Nearly $3 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire today at 08:00 UTC on Deribit, placing derivatives markets under intense scrutiny.

Going into today’s options expiry, interest will be on whether the recent price stabilization marks a temporary pause or the beginning of a new directional move.

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$3 Billion Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expiry Tests Market Nerves After Liquidation Shock

As of this writing, Bitcoin was trading at $66,372, with a max pain around $74,000 and total notional open interest exceeding $2.53 billion.

Ethereum, meanwhile, is trading near $1,950, with approximately $425 million in notional open interest and a max-pain level around $2,100.

These figures suggest that a large share of open positions would benefit if prices drifted higher toward max pain levels, but sentiment in the options market remains cautious.

Despite the recent rebound from last week’s sharp sell-off, options metrics suggest traders are still hedging against downside risk.

Analysts at Laevitas noted that Bitcoin’s risk reversals remain heavily skewed toward puts.

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“BTC 1-week and 1-month 25-delta RRs have recovered from extreme lows but remain notably negative at approximately −13 and −11 vols, respectively, indicating persistent demand for downside protection,” the derivatives analyst stated.

Risk reversals are widely used to gauge sentiment in derivatives markets. Meanwhile, sustained negative readings typically signal that traders are paying a premium for protective puts, often reflecting fears of further declines.

Liquidations, Put Skew Shock, and a Fragile Shift Toward Calls as Expiry Nears

The current cautious tone follows a dramatic market event in which Bitcoin briefly fell below $70,000, triggering widespread liquidations and extreme derivatives imbalances.

Analysts at Deribit said the move caused one of the most pronounced shifts toward put (sales) demand seen in years.

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“BTC broke $70K last week, triggering cascading liquidations, and one of the most extreme put skew moves in years before bouncing back toward the 67K range,” Deribit analysts said.

Such events often leave a lasting psychological impact on markets, with traders remaining defensive even after prices stabilize.

More recently, however, derivatives positioning has begun to shift, with some traders rotating back into call (purchase) options as volatility declines from panic levels. Deribit analysts observed that the market is now at a critical inflection point.

Options expiries of this size can sometimes exert short-term gravitational effects on price, especially when large clusters of open interest are concentrated near specific strike levels.

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While short-term positioning has improved, some indicators suggest institutional traders remain skeptical about the medium-term outlook.

Analysts at Greeks.live reported that put options continue to dominate activity in Bitcoin derivatives markets.

“Put options continue to dominate the market, with over $1 billion in BTC put options traded today, accounting for 37% of the total volume. The majority of these are out-of-the-money options priced between $60,000 and $65,000,” the analysts said.

This indicates that institutions have a negative outlook for the medium- to long-term market trajectory. According to the analysts, there is a strong expectation of a bearish trend within the next one to two months

The settlement of today’s options expiry could relieve pressure and stabilize markets. However, it could also be the catalyst for another bout of volatility heading into the weekend.

Chainalysis has released a detailed assessment showing a notable uptick in crypto flows tied to suspected human trafficking networks, with an 85% rise in 2025 and transaction volumes reaching hundreds of millions of dollars across identified services. The report highlights networks largely rooted in Southeast Asia and intertwined with scam compounds, online casinos, and Chinese-language money-laundering rings that have gained momentum as crypto adoption broadens. Notably, the study emphasizes that the choice of asset varies by service, with some operators leaning on stablecoins for cross-border payments. While the numbers are concerning, Chainalysis argues that the transparency of blockchains also creates actionable choke points for enforcement.

Among the opaque channels identified are Telegram-based services that facilitate international escorts, labor-placement schemes that allegedly coerce victims into work at scam compounds, prostitution networks, and vendors distributing material related to child sexual abuse. The research underscores that, in practice, payment methods diverge across illicit networks: international escort services and prostitution networks have shown a pronounced reliance on stablecoins, while other segments employ a broader mix of on- and off-ramp techniques. The report’s granular look at asset-type inflows and wallet behavior aims to give investigators and compliance teams new signals to pursue.

Chainalysis stresses that blockchain’s traceability can be a powerful tool for law enforcement. By identifying transaction patterns, monitoring compliance at exchanges, and pinpointing chokepoints in the ecosystem, authorities can disrupt bad actors in ways that cash or traditional remittance systems cannot. This is particularly relevant as illicit online marketplaces and money-laundering networks continue to adapt to shifting regulatory landscapes and evolving crypto offerings. The report also points readers to related work on the broader crypto-laundering landscape and how on-chain analytics are changing the enforcement playbook.

As a case in point, the firm notes several enforcement successes last year, including German authorities dismantling a child sexual exploitation platform, an operation that Chainalysis said was aided by blockchain analysis. The finding illustrates how coordinated usage of on-chain data can assist in tracing the flow of funds across multiple layers of a criminal network, from on-ramps to marketplaces to end-services. Chainalysis also emphasizes the need for ongoing vigilance by compliance teams and law enforcement to monitor for patterns such as high-frequency transfers to labor-placement entities, wallet clusters that operate across multiple illicit categories, and stablecoin conversion activity that appears routine rather than incidental.

Key takeaways

• 2025 crypto flows to suspected human trafficking networks surged by 85%, with total transaction volume reaching hundreds of millions of dollars across identified services.
• Southeast Asia emerges as a central hub for these networks, which are tied to scam compounds, online casinos, and Chinese-language money-laundering networks.
• Seemingly disparate services—Telegram-based international escorts, labor-placement agents, prostitution networks, and vendors supplying illicit content—rely on a mix of assets, with stablecoins favored for cross-border payments in several cases.
• Blockchain’s transparency is framed as a diagnostic and disruption tool: it can reveal transaction patterns, flag large or anomalous activity, and help block or slow illicit flows at exchanges and at online marketplaces.
• Law enforcement achievements, such as the German takedown of a child exploitation platform aided by blockchain forensics, demonstrate the practical leverage of on-chain analytics in complex investigations.
• The report calls for heightened monitoring by compliance teams—watching for regular, large-payments to labor-placement services, wallet clusters spanning illicit categories, and recurring stablecoin conversions—as part of a broader AML framework.

Market context: The findings sit against a backdrop of growing regulatory interest in on-chain analytics, the expanding use of stablecoins, and ongoing scrutiny of cross-border crypto payments. As governments and financial institutions seek robust AML controls, analytics firms and exchanges are increasingly integrating sophisticated tracing tools to deter illicit finance while balancing user privacy and legitimate use cases. The evolving regulatory environment underscores the value—and the limits—of blockchain transparency in addressing criminal finance without stifling legitimate innovation.

Why it matters

The report illustrates a fundamental tension in the crypto economy: the same technologies that enable rapid, borderless financial activity can also facilitate harm if left unchecked. For users and investors, the message is clear—transparency tools are becoming a standard part of risk assessment, and due diligence now increasingly hinges on on-chain behaviors and counterparties. For builders and product teams, the emphasis on compliance signals a growing demand for wallet- and exchange-level controls, better KYC/AML workflows, and clearer disclosures around illicit-risk indicators.

For policymakers, the analysis reinforces the need for clear guidelines on stablecoins and cross-border settlements, as these instruments appear in multiple illicit-use cases. The data also supports continued investment in cross-agency cooperation and international information sharing, given that many of these networks operate across different jurisdictions and platforms. At a technical level, the findings encourage further development of attribution methodologies that preserve user privacy while enabling lawful investigators to trace criminal flows. In short, the study adds to a growing body of evidence that on-chain data can augment traditional investigative methods, but it must be integrated within a broader, well-governed framework.

For the broader crypto ecosystem, the emphasis on chokepoints and wallet clusters highlights practical avenues for disruption: exchanges can improve real-time monitoring, on-chain analytics can be used to flag risky counterparties, and marketplaces can adopt stricter seller verification and payment-processing controls. The convergence of enforcement and technology is likely to shape how illicit activity is funded and how quickly it can be identified and neutralized, potentially reducing the latency between crime and detection in a space historically challenged by anonymity and speed.

What to watch next

• Follow-up updates from Chainalysis on 2026 data and trend analysis, including any revisions to the 2025 figures.
• Regulatory actions targeting stablecoins and cross-border crypto payments, particularly in Southeast Asia and Europe.
• Adoption of enhanced AML controls by exchanges and online marketplaces in response to on-chain‑driven findings.
• Investigations and public disclosures related to large wallet clusters that span multiple illicit services or jurisdictions.
• Further enforcement actions demonstrated or inspired by blockchain-forensic capabilities, such as high-profile takedowns and asset-tracing successes.

Sources & verification

• Chainalysis blog post: crypto-human-trafficking-2026
• Crypto-launderers turning away from centralized exchanges: Chainalysis coverage
• Blockchain forensics and asset tracking explainer
• Related investigative reporting on enforcement actions and policy context

Blockchain visibility and illicit finance: what the findings imply

Chainalysis’s report underscores how on-chain visibility can illuminate the pathways by which crypto assets are moved to support trafficking and exploitation. By charting flows into labor-placement operations, escort services, and adult services that rely on cross-border payments, investigators can identify recurring patterns that mark a network’s lifecycle—from onboarding to monetization. The emphasis on stablecoins in particular reflects how certain assets are chosen to minimize friction across borders, optimize settlement times, and obscure the origin and destination of funds in less-regulated corridors.

Yet the study also warns against overreliance on any single signal. Illicit actors adapt, and the same tools that reveal patterns can be misapplied if not paired with traditional investigative methods and robust governance. The combination of blockchain analytics with proactive compliance, inter-agency collaboration, and targeted enforcement represents a pragmatic approach to mitigating on-chain risks without dampening legitimate innovation in the crypto economy.

XRP price is hovering near $1.35 as markets closely watch the January U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due later today.

Economists expect headline inflation to tick slightly higher on a month-over-month basis. Annual inflation is projected to land in the 2.5% range. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, is also expected to show sticky price pressures.

If CPI comes in hotter than expected, it could reduce the chances of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. That would likely strengthen the U.S. dollar and weigh on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies like the Ripple token (XRP).

A softer-than-expected print, however, could boost expectations of monetary easing and trigger a relief rally across crypto markets.

XRP price prediction and key levels

XRP is currently trading around $1.35, down roughly 0.6% on the day, according to the daily price chart.

The chart shows a clear downtrend since early January. XRP failed to hold above the $2.20–$2.30 region and has printed a series of lower highs and lower lows. The price is trading well below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which sits near $1.84, signaling continued bearish momentum.

The recent sharp sell-off toward the $1.20 zone was followed by a brief rebound, but upside momentum has faded. Candles are now compressing near the $1.35 level, suggesting indecision ahead of the CPI release.

The Chaikin Money Flow indicator is currently around -0.12, remaining in negative territory. This indicates capital outflows and weak buying pressure, reinforcing the bearish bias.

For the XRP price, immediate support lies near $1.30, followed by the recent swing low around $1.20. A break below $1.20 could open the door toward the psychological $1.00 level.

On the upside, initial resistance sits near $1.40, with stronger resistance at the 50-day SMA around $1.84.

A hotter CPI reading could push XRP below $1.30 and retest $1.20. A softer inflation print may spark a rebound toward $1.40 and potentially $1.60 in the short term.

Crypto treasury company ETHZilla has launched a token offering access to equity in jet engines that the company acquired last month as part of its pivot into tokenized assets.

ETHZilla said on Thursday that the token, called Eurus Aero Token I, was being launched through its new subsidiary, ETHZilla Aerospace, and is backed by two commercial jet engines that are leased to “a leading US air carrier.”

The company has priced each token at $100, with a minimum purchase of 10 tokens. ETHZilla said it’s targeting an 11% return rate based on holding it for the full term of the engine leases that extend into 2028.

ETHZilla was formerly a clinical-stage biotech company called 180 Life Sciences Corp that pivoted to buying and holding Ether (ETH) in July amid a frenzy of new crypto treasury companies at the time.

ETHZilla chairman and CEO McAndrew Rudisill said the project “expands investment access and modernizes fractional asset ownership in markets that have historically been available only to institutional credit and private equity.”

“Offering a token backed by engines leased to one of the largest and most profitable US airlines serves as a strong use case in applying blockchain infrastructure to aviation assets with contracted cash flows and global investment demand,” he added.

ETHZilla shifting away from crypto treasury

Rudisill said in December ETHZilla is moving away from just buying and holding ETH and aims to build a business that brings assets on-chain through tokenization.

Crypto treasury companies experienced significant growth and hype last year, but enthusiasm has since started to cool across the market.  

ETHZilla purchased the two jet engines for a combined $12.2 million in January, after selling off some of its ETH stash last year.