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Crypto market on edge as US NFP and retail sales fall, unemployment rises

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Crypto market on edge as US NFP and retail sales fall, unemployment rises

The crypto market remained on edge today, March 6, as the war in Iran continued. It also wavered as the US non-farm payrolls and retail sales dropped and the unemployment rate jumped.

Summary

  • The crypto market wavered after the latest US non-farm payrolls data.
  • A report showed that the US shed 92,000 jobs in February.
  • US retail sales continued falling in January.

Bitcoin (BTC) price remained at $70,000 at press time. Ethereum (ETH) hovered slightly above $2,000, while Ripple (XRP) remained steady above $1.40.

Crypto prices reacted to the latest jobs report, which was much worse than expected. The US economy shed over 92,000 jobs in February, the worst performance in years. Economists were expecting the report to show that the economy added 59,000 jobs.

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The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% in January to 4.4% in February. Additionally, the participation rate dropped to 62%, while the average hourly earnings rose 0.4%.

These numbers show that the labor market is getting worse, a trend that may continue after several layoffs. For example, Amazon announced that it was cutting more jobs in its robotics arm this week. It has slashed 57,000 jobs in the last three years. Other companies like Target and UPS have slashed jobs recently.

More data revealed that the US retail sales dropped by 0.2% in January. That is a notable figure as consumer spending is the biggest part of the US economy. 

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Therefore, in theory, these numbers are bullish for the crypto market as they may lead to a Federal Reserve intervention. In a recent statement, Stephen Miran, a senior Fed official, said that he supported more interest rate cuts, citing the labor market. 

The main challenge for the Fed is that inflation may worsen as the war in Iran continues. Crude oil prices continued rising, with Brent moving to $90 and the West Texas Intermediate moving to $87. Gasoline jumped to the highest point since 2024, meaning that inflation may rebound soon. 

Data on Polymarket shows that traders anticipate one or two interest rate cuts this year. In most cases, Bitcoin and the crypto market does well when the Fed is signaling that it will cut rates.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Traders Bet On Sub-$66K BTC In April Due To Rising Fear

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Bitcoin Traders Bet On Sub-$66K BTC In April Due To Rising Fear

Key takeaways:

  • Bearish sentiment is rising as Bitcoin options professional traders lose confidence that the $66,000 level will hold for long.

  • The exit of David Sacks as the Crypto and AI czar and a lack of a clear US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve plan added to investors’ doubts.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $65,530 on Friday, an 8% decline from the $71,300 level seen on Thursday. This move wiped out over $210 million in leveraged bullish Bitcoin futures and left most call (buy) options worthless during the $18.6 billion monthly expiry. Traders now anticipate a 53% chance that Bitcoin will stay below $66,000 by April 24.

April 24 Bitcoin option prices at Deribit. Source: Deribit

On Friday, the April 24 Bitcoin $66,000 put (sell) options traded at 0.0566 BTC or roughly $3,730. With a 53% implied probability of Bitcoin trading below $66,000 by late April, the mood remains decidedly bearish following the increased uncertainty in the US and Israel-Iran war, pushing traders into a risk-averse mode.

US inflation threats and stalling crypto, Bitcoin legislation

Rising oil prices and a potential $200 billion in extra US military spending led investors to demand higher returns on government bonds and dragged the S&P 500 to its lowest levels since September 2025. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil surged to $100 on Friday, while 5-year Treasury yields reached 4.07%, up from 3.72% three weeks prior.

US 5-year Treasury yield (left) vs. S&P 500 (right). Source: TradingView

Inflationary fear and weaker corporate earnings perspectives alone cannot explain Bitcoin’s 20% underperformance against the S&P 500 in 2026. Other factors are likely at play, including investors’ discomfort over the lack of progress on the US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.

David Sacks has stepped down from his role as the Trump administration’s crypto and AI czar. While Sacks remains an advisor on the President’s Council on Science & Technology, his departure follows earlier comments that inflated Bitcoin investors’ expectations. Sacks had previously hinted that the US could acquire more Bitcoin through budget-neutral methods without raising taxes.

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Related: US lawmakers publish crypto tax proposal without Bitcoin tax exemption

Bitcoin 30-day options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: Laevitas

The Bitcoin options delta skew jumped to 15% on Friday, showing that put options are trading at a significant premium relative to call instruments. In balanced market conditions, this metric usually ranges between -6% and +6%. The current level indicates a lack of conviction among whales that the $66,000 level will hold. Fear has largely dominated the Bitcoin options market since mid-January.

Bitcoin options expiry favored neutral-to-bearish strategies

Friday’s monthly options expiry at $68,610 proved unfavorable for neutral-to-bullish strategies, as 97% of call options became void. Bears gained the upper hand as put options at $69,000 or higher surpassed $2 billion in open interest. Critically, part of Friday’s downward move reflects a growing unwillingness among traders to maintain Bitcoin exposure over the weekend.

Crypto markets cut risk on Friday due to uncertainty. Source: X/WhalePanda

X social platform user WhalePanda, suggested that the crash in risk markets anticipates President Trump making “another dumb escalating move” after US markets close. Consequently, the current fear seen in the options market could reverse if no major geopolitical events occur before Monday.

During bearish cycles, traders often rush for the exits at the mere sight of any event that could be deemed negative. Investors should not take Bitcoin’s implied odds at face value, as these metrics are heavily impacted by recent news and headlines. However, expectations could shift more favorably if Iran effectively releases a counter-offer to the US peace proposal.