Crypto World
Ether Holds $2K as $242M Spot ETH ETF Outflow Could Reignite Downside
Ether continues to hover near the $2,000 area, but the bulls facesheadwinds from a suite of macro and market dynamics that could cap any bounce. Traders are parsing corporate earnings guidance, the trajectory of US government debt refinancing, and mounting global tensions that can keep risk assets on a sensitive leash. After a brief rebound earlier in February, Ether has struggled to muster sustained upside as funding costs stay elevated and investors rotate toward liquidity in short-term Treasuries. The balance of on-chain activity, investor sentiment, and macro indicators will likely determine whether $2,000 acts as a magnet or a battleground for the next leg of this cycle.
Key takeaways
- Institutional demand for Ether is cooling as investors shift toward the safety of short-term US government bonds.
- High interest rates and rising ETH supply make the current staking yield less attractive for long-term holders.
- US-listed Ether ETFs posted net outflows, underscoring a shift in liquidity away from Ether-related products in the near term.
- Markets are pricing in the potential for further rate cuts by the Fed in 2026, as signs of economic stagnation temper inflationary risks.
Tickers mentioned: $ETH
Sentiment: Bearish
Price impact: Negative. Ether is facing renewed downside pressure amid macro headwinds and fading ETF inflows.
Market context: The broader crypto landscape remains heavily correlated with macro liquidity and risk sentiment. As investors reassess growth trajectories and central bank paths, flows into Ether ETFs and related instruments have become a bellwether for institutional appetite. With the 2-year US Treasury yield echoing the low- to mid-3% regime seen in recent sessions, traders anticipate a possible easing cycle later in the year, a dynamic that often trades off against appetite for higher-risk, high-utility assets like Ether.
Why it matters
Ether’s ability to sustain price strength is intimately tied to both on-chain economics and external financial conditions. The network’s staking yield—already a focal point for long-term holders—faces increased scrutiny as the annual ETH supply growth persists at roughly 0.8%. Against a backdrop of a stagnant or sluggish macro backdrop, a 2.9% staking yield becomes less compelling for risk-averse investors when the Fed’s target rate sits higher, and bond markets offer a comparatively safer carry. This dynamic can dampen the incentive to stake, potentially dampening network security metrics and long-term price resilience if the flow of fresh ETH to stake is subdued.
Market momentum has also been influenced by ETF mechanics. Recent outflows from US-listed Ether ETFs, totaling around $242 million over a short window, have erased earlier inflows that followed Ether’s bottoming around the mid-$1,700s in February. Although the outflows represent a fraction of total assets under management, they signal a shift in sentiment among institutional participants who previously sought exposure through regulated wrappers. Net flows matter because they influence price discovery and liquidity, especially in a market where players weigh the relative safety of traditional assets against the potential upside of a more scalable and active network.
From a technical and derivatives perspective, traders have grown more cautious. The options market shows a tilt toward downside protection, with the delta skew for Ether options tracing above longer-term averages as investors pay a premium for put-driven hedges or neutral-to-bearish bets. This mood aligns with the observation that the asset trades substantially below its all-time highs, and even a mid-cycle recovery may be met with sellers who view rallies as opportunities to exit risk exposure.
Even as macro narratives push risk-off tendencies, Ether’s position as the leading smart contract platform remains intact in terms of activity and TVL leadership. Yet, the near-term price path hinges on a confluence of factors: corporate earnings resonance, the pace of debt refinancing, and the macro impulse toward or away from expansionary fiscal measures. The market is also watching policy signals and potential regulatory clarity that could influence appetite for crypto assets overall. In parallel, other networks offering base-layer scalability and faster on-chain throughput keep pressuring ETH’s relative competitive stance, particularly when investors seek higher efficiency at a similar risk profile.
Overall, the market narrative remains cautious. Traders acknowledge that a meaningful downside could be tempered by supportive macro cues or favorable liquidity conditions, but the immediate trajectory appears tethered to external events rather than purely on-chain developments. In this environment, Ether’s price reactivity is likely to depend on the collectivity of earnings surprises, debt management decisions, and the speed at which risk appetite re-emerges after episodes of volatility.
What to watch next
- Upcoming corporate earnings season and guidance revisions that may influence broader risk sentiment.
- US government debt refinancing milestones and any shifts in fiscal policy that affect liquidity conditions.
- Net ETF flows for Ether products in the next reporting period and any changes in investor allocations.
- Macro data releases and Fed commentary that could solidify or alter expectations for rate cuts in 2026.
- On-chain activity and staking metrics that could alter the relative attractiveness of ETH staking over time.
Sources & verification
- US-listed Ether ETF net flow data and related commentary from market trackers and issuer analyses.
- Pricing and yield data for the US 2-year Treasury, with context on regime expectations for Fed policy.
- Historical ETH price actions, including the February bottom around $1,744 and subsequent recovery patterns.
- Derivatives metrics for ETH, including delta skew readings from Deribit via data providers.
- On-chain and market commentary describing total value locked and network leadership dynamics in short- to mid-term cycles.
Ether under pressure as macro cues weigh on ETH
Ether (Ether (CRYPTO: ETH)) has spent recent sessions hovering near the $2,000 level, with constraints on a sustained move above roughly $2,150 since early February. The hesitation is not solely technical; it reflects a complex interplay between macro policy expectations, investor risk appetite, and the evolving structure of liquidity in crypto markets. After a brief bounce off a February trough around the mid-$1,700s, Ether’s price action has cooled as traders reassess the durability of any rally in the face of higher funding costs and competing opportunities in fixed income.
One of the critical macro signals comes from the bond market. The US two-year Treasury yield has moved toward the lower end of its range, around the 3.4% area, signaling that participants anticipate a more accommodative stance from the Federal Reserve in the coming years. This shift in rate expectations tends to push investors toward safer assets, including government debt, and away from higher-beta risk assets like Ether. The dynamic is reinforced by growth signals that, at least in the near term, point toward a more tepid expansion, which reduces inflationary pressure and can further support a cautious easing bias by the Fed.
In the near term, the ETF landscape remains a focal point. After a period of resilience, US-listed Ether ETFs posted net outflows that overshadowed earlier inflows tied to the recovery from the February dip. The outflows—calibrated against a substantial asset base—suggest that some institutional participants have scaled back their near-term exposure, contributing to soft price action. This is particularly relevant given that the broader crypto market often tracks risk-on/risk-off sentiment as much as, if not more than, internal on-chain metrics.
On-chain and derivatives metrics offer a complementary view of sentiment. The ETH options market has shown elevated demand for hedges, with the delta skew for 30-day options remaining elevated and indicating a willingness among professional traders to pay for protection against downside moves. The dataset, drawn from sources measuring the put-call balance, underscores a prevailing mood of caution among market participants who are mindful of the higher probability of further drawdowns given the current macro backdrop. This sentiment aligns with the six-month bear-market narrative, as Ether trades well below its all-time high and investors weigh the risk/reward of staking versus holding for appreciation.
Supply dynamics also weigh on the long-term narrative. Ether’s annualized supply growth sits modestly positive, while the immediate yield offered by staking remains modest in comparison to the prevailing interest rate environment. For long-term holders, the attractiveness of staking becomes a function of both yield and the perceived safety of ETH as a platform with continued innovation and network effects. The tug of war between yield, risk, and network activity will help determine whether staking becomes a stronger driver of price stability or a source of selling pressure if yields fail to outpace risk premia in traditional markets.
Market leadership in on-chain activity and TVL remains a strength of the Ethereum ecosystem, which helps to anchor Ether’s longer-term narrative even as near-term price action exhibits caution. However, the combination of macro sensitivity, ETF flow dynamics, and derivatives positioning means that the path forward is likely to be incremental rather than transformative in the near term. Investors will be watching not only macro indicators and corporate earnings but also regulatory clarity and liquidity shifts that could redefine the risk landscape for crypto assets in the months ahead. The outcome will shape whether Ether can regain momentum or continue to trade in a constrained range as the market reconciles macro expectations with the evolving use cases on Ethereum’s network.
For readers tracking the broader macro and on-chain narrative, the next few weeks will be telling. If inflation eases more rapidly than anticipated or if the Fed signals a clearer path toward rate cuts, risk appetite could stabilize and support a healthier Ether environment. Conversely, if growth indicators surprise to the downside or if liquidity conditions tighten further, ETH could test new near-term lows as traders search for safety and retreat from higher-risk exposures.
Mainland China widens its crypto ban to cover RMB-pegged stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets, even as Hong Kong pushes ahead with a licensed stablecoin regime.
Summary
- A new joint notice from the PBoC, CSRC and other agencies extends China’s virtual currency ban to tokenized real-world assets, treating many RWA platforms as illegal finance if unlicensed.
- The rules bar any domestic or controlled entity from issuing RMB-pegged stablecoins abroad without approval, tighten mining enforcement, and target “shadow” data centers that secretly run rigs.
- Hong Kong moves in the opposite direction, with the HKMA preparing its first stablecoin licenses as firms like Ant Group and JD.com apply, even as Beijing flags crime and dollar-stablecoin risks.
China’s central bank and top regulatory authorities have extended the country’s cryptocurrency ban to include tokenization of real-world assets and stablecoins, according to a new regulatory notice.
China issues new stablecoin guidance
The People’s Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, along with other agencies, released the notice to prevent and resolve risks associated with virtual currencies. Virtual currencies and mining remain completely prohibited in China under the expanded framework.
The notice requires prior authorization for the issuance of stablecoins tied to the renminbi outside the country. Domestic businesses and foreign entities under their control cannot issue virtual currencies worldwide unless they have obtained necessary permits from relevant authorities in accordance with applicable laws and regulations, the notice stated.
The regulatory framework emphasizes that monetary sovereignty is affected by stablecoins related to legal tender since they perform certain functions in circulation and usage. No entity or individual, domestic or foreign, can issue any RMB-pegged stablecoin outside the country without appropriate authorizations, according to the notice.
The notice reiterates the prohibition of virtual currency-related companies and the need to continue regulating virtual currency mining. The National Development and Reform Commission and relevant agencies will continue implementing stringent regulations on mining operations, the document stated.
Regulatory concerns include organizations appearing to be data centers but actually engaged in mining, managers moving equipment between areas to avoid local oversight, and correlation between some mining operations and speculation and trading in virtual currencies, according to the notice.
The notice establishes ground rules for tokenization of real-world assets, including compliance criteria. Regulators defined tokenization as using encryption and distributed ledger technology for the issuance and trading of rights to ownership, income, and other interests in assets.
Providing intermediary or technology services for RWA tokenization activities in China, as well as engaging in such activities, may be considered unlawful financial operations, the notice stated. The framework forbids the illegal sale of tokenized securities, the sale of securities to the public without proper authority, the trading of criminal securities or futures, and the solicitation of funds without a proper license.
The notice indicates possible exclusions for commercial operations carried out using specified financial infrastructure and with approval of relevant authorities under current laws and regulations. The entity with actual control over underlying assets is required to file a report with the CSRC before participating in related operations, according to regulatory guidelines.
Overseas issuance paperwork must describe the domestic filing company, underlying assets, token issuance strategy, and related details in depth, along with other relevant documentation, the notice stated.
Despite mainland opposition to cryptocurrency activity, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority is planning to grant an initial set of stablecoin licenses in March. Eddie Yue, chief executive of the HKMA, said in a Legislative Council meeting that a decision was hoped for by March.
The government is evaluating dozens of applications submitted by stablecoin issuers. The HKMA began accepting applications after Hong Kong passed a Stablecoins Ordinance requiring permits for entities that issue stablecoins in the territory or link them to the Hong Kong dollar.
Stablecoins are digital currencies designed to maintain steady values by being linked to assets such as traditional currencies or gold. The HKMA has discussed regional uses including tokenized deposit systems for foreign banks and cross-border payments, according to reports.
Ant Group and JD.com have expressed interest in Hong Kong’s licensing framework, according to the Financial Times. Preparations in Hong Kong were halted after Chinese authorities, notably the People’s Bank of China, raised reservations, the Financial Times reported.
China’s regulatory framework on cryptocurrency tightened from 2013 onward, and concerns about volatility and illegal activity led to a total ban on cryptocurrency transactions in 2021.
Recent research indicates that stablecoins were used by organized crime to move illicit funds, with daily transfers facilitated by complex networks, according to reports. Beijing’s concerns include the growing role of the US dollar in the digital asset market, especially dollar-tied stablecoins.
At a recent Senate Banking Committee hearing, the US Treasury Secretary said he “would not be surprised” if Hong Kong’s digital asset program were seen as an attempt to establish an alternative to American financial leadership.
TLDR:
- Ethereum rejected at $2.1K resistance after breaking support, confirming bearish structure remains intact
- Open interest declined 80M+ ETH across exchanges in 30 days, with Binance leading at 40M reduction
- Technical framework requires sustained reclaim of $2.1K-$2.15K range to shift bias back to bullish
- Derivatives market cleanup reduces leverage risk and may establish foundation for price stability
Ethereum continues to trade below critical support levels while derivatives markets show widespread deleveraging.
The asset sits at $1,958.53 as of this writing after failing to hold the $2.1k threshold. Meanwhile, open interest across major exchanges has contracted by more than 80 million ETH over the past month.
This dual pressure from spot price weakness and futures market retreat signals a period of market recalibration.
Technical Breakdown Points to Further Downside Risk
Ethereum’s price structure has followed a textbook pattern of support failure and failed reclaim attempts. The rising trendline near $2.8k marked the initial breakpoint in this sequence. Once that level gave way, the asset moved swiftly toward $2.1k support.
Market participants initially viewed the $2.1k zone as a potential floor for consolidation. However, that expectation proved premature as the level failed to contain selling pressure.
The subsequent drop carried ETH down to $1.7k before any meaningful bounce materialized.
Analyst Dami-Defi noted on X that the asset “bounced just enough to suck in hope” before retesting the broken $2.1k support.
That retest resulted in a clear rejection, confirming the zone had flipped from support to resistance. This behavior typically indicates continued weakness rather than bullish recovery.
The current technical framework suggests limited upside potential while ETH trades below $2.1k. A sustained reclaim of the $2.1k-$2.15k range would be required to shift the bias.
Until such a development occurs, counter-trend rallies represent selling opportunities rather than the start of new uptrends.
Futures Market Contraction Reflects Cautious Positioning
Cryptoquant analyst Arab Chain reported that derivatives markets have undergone substantial position reduction across multiple platforms.
Binance recorded the largest decline with approximately 40 million ETH in open interest exiting over 30 days. Gate.io followed with more than 20 million ETH in reduced exposure.
Additional platforms showed similar trends with OKX declining by 6.8 million ETH and Bybit by 8.5 million ETH. These four venues alone account for roughly 75 million ETH in reduced open interest.
Source: Cryptoquant
When smaller exchanges are included, the total contraction exceeds 80 million ETH across the ecosystem.
This pattern indicates traders are closing positions rather than establishing new leveraged bets. The move reflects either profit-taking after extended positioning or risk reduction in response to volatile conditions.
High-leverage participants appear particularly active in unwinding exposure during this phase.
The derivatives market reset may ultimately create healthier conditions for future price discovery. Reduced leverage decreases the risk of cascading liquidations that amplify volatility.
This cleanup process often precedes periods of greater stability and can establish a firmer foundation for subsequent moves.
TLDR:
- BlackRock increased BitMine holdings to 9,049,912 shares, up 165.6% from last quarter
- The total position is valued at roughly $246 million according to the latest 13F filing
- BitMine controls about 4.3 million ETH, or nearly 3.5% of Ethereum’s circulating supply
- Institutional investors continue adding exposure through crypto-linked public equities
BlackRock increased its ownership in BitMine Immersion Technologies during the latest reporting period. A new regulatory filing shows the asset manager raised its stake to 9,049,912 shares, marking a 165.6% quarterly jump and valuing the position at roughly $246 million.
Institutional Allocation Grows
The updated position appeared in BlackRock’s most recent 13F disclosure filed with U.S. regulators. These filings list equity holdings managed across the firm’s broad investment portfolios.
The document shows a sharp rise from the prior quarter’s reported share count.The latest total now exceeds nine million shares of BitMine common stock.
The company trades publicly under the ticker BMNR. It operates immersion-based mining facilities and manages digital assets on its balance sheet.
Shortly after the filing surfaced, crypto-focused accounts shared the figures on social media. One widely circulated post noted that BlackRock had loaded up on BitMine shares.
The message cited the same increase and valuation metrics from the official filing. It framed the purchase as another move by institutions toward crypto-related equities.
BlackRock oversees trillions of dollars across global markets and sectors. Movements of this scale often draw attention from traders and analysts.
Ethereum Treasury Strategy
BitMine’s business model combines mining infrastructure with long-term cryptocurrency holdings. Its treasury includes approximately 4.3 million ETH accumulated through operations and reserves.
That amount represents around 3.5% of Ethereum’s circulating supply. The figure places the company among the larger known corporate holders of the asset.
Holding such reserves ties company performance closely to digital asset prices. Changes in Ethereum’s value can influence both revenue expectations and balance sheet strength.
BlackRock’s expanded position increases institutional exposure to that structure. It links traditional capital management with companies directly tied to blockchain assets.
Quarterly disclosures offer measurable data for tracking these allocations. They provide concrete numbers rather than market rumors or short-term speculation.
The latest filing presents a clear snapshot of BlackRock’s current commitment. With over nine million shares, BitMine becomes a larger piece of its public equity holdings.
The increase arrives as crypto-focused strategies continue attracting institutional capital. Public filings now serve as a key source for monitoring that steady accumulation.
BlackRock made its first formal move into decentralized finance this week, listing its tokenized Treasury fund on Uniswap, with Bitcoin and Ether staging only modest rebounds amid heavy ETF outflows.
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) each rose about 2.5% during the past week but were unable to cross key psychological levels due to mixed exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows and crypto investor sentiment sinking to record lows.
Bitcoin ETFs started the week with two consecutive days of inflows, but they quickly reversed with $276 million in outflows on Wednesday and $410 million on Thursday.
Ether ETFs saw similar flows, with two modest days of inflows, followed by $129 million in outflows on Wednesday and $113 million on Thursday, according to Farside Investors data.
In a silver lining to the correction, Bitcoin’s sharp drawdown to $59,930 may have marked a critical “halfway point” in the current bear market, as markets are now sitting at a critical inflection point that will determine the relevance of the four-year cycle theory, according to Kaiko Research.
Despite sliding crypto valuations, large institutions continue exploring cryptocurrency adoption, including the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, which announced its first foray into decentralized finance (DeFi) on Wednesday.
BlackRock enters DeFi, taps Uniswap for institutional token trading
Asset management giant BlackRock is making its first formal move into decentralized finance by bringing its tokenized US Treasury fund to Uniswap, marking a milestone moment for institutional adoption of DeFi.
According to a Wednesday announcement, BlackRock’s USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL) will be listed on the Uniswap decentralized exchange, allowing institutional investors to buy and sell the tokenized security.
As part of the arrangement, BlackRock is also purchasing an undisclosed amount of Uniswap’s native governance token, UNI, the announcement said.
The collaboration is being facilitated by tokenization company Securitize, which partnered with the world’s biggest asset manager on the launch of BUIDL.
According to Fortune, trading will initially be limited to a select group of eligible institutional investors and market makers before expanding more broadly.
“For the first time, institutions and whitelisted investors can access technology from a leader in the decentralized finance space to trade tokenized real-world assets like BUIDL with self-custody,” said Securitize CEO Carlos Domingo.
BUIDL is the biggest tokenized money market fund, with more than $2.18 billion in total assets, according to data compiled by RWA.xyz. The fund is issued across multiple blockchains, including Ethereum, Solana, BNB Chain, Aptos and Avalanche.
In December, BUIDL reached a key milestone, surpassing $100 million in cumulative distributions from its Treasury holdings.
Trump family’s WLFI plans FX and remittance platform: Report
World Liberty Financial (WLFI), a decentralized finance (DeFi) platform backed by the family of US President Donald Trump, announced on Thursday that it will launch foreign currency exchange (FX) and remittance services for its users.
The planned foreign exchange and remittance platform, called World Swap, seeks to challenge traditional remittance and FX service providers with lower fees and a simplified user interface, according to Reuters.
Daily global FX trading volume surpassed $9.6 trillion in April 2025, according to a report from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), and the personal remittances market topped $892 billion in annual volume in 2024, according to data from the World Bank.
No exact timeline was given for the rollout. Cointelegraph reached out to World Liberty Financial but did not receive a response by the time of publication.
The expansion into FX and remittances follows WLFI’s application for a national trust bank charter in January and the launch of World Liberty Markets, a lending platform, as WLFI continues to grow while attracting scrutiny from Democratic lawmakers in the US.
Uniswap scores early win as US judge dismisses Bancor patent suit
A New York federal judge dismissed a patent infringement lawsuit brought by Bancor-affiliated entities against Uniswap, ruling that the asserted patents claim abstract ideas and are not eligible for protection under US patent law.
In a memorandum opinion and order on Tuesday, Judge John G. Koeltl of the US District Court for the Southern District of New York granted the defendant’s motion to dismiss the complaint filed by Bprotocol Foundation and LocalCoin Ltd. against Universal Navigation Inc. and the Uniswap Foundation.
The court found that the patents are directed to the abstract idea of calculating crypto exchange rates and therefore fail the two-step test for patent eligibility established by the US Supreme Court.
The ruling marks a procedural win for Uniswap, but it is not final. The case was dismissed without prejudice, giving the plaintiffs 21 days to file an amended complaint. If no amended complaint is filed, the dismissal will convert to one with prejudice.
Shortly after the ruling, Uniswap founder Hayden Adams wrote on X, “A lawyer just told me we won.”
“Uniswap Labs has always been proud to build in public — it’s a core value of DeFi,” a Uniswap Labs spokesperson told Cointelegraph. “We’re pleased that the court recognized that this lawsuit was meritless.”
Cointelegraph reached out to representatives of Bprotocol Foundation for comment but had not received a response by publication.
Binance completes $1 billion Bitcoin conversion for SAFU emergency fund
Binance completed the $1 billion Bitcoin conversion for its emergency fund, committing to holding Bitcoin as its core reserve asset.
Binance purchased another $304 million worth of Bitcoin (BTC) on Thursday, completing the conversion of $1 billion in Bitcoin for its Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU) wallet, according to Arkham data.
The fund now holds 15,000 Bitcoin, worth over $1 billion, acquired at an average aggregate cost basis of $67,000 per coin, Binance said in a Thursday X post.
“With SAFU Fund now fully in Bitcoin, we reinforce our belief in BTC as the premier long-term reserve asset.”
The last tranche of BTC came three days after Binance’s previous $300 million acquisition on Monday.
The exchange first announced it would convert its $1 billion user protection fund into Bitcoin on Jan. 30, initially pledging a 30-day window for the acquisitions, which were completed in less than two weeks.
The exchange said it would rebalance the fund if volatility pushes its value below $800 million.
Vitalik draws line between “real DeFi” and centralized yield stablecoins
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin drew a clear boundary around what he considers “real” decentralized finance (DeFi), pushing back against yield-driven stablecoin strategies that he says fail to meaningfully transform risk.
In a discussion on X, Buterin said that DeFi derives its value from changing how risk is allocated and managed, not simply from generating yield on centralized assets.
Buterin’s comments come amid renewed scrutiny over DeFi’s dominant use cases, particularly in lending markets built around fiat-backed stablecoins like USDC (USDC).
While he did not name specific protocols, Buterin took aim at what he described as “USDC yield” products, saying they depend heavily on centralized issuers while offering little reduction in issuer or counterparty risk.
DeFi market overview
According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, most of the 100 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization ended the week in the green.
The Pippin (PIPPIN) token rose 195% as the week’s biggest gainer in the top 100, followed by the Humanity Protocol (H) token, up 57% during the past week.
Thanks for reading our summary of this week’s most impactful DeFi developments. Join us next Friday for more stories, insights and education regarding this dynamically advancing space.
Ether (ETH) traded back above $2,000 on Friday, and its gains extended after the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) print came in cooler than expected.
The recovery put ETH/USD on track for its first bullish weekly candle close since mid-January, fueling speculation for a rally toward $2,500.
Key takeaways:
-
Ether futures’ open interest fell by 80 million ETH in 30 days, and funding rates hit three-year lows, indicating a weakening bearish trend.
-
ETH price has established strong support around $2,000, a level that must hold to secure the recovery.
Ether open interest falls by 80 million ETH
CryptoQuant data shows Ether futures open interest (OI) across all major exchanges has dropped by over 80 million ETH in the past 30 days.
Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, recorded the largest decline of about 40 million ETH (50%) over the last 30 days.
Related: ETH ETF holders in ‘worse position’ than BTC ETF peers as crypto market looks for bottom
Ether’s OI on Gate exchange fell by more than 20 million ETH (25%), while Bybit and OKX saw declines of 8.5 million ETH and 6.8 million ETH, respectively. Cumulatively, the four major platforms saw a total decline of about 75 million ETH, while other platforms accounted for the remaining five million ETH, confirming that the phenomenon is widespread and not limited to a single exchange.
This suggests that leverage traders are “reducing their exposure rather than opening new positions,” CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain said in a Quicktake analysis.
This significant drop in OI amid dropping prices can be “viewed as a clean-up of weaker positions, thereby reducing the likelihood of sharp forced liquidations later on,” the analyst said, adding:
“This environment may pave the way for a period of relative stability or the formation of a more solid price base for Ethereum in the near future.”
Ether futures funding rates on Binance have plunged deep into negative territory at -0.006, marking the lowest value recorded since early December 2022.
“It indicates that the bearish sentiment has reached an extreme peak not seen in the last three years,” CryptoQuant contributor CryptoOnchain said in a Thursday Quicktake analysis.
Historically, extreme negative funding rates at major price support levels often precede a short squeeze.
“When the crowd is this convinced that prices will fall further, the market tends to move in the opposite direction to liquidate late bears,” the analyst said, adding:
“Current data suggests we may be witnessing a classic capitulation event, mirroring the bottom formation of late 2022, potentially setting the stage for a sharp recovery.”
As Cointelegraph reported, Ether’s surging network activity and rising institutional investor inflows are significant tailwinds for any short-term ETH price gains.
ETH price technicals: Bulls must keep Ether above $2,000
The ETH/USD pair broke out of a falling wedge on the four-hour chart, to trade at $2,050 at the time of writing.
The measured target of the falling wedge, calculated by adding the wedge’s maximum height to the breakout point at $1,950, is $2,150.
Higher than that, the price may rise to retest the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at $2,260 and later toward $2,500.
On the downside, a key area to hold is the $2,000 psychological level, embraced by the 50-period SMA, as shown in the chart below.
The Glassnode cost basis distribution heatmap reveals a significant support area recently established between $1,880 and $1,900, where investors acquired approximately 1.3 million ETH.
As Cointelegraph reported, Ether accumulation addresses witnessed a surge in daily inflows as ETH dropped below $2,000 last week, signalling strong investor confidence in its long-term potential.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
TLDR:
- Tokenized gold market cap surpasses $6B, adding $2B year-to-date growth.
- Over 1.2 million ounces of physical gold are now back on-chain tokens.
- XAUT and PAXG control nearly 96.7% of the total sector market share.
- Rising gold prices near $5,000 are driving demand for tokenized assets.
The tokenized gold market has crossed $6 billion in total market value this year. The sector added nearly $2 billion year-to-date as gold prices approached $5,000 per ounce.
More than 1.2 million ounces of physical gold are now back on-chain tokens.
Market Expansion Tracks Rising Gold Prices
Posts shared by Coin Bureau on X reported that tokenized gold recently crossed the $6 billion mark. The update noted that the sector added roughly $2 billion in 2026 alone. Growth has accelerated as bullion prices climbed toward $5,000 per ounce.
Investors have increasingly turned to tokenized real-world assets for exposure to commodities. Gold-backed tokens allow users to hold allocated bullion through blockchain networks. As prices advanced, demand for digital representations of gold also strengthened.
Data shared in the posts showed that more than 1.2 million ounces of physical gold are locked to back these tokens.
Each token reflects ownership of a portion of stored gold reserves. Holders can therefore gain gold exposure without managing physical storage.
Tokenized gold trades continuously across supported platforms. This structure enables transfers at any time, unlike traditional bullion markets with fixed trading hours. As a result, market access has expanded to a broader base of participants.
XAUT and PAXG Maintain Strong Market Control
The market remains highly concentrated between two issuers. Tether Gold (XAUT) and Paxos Gold (PAXG) account for approximately 96.7% of the total market share. Other tokenized gold products represent only a small fraction of the supply.
XAUT is backed by gold stored in Swiss vaults. PAXG, in comparison, is supported by allocated gold audited monthly in London. Both tokens are designed to track the price of physical bullion closely.
Supporters cite around-the-clock trading and compatibility with decentralized finance platforms as key features. Tokenized gold can integrate with wallets and blockchain applications. This structure allows users to transfer or utilize gold-backed assets efficiently.
At the same time, the sector’s heavy reliance on two issuers remains clear. Concentration levels leave limited diversification within the tokenized gold market. Even so, the asset class continues to expand as gold prices remain elevated.
With bullion near historic levels and blockchain adoption growing steadily, tokenized gold maintains strong alignment between physical reserves and digital markets.
XRP price could rally 100% if BlackRock files for an XRP ETF, as analysts flag a shift in institutional allocations beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum into alternative assets.
Summary
- Analyst Zach Rector argues that today’s market differs from prior cycles as institutions diversify beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, with early inflows into XRP-priced products seen as a sign of shifting allocations.
- Rector says a formal BlackRock XRP ETF filing would be a structural catalyst, potentially doubling XRP by expanding regulated access, liquidity, and portfolio integration for large investors.
- He notes that short-term pullbacks remain likely, but views current conditions as longer-term accumulation territory ahead of possible regulatory clarity, new products, and broader altcoin rotation.
A cryptocurrency analyst has projected that XRP (XRP) price could rally 100% if BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, files for an XRP exchange-traded fund, according to statements reported by Finbold.
Zach Rector, a crypto market commentator who has followed digital asset markets for several years, stated that the current institutional environment represents a departure from previous market cycles. Rector cited growing diversification in institutional cryptocurrency allocations as evidence of changing investment patterns.
Recent fund flow data indicates selective outflows from certain Bitcoin and Ethereum investment products, while alternative cryptocurrency vehicles, including XRP-linked instruments, have begun attracting capital inflows. Market analysts have characterized this activity as potential evidence that institutional investors may be expanding exposure beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.
Rector stated that a formal ETF filing from BlackRock would constitute a structural shift in institutional access to XRP exposure. “And we’ll see XRP double when that happens,” Rector said, according to the report.
An ETF backed by BlackRock could expand institutional access to XRP, improve market liquidity, and strengthen the cryptocurrency’s positioning within traditional investment portfolios, according to market observers. Major ETF product launches have historically served as catalysts in cryptocurrency markets, particularly when associated with globally recognized asset management firms.
Rector noted that short-term price pullbacks remain possible as the broader cryptocurrency market moves toward stabilization. The analyst emphasized that longer-term positioning appears increasingly focused on accumulation ahead of potential institutional catalysts.
Regulatory clarity, new financial product launches, and sustained capital rotation into alternative digital assets could determine whether XRP becomes a primary beneficiary of institutional allocation trends, according to market analysts.
The leading prediction market is leaning into rumors of a future $POLY token airdrop.
Decentralized prediction market Polymarket is catering to its high-risk audience by introducing 5-minute crypto markets and teasing an airdrop for power users.
The new 5-minute markets allow users to bet on whether or not BTC’s 5-minute candles will close up or down, while providing market maker rebates to liquidity providers.
Following the launch, Polymarket’s “senior intern” and developer, Mustafa Aljatery, responded to one of the platform’s power users in a post saying “1m markets and $POLY next.”
This is not Aljatery’s first time leaning into token and Layer 2 speculation; however, the prediction market began the month by filing a trademark for the $POLY ticker, and Polymarket’s growth lead, William Legate, seemingly confirmed the airdrop after responding “no” to a user who wondered if the platform’s snapshot was already taken.
The speculation comes as Polymarket’s volumes continue to surge to new all-time highs, with almost $3.4 billion traded in January alone.
It took more than three years for Polymarket to reach $3.4 billion in volume; now it is clearing that in a single month. So far, $4.9 billion of volume has been traded on Polymarket in 2026.
Despite all the rumors surrounding a potential token and Layer 2 launch, Polymarket has yet to publicly disclose any information about its future structure and whether investors will receive tokens or equity.
The platform’s most recent funding round valued Polymarket at $9 billion, with a $2 billion investment led by Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the owner of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
Cryptocurrency markets have undergone structural changes that may prevent most alternative digital assets from reaching their previous all-time highs.
Summary
- Most altcoins are unlikely to reach previous all-time highs due to liquidity issues and capital being concentrated in large-cap assets.
- The current market may be undergoing a mid-cycle reset, with most of the price decline already completed, followed by about 200 days of sideways consolidation before price expansion resumes.
- Traditional four-year cycle models may no longer apply, with the market showing faster declines and a potential earlier recovery than anticipated by the consensus view of a prolonged bear market.
Institutional capital has fundamentally altered market dynamics that previously characterized retail-driven cycles tied to Bitcoin halving events.
In 2018, approximately 1,000 cryptocurrencies traded in markets that exhibited more predictable patterns, according to the analyst. Traders typically rotated between altcoin-to-Bitcoin pairs and exited positions following post-halving bull runs. Market behavior through 2021 remained largely retail-led, with halving events carrying significant psychological influence and price patterns repeating with consistency.
That framework has since changed, according to market analyst Inmortal. Institutional investors have directed billions of dollars primarily toward Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana, along with select large-cap assets. Thousands of new tokens launched in 2025 alone, dispersing available capital across a broader range of assets.
The analyst stated that retail investors anticipated institutional capital inflows would benefit the broader market. Instead, large institutional players concentrated holdings in major assets while retail capital pursued short-term investment narratives. As liquidity is distributed across numerous tokens, potential gains for most altcoins diminished.
Under these conditions, 99% of altcoins may never return to prior all-time highs, according to the analyst’s projection. The four-year cycle models that previously guided market participants may no longer function as reliable indicators.
What happened?
The crypto market is experiencing a shift that could leave most altcoins permanently below their previous all-time highs. With liquidity spread across thousands of tokens, the chances of altcoins recovering are slim. The traditional four-year cycle models, which once guided market predictions, may no longer hold up as reliable indicators.
In the past, these cycle models worked because they were based on factors like Bitcoin halvings and limited market awareness, which made the cycles easier to predict. However, as these patterns became widely recognized, their predictive value diminished. A 2022 projection had anticipated a cycle peak around late 2025, and this was largely aligned with the market high seen in October 2025. But the current market structure is showing signs of deviation from previous cycles.
Unlike the 2018-2021 cycle, where the market saw a sharp 75% price decline followed by over a year of sideways movement, today’s decline is happening much faster. Despite this, long-term support levels, such as the 200-week moving average, have remained intact, suggesting that the market is more resilient than a typical cycle-end scenario would imply.
Instead of expecting a prolonged downturn followed by 600 days of sideways movement, the analyst believes the market may already have completed 80-90% of the expected price decline. After that, about 200 days of consolidation may occur before price expansion resumes. This suggests a mid-cycle reset, challenging the consensus view that a traditional bear market and significant losses are still on the horizon.
If this scenario plays out, the market could see an earlier-than-expected recovery, as the price compression will likely resolve more quickly than many anticipate. However, for altcoins, the outlook remains bleak, with most failing to reach their previous highs due to the concentration of capital in larger assets. Until the market decisively breaks through current support levels, the downtrend is expected to persist within a broader expansion phase.
After a fall from grace last year, Mantra is seemingly attempting a comeback with a rebrand.
Less than a year after Mantra’s OM token inexplicably plummeted 90% in minutes, the real-world asset (RWA) protocol is rebranding to a new token, and OM is up 33% today after MEXC announced its support for the token swap.
OM’s market capitalization jumped from $55 million to $72 million after the crypto exchange said it would support the upcoming migration from OM to MANTRA. MEXC will accept deposits of OM, which will be swapped 1:4 to MANTRA.
Despite rallying 33%, OM is still down 99% from its all-time high of $8.5 in February 2025 and currently trades at $0.06.
The rebranding comes just one month after Mantra announced staff cuts amidst a company restructuring.
While it remains to be seen whether this restructuring and token migration will help restore Mantra’s tarnished image, other protocols that have taken the token migration route have not fared well.
The most notable examples include Polygon’s migration from MATIC to POL, and Fantom’s migration and pivot from FTM to Sonic and its S token.
MATIC reached an all-time high fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $29.2 billion in December 2021, and POL now trades at a $1 billion FDV. FTM also reached its previous all-time high in December 2021, achieving an $11 billion FDV, but S now trades at just $171 million.
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