Against the backdrop of military developments in the Middle East, the situation in the oil market is evolving rapidly. Only two days have passed since 9 March, when we published a morning analytical note in which we:

→ highlighted the rise of XTI/USD above $100 and a sharp spike in volatility (as reflected by the ATR indicator);
→ outlined an ascending channel and pointed to signs of a bearish engulfing pattern, suggesting that sellers were gaining the initiative.

Subsequent price action in the following hours confirmed that selling pressure was strong enough to break below the lower boundary of the channel later that same day. This occurred amid statements from President Trump, and a wide bearish candle formed on the XTI/USD chart.

On 10 March, the former lower boundary of the channel (marked by red arrows) acted as resistance while traders closely monitored developments around the Strait of Hormuz. According to The Wall Street Journal, the International Energy Agency proposed the largest oil reserve release in its history, which added another bearish factor for the market.

Technical Analysis of the XTI/USD Chart

Today the oil market remains highly volatile. Although the ATR indicator is pointing lower, its readings remain far above typical levels.

The sequence of lower highs and lower lows in WTI prices over the past 36 hours outlines the structure of a potential downward trajectory (shown in red). However, the chart also suggests that sustained downside momentum remains uncertain. This is reflected in the aggressive rebound from yesterday’s low.

It is possible that the XTI/USD price may continue to fluctuate within the orange range defined by the bearish candle formed on 9 March until significant news emerges that could shift the current balance in the market. In particular, traders remain focused on the risks of further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Since the emergence of ChatGPT and chatbots, the artificial intelligence (AI) hype has evolved into “agentic payments,” billed as the next wave of internet commerce in which humans won’t be transacting.

It will be AI agents paying each other: The idea is simple: build automated payment rails using AI agents that traditional firms like credit card companies struggle with.

And the narrative around agentic payments is only growing, with crypto CEOs like Brian Armstrong and CZ hyping AI agents and McKinsey saying AI agents could mediate $3 trillion to $5 trillion of global consumer commerce by 2030.

This is where x402, an agentic payments protocol supported by a consortium that includes Coinbase, comes into play. The idea is ambitious: embed payments via stablecoins directly into the internet’s communication layer so software can charge other software automatically.

Supporters of x402 believe that the protocol could enable a new class of internet businesses built around tiny automated payments. Traditional payment rails, such as credit card networks, were designed for human commerce, not thousands of sub-cent payments between software services.

“Existing payment processors will find it difficult to onboard these merchants. Not because the technology is lacking, but because when a processor says yes to a merchant, it takes on that merchant’s risk,” said Noah Levine, a partner at a16z crypto.

Take the scenario Levine laid out as an example: an AI agent tasked by a human to complete research might call a specialized API tens of thousands of times. Each request might cost a fraction of a cent.

Over the course of a week, those calls might generate $40 in revenue for the developer running the service. Credit card firms struggle with these small payments and merchants, as they can’t verify them.

“Processors reject applicants they cannot underwrite. A tool with no website, no entity, and no track record is extremely difficult to underwrite,” Levine added.

On top of that, processing fees alone can exceed these micro payments, and payment processors usually require a middleman and an operating history before approving a merchant account.

X402 could solve this problem with agentic payments via stablecoins.

Even the name x402 itself hints at the project’s ambition. It references HTTP 402 — “Payment Required” — a status code reserved in the early days of the internet for a future where payments could be built directly into web requests. That vision never materialized in the traditional web, and the supporters of x402 think crypto rails could finally make it possible.

However, the problem is that the tech is still early and hasn’t translated into onchain use quite yet.

‘Mostly a mirage’

Onchain analysis from Artemis suggests that roughly half of observed x402 transactions reflect artificial activity, calling them “gamified” activities rather than genuine commerce.

“The x402 ‘agent payments’ boom is still mostly a mirage,” Artemis analyst wrote on X in February.

Recent daily snapshots show about 131,000 transactions generating roughly $28,000 in volume, with the average payment worth around $0.20.

The network has recorded sharper bursts of activity, including one day in February that logged 3.8 million transactions and roughly $2 million in volume. But onchain analysts at Artemis say much of that spike was due to infrastructure testing and experimental use.

Artemis categorizes these “gamed” transactions into two buckets: Self-dealing, where the same wallet acts as both buyer and seller, and wash trading, where the seller funds the buyer’s wallet, which then sends the money back immediately after the transaction.

In other words, a lot of the traffic running through the protocol today does not yet resemble commerce.

However, in these early days of network testing, such types of transactions are to be expected. “As teams move from testing to production and start serving real users, these percentages should naturally decline,” Artemis said.

“Open standards like x402 are designed to be permissionless and open, meaning no single entity governs every interaction – much like how no one ‘controls’ every computer using HTTP. Naturally, this means people will experiment with the system in sometimes unintended ways,” Erik Reppel, Head of Engineering for Coinbase Developer Platform and Founder of x402 told CoinDesk.

A $7 billion ecosystem?

This gap between what’s real and what’s “gamed” transaction can make the ecosystem look underwhelming at first glance.

And looking at the total ecosystem’s total market cap (aggregate value of all tokens and projects built within a network and not to be confused with the total market cap of the network’s token, as the token for x402 doesn’t exist), which currently is around $7 billion, seems out of sync with about $28,000 in daily payment volume.

Given the gap, some might even be ready to dismiss the thesis as wishful thinking, sort of like crypto gaming of the past with massive valuations and few users.

But CoinGecko’s category shouldn’t be taken at face value as it includes Chainlink’s LINK token, which has a market cap of $6.3 billion. LINK isn’t a pure-play x402 asset.

While Chainlink supports the protocol through integrations such as its Chainlink Runtime Environment, LINK predates x402 and plays a far broader role across other crypto infrastructure. Its inclusion in the category artificially inflates it, setting expectations too high for such a new protocol.

Still early?

While adjusting for the large contribution from LINK token’s market cap, the ecosystem may look closer to the reality of the transactions, the core challenge remains: the merchants that x402 is designed to serve are still rare.

The x402 protocol isn’t trying to replace cards or traditional payment systems. Instead, it’s targeting a new category of digital commerce — small automated services used by AI agents and software systems.

As AI tools make it easier to build and launch software, a growing number of developers are creating small, single-purpose services — data feeds, image processors, code-testing tools — designed to be consumed not by humans but by other software.

And that takes time.

“At its core, it’s a micropayments rail,” said an Artemis analyst. “Its true utility emerges at small transaction sizes, powering things like pay-per-use APIs, content generation, and agent coordination.

For now, however, those merchants remain rare at this stage of this new agentic commerce.

Earlier attempts at similar ideas in crypto have struggled to gain traction. Micropayment systems tied to the Lightning Network, browser monetization models like BAT$0.09734 ecosystem, and various decentralized compute marketplaces all promised new internet economies but often failed to attract sustained real-world usage.

The narrative around agentic commerce is growing faster than the usage that would justify it. The gap between the protocol’s ecosystem size and roughly $28,000 in daily payment volume shows that the infrastructure for agentic payments is arriving first, but the economy it’s meant to support may take longer to develop.

However, the vision behind x402 — an internet where AI agents seamlessly pay each other through stablecoins — remains compelling. “We’ll probably overestimate how fast agentic commerce takes off in the next year, but we’re largely underestimating what it can become in five,” said the Artemis analyst.

“When agentic commerce arrives, you’ll either have adopted the standard or you’ll be left behind.”

Data from on-chain analytics firm Santiment shows that Ethereum now has more than three times the number of holders as Bitcoin, showing the network’s broader adoption even as traders closely monitor ETH’s price.

Ethereum holders now triple Bitcoin’s, Santiment data shows

According to Santiment’s latest data, Ethereum (ETH) currently has around 182.7 million non-empty wallets, compared with roughly 58.5 million Bitcoin (BTC) wallets.

The data indicates that Ethereum has maintained a significant lead in wallet holders since February 2019, when the network first surpassed Bitcoin in total addresses with balances.

The gap has continued to widen in the years since, reflecting Ethereum’s role as the backbone for decentralized finance, stablecoins, NFTs and other blockchain applications that often require multiple wallet interactions.

Bitcoin, by contrast, is primarily used as a store of value, which typically results in fewer active addresses relative to its market size.

Despite the strong adoption metrics, Ethereum’s price has shown modest weakness in recent trading. ETH was trading at around $2,023 at the time of writing, down roughly 1.1% over the past 24 hours, as the broader crypto market consolidates.

Some traders believe the current price range could represent a critical accumulation zone. Crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader suggested that Ethereum is entering a “discount zone” similar to the structure that preceded its 2023 rally.

According to the analyst, the $2,000 level is the key threshold to watch. Holding above that mark could potentially trigger the next major bullish wave for ETH, while a breakdown below it could extend the current correction.

TLDR:

• Ripple will acquire BC Payments Australia Pty Ltd to secure its Australian Financial Services License in 2026.
• The AFSL enables Ripple Payments to manage the full transaction lifecycle, from compliance to final payout settlement.
• Ripple’s APAC payments volume nearly doubled year-on-year in 2025, reflecting strong demand across the region.
• Ripple now holds over 75 regulatory licenses globally, making it one of the most licensed crypto firms worldwide.

Australian Financial Services License (AFSL) acquisition plans mark Ripple’s latest regulatory move in Asia Pacific. The blockchain payments company announced the strategy on March 11, 2026, in Sydney.

Ripple will obtain the license through a proposed acquisition of BC Payments Australia Pty Ltd. The move enables Ripple to deliver a fully licensed, end-to-end payments platform. Financial institutions, fintechs, and enterprises in Australia are the primary targets of this expansion.

How Ripple Plans to Secure the AFSL

The AFSL acquisition proceeds through BC Payments Australia Pty Ltd, a local entity. Standard completion processes must be finalized before the deal closes.

Once secured, the license covers the full lifecycle of a transaction. This includes onboarding, compliance, FX, liquidity management, and final payout.

Ripple Payments will integrate both traditional banking rails and digital assets under the license. Direct oversight of settlement becomes possible through this structure.

The company can also connect customers to local payout partners more efficiently. Transaction routing optimization adds further value to the platform.

Fiona Murray, Ripple’s Managing Director for Asia Pacific, spoke directly on the development. “Licensing is fundamental to Ripple’s strategy, ensuring we can deliver secure, compliant solutions to customers worldwide,” she said.

She added that the AFSL “strengthens our ability to scale Ripple Payments across the region.” Murray further noted that the company remains “focused on working closely with regulators to support the next phase of growth for digital asset infrastructure.”

Ripple’s existing Australian customers include Hai Ha Money Transfer, Novatti Group, and Independent Reserve. Flash Payments, Caleb & Brown, and Stables also form part of that client base.

These partnerships reflect strong regional demand for Ripple’s infrastructure. APAC payments volume for the company nearly doubled year-on-year in 2025.

Ripple’s Regulatory Standing Across the APAC Region

Ripple’s AFSL pursuit builds on a broad global licensing strategy already in place. The company is among the most licensed crypto firms operating in the world today.

Few digital asset companies operate under this level of regulatory oversight. That standing gives Ripple an advantage as institutions modernize their payment systems.

The company also participates actively in Project Acacia. This initiative is led by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Digital Finance Cooperative Research Centre.

Ripple works directly with regulators through the program to advance digital asset frameworks. Such engagement reflects a consistent commitment to policy collaboration across the region.

Murray also emphasized the role of blockchain technology in delivering results for customers. “By leveraging blockchain technology and digital assets, we enable customers to move value globally with greater speed, transparency, and reliability,” she stated.

That capability is central to Ripple’s regional growth plan. It also addresses a clear need among financial institutions shifting away from legacy infrastructure.

As institutions migrate from legacy technology to modern infrastructure, regulatory compliance grows in importance. Ripple’s licensing approach supports that transition directly.

The AFSL adds credibility to Ripple’s operations in Australia. The company continues expanding its regulated footprint to meet growing regional demand.

Key takeaways

• BIP-360 formally puts quantum resistance on Bitcoin’s road map for the first time. It represents a measured, incremental step rather than a dramatic cryptographic overhaul.

• Quantum risk primarily targets exposed public keys, not Bitcoin’s SHA-256 hashing, making public key exposure the central vulnerability developers aim to reduce.

• BIP-360 introduces Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR), which removes Taproot’s key path spending option and forces all spends through script paths to minimize elliptic curve exposure.

• Smart contract flexibility remains intact, as P2MR still supports multisig, timelocks and complex custody structures via Tapscript Merkle trees.

Bitcoin was built to withstand hostile economic, political and technical scenarios. As of March 10, 2026, its developers are preparing to confront an emerging threat: quantum computing.

The recent publication of Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 360 (BIP-360) officially adds quantum resistance to Bitcoin’s long-term technical road map for the first time. While some headlines portray it as a dramatic shift, the reality is far more measured and incremental.

This article explores how BIP-360 introduces Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR) to reduce Bitcoin’s quantum exposure by removing Taproot key path spending. It explains what the proposal improves, what trade-offs it introduces and why it does not yet make Bitcoin fully post-quantum secure.

Why quantum computing poses a risk to Bitcoin

For security, Bitcoin depends on cryptography, primarily the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) and Schnorr signatures introduced via Taproot. Regular computers cannot realistically derive a private key from a public key. However, a powerful quantum computer running Shor’s algorithm could break elliptic curve discrete logarithms, exposing those keys.

Key distinctions include:

• Quantum attacks hit public-key cryptography hardest, not hashing.

• Bitcoin’s SHA-256 remains relatively strong against quantum methods. Grover’s algorithm only provides a quadratic speedup, not an exponential one.

• The real risk appears when public keys become exposed on the blockchain.

This is why the community focuses on public key exposure as the primary quantum risk vector.

Bitcoin’s vulnerabilities in 2026

Not every address type in the Bitcoin network faces the same level of future quantum threat:

• Reused addresses: Spending reveals the public key onchain, leaving it exposed to a future cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC).

• Legacy pay to public key (P2PK) outputs: Early Bitcoin transactions directly embedded public keys in transaction outputs.

• Taproot key path spends: Taproot (2021) offers two paths: a compact key path (which exposes a tweaked public key on spend) or a script path (which reveals scripts via a Merkle proof). The key path is the main theoretical weak point under a quantum attack.

BIP-360 directly targets that key path exposure.

What BIP-360 introduces: P2MR

BIP-360 adds a new output type, Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR), modeled closely on Taproot but with one critical change. It removes the key path spending option entirely.

Instead of committing to an internal public key like Taproot, P2MR commits solely to the Merkle root of a script tree. To spend:

No public key based spending route exists at all.

Eliminating key path spends means:

• No public key exposure for direct signature checks.

• All spending routes rely on hash-based commitments.

• Long-term elliptic curve public key exposure drops sharply.

Hash-based methods are far more resilient to quantum attacks than elliptic curve assumptions. This significantly shrinks the attack surface.

What BIP-360 preserves

A common misconception is that dropping key path spending weakens smart contracts or scripting. It does not. P2MR fully supports:

• Multisig setups

• Timelocks

• Conditional payments

• Inheritance schemes

• Advanced custody

BIP-360 executes all these functions via Tapscript Merkle trees. While the process retains full scripting capability, the convenient but vulnerable direct signature shortcut disappears.

Did you know? Satoshi Nakamoto briefly acknowledged quantum computing in early forum discussions, suggesting that if it became practical, Bitcoin could migrate to stronger signature schemes. This shows that upgrade flexibility was always part of the design philosophy.

Practical implications of BIP-360

BIP-360 may sound like a purely technical refinement, but its impact would be felt at the wallet, exchange and custody levels. If activated, it would gradually reshape how new Bitcoin outputs are created, spent and secured, especially for users prioritizing long-term quantum resilience.

• Wallets could introduce opt-in P2MR addresses (likely starting with “bc1z”) as a “quantum-hardened” choice for new coins or long-term holdings.

• Transactions will be slightly larger (more witness data from script paths), potentially raising fees somewhat compared to Taproot key path spends. Security trades off against compactness.

• A full rollout would require updates to wallets, exchanges, custodians and hardware wallets. Planning should start years in advance.

Did you know? Governments are already preparing for “harvest now, decrypt later” risks, where encrypted data is stored today in anticipation of future quantum decryption. This strategy mirrors concerns about exposed Bitcoin public keys.

What BIP-360 explicitly does not do

While BIP-360 strengthens Bitcoin in the face of future quantum threats, it is not a sweeping cryptographic overhaul. Understanding its limits is just as important as understanding its innovations:

• No automatic upgrade for existing coins: Old unspent transaction outputs (UTXO) remain vulnerable until users manually move funds to P2MR outputs. Migration depends on user behavior.

• No new post-quantum signatures: BIP-360 does not replace ECDSA or Schnorr with lattice-based (for example, Dilithium or ML-DSA) or hash-based (for example SPHINCS+) schemes. It only removes the Taproot key path exposure pattern. A full base layer transition to post-quantum signatures would require a much larger change.

• No complete quantum immunity: A sudden CRQC breakthrough would still require massive coordination among miners, nodes, exchanges and custodians. Dormant coins could create complex governance issues and network stress could follow.

Why developers are acting now

Quantum progress is uncertain. Some believe it is decades away. Others point to IBM’s late 2020s fault-tolerant goals, Google’s chip advances, Microsoft’s topological research and US government transitions planned for 2030-2035.

Critical infrastructure migrations take many years. Bitcoin’s developers stress planning across BIP design, software, infrastructure and user adoption. Waiting for certainty in quantum progress could leave insufficient time for infrastructure upgrades.

If consensus builds, a phased soft fork could unfold:

1. Activate the P2MR output type

2. Wallets, exchanges and custodians add support

3. Gradual user migration over years

This mirrors the optional then widespread adoption of SegWit and Taproot.

The broader debate around BIP-360

Debate continues on urgency and costs. Questions under discussion include:

• Are modest fee increases acceptable for HODLers?

• Should institutions lead the migration?

• What about coins that never move?

• How should wallets signal “quantum safety” without causing unnecessary alarm?

This is an ongoing conversation. BIP-360 advances the discussion but does not close it.

Did you know? The idea that quantum computers could threaten cryptography dates back to 1994, when mathematician Peter Shor introduced Shor’s algorithm, long before Bitcoin existed. Bitcoin’s future quantum planning is essentially a response to a 30-year-old theoretical breakthrough.

What users can do right now

There is no need to panic for now, as quantum threats are not imminent. Prudent steps you might take include:

• Never reuse addresses

• Stick to up-to-date wallet software

• Follow protocol upgrade news

• Watch for P2MR support in wallets

Those with large holdings should quietly map exposures and consider contingency plans.

BIP-360: The first step toward quantum resistance

BIP-360 represents Bitcoin’s first concrete step toward reducing its quantum exposure at the protocol level. It redefines how new outputs can be created, minimizes public key leaks and sets the stage for long-term migration planning.

It does not change existing coins automatically, keeps current signatures intact and underscores the need for a careful, coordinated ecosystem-wide effort. True quantum resistance will come from sustained engineering and phased adoption, not a single BIP.

ICP soared by 16% after being listed on South Korea’s largest exchange, but will the momentum last?

Internet Computer (ICP) saw its price explode by roughly 16% following its listing on South Korea’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, Upbit.

The altcoin’s value rose from around $2.35 to a high of $2.73 within minutes of the announcement. Trading pairs include ICP/KRW, ICP/BTC, and ICP/USDT.

In case you’re wondering, exchange listings on major centralized venues have historically led to considerable price increases for newly listed cryptocurrencies. This is especially true for altcoins with thinner market depth, where it’s easier to move the price with smaller amounts.

Upbit is currently the third-largest centralized spot exchange in the world, with a 24-hour trading volume of around $1.16 billion, according to CoinMarketCap, trailing only Binance and Coinbase.

ICP is the 47th largest cryptocurrency by means of total market capitalization ($550M) and around $147 million in 24-hour trading volume – a metric that’s a whopping 170% up in the past day, showcasing the impact of the listing.

Usually, though, these moves are not as sustainable and result in reversals, but it’s interesting to see if ICP will follow a similar path.

The PI token exceeded $0.23 earlier today before it retraced slightly.

The updates recently implemented by the team, as well as the upcoming ones, continue to benefit Pi Network’s underlying asset, as PI is among the few alts in the green today.

Aside from the expected completion of protocol v20.2 upgrade by tomorrow, the Pi Network community is also anticipating Pi Day – March 14.

Pi’s Upcoming Updates

The past several weeks have been quite eventful for Pi Network, especially in terms of upgrades and price movements. On February 21, the team announced that the protocol v19.6 migration was successfully completed, and the subsequent v19.9 iteration arrived on March 4.

They explained at the time that the v20.2 update was next in line, with initial deadline expectations set for March 14, which was later moved to March 12. Both of the already completed updates were followed by impressive price gains from PI, and it seems the hype about the upcoming upgrade has not disappointed so far.

Another factor that could be boosting the native token is the buildup to what became known as Pi Day, March 14, due to its symbolic resemblance to the mathematical constant π. As it happened last year, the community has hyped itself up, expecting some major announcements, perhaps a listing on a top-tier exchange such as Binance.

PI Defies Market Correction

As mentioned above, the protocol updates and perhaps anticipation for Pi Day have resulted in impressive gains for PI lately. The token is up by over 6% in the past day and sits just inches below $0.23. Moreover, it’s one of the best-performing crypto assets on a monthly scale, gaining 56%, and it’s up by 73% since its latest all-time low of $0.1312 marked on February 11.

A few things to consider for its future price moves include the token unlock schedule, as over 13.5 million coins will be unlocked in three consecutive days starting today, and the number will jump to 17 million on March 17. Additionally, PI has a history of performing well in the weeks leading up to big announcements or updates, only to crash hard after in a classic sell-the-news event.

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Bitcoin staking infrastructure developer Babylon Labs has integrated with Ledger, a cryptocurrency hardware wallet maker, in a move that could make it easier for holders to put their Bitcoin (BTC) to work in financial applications without giving up self-custody.

In a Tuesday announcement, the companies said Ledger signers will be used for Babylon’s Trustless Bitcoin Vaults, also known as BTCVaults. The vaults allow BTC holders to lock their tokens into programmable contracts governed by onchain conditions while retaining self-custody of the underlying asset.

Ledger devices will act as the secure signing layer for BTCVault transactions, enabling users to authorize vault interactions directly from their hardware wallet.

The feature relies on Ledger’s Clear Signing technology, which displays human-readable transaction details on the device screen so users can verify exactly what they are approving before signing. The approach is designed to reduce the risk of signing malicious or opaque transactions, a common concern in crypto workflows.

The tie-up is significant given Ledger’s scale as a hardware wallet provider, with the company reporting more than 8 million devices sold globally. As Cointelegraph recently reported, Ledger is said to be in talks with major financial institutions about a US initial public offering. 

Related: Ledger and Trezor 2025 hardware wallets released: What’s new for users?

Digital asset vaults growth surges

Self-custodial vaults are emerging as a growing use case in digital assets as users look for ways to put their crypto to work without relinquishing control of their funds. 

Unlike traditional custodial platforms, where assets are deposited with an exchange or intermediary, vaults are typically governed by programmable conditions that allow users to retain ownership while participating in lending, staking or yield strategies.

Vault strategies have gained traction in decentralized finance. Protocols such as Yearn Finance popularized the concept through automated yield vaults that allocate user deposits across lending and liquidity markets. 

More recently, messaging platform Telegram introduced vault-style yield products within its integrated crypto wallet, allowing users to deposit assets such as Bitcoin, Ether (ETH) and Tether’s USDt (USDT) into structured strategies designed to generate returns.

Institutional players are also joining the fray. Asset manager Bitwise recently collaborated with DeFi lending protocol Morpho to curate onchain vault strategies designed to generate yield through overcollateralized lending markets.

Related: Bitcoin company Fold pays off $66M debt, frees up BTC collateral