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China holiday spending sends a strong signal on consumer stimulus plans

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China's consumption sector will compliment the over-crowded AI theme: CIO

People watch performances to welcome the ‘God of Wealth’ during Lunar New Year festivities at Qianmen Street in Beijing, China, on February 21, 2026.

Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

BEIJING — China’s consumer market is recovering — just enough that policymakers likely won’t need to roll out the large-scale stimulus that investors have long hoped for.

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The nine-day Lunar New Year, which ended Monday, saw a steady rise in spending across the country, from hotel bookings to duty-free shopping. Rail travel hit a record of over 18.7 million passengers in a single day.

The better-than-expected data suggest that Beijing’s recent support measures are effective, while underscoring a broader consumer trend: spending on experiences such as travel and entertainment is still picking up faster than traditional goods, CCB International Securities said in a report Tuesday.

China’s retail sales have remained sluggish since the pandemic. Unlike the U.S., which handed out cash to consumers, Beijing has instead offered trade-in programs and vouchers. Chinese authorities have increasingly emphasized the need to boost consumers’ incomes, but have yet to release details.

That’s not likely to change soon.

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China's consumption sector will compliment the over-crowded AI theme: CIO

“Policymakers are likely to build on the positive [holiday] momentum and introduce targeted, incremental easing around the March Two Sessions to stabilize expectations and sustain the recovery,” the CCB analysts said, referring to the annual parliamentary meetings that kicks off next week.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang is set to announce the year’s economic targets and policy priorities on March 5.

Still price-conscious

Despite the travel rebound, consumers remained price sensitive. Nationwide, tourism trips per day grew by 5.7% on average from a year ago, in line with 2025, according to official holiday figures released late Tuesday. Even though spending climbed by 5.5%, it slowed from 7% in 2025.

“Such trends reflect better sentiment from a longer holiday, but consumers remained budget cautious in general,” Morgan Stanley Equity Analyst Lillian Lou said in a report Wednesday.

In a sign of persistent deflationary pressure, the holiday recorded a 0.2% drop in average spend per tourist trip compared with a year ago, according to CNBC’s analysis of official data.

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To boost consumer spending, China extended the official holiday period by one day compared with last year. Many people also took personal leave around the holiday, suggesting the official figures may not capture the entire spending picture.

“The extended holiday encouraged families to travel together,” Jihong He, chief strategy officer at H World Group, one of China’s largest hotel operators, said in a statement.

“That shift is driving demand for larger rooms and family-friendly configurations designed for shared experiences,” He said.

H World operates more than 12,000 hotels across over 30 brands in mainland China. For the Lunar New Year, the company said the top 10 destinations, with hotel occupancy rates of 90% or higher, were all located in southern or coastal cities, including Sanya in the tropical island province of Hainan.

China in December expanded a zero-tariff policy for the island to encourage duty-free luxury goods purchases within the mainland. Official figures showed Hainan’s holiday-period duty-free sales rose 30.8% from a year ago to 2.72 billion yuan ($400 million).

Alibaba-owned travel booking platform Fliggy said bookings for hotel and theme park packages during the holiday season more than doubled from last year. More remote, scenic destinations such as Altay in Xinjiang and Pu’er in Yunnan also saw bookings more than double, the company said.

Government support

China has sought to promote its growing services sector. This month, the National Bureau of Statistics disclosed that it was giving more weight to services in its consumer price index than in the previous base period in 2020.

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Even consumer goods in China are increasingly oriented towards dining and social activities, Bruce Pang, adjunct associate professor at CUHK Business School, said in Chinese remarks translated by CNBC.

The key to consumption recovery is confidence in income and employment prospects, he said, rather than shopping promotions. Policymakers should place greater emphasis on those long-term issues, Pang added.

In the fall, China’s top leaders pledged to boost consumption over the next five years, and have subsequently said the country will prioritize domestic demand.

Local governments in China issued more than 2.05 billion yuan in consumption vouchers and subsidies ahead of the holiday, CCB analysts said, “effectively putting a floor under demand.”

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However, prioritizing consumption does not necessarily signal sweeping stimulus, said Liqian Ren, director of Modern Alpha at U.S.-based fund manager WisdomTree.

Instead, Beijing appears focused on preventing consumption growth from slipping below a certain level, Ren noted, indicating sector growth of roughly 2% to 3%.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Taps $66k as Stock Divergence Hints at a BTC Price Rally

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Bitcoin Taps $66k as Stock Divergence Hints at a BTC Price Rally

Bitcoin (BTC) rallied toward $66,000 after Tuesday’s gains in the US stock market, as cryptocurrencies sought to halt their 2026 slump.  

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin rallied above $66,000 on Wednesday, recovering alongside US stocks.

  • Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index flipped positive amid $258 million in ETF inflows.

  • While BTC’s correlation with stocks and gold is at its weakest since 2022, it historically signaled significant upside upon reversion.

BTC/USD hourly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

BTC price recovers in tandem with US equities

Bitcoin’s recovery Wednesday aligns closely with similar rebounds in the US stock market, with AI and tech stocks leading the market higher.

Source: The Kobeissi Letter

The tech-focused Nasdaq led the recovery with 1.05% daily gains, while the S&P 500 rose 0.68%. The Dow locked in a 421-point gain, closing the trading day on Tuesday 0.86% higher.

Related: Bitcoin bounces to $66K as rumors swirl over Jane Street selling algorithm

Crypto-related stocks also saw moderate gains, with crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) rising by 1.12% and Strategy (MSTR) gaining 0.73%.

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24-hour performance of US stocks. Source: Financial Visualizations

The swift recovery of US equity markets appears to have played a role in easing negative pressure on crypto investors looking to cut risk asset exposure. 

This is evidenced by the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index, a metric that tracks the price difference between BTC on Coinbase and Binance, which has flipped positive for the first time since Jan. 15.

This means “US buyers are stepping in,” said analyst Nic in a post on Wednesday, adding that the index needs to stay positive to ensure sustained buying pressure. 

Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium Index. Source: CoinGlass

The return of demand in the US was also reflected by Bitcoin ETFs, which recorded $258 million in net inflows on Tuesday.

Bitcoin won’t stay disconnected forever: Analysis

Bitcoin, which is often viewed as a risk asset in the short term, has frequently moved in tandem with the stock market, particularly the S&P 500.

The past six months have seen a sustained period of this correlation breaking. The daily correlation coefficient index between BTC price and the US benchmark index, the S&P 500 index, is currently 0.32, and -0.45 with gold.

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Bitcoin vs. S&P 500’s and gold daily correlation coefficient. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

“Since late August, gold has surged +51%, the S&P 500 has gained +7%, and Bitcoin has fallen -43%,” onchain data provider Santiment said in a recent post on X.  

This marks the weakest correlation between Bitcoin and stocks since the FTX chaos in late 2022.

“Historically, when an asset that is usually correlated breaks away in this dramatic fashion, it typically does not stay disconnected forever,” Santiment said, adding:

“In the long term, this unusual separation actually argues for significant upside for Bitcoin and altcoins.”

Cryptocurrencies, Gold, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Stocks, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, S&P 500, Bitcoin ETF, ETF
Bitcoin correlation with stocks and gold. Source: Santiment

If Bitcoin returns to its historical pattern of tracking equities during economic expansions, “it may have significant room to catch up,” Santiment concluded.

This view was echoed by the founder and CIO of trading company QCP Capital, Darius Sit, who argued that the “Bitcoin vs. gold” debate is often misread as a price contest, when the “more important driver is liquidity and market structure.”

The divergence between stocks and BTC “reflects position unwinds and leverage-driven flows, not a failure of Bitcoin’s longer-term narrative,” Sit said, adding:

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“Bitcoin still behaves like a long-term inflation hedge and an increasingly legible form of collateral.”

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s adoption by institutions, banks, merchants, public companies and nation-states surged in 2025, confirming it as a maturing asset class for investors.