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Could a 220% BTC Rally Follow?

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Crypto Breaking News

Bitcoin has paused near recent highs, trading south of $69,000 as markets digest a period of consolidation after a volatile move that saw a dip to $60,000 followed by a rally to $72,000. Analysts note that price indicators have shifted into what some describe as a deep-value zone, prompting renewed debate about whether buyers will step in at these levels. Behind the scenes, researchers rely on two long-running metrics—realized price bands and a power-law quantile framework—that together frame the asset’s potential next leg. Taken together, these measures point to a broad, data-driven picture of accumulation forming at multiple support bands.

Key takeaways

  • Bitcoin’s realized price bands align with a long-term accumulation zone that has preceded major price advances in prior cycles.
  • The shifted realized price sits near $42,000 while the current realized price hovers around $55,000, signaling a structural support window roughly between $40,000 and $55,000 with potential upside if the pattern repeats.
  • The power-law quantile model places BTC near the 14th percentile of its long-term log–log price corridor, suggesting a period of relative undervaluation after a cycle peak that could reach toward $210,000 in 2025 per the model.
  • History shows rallies often follow a re-test of these bands, implying meaningful upside potential—roughly 170%–220%—in the next bullish phase and targets above $150,000.
  • Consolidation after testing these zones has typically stretched six to eight months before the market resumes its upward trajectory toward new highs.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC

Sentiment: Neutral

Market context: The current price dynamics unfold within a broader crypto environment where on-chain signals and valuation models increasingly inform timing. As liquidity ebbs and flows, accumulation zones identified by realized price bands and corroborated by long-term percentile analyses offer a framework for understanding potential inflection points, even as near-term moves remain uncertain.

Why it matters

For long-term holders and traders alike, the convergence of realized price bands with a low percentile reading from the power-law framework adds nuance to market timing. The near-term picture depicts a tug-of-war between downside risk—as implied by lower-bound scenarios in the $40k–$50k range—and the prospect of a broader upcycle should accumulation hold and demand re-emerge. This dynamic matters because it shapes risk budgeting and entry points during periods of sector-wide caution.

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Beyond price, the implications ripple through market infrastructure and product design. If these bands function as gravity wells, participants in mining, staking, and decentralized finance may recalibrate risk models and deployment schedules in anticipation of a sustained rebound. The research also underscores the value of on-chain metrics that anchor sentiment, especially when macro conditions remain uncertain and with the possibility of regime shifts in liquidity and risk appetite.

Analysts emphasize that the synthesis of historical patterns with current readings still requires prudence. While the path to new highs has historically followed a phase of accumulation, each cycle contains unique catalysts and macro-tempo changes that can alter outcomes. The narrative around realized price bands and percentile positioning should therefore be viewed as one tool among many in assessing future trajectories, rather than as a guaranteed roadmap.

What to watch next

  • Watch for Bitcoin price testing and holding the $55,000 area as a critical inflection point over the next several weeks.
  • Monitor how often the price re-tests the realized price bands; a sustained move above the mid-$50ks would bolster the case for continued accumulation.
  • Pay attention to the alignment with the power-law percentile, particularly if readings settle within the $50,000–$62,000 corridor, described as a long-term support floor in prior cycles.
  • Observe any shifts in the BTC/Gold ratio or related macro indicators that could signal a risk-off or risk-on tilt, which would influence the timing of any durable bottom and subsequent rally.

Sources & verification

  • On-chain realized price and shifted realized price concepts used to identify long-term accumulation zones and their historical relevance.
  • The visual mapping of monthly price zones based on realized price bands, with sources cited to TradingView.
  • The power-law quantile model’s positioning of BTC around the 14th percentile and its implied target near $210,000 in 2025, as discussed by the model’s proponents.
  • Related discussion referencing large BTC holders and macro conditions as part of the broader context of market bottoms and pullbacks.

Market reaction and key details

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has cooled after a volatile stretch, trading just below the $69,000 mark as market participants digest the move from a dip to $60,000 and a subsequent push back toward the $70,000 level. The retreat comes as analysts revisit two on-chain gauges that have historically framed long-run value zones. Realized price, which tracks the average cost basis of BTC the last time it moved on-chain, and its shifted counterpart, which smooths this signal forward in time, are currently signaling a broad accumulation range. In practical terms, this means that the market is tracking a price floor around the mid-$40,000s to mid-$50,000s, with the potential for outsized upside if history repeats itself and buyers re-enter the market en masse.

The current readings place realized price near $55,000 and the shifted realized price around $42,000, reinforcing the idea that a robust support base is forming amid a broader pattern of value-driven accumulation. A chart illustrating these zones, which connects monthly price action to realized-price bands, is available via the linked visualization (Cointelegraph/TradingView) and provides a historical lens on how retests of these bands have historically preceded meaningful rallies. For readers curious about the visual, the chart references BTCUSDT on TradingView.

Beyond the realized-price framework, another analytic approach gaining attention is a power-law quantile model popularized by BTC researcher Giovanni Santostasi. The latest update places BTC near the 14th percentile of a long-term log–log price corridor, suggesting a phase of relative undervaluation after a cycle peak that the model projected could reach as high as $210,000 in 2025. This confluence—price trading near realized bands and a low percentile reading on the long-term corridor—has historically coincided with recoveries, even as the structure permits the possibility of further drawdowns in the near term. The model’s $210,000 target underscores the scale of potential upside that such a framework envisions, even as the timing remains uncertain.

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The discourse is not without caution. Observers such as Jelle (CryptoJelleNL) have pointed to periods where the BTC price has fallen around 31% from a prior RSI-based breakout, warning that a retracement toward the $52,000s could occur before a durable bottom takes hold. Another analyst, Sherlock, has flagged a breakdown in the BTC/Gold ratio below recent support, a condition that has previously coincided with transitions into bearish phases. In light of these signals, some analysts argue that a deeper retest—potentially into the $38,000–$40,000 region—remains plausible if historical patterns repeat. Still, the broader narrative remains that a test of the realized bands could, if met with a sustained bid, propel BTC into the next leg of its cycle.

As markets weigh these views, traders will be watching for alignment between on-chain signals and price action. The convergence of the realized-price framework with percentile positioning offers a structured lens through which to assess risk and potential catalysts, even as external factors continue to influence risk sentiment across the crypto space. The discussion around Bitcoin’s long-term value, and how that value translates into price, remains highly dependent on a delicate balance of on-chain activity, macro conditions, and investor appetite for risk.

Related: Bitcoin holders sell 245K BTC in tight macro conditions: Did the market bottom?

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Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Tom Lee-Backed Bitmine Controls 3.6% of Ethereum Supply After Price Crash

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In a risky but potentially rewarding play, Ethereum treasury company Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) has become the largest corporate holder of ETH, now controlling 3.6% of the total supply after aggressively buying the dip.

The firm, backed by Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, purchased an additional 40,613 Ether last week as prices collapsed toward $1,700, bringing Bitmine’s total treasury to over 4.3 million tokens despite sitting on massive unrealized losses from its ETH portfolio, which holds 4.3 million tokens at an average price of $3,826.

Key Takeaways
  • Bitmine added 40,613 ETH during the crash, bringing total holdings to 4.3 million tokens.
  • The firm now controls roughly 3.6% of the total circulating Ethereum supply.
  • Unrealized losses exceed $7.8 billion with an average entry price of $3,826.

Bitmine Ethereum Accumulation Strategy Explained

Led by Chairman Tom Lee, Bitmine pivoted from mining for Bitcoin to an Ethereum-exclusive treasury strategy in mid-2025 with a goal to eventually acquire 5% of the total ETH supply.

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The company sees temporary market downturns as acquisition opportunities rather than setbacks, mirroring high-conviction plays seen in broader crypto selloff contexts.

“Bitmine has been steadily buying Ethereum… given the strengthening fundamentals,” Lee stated in a press release, countering concerns about the firm’s $7.8 billion paper loss.

Lee argues that current prices do not reflect Ethereum’s utility as the “future of finance,” positioning the firm for long-term dominance despite the immediate pain on its balance sheet.

What 3.6% Supply Control Means for Ethereum Markets

Bitmine’s total stack now sits at approximately $8.7 billion based on current prices hovering just above $2,000.

On-chain data indicates the firm bought the latest tranche of 40,613 tokens as ETH plunged from $2,300 to lows of $1,700.

Unlike purely speculative holders, Bitmine leverages its position for yield; nearly 2.9 million of its tokens are currently staked, generating an estimated $202 million in annualized rewards at current prices.

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While investors continue pouring capital into the sector despite the wipeout, Bitmine’s sheer scale allows it to absorb significant liquidity during panic events.

The company plans to launch MAVAN, a proprietary U.S.-based validator network, to potentially stake its entire holding and maximize yield generation.

bitwise Ethereum holdings
At its height, Bitmine’s ETH treasury was worth over $14 billion. Source: DropsTab

How Bitcoin’s Concentration of Ethereum Could Affect ETH Price

The concentration of such a vast amount of Ether in a single corporate entity raises questions about market influence and liquidation risks.

While Lee predicts a V-shaped recovery, the firm remains deeply underwater with an average purchase price of $3,826. This resilience stands in stark contrast to other institutional players; for instance, Trend Research slashed Ether holdings to cover loans during the same market crash.

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If Bitmine sustains its position without forced selling, it removes substantial supply from the market, potentially accelerating price appreciation if demand returns.

The post Tom Lee-Backed Bitmine Controls 3.6% of Ethereum Supply After Price Crash appeared first on Cryptonews.

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Cardano price gets oversold, crashes to key suppport level

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Cardano price

The Cardano price continued its strong downward trend, reaching its lowest level since October 2023, making it one of the crypto industry’s top laggards.

Summary

  • Cardano price dropped to a crucial support level this week.
  • The developers are working on Pentad, which aims to grow the ecosystem.
  • The coin has become highly oversold, with the RSI moving to 28.

Cardano (ADA), a top layer-1 network, slipped to $0.2640, down over 80% from its December 2024 peak and 91% below its all-time high of $3 in 2021.

ADA extended its sharp decline despite several major catalysts, including this week’s CME futures launch and the upcoming Midnight mainnet debut. The futuress product made it available to American retail and institutional investors. 

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Midnight, its upcoming zero-knowledge sidechain, is expected to launch either later this month or in March. Data shows that its testnet continues to perform well, having handled over 185,000 blocks and 295 million slots. NIGHT, its native token, has achieved a market capitalization of over $800 million.

Cardano’s developers are working to fix the network and attract more creators. They are working on the Leios upgrade, which will make it a faster network than many popular chains. 

At the same time, they are implementing the Pentad program, which aims to attract more oracle network, tier-1 stablecoins like USDT and USDC, and analytics tools. It has already attracted Pyth Network, a top oracle network, and Dune, a popular analytics tool.

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Therefore, Cardano price is falling because of the ongoing crypto market crash, which has affected Bitcoin and most altcoins. 

Cardano price prediction: technical analysis

Cardano price
ADA price chart | Source: crypto.news

The weekly timeframe chart shows that ADA token has continued falling in the past few months. It has slumped from a high of $1.3230 in December 2024 to the current $0.2638.

The coin has dropped below the 50-week Exponential Moving Average, a sign that bears remain in control. Also, Cardano token has settled at the key support at $0.2212, the neckline of the head-and-shoulders pattern.

ADA has become oversold, with the Relative Strength Index at 28, the oversold level. The Stochastic Oscillator has also moved below the oversold line. 

Therefore, the coin may rebound in the coming days, potentially to the psychological level of $0.50. However, a drop below the current support level at $0.2212 will confirm more downside, potentially to $0.15.

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X reportedly tells Justin Sun’s ex she isn’t real

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X reportedly tells Justin Sun’s ex she isn’t real

Justin Sun’s alleged ex-girlfriend claims that her X account was taken down after a large number of people reported that it wasn’t being run by “a real person.”

A screenshot shared by crypto investor Yijin Li, appears to show Ten Ten, real name Zeng Ying, sharing an email from X regarding the suspension. 

In the screenshot (translated with Google Translate), Ten Ten says, “Hilarious! Twitter suspended my account because ‘it wasn’t a real person using it.’”

She claims that she checked the account suspension and discovered it was enforced because “of a large number of reports received in a short period of time.” 

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Ten Ten previously accused Justin Sun of orchestrating a misinformation campaign against her.

According to the post, Sun appears to be aware of the suspension and reached out to Ten Ten to tell her that he didn’t report the account. However, she doubted whether he was telling the truth.

The email from X told her that she can appeal the account freeze, adding that if she attempts to create a new account to avoid the suspension, it will also be frozen. 

Ten Ten claims Sun wash traded TRX

Ten Ten has been a thorn in Justin Sun’s side for the past few weeks after claiming that she’s his former girlfriend and making a slew of other allegations. 

This includes claims that the controversial Tron founder has made millions wash trading his own TRX token by directing his employees to buy and sell large quantities of it in 2017 and 2018.  

Indeed, this is the subject of a lawsuit launched by the SEC in 2023. Ten Ten also says she’s given evidence to the SEC, but whether or not it will affect a case that’s been paused for most of 2025 remains to be seen. 

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Ten Ten also claims that Sun had originally offered to marry her. However, she says she realized this wouldn’t happen when Sun revealed that he was dating Eileen Gu, a freestyle skier who recently won a silver medal at the Winter Olympics.

Read more: FTX estate says Justin Sun still owes it millions

Ten Ten says she decided to open up about Sun’s alleged malpractice after watching him become “an insurmountable gate of corruption and wrongdoing.”

Sun has denied all of Ten Ten’s claims, but was revealed by Ten Ten to have sent her a message implying that their former relationship was real. 

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Protos has reached out to Ten Ten for comment and will update this piece should we hear back.

Got a tip? Send us an email securely via Protos Leaks. For more informed news and investigations, follow us on XBluesky, and Google News, or subscribe to our YouTube channel.

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Dogecoin, Shiba Inu slide as meme coins break key support

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Dogecoin, Shiba Inu slide as meme coins break key support levels - 2

Dogecoin fell 4% and Shiba Inu dropped 2% on Tuesday, with both meme coins accelerating lower after breaking key support levels.

Summary

  • Dogecoin broke below the $0.10 level, confirming bearish momentum with resistance at $0.105–$0.12.
  • Support sits at $0.08, potentially falling to $0.07 if downward pressure continues.
  • Shiba Inu trades near $0.00000552 with extreme selling pressure, a bearish Supertrend at $0.00000753, and broken support zones; token burns offer partial support, but recovery requires reclaiming $0.00000700.

DOGE broke below the $0.10 psychological level, signaling a significant technical failure. The Supertrend at $0.11958 confirms bearish momentum, while the Parabolic SAR at $0.10544 acts as resistance.

Dogecoin, Shiba Inu slide as meme coins break key support levels - 2
Source: CoinGecko

Selling pressure intensified as DOGE moved toward the lower boundary of its channel. Horizontal support sits around $0.08, but the steep decline suggests strong downward momentum.

Open interest decreased 1.02% to $962.62 million, and options volume plunged 48.58%, reflecting reduced trading activity.

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The Binance long/short ratio of 2.1756 indicates many traders positioned for a bounce are now underwater. Recovery requires DOGE to reclaim $0.10 and break above the Supertrend at $0.12; otherwise, support at $0.08 and potentially $0.07 remains key.

SHIB trades near the lower Bollinger Band at $0.00000552, showing extreme selling pressure. The Supertrend at $0.00000753 is bearish, and the upper Bollinger Band at $0.00000837 marks how far SHIB has fallen.

A descending trendline limits rallies, while previous support zones have been broken. Token burns rose 65.52% in 24 hours with 2.5 million SHIB removed, but 585.45 trillion remain in circulation, offering only partial long-term support.

Dogecoin, Shiba Inu slide as meme coins break key support levels - 3
Source: CoinGecko

Immediate support is $0.00000550-$0.00000600, with a potential drop to $0.00000500 if broken. Recovery needs SHIB to reclaim $0.00000700 and surpass the Supertrend.

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BTC Traders Eye $50K as Possible Bottom: Key Metrics to Watch This Week

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BTC Traders Eye $50K as Possible Bottom: Key Metrics to Watch This Week

Bitcoin traders are glued to one price right now: $50,000.

After a brutal dip that saw prices flash below $60,000 for a hot minute, everyone’s wondering if we’ve finally hit rock bottom.

Yes, Bitcoin price bounced back above $70,000 temporarily, but here’s the thing, nobody’s really convinced this is “the bottom” just yet.

Key Takeaways

  • Analysts warn the recent bounce to $71,000 may be a “bull trap” designed to liquidate shorts before a retest of $50,000 support.
  • JPMorgan data indicates Bitcoin has traded below the estimated miner production cost of $87,000, a historical signal for capitulation.
  • Technical patterns highlight critical support at $67,350, with a breakdown potentially opening the door to the $43,000 region.

Weekly Close Shows Fragility Despite $70K Rebound

Bitcoin found its way back to $71,000 as the week kicked off. However, most find this rally looking sketchy.

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Sure, we saw a 7% bounce from last week’s $60,000 bloodbath, but there’s basically no volatility around the weekly close. And when things look too calm after a crash, traders get suspicious.

Source: Bitcoin Liquidation Heatmap / HYBLOCK

Trader CrypNuevo said on X: this whole move up looks like a calculated play to hunt down short positions stacked between $72,000 and $77,000.

If this “recovery” turns out to be fake, bears have one target in their crosshairs: $50,000.

Miner Costs and Stablecoin Flows Signal Caution

Here’s a number that should make you nervous: $67,000. That’s what it costs miners to produce one Bitcoin.

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BTC might be trading below that soon. Historically, the miner production cost acts like a safety net, prices usually don’t stay below it for long.

if this continues, miners start going broke. And when miners capitulate? They dump their Bitcoin to stay alive, which creates even more sell pressure. It’s a vicious cycle.

While the fundamentals look grim, there’s a massive pile of cash sitting on the sidelines. Stablecoin inflows just doubled to $98 billion.

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They’re ready to buy… they’re just waiting for the right moment.

Next Steps: Bitcoin Price Technical Levels to Watch

Bitcoin (BTC)
24h7d30d1yAll time

Traders are staring down at an interesting moment as inflation data drops this week. Right now, all eyes are on $67,350, that’s the support level holding this whole thing together.

If Bitcoin breaks below that? We’re looking at bearish flag patterns that could drag prices down to $50,000. Yeah, a potential 30%+ dive.

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There’s a bullish scenario too. The magic number is $74,434. If BTC can reclaim and hold above that level, it kills the bearish setup and potentially opens the door back to $80,000.

The post BTC Traders Eye $50K as Possible Bottom: Key Metrics to Watch This Week appeared first on Cryptonews.

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Bitcoin in Focus as State Street Warns Dollar Could Fall 10% on Fed Cuts

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Bitcoin in Focus as State Street Warns Dollar Could Fall 10% on Fed Cuts

Strategists at State Street, one of the world’s largest asset managers, say the US dollar’s worst run in nearly a decade could deepen if the Federal Reserve eases policy more aggressively than markets expect, which is a distinct possibility following a possible leadership change at the central bank. 

Speaking at a conference in Miami, State Street strategist Lee Ferridge said the dollar could decline by as much as 10% this year if financial conditions loosen further. While he described two rate cuts as a “reasonable base case,” he warned that the risks are skewed toward more reductions. “Three is possible,” Ferridge said.

Source: Walter Bloomberg

Lower US interest rates tend to reduce the appeal of dollar-denominated assets, especially for foreign investors. As rate differentials narrow, overseas investors are more likely to increase currency hedging, which involves selling dollars to protect returns. That added hedging demand can amplify downward pressure on the currency.

Dollar weakness could also be tied to Kevin Warsh, US President Donald Trump’s pick to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair. If confirmed, Warsh is widely expected to favor a more aggressive pace of rate cuts.

With the central bank’s current target rate range of 3.50%-3.75%, markets are currently aligned with the more cautious scenario. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, investors are pricing in two rate cuts this year, with the first likely coming in June. Two policy meetings are scheduled before then.

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Federal Reserve, Dollar, Bitcoin Price
June’s FOMC meeting is likely to see the first of two rate cuts this year. Source: CME FedWatch

Related: Bitcoin is trading like a growth asset, not digital gold: Grayscale

Weak dollar seen as catalyst for Bitcoin

A weaker US dollar has often coincided with stronger demand for risk assets, including Bitcoin (BTC) and other digital assets. Analysts frequently point to an inverse relationship between the US Dollar Index and Bitcoin, where periods of dollar softness tend to create a more favorable backdrop for crypto prices.

The US Dollar Index recently touched a four-year low. Source: Bloomberg

A falling dollar can ease financial conditions, boost global liquidity and push investors toward assets seen as alternatives to fiat currencies. That dynamic has helped support Bitcoin during several past dollar downturns.

Still, the relationship is far from automatic. Recent analysis suggests Bitcoin’s short-term performance has not consistently tracked dollar weakness, and in some periods, prices have even fallen alongside declines in the greenback.

Profit-taking, investor positioning, broader risk sentiment and uncertainty around monetary policy can all dampen the impact of currency moves.

Related: Crypto’s 2026 investment playbook: Bitcoin, stablecoin infrastructure, tokenized assets

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