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Crypto sentiment gauge hits FTX-era lows as ‘extreme fear’ reaches a 9 reading

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Crypto sentiment gauge hits FTX-era lows as 'extreme fear' reaches a 9 reading

Crypto market sentiment sank to its bleakest level since the FTX collapse after bitcoin’s sharp drop this week dragged prices across the board and forced a wave of deleveraging.

The widely followed Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to 9 on Friday, a reading categorized as “extreme fear” and one that has historically only appeared during major breakdowns in market confidence.

The index stood at 12 a day earlier, 16 last week and 42 last month, suggestive of how quickly traders have shifted from cautious to outright defensive.

The fear gauge is built primarily around bitcoin, combining several indicators that attempt to quantify investor mood rather than price direction. It includes volatility and drawdowns, market momentum and trading volume, social media engagement, bitcoin dominance and Google Trends data tied to bitcoin-related searches.

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A sharp rise in volatility, a spike in defensive positioning and an increase in fear-driven search interest typically push the index lower.

The collapse in sentiment comes as bitcoin briefly traded near $60,000 in late U.S. hours Thursday before bouncing back toward $65,000, a whipsaw move that reflected both forced liquidations and opportunistic dip-buying.

While the rebound suggests some buyers are willing to step in near major psychological levels, the sentiment reading implies the broader market remains in “sell first, ask questions later” mode.

In past cycles, extreme fear has often coincided with local bottoms, largely because panic conditions tend to flush out leveraged traders and short-term holders. But that is not a rule, and the index is better read as a snapshot of stress rather than a timing tool.

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The index does not predict where bitcoin goes next, however. But it does show that the market has returned to the kind of fear typically reserved for systemic events.

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Crypto World

CLSK sold one of its highest proportions of mined BTC during February.

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Bitcoin (BTC) mining stocks rallied in January despite softer BTC prices: JPMorgan

CleanSpark (CLSK), a U.S.-based bitcoin mining company that operates large-scale data centers, sold almost all the bitcoin it produced last month to generate cash for an expansion into artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC).

The Nasdaq-listed miner produced 568 BTC in February and sold 553 BTC, roughly 97%, according to its latest operational update. The sales generated about $36.65 million in proceeds at an average price of $66,279 per bitcoin, one of the highest production-to-sales ratios the company has reported.

The sale reflects a broader trend among bitcoin miners pivoting toward AI and HPC, with companies increasingly selling either new production or reducing their balance-sheet holdings to help fund new data center and infrastructure development.

CleanSpark still maintains a sizable treasury. As of Feb. 28, it held 13,363 BTC, with 1,086 BTC pledged as collateral or recorded as receivables related to derivative transactions.

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Operationally, the company continues to scale its mining platform. CleanSpark reported 50 EH/s of operational hashrate, roughly 7 percent of the global network’s computing power.

The company also closed on a second Texas campus, adding 300 megawatts of ERCOT approved capacity and bringing its total contracted power portfolio to 1.8 gigawatts.

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ETH Rally Toward $2.5K Held Back By Macro, War, DApp Use

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ETH Rally Toward $2.5K Held Back By Macro, War, DApp Use

Key takeaways:

  • ETH derivatives signal a shift to safety as professional desks hedge against downside risks and global instability.

  • Institutional preference for decentralization keeps Ethereum dominant despite its recent drop in network activity.

Ether (ETH) price dropped by 6% following a brief rally to $2,200 on Wednesday, tracking a downturn in US equities as the war in Iran entered its sixth day. Disruptions to global oil production and Middle East natural gas shipping pushed WTI crude prices to levels not seen since July 2024.

Investors lowered their economic growth outlook as the conflict escalated and moved to a risk-off posture. 

Traders’ sentiment was further pressured as the Trump administration faced a legal setback on its import tariffs. A Federal court on Monday rejected a Justice Department request to pause the case for 90 days, effectively striking down the administration’s use of emergency powers for trade levies.

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Ether remains caught in this macroeconomic crossfire, which has stifled momentum despite a 22% recovery from the $1,800 retest on Feb. 24. Onchain data and derivatives markets currently reflect significant apathy from bulls.

ETH 30-day futures annualized premium (basis rate). Source: Laevitas.ch

The ETH 30-day futures annualized premium sits well below the 5% neutral threshold, signaling a lack of demand for bullish leverage. However, this metric is weighed down by the fact that ETH trades 58% below its August 2025 all-time high of $4,956. To gauge whether professional desks anticipate further downside, one must analyze the options market.

When whales and market makers seek protection against price drops, the ETH options skew (put-call) typically rises above the 6% neutral mark. Extreme market stress can push this indicator past 15%.

ETH 30-day options skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: Laevitas.ch

The ETH options skew reached 7% on Thursday after briefly touching neutral levels a day prior. This persistent skepticism among professional traders provides bears with the necessary leverage to fuel further uncertainty. Beyond external macro pressures, including US private credit losses and rising corporate layoffs, Ether continues to face its own idiosyncratic headwinds.

Ethereum is positioned to capture the pickup in DApps demand

Ethereum network activity has stagnated following a modest rally in early February. Consistent demand for blockchain utility remains essential for sustainable ETH price action and reducing inflationary pressure. The built-in burn mechanism of Ethereum depends on competition to enter the validation queue, a process typically fueled by decentralized exchange (DEX) activity.

Weekly DEX volumes and Ethereum DApps revenues, USD. Source: DefiLlama

Weekly DEX volumes on the Ethereum network recently hit $12.6 billion, falling from $20.2 billion one month prior. Decentralized application (DApp) revenues dropped to $14.1 million over seven days, marking a 47% decline from the previous month. Competing blockchains have seen a similar trend, as DEX volumes on Solana also decreased by 50% over the same 30-day window.

Related: Bitcoin trader sees ‘lower soon’ as BTC price starts to erase $74K breakout

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Despite the weak onchain metrics, ETH is well-positioned to capture an eventual pickup in DApp activity due to its dominance in total value locked (TVL). When including layer-2 scaling solutions, the Ethereum ecosystem accounts for nearly 65% of the total blockchain market TVL.

Related: 38% of altcoins near all-time lows, worse than FTX crash–Analyst

Total Value Locked (TVL) market share. Source: DefiLlama

The Ethereum base layer holds $55.4 billion in TVL, while its leading competitor Solana, accounts for $6.8 billion. This gap serves as evidence of a preference among institutional investors for decentralization over the lower fees and faster user experiences offered by networks like Solana and BNB Chain.

The current weakness in Ether derivatives and onchain metrics does not necessarily signal an imminent price crash. Market sentiment can shift quickly toward a sustained bullish momentum if ETH reclaims the $2,400 level. For the moment, the Ether price remains closely tied to the broader risk-off sentiment, which reduces the odds of a sustainable bullish momentum.