Crypto World
Crypto calm before the storm: BTC bounces, altcoins flounder
Bitcoin flirted with US$60,000 last week before staging a modest recovery, leaving altcoins to nurse bruised egos and investors to wonder if they’re holding the next “dead token.” Meanwhile, AI stocks are stealing capital and attention like a toddler in a candy store. Welcome to crypto’s latest de-risking phase, where patience is as much an asset as Bitcoin itself.
Summary
- Bitcoin dropped roughly 50% from its October 2025 high, with altcoins lagging heavily as investors rotate capital toward AI, defensive narratives, and larger, more durable crypto assets.
- Hawkish Fed expectations, a cooling labor market, and geopolitical uncertainties are limiting liquidity and short-term risk appetite, keeping rate cuts off the table and sustaining volatility.
- Despite the drawdown, institutional participation, stablecoin liquidity, real-world asset tokenization, and DeFi adoption continue to grow, laying the groundwork for medium-term opportunities once market sentiment shifts.
According to a Binance analysis, markets are caught between two powerful forces: a rotation of capital away from speculative crypto bets toward AI and defensive narratives, and a macro backdrop dominated by hawkish Fed expectations, potential government shutdown jitters, and global trade tensions.
The result is a market that’s temporarily favoring durability over hype, forcing smaller tokens to either prove their worth or quietly fade into obscurity. For Bitcoin, this 50% drawdown from last October’s all-time high is more of a cleansing than a collapse—and it may be laying the groundwork for the next chapter.
Investors are learning a lesson in selective attention. As Bitcoin consolidates around US$60,000–65,000, altcoins continue to lag, dragged down by a flood of 2025 token launches. Roughly 11.6 million of the 20.2 million new tokens released last year—many with little to no users or revenue—have already vanished from active trading.
CoinGecko and Binance report that more than half of these new entrants have endured brutal drawdowns, leaving hype-driven speculators nursing losses while projects with real fundamentals fight for visibility.
Yet the long tail isn’t completely dead. Some smaller assets have shown muted moves recently, reflecting that much of the early deleveraging has already occurred. In other words, the selling pressure is tiring—not that buyers are back in force. Meanwhile, equity markets have also repriced risk, particularly in software, where AI-driven disruption has outperformed Bitcoin in relative terms, creating a liquidity tug-of-war between crypto and tech.
The irony?
The same AI narrative driving stocks higher is one of the most compelling use cases for blockchain: machine-speed payments, programmable money, and cross-border settlements. Short-term, AI is siphoning attention. Medium-term, it may become crypto’s most loyal customer.
Macro factors remain the primary driver. January’s U.S. jobs report showed 130,000 new positions and unemployment at 4.3%, superficially encouraging but revealing a weak underlying trend once benchmark revisions for 2025 are considered. The Fed, under incoming chair Kevin Warsh, is unlikely to loosen policy soon, keeping liquidity tight—a headwind for Bitcoin, historically sensitive to shifts in global cash flows.
Despite the drawdown, structural tailwinds persist. Spot BTC ETF assets under management have only modestly declined, hinting at a sticky investor base focused on strategic allocation rather than momentum chasing. Digital asset treasuries, by contrast, are less aggressive buyers, suggesting balance-sheet strategies are becoming more conservative. Stablecoins have remained plentiful, maintaining the plumbing for future on-chain transactions.
Real-world assets (RWAs) and tokenization have become the new safe harbors. Tokenized treasuries, commodities, and yield-focused structures now total nearly US$25 billion, with tokenized gold surging over 50% since the start of 2026. Tether Gold (XAUT) recently exceeded US$2.6 billion in market cap, a reminder that even in a risk-off phase, crypto can find its bedrock.
DeFi continues to converge with traditional finance. BlackRock’s move to make shares of its tokenized U.S. Treasury fund BUIDL tradable via UniswapX, along with its purchase of UNI governance tokens, signals institutional confidence in decentralized infrastructure. Liquidity exists; it’s just selective, waiting for the right catalyst.
Looking ahead, markets remain poised for volatility while macro signals clarify. Bitcoin’s realized price—roughly US$55,000—marks a psychological pivot point, where holders near breakeven can amplify swings. Yet the difference from prior cycles is clear: this is a deeper, structurally stronger market. Stablecoin rails are solid, RWAs are scaling, DeFi adoption continues, and institutions are quietly embedding digital assets into portfolios.
History suggests that when prices compress but fundamentals advance, conviction builds beneath the surface. Once risk reprices, the winners of this patient phase—projects with real utility, institutional backing, or durable narratives—are often the ones to lead the next leg up. In crypto, as in comedy, timing is everything: the punchline comes after the pause.
Solana price has broken its short-term bearish structure, signaling a potential momentum shift that could open the door for a bullish expansion toward the $95 resistance zone.
Summary
- Local bearish trend invalidated, signaling a shift in short-term momentum
- Holding above the value area low supports higher-low formation
- $95 high-timeframe resistance is the next target, if bullish structure persists
Solana (SOL) price action is showing a notable improvement in structure after breaking out of a local bearish downtrend that had controlled price movement for much of the week. This shift marks an important technical development, as Solana has now printed a new high, signalling a potential transition away from short-term bearish control.
While broader market conditions remain mixed, the change in local structure suggests that downside momentum is weakening. If Solana can continue to build acceptance above key value levels, the probability of a sustained move toward higher resistance increases.
Solana price key technical points
- Local bearish market structure has been broken, confirming a higher high
- Value area low remains intact, supporting higher-low formation
- $95 high-timeframe resistance is the next upside target, if momentum persists
The recent price action on Solana has produced a clear break in market structure on the lower timeframes. After a prolonged period of lower highs and lower lows, Solana has now pushed above prior resistance and established a new swing high. This move invalidates the immediate bearish trend and shifts short-term momentum back in favor of buyers.
Market structure breaks are often early signals of trend transitions, particularly when they follow extended consolidations or corrective phases. In Solana’s case, the breakout suggests that sellers are losing control, at least in the short term, and that buyers are becoming more aggressive at current levels.
Holding value area low is critical
Despite the bullish development, confirmation will depend on Solana holding above the value area low. This level represents the lower boundary of fair value within the current range and often serves as a key decision point for whether to continue or fail.
As long as price action remains above this level, Solana has the opportunity to establish a higher low. A higher low would further reinforce the bullish shift in structure and increase confidence that the breakout is sustainable rather than a short-lived reaction.
Failure to hold this level, however, would return Solana to balance and reopen the risk of renewed consolidation or downside rotation.
Higher highs and higher lows shift bias
If Solana continues to print higher highs while defending higher lows, the broader narrative within the current trading range will begin to shift. Multiple higher highs and higher lows would negate the prior bearish bias and suggest that the market is transitioning into a more constructive phase.
Such transitions often occur in stages, with initial breakouts followed by retests and consolidations before larger expansions take place. This underscores the importance of patience, as short-term pullbacks remain healthy within a developing bullish structure.
$95 resistance comes into focus
With the local bearish structure broken, attention now turns to the next major upside level. The $95 region represents a significant high-timeframe resistance area where price previously faced rejection. A move toward this level would align with typical follow-through behavior after a successful structure break.
Reaching $95 would also place Solana back into the upper portion of its broader trading range. How price behaves around this level will be critical in determining whether the rally extends further or transitions into another consolidation phase.
What to expect in the coming price action
From a technical, price action, and market structure perspective, Solana is showing early signs of a bullish continuation. As long as price holds above the value area low and maintains the newly established higher high, the probability favors further upside exploration.
In the near term, traders should expect some volatility as the market digests the structure break. Controlled pullbacks that hold above support would strengthen the bullish case, while a loss of value could delay continuation.
For now, the evidence suggests that Solana’s recent breakout is meaningful. If momentum continues to build, the $95 resistance level stands out as the next key upside target in the current market phase.
Crypto companies and platforms that provide stablecoin rewards have become a major point of contention in the CLARITY crypto market structure bill.
The banking industry should not be threatened by crypto companies offering stablecoin yield to customers, and both sides must compromise on the issue, according to White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt.
Witt said it was “unfortunate” that the issue of stablecoin yield has become a major point of contention between the crypto industry and banks, adding that crypto service providers sharing yield with customers does not threaten the banking industry’s business model or market share. He told Yahoo Finance:
“They can also offer stablecoin products to their customers, just the same as crypto. This is not an unfair advantage in either way, and many banks are now applying for OCC bank charters themselves to start offering bank-like products to their customers.
In the future, I don’t think this is going to be an issue,” he continued, adding, “I think they’re going to find opportunities to use these products and leverage them and offer new products to their customers and expand their businesses.”
The ability of crypto service providers and platforms to offer rewards to customers who hold stablecoins has emerged as one of the most significant pain points for the industry, contributing to delays in passing the CLARITY market structure bill.
Related: White House crypto bill talks ‘productive,’ but no deal yet
Time is running out on passing the CLARITY Act, Witt and others warn
The proposed CLARITY Act establishes clear regulatory jurisdiction over crypto markets between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and also creates an asset taxonomy for cryptocurrencies.
However, government officials and industry executives have warned that the looming 2026 US midterm elections could derail efforts to pass it into law and threaten to roll back crypto regulations established by the administration of US President Donald Trump.
“I think if the Democrats were to take the House, which is far from my best case, then the prospects of getting a deal done will just fall apart,” US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Friday.
“There’s a window here. The window is still open, but it is rapidly closing,” Witt said, adding that the White House Crypto Council is aiming to have the CLARITY Act signed into law before the midterms “take all of the oxygen out of the room.”
Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026
The S&P 500 mounted another early push toward its closing highs on Thursday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 180 points, or 0.4%. The S&P 500 was up 0.4%. The Nasdaq Composite was up 0.4%. The S&P was roughly 10 points away from its highest close on record.
The yield on the 2-year Treasury note fell to 3.52%. The 10-year yield dropped to 4.17%.
TLDR
- IREN has been included in the MSCI USA Index, enhancing its visibility among institutional investors and index-tracking funds.
- The inclusion is expected to trigger automatic buying by index-tracking entities, potentially boosting IREN’s stock in the short term.
- IREN has shifted focus from BTC mining to AI-driven infrastructure, positioning itself as a leader in the tech sector.
- CEO Daniel Roberts believes the MSCI inclusion will broaden institutional access as the company executes its AI Cloud strategy.
- Since the announcement, IREN’s stock has increased by around 7%, reflecting investor optimism despite concerns over recent financial results.
IREN, a company transitioning from a BTC mining operation to a dual-focus entity, has announced its inclusion in the prestigious MSCI USA Index. This move is set to elevate the company’s profile, attracting more institutional investors and index-tracking funds. It is expected to create a short-term surge in the stock price as automatic buying from these entities takes effect.
The inclusion in the MSCI USA Index provides IREN with enhanced visibility. Investors and funds that track the index will now automatically consider IREN as part of their portfolios. This may trigger a short-term surge in its stock value, supporting the company’s broader business goals.
Why MSCI USA Index Inclusion Matters for IREN
Daniel Roberts, Co-Founder and Co-CEO of IREN, expressed that being added to the MSCI USA Index is a sign of the company’s growth. “We believe this milestone will broaden institutional access to IREN as we continue to execute on our AI Cloud strategy,” he said. This inclusion comes as IREN shifts its focus from BTC mining to AI-driven infrastructure, positioning itself as a leader in the tech space.
As IREN pivots towards AI, the company’s shift in priorities is evident in its investments. It is spending more on AI-centric assets, such as data centers, than on traditional Bitcoin mining operations. This strategic move aims to capitalize on the growing demand for AI infrastructure, with plans to expand its power portfolio and attract long-term partnerships.
IREN’s Stock Response and Future Plans
Since the MSCI inclusion announcement, IREN’s stock has seen an upward movement. The company’s share price rose by approximately 7%, demonstrating investor optimism. However, concerns about the company’s financial performance remain, as recent quarterly results showed lower-than-expected revenues and widening losses.
Despite these concerns, IREN’s long-term outlook remains promising. The company is in talks for several major deals, including a multibillion-dollar contract that could further drive its growth. As the AI infrastructure market expands, IREN aims to leverage its secured power capacity to attract new contracts and raise its recurring revenue.
IREN continues to make progress with its energy initiatives, securing new data center campuses and large power agreements. These efforts position the company to meet the growing demand for energy from tech giants, ensuring a robust pipeline for future growth.
Chainlink’s price is stabilizing at key Fibonacci support, with oversold RSI readings and improving momentum pointing toward a potential relief rally into the $10 resistance zone.
Summary
- $8.33 Fibonacci support is holding, confirming a short-term swing low
- RSI remains oversold, signaling selling pressure exhaustion
- Bullish momentum building, with $10 as the next key resistance
Chainlink (LINK) price action is beginning to show constructive signs after an extended period of downside pressure. Following weeks of aggressive selling, LINK has established a clear swing low and is now attempting to build a base above a technically significant support zone. This shift comes as momentum indicators flash oversold conditions, suggesting that bearish pressure may be exhausting.
As prices stabilize and buyers step in, the broader setup increasingly favors a corrective bounce rather than continued downside. With multiple technical factors aligning near current levels, Chainlink appears positioned for a potential rally toward higher resistance as momentum normalizes.
Chainlink price key technical points
- $8.33 support aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci, reinforcing demand
- RSI remains in oversold territory, signaling momentum exhaustion
- Bullish follow-through opens a path toward $10 resistance, a key upside level
Chainlink has successfully established support around the $8.33 region, an area that carries notable technical importance. This level coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, often referred to as the “golden ratio,” which frequently acts as a high-probability reaction zone in corrective moves.
The formation of a swing low at this level suggests that sellers are losing control and that demand is beginning to absorb supply. Price has since reacted positively from this area, confirming it as a short-term base and increasing confidence that a local bottom may be in place.
Holding above this support keeps the broader corrective structure constructive and limits immediate downside risk.
Oversold RSI signals momentum exhaustion
One of the most compelling elements supporting a potential rally is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which remains in oversold territory. Oversold RSI conditions typically reflect excessive selling pressure and often precede relief rallies as momentum begins to revert toward neutral levels.
In Chainlink’s case, the oversold RSI is occurring after an extended downtrend, increasing the probability that the market is entering a mean-reversion phase. As price continues to stabilize and push higher, the RSI is likely to recover toward neutral territory, supporting further upside continuation.
Importantly, RSI recoveries do not require full trend reversals. Even within broader corrective structures, oversold conditions often produce sharp counter-trend moves as selling pressure fades.
Bullish influxes support the bounce
Recent price action suggests that the current rise is not purely mechanical. Bullish influxes are beginning to appear, indicating renewed buying activity. This shift in behavior is critical, as sustainable bounces require demand to return rather than relying solely on short covering.
As long as bullish participation continues and price maintains acceptance above support, the probability of a continuation move higher increases. The structure now favors a rotation toward the next major resistance rather than an immediate retest of lows.
$10 resistance comes into focus
If the current momentum persists, the next key upside target sits near the $10 level. This zone represents a significant resistance area where price previously faced rejection and where sellers may re-emerge. A move into this region would be consistent with a corrective rally driven by oversold conditions rather than a full trend reversal.
Reaching $10 would allow the RSI to normalize and provide the market with a clearer view of underlying demand strength. How price behaves around this resistance will be crucial in determining whether the rally can extend further or transition into consolidation.
What to expect in the coming price action
From a technical, price-action, and market-structure perspective, Chainlink appears poised for a relief rally as long as the $8.33 support holds. Oversold RSI conditions, Fibonacci confluence, and improving bullish participation all support further upside.
In the near term, consolidation above support followed by higher lows would strengthen the bullish scenario. A $8.33 loss on a closing basis would weaken the setup and reintroduce downside risk.
Key Insights
- Warren questions SEC case dismissals, warning politics may be shaping crypto enforcement and investor protection.
- SEC Chair Atkins defends a shift away from lawsuits, prioritizing fraud prevention and clearer regulatory guidance.
- Senate clash highlights divide: clearer crypto laws vs stricter enforcement to protect markets and innovation.
Senate Hearing Turn Into a Crypto Flashpoint
A heated Capitol Hill hearing on February 12 thrust US crypto regulation into the spotlight as Senator Elizabeth Warren challenged Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Paul Atkins over the agency’s recent enforcement decisions.
🚨 WARREN CALLS OUT TRUMP’S SEC OVER CRYPTO DONORS!
Sen. Elizabeth Warren ( @ewarren ) grilled SEC Chair Paul Atkins ( @SECPaulSAtkins ) over dropped cases against major crypto firms tied to Donald Trump’s ( @realDonaldTrump ) inauguration.
New data shows sharp declines in SEC… https://t.co/MAZx9QxpnA pic.twitter.com/PIbQvlzl4y
— BSCN (@BSCNews) February 13, 2026
Warren directly questioned why several investigations into major crypto firms were dropped, particularly those connected to companies that financially supported Donald Trump’s inauguration. She argued the timing raised serious concerns about political influence and investor protection.
Atkins rejected the allegations, saying the SEC is moving away from “regulation by enforcement” and back toward its core mandate: preventing fraud, protecting investors, and maintaining fair markets. He insisted previous leadership relied too heavily on lawsuits instead of clear guidance.
Is SEC Enforcement Really Declining?
Warren cited public statistics suggesting enforcement has slowed:
- Securities offering cases fell 10.64% from 2024 to 2025
- Investment adviser actions dropped 23.71%
- Broker-dealer cases declined 29.51%
Independent research also reported fewer settlements in fiscal 2025. However, Atkins countered that final annual data has not yet been released and argued the agency is prioritizing fraud over technical registration violations.
Supporters say the shift corrects regulatory overreach seen under former Chair Gary Gensler. Critics warn fewer actions could weaken accountability in the digital asset market.
Registration Violations or Innovation Barriers?
Central to the debate is whether unregistered token offerings automatically constitute misconduct. Crypto companies have long argued unclear securities definitions made compliance difficult.
Atkins supports legislation similar to the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which would divide oversight between the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. He compared the past environment to innovators stuck between two competing regulators.
Warren disagreed, warning reduced oversight could usher in a “golden age of fraud.”
Could Politics Be Influencing Crypto Policy?
Warren highlighted dismissed cases involving major exchanges including Kraken, Coinbase, Gemini, and Binance, noting their financial ties to inauguration events. She also questioned dropped actions tied to executives who later received presidential clemency.
Atkins maintained pardons do not erase civil liability and emphasized that fraud investigations continue regardless of industry.
Conclusion
The battle discloses a larger policy divide: is a more explicit legislation more crucial in fostering innovativeness or is weaker enforcement more likely to hurt investors. The future of the United States regulation of digital assets may be determined by the final effect of Congress discussing crypto-market-structure legislation.
Key points:
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Bitcoin is attempting a comeback, which is expected to face stiff resistance at the breakdown level of $74,508.
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Several major altcoins are attempting a recovery, signaling that lower levels are attracting buyers.
Bitcoin (BTC) has risen above $68,500, as buyers attempt to form a higher low near $65,000. According to Glassnode, BTC is stuck between the true market mean at $79,200 and the realized price near $55,000. The onchain data provider expects the range-bound action to continue until a major catalyst pushes the price either above or below the range.
Standard Chartered also had a muted forecast for BTC. It lowered BTC’s target to $100,000 from $150,000 for 2026. The bank expects BTC to fall to $50,000 over the next few months, followed by a recovery for the remainder of the year.
Several analysts also say that BTC has not yet bottomed out. Crypto analyst Tony Research said in a post on X that BTC will bottom in the $40,000 to $50,000 zone, possibly “between mid-September and late November 2026.”
Could BTC and the major altcoins start a recovery? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin price prediction
BTC turned up from $65,118 on Thursday, indicating demand at lower levels. The bulls will try to push the price to the breakdown level of $74,508.
If the Bitcoin price turns down sharply from the $74,508 level, it suggests that the bears remain active at higher levels. That may keep the BTC/USDT pair between $74,508 and $60,000 for a few days. On the downside, a break below the $60,000 support may sink the pair to $52,500.
Alternatively, if buyers thrust the price above $74,508, it suggests that the selling pressure is reducing. The pair may then rally to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($85,046).
Ether price prediction
Buyers are attempting to push and maintain Ether (ETH) above the $2,000 level, but the bears have kept up the pressure.
If the price turns down from the current level or the $2,111 resistance, it suggests that the bears are aggressively defending the level. The Ether price may then retest the critical support at $1,750. If the level cracks, the ETH/USDT pair may extend the decline to the next major support at $1,537.
On the upside, buyers will have to swiftly push the price above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($2,297) to signal a comeback. If they manage to do that, the pair may ascend to the 50-day SMA ($2,800).
BNB price prediction
BNB (BNB) continues to gradually slide toward the strong support at $570, which is a vital level to watch out for.
If the BNB price plunges below the $570 support, it signals the start of the next leg of the downtrend toward the psychological level of $500.
However, the relative strength index (RSI) is in oversold territory, indicating that a relief rally is possible in the near term. If the price turns up from the current level, the bulls will attempt to push the BNB/USDT pair above the $669 level. If they can pull it off, the pair may march toward the 20-day EMA ($710).
XRP price prediction
XRP (XRP) has been clinging to the support line of the descending channel pattern, increasing the risk of a breakdown.
If that happens, the XRP price may drop to the $1.11 level. This is a critical level for the bulls to defend, as a break below it may resume the downtrend. The XRP/USDT pair may then fall to $1 and subsequently to $0.75.
Contrarily, if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above the20-day EMA ($1.55), it suggests that the pair may remain inside the channel for some more time. Buyers will have to achieve a close above the downtrend line to signal a potential trend change.
Solana price prediction
Solana (SOL) is trying to find support at the $77 level, but the bears are likely to sell on rallies.
The SOL/USDT pair may reach the breakdown level of $95, where the bears are expected to pose a strong challenge. If the price turns down sharply from the $95 level, it suggests that the bears have flipped the level into resistance. The Solana price may then plummet to the $67 level.
Conversely, if buyers push the price above the $95 level, the pair may rally to the 50-day SMA ($119). That suggests the break below the $95 level may have been a bear trap.
Dogecoin price prediction
Dogecoin (DOGE) is attempting to bounce off the $0.09 level, but the bears continue to sell on minor rallies.
If the Dogecoin price turns down and breaks below $0.09, the DOGE/USDT pair may drop to the $0.08 level. This is a crucial level for the bulls to defend, as a break below it may extend the downtrend to $0.06.
The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day EMA ($0.10). The pair may then rally to the breakdown level of $0.12, which is likely to act as stiff resistance. A break above the $0.12 level opens the doors for a rally to $0.16.
Bitcoin Cash price prediction
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) broke below the $497 support on Thursday, but the bulls failed to sustain the lower levels.
The bulls are attempting to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($536) but are expected to face significant resistance from the bears. If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA and breaks below $493, the BCH/USDT pair may plunge toward the $443 level.
On the contrary, if the price breaks and closes above the 20-day EMA, it suggests demand at lower levels. The Bitcoin Cash price may then rally to the 50-day SMA ($581), where the bears are again expected to mount a strong defense.
Related: Bitcoin open interest hits lows not seen since 2024: Is TradFi abandoning BTC?
Hyperliquid price prediction
Hyperliquid (HYPE) has risen back above the 20-day EMA ($30.18) on Thursday, indicating buying on dips.
The flattish 20-day EMA and the RSI just above the midpoint suggest a balance between supply and demand. Buyers will have to propel the Hyperliquid price above the $35.50 level to indicate that the corrective phase may have ended. The HYPE/USDT pair may then ascend to $44.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below the 50-day SMA ($27.25), it signals that the bears have an edge. The pair may then slump to the $20.82 support.
Cardano price prediction
Cardano (ADA) remains inside the descending channel pattern, indicating that the bears remain in charge.
The bears will attempt to strengthen their position by pulling the price below the support line and the $0.22 level. If they manage to do that, the ADA/USDT pair may descend to $0.20 and later to $0.15.
Instead, if the Cardano price turns up from the current level and breaks above the 20-day EMA ($0.29), it signals that the pair may remain inside the channel for some more time. Buyers will seize control on a close above the channel.
Monero price prediction
Monero (XMR) is facing resistance at the breakdown level of $360, but the bulls have not ceded much ground to the bears.
That increases the likelihood of a break above $360. If that happens, the bears will again try to halt the recovery at the 20-day EMA ($385). However, buyers are likely to have other plans. They will try to pierce the 20-day EMA, clearing the path for a rally toward the 50-day SMA ($460).
This positive view will be negated in the near term if the Monero price continues lower and breaks below $309. The XMR/USDT pair may then plummet to $276, which is likely to attract buyers.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Crypto World
Ripple’s (XRP) Next Price Targets, Cardano (ADA) Whales on the Move, and More: Bits Recap Feb 13
Here’s everything most interesting around XRP, ADA, and BTC.
Ripple’s XRP has rebounded substantially from the crash on February 6, and now many analysts believe a further pump could be on the horizon.
Cardano’s (ADA) whales have been quite active in the past week, while an interesting development suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) may experience a new pullback in the short term.
What’s Next for XRP?
As of press time, Ripple’s cross-border token trades just below $1.40, representing a 3% increase on a weekly scale. As usual, it has been the subject of numerous price predictions in the past few days, and the majority seem to be optimistic ones.
The analyst who goes by the X moniker X Finance Bull recently claimed that the XRP bull catalyst “is loading,” based on the recent interview of Scott Bessent (US Secretary of the Treasury), who appeared on Fox News. The politician confirmed that the Clarity Act (a proposed legislative framework designed to regulate the crypto sector in America) needs to pass this spring.
X Finance Bull argued that Ripple has over 100 institutional partners waiting for the green light, forecasting that “once it’s signed, the rush to XRP begins.” CRYPTOWZRD also chipped in. The analyst assumed that a further bullish move is “very likely” for XRP, еmphasizing the importance of holding above the $1.3820 level.
Meanwhile, factors such as the declining number of coins held on Binance and the formation of certain technical patterns suggest that Ripple’s native cryptocurrency could indeed head north soon.
ADA Whales Make Moves
Cardano’s native token has also rebounded by roughly 3% over the past week; however, that move coincides with a selling spree by large investors, commonly known as whales. Ali Martinez revealed that these market participants have dumped almost 200 million tokens in the span of seven days, a stash with a current USD equivalent of around $50 million.
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These actions are concerning since they could instill panic across the community and prompt smaller players to cash out as well. After all, whales are considered experienced investors whose buying or selling decisions may be based on potential inside information that most people lack.
Additionally, sell-offs increase the amount of ADA available on the open market, and fundamental economic principles suggest the price could decline if demand fails to keep pace.
Despite the bearish factor, some analysts remain optimistic that a revival could be on the way. X user Aman recently noted that ADA’s valuation dipped to the demand zone of $0.26, which in previous cases has sparked substantial revivals.
More Problems for BTC?
The primary cryptocurrency fell to roughly $60,000 last Friday, marking its lowest level since October 2024. As of this writing, it trades at around $67,000, but certain elements signal that a renewed downtrend could be on the horizon.
Just recently, an anonymous whale deposited 8,200 BTC into Binance. The analytics company Lookonchain disclosed that whenever they execute such transfers, the asset goes down. It is worth noting that BTC’s price hovered around $69,000 at the time of the deposit, but minutes later it dipped to as low as $65,000.
An analysis made by Alphractal showed another potential bearish signal. The platform revealed that BTC’s long-term Realized Cap Impulse (a metric that is used to assess whether new capital is entering the ecosystem) has turned negative after three years.
Alphractal explained that, historically, such developments have had major implications for the asset, coinciding with periods of significant corrections or prolonged bear markets.
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Yorkville America Equities, the asset manager behind a series of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to U.S. President Donald Trump’s Truth Social brand, has filed registration documents for two new cryptocurrency ETFs, expanding its push into the digital asset market.
According to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) submitted Friday, the firm is seeking approval for the Truth Social Bitcoin and Ether ETF, which would offer exposure to the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. Yorkville also filed for a second product, the Truth Social Cronos Yield Maximizer ETF, which would invest in and stake , the native token of Crypto.com’s Cronos blockchain.
While both ETFs remain subject to SEC approval, the filings mark an significant next step for the politically branded investment firm. If approved, the ETFs would be launched in partnership with Crypto.com, which is expected to serve as the digital asset custodian, liquidity provider, and staking services provider for the new funds.
The Cronos-focused ETF is especially notable for its inclusion of staking rewards, which are typically earned by helping to secure proof-of-stake networks like Cronos. That could position the fund as a yield-generating product in a space still largely dominated by passive spot ETFs.
Both funds would also be distributed through Foris Capital US LLC, the SEC-registered broker-dealer affiliated with Crypto.com.
Truth Social first signaled its crypto ambitions in June 2025, when it filed an S-1 registration statement for a spot bitcoin ETF under the same brand. That was followed by a Blue Chip Digital Asset ETF filing in July 2025, targeting a basket of large-cap altcoins. Neither product has yet launched.
President Trump, a primary owner of Trump Media & Technology Group that in turn owns Truth Social, has struggled politically with his personal business ties to the crypto sector. That relationship is currently among the primary sticking points for advancing the U.S. Senate’s Digital Asset Market Clarity Act that would govern the oversight of U.S. crypto markets.
After recent liquidations, traders have piled into shorts again, pushing Bitcoin funding rates deeper into negative territory.
Aggregated funding rate data across major cryptocurrency exchanges revealed that the current wave of short positioning is the most extreme since August 2024, a period that coincided with a major bottom for Bitcoin, according to new analysis from Santiment.
At that time, funding rates sank deeply into negative territory as traders overwhelmingly positioned for further downside, amidst intense fear and bearish sentiment across the market.
Extreme Bear Bets Before 2024 Reversal
Instead of continuing lower, Santiment found that prices reversed sharply, and the forced unwinding of overcrowded short positions helped fuel a strong recovery. Following that August 2024 low, Bitcoin went on to climb roughly 83% over the next four months. The move illustrated how extreme negative funding conditions can emerge right before powerful rebounds.
Santiment explained that funding rates are a mechanism within perpetual futures markets, and are designed to keep futures prices aligned with spot prices. These rates represent small, periodic payments exchanged between traders. When funding is negative, short sellers pay long traders, and when it is positive, long traders pay shorts.
When aggregated funding rates across exchanges fall far below zero, it means that a major share of market participants is heavily positioned for declining prices, often driven by fear, uncertainty, and doubt. Such imbalances can create conditions ripe for sharp counter-moves.
Many short positions are opened using leverage, meaning traders borrow capital to amplify potential gains. If prices move higher instead of lower, losses on these leveraged shorts can accumulate rapidly. Once losses breach predefined thresholds, exchanges automatically liquidate those positions to manage risk.
When large numbers of shorts are forced to close simultaneously, the resulting wave of buying can accelerate price increases, a trend commonly referred to as a short squeeze. The deeper funding rates fall into negative territory, the more crowded short positions become, and the greater the potential fuel for a sudden reversal.
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Aftermath of October Binance Liquidations
The analytics platform also pointed to recent market activity surrounding a liquidation event on Binance on October 10, 2025, when a wave of long liquidations contributed to a sharp drop in BTC’s price. In the aftermath of that move, traders increasingly shifted into short positions as they expected further downside, which ended up recreating a similar imbalance that could be observed through funding rate data.
Current aggregated metrics suggest sentiment has once again leaned heavily in one direction. While Santiment stated that heavy short positioning does not guarantee an immediate rally, it described the present environment as one of high risk, where positioning pressure could flip into rapid upside volatility if shorts are forced to unwind.
Based on broader sentiment indicators, it added that these short positions are unlikely to close voluntarily. This makes a liquidation-driven move higher a more probable resolution.
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