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Crypto world faces growing pressure to relent on stablecoin rewards to win bigger prize

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Crypto world faces growing pressure to relent on stablecoin rewards to win bigger prize

If you break down what’s standing in the way of advancing the crypto sector’s top goal in Washington — Clarity Act legislation — the part of the debate that the industry can control is narrow: stablecoin rewards.

That’s not the only issue that could potentially derail the bill to finally establish a tailored legal footing for crypto markets in the U.S., but it’s the one in which industry insiders have a strong say. Companies such as Coinbase have been vigorously defending that business turf, wanting to keep giving customers incentives for engaging with stablecoins on their platforms.

But Wall Street banking lobbyists rolled in and made an argument that getting yield on stablecoin accounts is a lot like getting interest on savings accounts, and if the former kills the latter, the death of the deposit business means the strangulation of bank lending. That argument stuck with enough lawmakers on both sides of the aisle that it stopped the Senate’s Digital Asset Market Clarity Act in its tracks.

Heels have been digging in, and the resulting impasse will get harder to break as the weeks fly by, until the Senate’s own calendar quirks could effectively shove the whole mess toward 2027.

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Upper hand?

Until now, the crypto side has argued that it has the upper hand, because the crypto bill that already passed into law — the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act — seemed to allow third-party platforms such as Coinbase to offer rewards tied to other issuers’ tokens, such as Circle’s. However, a newly proposed rule from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency that’s implementing GENIUS concluded that such relationships may violate the intent of the law, leaving the crypto world’s confidence a little shaken.

The last time the crypto and banking negotiators sat down with White House officials, President Donald Trump’s crypto advisers seemed to favor a compromise that would allow some rewards — not for merely holding stablecoins, but for actually using them for transactions and to support crypto infrastructure. Crypto insiders felt confident in their leverage, with GENIUS behind them and the White House favoring certain rewards.

But bank representatives haven’t necessarily seen the White House in the driver’s seat, because the White House doesn’t get a vote in advancing the Senate’s bill. The bankers haven’t yet raised their hands to move beyond their earlier position that virtually all categories of rewards need to be banned, despite the White House having set the end of February as an informal (unmet) deadline for compromise.

So where does that leave things?

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The banks can hold out, and if they continue to cast stablecoin rewards as an existential threat to the traditional financial system and Main Street lending, it could keep their allied lawmakers on their side at the fatal expense of the Clarity Act. What they risk is that the GENIUS Act remains the law of the land on this point. The OCC’s latest work may help bolster their confidence that strict rewards limits will be put in place, but that final agency rule would have to land on a very restrictive interpretation.

The crypto industry can also hold out, and if it can successfully lobby against the OCC’s proposed rule, it may still manage to preserve stablecoin reward programs it believes should be allowed under the wording of the GENIUS Act. But that may come at the cost of the Clarity Act, which is the single most important policy aim since the birth of crypto.

Regulations either way

Would an absence of Clarity mean that the industry continues without U.S. regulations? Probably not, because the U.S. markets regulators — the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission — are working on rules that will define their crypto jurisdictions. The drawback, though, is that it would be done without the foundation of new law, so the rules would be reasonably easy to peel back or revise under future leadership changes at those agencies.

As if that wasn’t enough for the crypto negotiators to consider, there’s this: If they were to capitulate somehow on stablecoin yield, and the bill advanced along party lines through the Senate Banking Committee (as it already was through the Senate Agriculture Committee), the crypto-industry sacrifice brings no guarantee the effort gets passed by the rest of the Senate.

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The problem is that Democratic senators have asked for some other significant points in this bill, and so far, those requests have gone unanswered. They want more vigorous defenses against illicit finance in crypto, especially focused on the decentralized finance (DeFi) space, and some of the Democrats’ past ideas were bashed by the industry as DeFi death threats. They also want politically dicey limits on the personal crypto business ties of senior government officials — most significantly, President Trump. And they demand that vacant Democratic seats get filled in the CFTC and SEC.

None of the points represent impassable roadblocks, but in the months of talks, they haven’t been cleared, yet. Some of the requests — such as commission nominations — would depend on willingness from the White House.

In the meantime, the clock is ticking away on 2026 Senate floor time for a major legislative accomplishment. Because this is a midterm election year, the lawmakers will scarcely be working in the Senate after the end of July. And apart from the scheduling practicalities, the nearness of hot-blooded campaigning erodes the chances of the parties getting together on a bill.

At this stage, insiders on the crypto side of the talks have expressed frustration over the unwavering position of the bankers, even as the digital assets businesses have seemed prepared to abandon stablecoin rewards on accounts in which the tokens are simply held (like a bank account). Still, people like Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong (“We’re going to reach a win-win-win outcome“) and Ripple CEO Brian Garlinghouse (predicting 80% odds of passage) have sought to maintain industry confidence.

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That optimism seems to have kept Polymarket bettors favoring Clarity Act passage this year above a coin flip, currently at 70%.

In the coming weeks, the crypto industry may be forced to decide whether some kind of further sacrifice on stablecoin rewards is worth eliminating one of the major impediments to advancing a bill. And the banks may have to decide whether they can contend with the GENIUS Act’s treatment of stablecoins as it stands. So far, neither are moving, and tension is building.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Traders See New Lows Coming as Gold Enters Bear Market

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Bitcoin Traders See New Lows Coming as Gold Enters Bear Market

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week facing fresh macro risks as gold plummets and traders wait for $50,000.

  • BTC price action ends the week below a key trend line, and traders see little more than an early-week bounce for bulls.

  • Price looks more and more like it is repeating January’s bear flag — and targets now call for new multiyear lows.

  • Gold enters a technical bear market and oil returns to $100 as Iran tensions continue.

  • Traders start to consider Fed rate hikes in 2026, but history could still offer risk assets some relief.

  • Bitcoin’s long-term holders have been selling at a loss throughout March.

Bitcoin weekly close loses 200-week trend line

After a rough weekend, Bitcoin struggled to reclaim support as TradFi traders returned to start the week.

Data from TradingView shows price dipping to near $67,400 into the weekly close, which lost control of the key 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) trend line.

Analysis previously saw a close above the 200-week EMA, currently at $68,300, as key to protecting bulls going forward.

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BTC/USD one-hour chart with 200-week EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

In his latest X analysis on BTC price action released on Sunday, trader CrypNuevo forecast that the market would continue to hinge on geopolitics.

“It feels like we’ll be stuck in this range for the next month too,” he summarized.

“We could see some conflict escalation (uncertainty) next week that could trigger a new visit to the range lows where an interesting 4h long wick still sits there.”

BTC/USDT four-hour chart. Source: CrypNuevo/X

CrypNuevo referred to Bitcoin’s sub-$60,000 swing low seen in early February.

“In LTF, I’ll be favoring a potential price rotation to $65k next week,” he continued about low time frames. 

“I’d like to position for this around $70k if we see a short-lived push to the upside at the start of the week. But with caution, because acceptance above $71k would invalidate it and I’d long to $73k-$74k.”

Crypto liquidation history (screeshot). Source: CoinGlass

Liquidations stayed high into Monday, with over $400 million erased over 24 hours, per data from CoinGlass.

With liquidity stacked above price, trader Castillo Trading eyed a potential short squeeze to take it.

Commenting on the latest price moves, meanwhile, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant hinted that the weekend’s downside volatility was nothing out of the ordinary.

“During weekends, institutional participation declines significantly, and spot-driven demand—especially from ETF flows—effectively pauses. As a result, the market becomes more dependent on derivatives positioning and short-term liquidity conditions,” contributor XWIN Research Japan wrote in a “QuickTake” blog post. 

“Lower liquidity also amplifies price sensitivity. With thinner order books, relatively small sell orders can trigger larger price movements, often leading to cascading effects such as stop-loss activation or liquidation events.”

BTC Sunday price action (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

XWIN stressed that weekend price action “should not be interpreted as a signal of trend continuation or reversal.”

Traders eye January bear flag breakdown repeat

For Bitcoin bulls, history risks repeating itself already this week — and just like before, bears appear to be in the driving seat.

Concerns revolve around another bear flag pattern currently playing out on the daily chart.

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Here, a macro downtrend is punctuated by a period of relief, giving some the impression that the trend has reversed. Price then drops through the bottom of the flag and the downtrend continues to new lows.

As Cointelegraph reported, traders have long warned about a second bear flag and its consequences after the first completed in January.

“It looks almost exactly the same. Bear Flag Breakdown & Retest with low volume on the upward move,” trader Roman told X followers last week after BTC/USD hit six-week highs of $76,000.

After the weekend, trader Jelle went further, suggesting that price had already broken support.

“Not a great way to start the week if you’re a bull. Consolidate here for a day or two and those untapped lows look ripe for the taking,” he warned.

BTC/USD chart. Source: Jelle/X

On Saturday, Keith Alan, cofounder of trading resource Material Indicators, suggested that the bear-flag breakdown target could be below $50,000.

Gold hits bear market on Iran oil woes

The worsening global energy crisis focused on the Middle East is already taking a fresh toll on risk assets and safe havens this week.

Asian stock markets tumbled during their first session, while gold and silver also came under heavy selling pressure. Bitcoin joined them, hitting two-week lows into Sunday’s weekly close. 

Commenting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter even suggested that the downside in gold could have claimed a large-volume market participant.

“The sporadic moves in price could signal that a potential large player in the space is being liquidated,” it told X followers.

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Kobeissi added that rising US 10-year treasury note yields were “beginning to weigh on various asset classes.”

“Combine this with headline fatigue and ‘pockets’ of illiquidity in the market, and the massive gaps to both directions are only growing,” it added. 

“Something big is happening metals markets right now.”

XAU/USD one-week chart with 50 EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Now down over 20% since its all-time high, XAU/USD officially entered bear-market territory, hitting local lows of $4,099 per ounce — a level not seen since November 2025.

Oil, meanwhile, increasingly sought to stay above the $100 mark as uncertainty over flows through the Strait of Hormuz continued.

In the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company stressed the potential impact on future US inflation readings.

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“Oil prices are directly correlated to headline inflation, where a $10 increase per barrel can push inflation higher by 0.20% or more. And even before the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, there are growing signs that inflation is already inflecting higher,” it noted.

CFDs on WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Risk-asset hope remains despite hawkish Fed

This week has little by way of key inflation reports, with jobless claims and S&P Flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data taking center stage.

Crypto has shown sensitivity to PMI releases in recent months, with US manufacturing finally on the up after several years of retraction.

At the same time, headwinds from the Iran war are mounting, as shown by the hawkish tone from the US Federal Reserve at last week’s meeting.

After leaving interest rates unchanged, Chair Jerome Powell said that any loosening of policy would now depend on “progress” being made on inflation. 

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“As a result, the market is quickly repricing the outlook for rate cuts,” Mosaic Asset Company commented. 

“While market-implied odds don’t point to another rate cut for over a year, another key indicator is suggesting that rate hikes could be in store.”

Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group FedWatch Tool

The conservative stance came despite weakening US labor-market conditions — traditionally cause to reassess restrictive policy measures.

A silver lining, however, could lie in store for risk assets in the form of historical patterns repeating. As Cointelegraph reported, crypto’s positive stocks correlation has recently grown.

“Conditions across breadth and sentiment are evolving to support a rally in the S&P 500. At the same time, historic precedent for market movements around major geopolitical events also hint that a rebound could be in store for the stock market,” Mosaic continued.

Kobeissi had similar ideas, reporting “skyrocketing” trading activity across stocks and last week’s giant options expiry event freeing up capital.

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“Friday’s volume was also amplified by ~$5.7 trillion in options tied to US stocks, indexes, and ETFs expiring in the largest March triple-witching in at least 30 years,” it wrote on X. 

“The massive volume of expired options has released billions in capital, which could drive significant market swings this week. Brace for more market volatility.”

S&P 500 ETF chart with volume data. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X

Bitcoin old hands sell at a loss

Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) are feeling the pressure at current levels — even without a rematch with range lows.

Related: Bitcoin RSI signals potential bottom as analysts flag key setup

CryptoQuant research reveals “capitulation” signals from the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric, which measures whether coins moving onchain are doing so at a higher or lower price than during their previous transaction.

SOPR readings below 1 mean that the observed supply — in this case that owned by LTHs — is on aggregate moving at a loss.

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“On March 11, the Bitcoin Long-Term Holder SOPR dropped to 0.64, meaning long-term holders were selling their coins at a 36% loss relative to their cost basis. This is one of the most extreme LTH capitulation readings in recent months,” contributor The Enigma Trader commented. 

“A value this far below 1.0 indicates that even patient, conviction holders were being shaken out, a sign of genuine fear in the market.”

Bitcoin LTH-SOPR chart with 30-day SMA. Source: CryptoQuant

The 30-day moving average of LTH-SOPR is still below 1 — even as large tranches of BTC leave exchanges in a potential emerging accumulation trend.

“One possible interpretation: while long-term holders were capitulating between March 10–20, a separate cohort was quietly absorbing supply and moving coins off exchanges,” it continued. 

“Distribution and accumulation happening simultaneously, a classic phase transition setup.”