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Dollar Strengthens on Middle East Tensions

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Dollar Strengthens on Middle East Tensions

The dollar strengthened as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified. Heightened uncertainty traditionally boosts demand for safe-haven assets and dollar liquidity, supporting the US currency against a range of peers. An additional factor remains the resilience of US macroeconomic indicators, which limits expectations of an imminent easing of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

Amid the escalation of the conflict, investors are reducing risk exposure and reallocating capital into more defensive instruments. As a result, volatility has increased and capital inflows into dollar-denominated assets have strengthened, while traditional safe-haven currencies are showing a mixed reaction.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair maintains its upward structure and is approaching the year’s highs in the 158.40–159.50 range. Despite the yen’s status as a “safe-haven asset”, the dollar retains the advantage due to higher US Treasury yields and stable expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s policy rate. Should geopolitical tensions continue to intensify, a spike in volatility and a sharp correction towards 157.00 are possible; however, momentum currently remains on the dollar’s side.

Key events for USD/JPY:

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  • today at 15:15 (GMT+2): US ADP non-farm employment change;
  • today at 16:45 (GMT+2): US services sector business activity index;
  • today at 17:00 (GMT+2): US ISM non-manufacturing PMI.

USD/CHF

The USD/CHF pair is showing moderate dollar strength, although price action remains relatively restrained due to the Swiss franc’s “safe-haven” status. Nevertheless, technical analysis of USD/CHF suggests potential upside towards 0.7900–0.7950, as a “bullish engulfing” pattern has formed and been confirmed on the daily timeframe. The bullish scenario would be invalidated by a confident move below 0.7780.

Key events for USD/CHF:

  • today at 09:30 (GMT+2): Switzerland consumer price index;
  • today at 11:30 (GMT+2): Swiss National Bank press conference;
  • tomorrow at 10:00 (GMT+2): Switzerland unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted).

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Crypto World

Kraken Secures Federal Reserve Master Account: WSJ

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Kraken Secures Federal Reserve Master Account: WSJ

Kraken Financial has gained direct access to US Federal Reserve’s payment systems via a Kansas City Fed approval, though without full banking privileges such as interest on reserves.

US cryptocurrency exchange Kraken has become the first company to secure a master account from the US Federal Reserve, The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday.

Kraken Financial, the exchange’s banking unit, has gained access to the Fed’s key payment systems, allowing the platform to move money on the same rails used by banks and credit unions, according to The WSJ.

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The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, which oversaw its application, and Kraken, trading as Payward, are expected to announce the approval Wednesday.

The news marks a significant milestone for the crypto industry in the US, though the approval does not provide the full range of services available to banks, including payment of interest on reserves held at the central bank.

Several crypto companies in the US have been pursuing a master account with the Fed for years, with Caitlin Long’s Custodia Bank doubling down on efforts to obtain one through a court petition in late 2025.

A “historic shift” for the US crypto industry

The decision marks a “historic shift” for the crypto industry in the US, journalist Eleanor Terrett wrote in an X post, highlighting that it signals a softer tone at the Fed, which critics had previously described as hostile to crypto under the prior administration.

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“The decision also impliedly recognizes that the Fed believes Kraken has sufficient anti-money laundering and sanctions compliance practices to curb illicit finance risk, and that Wyoming’s regulatory framework for special purpose depository institutions is in line with Federal banking standards,” Terrett said.

Kraken did not immediately respond to Cointelegraph’s request for comment.

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