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Crypto Winter Has Been Here Since January 2025, But Recovery May Be Closer Than You Think

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Crypto Winter Has Been Here Since January 2025, But Recovery May Be Closer Than You Think


Retail crypto suffered most since January 2025, while ETFs and DATs masked true losses for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, according to Hougan.

Bitwise Asset Management’s Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan, has stated that the cryptocurrency market has been in a full-blown “crypto winter” since January 2025.

The exec said that signs suggest the downturn may be closer to ending than beginning.

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Positive News Isn’t Driving Prices

In a recent post titled “The Depths of Crypto Winter,” Hougan explained that, despite ongoing positive developments in adoption, regulation, and institutional involvement, the market is in a severe bear market.

Hougan noted that Bitcoin has fallen almost 39% from its October 2025 all-time high, while Ethereum is down 53%, and many other digital assets are performing even worse. He said this should not be interpreted as a short-term correction or a minor dip, but rather as a deep, drawn-out bear market similar to previous crypto winters, including those in 2018 and 2022. According to him, factors such as excessive leverage and widespread profit-taking by long-term holders contributed to the current downturn.

Despite developments such as a new Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, who is supportive of Bitcoin, increasing institutional hiring in crypto, and growing adoption by traditional financial firms, investor sentiment remains deeply wary. Hougan said that “Good news doesn’t matter in the depths of winter,” and added that these severe market conditions typically end not with enthusiasm but through exhaustion and sentiment normalization.

The Bitwise CIO also said that institutional flows played a crucial role in masking the true extent of the 2025 downturn. He cited data from the Bitwise 10 Large Cap Crypto Index, which showed that assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP experienced smaller declines, between 10% and 20%, largely due to support from ETFs and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs).

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Other assets, including Solana, Litecoin, and Chainlink, experienced typical bear-market declines of 37% to 46%, while Cardano, Avalanche, Sui, and Polkadot saw losses ranging from 62% to 75%. Hougan explained that institutional access and investment through ETFs and DATs provided a buffer for some assets, while retail-focused tokens bore the brunt of the market downturn.

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For instance, ETFs and DATs purchased over 744,000 Bitcoin during the period, representing roughly $75 billion in support. Without that institutional buying, he estimated Bitcoin could have fallen by around 60% since January 2025. As such, several factors could mark the end of the current crypto winter, according to Hougan, who also said,

“I think we’re going to come roaring back sooner rather than later. Heck, it’s been winter since January 2025. Spring is surely coming soon.”

BTC’s Global Standing Weakens

The depth of the current downturn is also reflected in Bitcoin’s standing among global assets. As reported by CryptoPotato, Bitcoin has dropped out of the top ten assets by market capitalization and now ranks 13th globally, according to CompaniesMarketCap data from February 2.

Its market cap has declined to roughly $1.56 trillion, down from about $2.35 trillion back in July 2025, when it ranked sixth after rallying past $119,000.

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Crypto World

Tally to Wind Down DAO Platform, Scraps Planned ICO

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Tally to Wind Down DAO Platform, Scraps Planned ICO

Decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) governance platform Tally is shutting down after five years of operations, citing a lack of sustainable business models for governance tooling in the crypto market. 

Tally co-founder and CEO Dennison Bertram said the company will begin winding down at the end of March. He added that the company is not moving forward with a planned initial coin offering (ICO), concluding that it could not confidently deliver on the expectations that would come with selling tokens to investors. 

Tally’s closure comes despite years of activity on its platform, which supported governance for hundreds of organizations and processed more than $1 billion in payments, according to Bertram. At its peak, the company said it helped secure up to $80 billion in value and served more than 1 million users.

Tally launched in 2021 as a software platform for on-chain organizations. According to startup intelligence platform Tracxn, the company raised a total of $15.5 million across three funding rounds. 

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Related: Vitalik Buterin proposes using AI to strengthen DAO governance

The shutdown reflects the challenges facing DAO-focused platforms after years of development and adoption. It highlights the pace of change in the industry, where even substantial achievements may prove insufficient to support a venture-backed business in DAO governance tooling.

Source: Tally

Industry reflects on DAO challenges amid Tally shutdown

Following the announcement, builders and operators across the ecosystem pointed to a broader reassessment of DAO governance, with some describing Tally’s closure as part of a wider shift in how coordination tools are being developed and monetized. 

Oku Trade CEO Getty Hill said DAO development has not met the expectations set during earlier growth phases.

Related: DAOs may need to ditch decentralization to court institutions

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“While stablecoins have achieved the greatest product-market fit in crypto, I still believe DAOs will ultimately get there, though maybe not for another 3-10 years,” he wrote. 

Meanwhile, Oasis Onchain founder Stefen Deleveaux described the shutdown as “the end of an era,” reflecting on a wave of early DAO tooling projects that emerged during the 2020–2021 cycle but struggled to sustain themselves over time.

Realms DAO chief technology officer Adrian Brzeziński pointed to the stats highlighted by Bertram, saying that the “hardest truth” in crypto infrastructure is that usage does not equate to revenue. “The next wave of governance won’t look like voting portals. It’ll look like capital coordination,” Brzeziński wrote. 

DAOs are “difficult” to operate

On March 11, Aave founder Stani Kulechov said DAOs, in their current form, are “extraordinarily difficult” to operate. He pointed to internal conflicts and proposals that can take weeks of forum posts, temperature checks and multiple votes to pass. 

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