past year and also focused its investments in business development companies and closed end funds.
PCR YTD
Liquidity remains the main concern for investors, and private credit is not meant for daily trading the way ETFs are, which has resulted in issues between private credit managers and investors wanting to pull out their funds. But in the ETF space, daily liquidity and trading always give investors the option to sell, though it may come at a cost.
“You can get out, you’re just going to pay or you’re going to sell at a discount to net asset value,” Rosenbluth said.
BIZD closed at a discount to its net asset value 37 times in calendar year 2025, and so far, 12 times this year.
Private credit funds, meanwhile, often restrict withdrawals during times of stress. “You’re gating because you said we can’t have a run on the bank,” Rosenbluth said.
Limits on redemptions help prevent forced selling and instability, though they don’t necessarily help to calm market fears.
State Street‘s private credit ETFs, developed with alternative investments manager Apollo Global and which included the first private credit branded ETF approved by the SEC, are examples of how access is being structured within ETFs. The State Street IG Public & Private Credit ETF (PRIV) was the first of its kind, approved by the SEC in February 2025. The State Street Short Duration IG Public & Private Credit ETF (PRSD) launched later in 2025.
These funds are meant to outperform standard bond benchmarks by including investment-grade private credit, and can both hold as much as 35% in private credit issues, or at times less than 10%. According to the State Street ETF web site, only one of PRIV’s current top 10 holdings is private credit, with treasury and mortgage-backed securities dominating in the top 10. PRSD’s top holdings are a mix of government, mortgage and currency holdings.
Performance of State Street’s private credit ETF, the first approved by the SEC, over the past year versus the aggregate bond index.
PRIV has $831 million assets under management; PRSD is much smaller, at $48 million in assets under management. Both have seen relatively flat performance since the beginning of the year. Both PRIV and PRSD hold slightly over 20% of assets in Apollo-sourced investments, according to State Street data.
Jeffrey Rosenberg, systematic fixed income senior portfolio manager at BlackRock, who runs a long-short strategy in an ETF wrapper, says the private credit investing issues are one example of how much ETFs have changed fixed income markets. As active portfolio managers in the bond market meet more investors through ETFs, it allows them more precision in targeting specific parts of the credit market. “They’ve just completely changed how liquidity provisioning, price discovery … how the ecosystem of credit market-making functions in a modern credit market,” he said on “ETF Edge.”
Money has been on the move during the recent market volatility, according to Rosenbluth, with ETF investors “taking some risk off” and moving from longer-duration bond funds into shorter-duration funds.
The biggest systemic risk in private credit markets comes from the asset-liability mismatch. “The run on the bank,” Rosenburg said. But it is his view that this type of risk is less pronounced today since many private credit vehicles limit liquidity by design. That cannot eliminate risk, but can make the risks surface more gradually, Rosenburg explained, saying impact could take place over longer time horizons as companies face refinancing at higher rates.
Both Rosenbluth and Rosenburg explained that the result of this is a system that absorbs shock differently. Private credit funds may restrict redemptions and ETFs allow for continuous trading with real-time price adjustments — allowing markets to keep functioning while reflecting stress as it develops. Both approaches, they say, aim to prevent disorderly outcomes.
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Crypto World
Bitwise files updated S-1 for Hyperliquid ETF as HYPE fund race heats up
Crypto asset manager Bitwise has filed an amended registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for a proposed exchange-traded fund (ETF) tied to Hyperliquid’s HYPE
The updated S-1 for the fund, which would hold HYPE directly and list on NYSE Arca, said it would trade under the ticker BHYP. The fund aims to track the token’s price, offering investors exposure to it without leveraging crypto exchanges or wallets.
The proposed product includes a staking component. Bitwise said the fund would stake a portion of its holdings to earn additional tokens, with about 85% of staking rewards retained after fees.
The filing also details a 0.67% annual management fee and custody arrangements with Anchorage Digital, a federally chartered crypto bank.
The price of Hyperliquid’s HYPE token has surged over the past year. The token is up around 200% over the last 12 months, as it became the go-to decentralized trading platform for perpetual contracts, including those tied to traditional financial products.
Other asset managers have also moved to list HYPE-linked exchange-traded funds. These include Grayscale, which filed last month to list under the ticker GHYP on Nasdaq, as well as 21Shares and VanEck.
Crypto World
Crypto Clarity bill has 30% chance of passing this year, Wintermute’s Hammond says
Ron Hammond, head of policy at crypto market maker Wintermute, has a cautious outlook on the Clarity Act, putting its chances of passage this year at around 30% even as momentum builds in Washington.
“There are a lot of moving parts,” Hammond said, pointing to a legislative process that is advancing, but unevenly. The Clarity Act aims to create rules around crypto market structure regulation in the U.S., including codifying how the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission can oversee digital assets in the U.S.
Hammond’s estimate broadly aligns with other signals in the market. A recent Punchbowl survey of lobbyists and staffers put the odds at 26%, while prediction market Kalshi has hovered just above even odds. The spread underscores how uncertain the bill’s trajectory remains.
Still, Hammond, who will be speaking at CoinDesk’s Consensus Miami conference next month, sees incremental progress. Lawmakers are pushing to move the bill through committee, with some aiming for a vote as early as April 20, though he cautioned that such timelines have been fluid for months.
“These dates are moving,” he said. “There’s light at the end of the tunnel, but there are hurdles along the way.”
Passage of the Clarity Act is widely seen as a key unlock for institutional adoption of crypto because it would establish clear rules around which digital assets are securities versus commodities, and define how they can be traded, custodied and otherwise regulated in the U.S.
Today’s fragmented and uncertain framework has kept many large asset managers, banks and pension funds on the sidelines due to legal and compliance risks. A comprehensive market structure law would reduce that ambiguity, giving institutions the confidence to scale exposure, launch new products, and integrate crypto more fully into traditional financial systems.
Hurdles
At the center of those hurdles: banks.
According to Hammond, traditional financial institutions remain the biggest obstacle, particularly around the issue of whether stablecoins should offer yield. A recent report from the Council of Economic Advisers has pushed back on bank opposition, but negotiations remain stuck.
“There have been attempts from a number of sides: Coinbase (COIN), the White House, the bill’s drafters, to find a solution,” Hammond said. “But at every turn, the banks refuse to give way.”
The dispute has already derailed at least one compromise. Hammond said a proposed “yield deal” floated roughly two weeks ago failed to satisfy either side, sending negotiators back to the drawing board. A new version is now circulating, but expectations are tempered.
“Even with broader macro pressures, it’s hard to see how the banks get happy here,” he said.
Democrats
That resistance is shaping the politics around the bill, particularly for Democrats. Hammond noted that some lawmakers who have accepted crypto industry funding are now navigating a difficult balancing act.
“If you’re a Democrat who took crypto money, where do you stand on this issue?” he said, pointing also to unresolved concerns around decentralized finance (DeFi) and anti-money laundering compliance.
Additional political headwinds could emerge in the coming months. Hammond flagged ongoing scrutiny around former President Donald Trump’s crypto-related dealings as a potential flashpoint that could complicate Democratic support if it intensifies around June.
“All of that becomes another headache,” he said.
Despite the friction, Hammond believes the bill still has a viable, if narrow, path forward. Progress in committee and continued negotiations could keep it alive into midyear, when political incentives may shift.
“There will be some progress soon,” he said.
U.S. expansion
For Wintermute, the stakes are high. The firm, one of the largest crypto market makers globally with roughly $10 million in daily trading volume, is expanding its U.S. footprint, and growing its New York team.
Hammond said that reflects a broader industry commitment to the U.S. market, particularly under what firms see as a more favorable regulatory environment. “Wintermute has expanded operations since the election by establishing a U.S. office in NYC and we have been actively hiring,” he added.
That makes the outcome of the Clarity Act all the more consequential. While Hammond sees “light at the end of the tunnel,” he emphasized that passage in 2026 will require breakthroughs that have so far proved elusive.
For now, 30% remains his number, and a reminder that progress in Washington does not always translate into results.
Read more: Bitcoin is stuck in a rut but JPMorgan says new legislation could be the ultimate spark
Crypto World
AI hiring claims face test as US job growth stays modest
The US labor market added 178,000 jobs in March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Summary
- March job growth stayed modest while tech hiring remained weak and entry-level roles kept shrinking.
- AI use rose in offices, but many workers reported rework, frustration, and lower trust.
- Executives saw gains from AI tools, while staff faced errors and extra checks daily.
The data showed limited change from the prior month, even as companies kept talking about AI-led growth and better workplace efficiency.
That gap has kept attention on whether AI is lifting hiring and output as promised. Recent labor, workplace, and industry reports show a more mixed picture, especially in tech and entry-level roles.
Most job growth in March came from healthcare, construction, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance. Healthcare added 76,000 jobs, while construction gained 26,000 and transportation and warehousing added 21,000.
The BLS data did not show the same strength in tech-linked areas. Computing infrastructure providers and web search portals showed little movement, while computer systems design and related services lost 13,000 jobs during the month.
That pattern stands in contrast to public claims that tech hiring is recovering. Marc Andreessen said fears about AI-led job losses were overblown and shared data showing more job openings at tech firms.
But openings do not always lead to hiring. The March labor figures showed that the strongest hiring came from sectors outside core tech, while related digital services stayed flat or moved lower.
A recent Goldman Sachs report, cited by Fortune, said AI cut about 16,000 jobs per month over the past year. At the same time, a 2025 SignalFire study said new graduate hiring had dropped 50% from levels seen before the COVID-19 pandemic.
SignalFire said, “The door to tech once swung wide open for new grads. Today, it’s barely cracked.” The report linked that shift to smaller funding rounds, leaner teams, fewer graduate programs, and rising AI use.
Goldman Sachs also warned that workers pushed out by technology often move into more routine jobs. The report said this shift can reduce the value of their existing skills and weaken labor outcomes for years.
That concern has widened the debate around AI and employment. While some leaders still expect long-term gains, recent data has kept attention on current hiring patterns and who bears the cost of the change.
Worker experience does not match executive optimism
Executives continue to report strong support for AI tools. Harvard Business Review said 80% of leaders use AI weekly, while 74% reported positive returns from early deployments.
Workers reported a different experience. Mercer said 43% of workers found their jobs more frustrating, while Workday said nearly four hours are lost fixing AI output for every 10 hours of claimed efficiency gains.
Harvard Business Review also pointed to “workslop,” described as content that looks polished but lacks substance. Researchers said 41% of workers had seen this kind of output, with each case adding almost two hours of rework.
Workday said only 14% of respondents “consistently achieve net-positive outcomes from AI use.” That result suggests many workplaces are still dealing with errors, extra review, and weak trust in outputs.
OpenAI warns policy may lag behind change
The divide between executive use and daily staff experience may come from how teams use the tools. Harvard Business Review said senior leaders often apply AI to strategy, drafting, and synthesis, where the systems tend to perform better.
For routine operations that need steady accuracy, results appear less reliable. Brian Solis of ServiceNow called this burden an “AI tax,” which he described as “More checking. More rework. More anxiety.”
OpenAI has also acknowledged that AI is changing employment. Its policy ideas included broader healthcare coverage, retirement savings support, and a new industrial agenda.
The company said its proposals are early and meant to begin discussion. It also warned, “Unless policy keeps pace with technological change, the institutions and safety nets needed to navigate this transition could fall behind.”
Crypto World
Top Quantum Computing Stocks for 2026: IonQ, IBM, and Microsoft Lead the Charge
Key Highlights
- IonQ achieved a groundbreaking 99.99% fidelity world record and targets millions of qubits by 2030.
- IBM earned a “Perfect 10” Smart Score rating on TipRanks with Moderate Buy consensus and analysts projecting 40.49% upside.
- Microsoft’s Majorana 1 chip powers chemistry research applications and carries a Strong Buy rating with 56.62% potential upside.
- Alphabet’s Google released research suggesting blockchain encryption could be compromised by quantum algorithms as early as 2029.
- Industry analysts forecast the quantum computing sector will surge from $1.42 billion in 2024 to $4.24 billion by 2030.
Quantum computing has transitioned from theoretical research into tangible commercial applications at an accelerating pace. For investors monitoring this emerging sector, three companies emerge as particularly compelling: IonQ, IBM, and Microsoft.
The quantum computing industry reached a valuation of $1.42 billion in 2024. Market researchers anticipate this figure will climb to $4.24 billion by the decade’s end. Such explosive expansion is attracting enterprise clients, lucrative government partnerships, and substantial capital investments.
IonQ: Prioritizing Precision Over Speed
IonQ has established itself as the premier pure-play quantum computing enterprise. The company’s technology recently achieved an unprecedented 99.99% fidelity rating in industry-standard benchmarking tests—a global achievement.
Precision represents the fundamental obstacle preventing quantum computing’s mainstream adoption. Systems plagued by frequent computational errors cannot deliver reliable results for practical applications.
IonQ’s approach centers on trapped ion technology. This methodology prioritizes exceptional accuracy over raw processing velocity, contrasting sharply with the superconducting architectures favored by competitors.
The organization’s 2026 roadmap includes deploying a 256-qubit architecture. Looking further ahead, IonQ aims to construct million-qubit systems by 2030. Successfully achieving these milestones while maintaining current accuracy standards could position the company as dominant in precision-dependent sectors.
IonQ’s quantum systems are accessible through partnerships with Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud. The company currently commands approximately $11 billion in market capitalization.
IBM: Bridging Quantum and Traditional Computing
IBM has charted a distinctive strategic course. Instead of solely pursuing qubit quantity, the tech giant emphasizes integrating quantum capabilities into established enterprise infrastructure.
International Business Machines Corporation, IBM
IBM’s development strategy centers on hybrid architectures where conventional CPUs, GPUs, and quantum processors operate cohesively. Industry experts consider this integration model the most viable pathway toward immediate commercial viability.
TipRanks analysts awarded IBM the platform’s maximum Smart Score of 10 out of 10. The stock maintains a Moderate Buy consensus rating, with Wall Street projecting 40.49% appreciation potential.
IBM leverages its extensive enterprise computing heritage and established client relationships, providing immediate market access for quantum services. The company’s development pipeline emphasizes enhanced qubit coherence and sophisticated error correction protocols.
Microsoft: Strategic Innovation with Transformative Potential
Microsoft has maintained a relatively understated public profile regarding quantum achievements compared to rivals like Google or IonQ. Nevertheless, its Majorana 1 quantum processor is delivering measurable outcomes.
The processor currently facilitates advanced chemistry research, enabling quantum simulations of intricate molecular behaviors that exceed classical computing capabilities. CEO Satya Nadella has characterized quantum technology as the forthcoming catalyst for cloud computing evolution.
Microsoft’s research concentrates on topological qubit architectures—a forward-looking methodology promising superior stability compared to existing quantum systems. The company’s Azure Quantum platform seamlessly embeds quantum capabilities into corporate computing environments.
Wall Street analysts assign Microsoft a Strong Buy recommendation with 56.62% upside potential. The stock holds a Smart Score of eight out of ten on TipRanks.
Alphabet’s Google division released 2025 research demonstrating an algorithm potentially capable of compromising contemporary blockchain encryption protocols in minutes—possibly operational by 2029. This revelation emphasizes the remarkable velocity of quantum computing advancement.
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