Bitcoin has paused near recent highs, trading south of $69,000 as markets digest a period of consolidation after a volatile move that saw a dip to $60,000 followed by a rally to $72,000. Analysts note that price indicators have shifted into what some describe as a deep-value zone, prompting renewed debate about whether buyers will step in at these levels. Behind the scenes, researchers rely on two long-running metrics—realized price bands and a power-law quantile framework—that together frame the asset’s potential next leg. Taken together, these measures point to a broad, data-driven picture of accumulation forming at multiple support bands.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin’s realized price bands align with a long-term accumulation zone that has preceded major price advances in prior cycles.
• The shifted realized price sits near $42,000 while the current realized price hovers around $55,000, signaling a structural support window roughly between $40,000 and $55,000 with potential upside if the pattern repeats.
• The power-law quantile model places BTC near the 14th percentile of its long-term log–log price corridor, suggesting a period of relative undervaluation after a cycle peak that could reach toward $210,000 in 2025 per the model.
• History shows rallies often follow a re-test of these bands, implying meaningful upside potential—roughly 170%–220%—in the next bullish phase and targets above $150,000.
• Consolidation after testing these zones has typically stretched six to eight months before the market resumes its upward trajectory toward new highs.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC

Sentiment: Neutral

Market context: The current price dynamics unfold within a broader crypto environment where on-chain signals and valuation models increasingly inform timing. As liquidity ebbs and flows, accumulation zones identified by realized price bands and corroborated by long-term percentile analyses offer a framework for understanding potential inflection points, even as near-term moves remain uncertain.

Why it matters

For long-term holders and traders alike, the convergence of realized price bands with a low percentile reading from the power-law framework adds nuance to market timing. The near-term picture depicts a tug-of-war between downside risk—as implied by lower-bound scenarios in the $40k–$50k range—and the prospect of a broader upcycle should accumulation hold and demand re-emerge. This dynamic matters because it shapes risk budgeting and entry points during periods of sector-wide caution.

Beyond price, the implications ripple through market infrastructure and product design. If these bands function as gravity wells, participants in mining, staking, and decentralized finance may recalibrate risk models and deployment schedules in anticipation of a sustained rebound. The research also underscores the value of on-chain metrics that anchor sentiment, especially when macro conditions remain uncertain and with the possibility of regime shifts in liquidity and risk appetite.

Analysts emphasize that the synthesis of historical patterns with current readings still requires prudence. While the path to new highs has historically followed a phase of accumulation, each cycle contains unique catalysts and macro-tempo changes that can alter outcomes. The narrative around realized price bands and percentile positioning should therefore be viewed as one tool among many in assessing future trajectories, rather than as a guaranteed roadmap.

What to watch next

• Watch for Bitcoin price testing and holding the $55,000 area as a critical inflection point over the next several weeks.
• Monitor how often the price re-tests the realized price bands; a sustained move above the mid-$50ks would bolster the case for continued accumulation.
• Pay attention to the alignment with the power-law percentile, particularly if readings settle within the $50,000–$62,000 corridor, described as a long-term support floor in prior cycles.
• Observe any shifts in the BTC/Gold ratio or related macro indicators that could signal a risk-off or risk-on tilt, which would influence the timing of any durable bottom and subsequent rally.

Sources & verification

• On-chain realized price and shifted realized price concepts used to identify long-term accumulation zones and their historical relevance.
• The visual mapping of monthly price zones based on realized price bands, with sources cited to TradingView.
• The power-law quantile model’s positioning of BTC around the 14th percentile and its implied target near $210,000 in 2025, as discussed by the model’s proponents.
• Related discussion referencing large BTC holders and macro conditions as part of the broader context of market bottoms and pullbacks.

Market reaction and key details

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has cooled after a volatile stretch, trading just below the $69,000 mark as market participants digest the move from a dip to $60,000 and a subsequent push back toward the $70,000 level. The retreat comes as analysts revisit two on-chain gauges that have historically framed long-run value zones. Realized price, which tracks the average cost basis of BTC the last time it moved on-chain, and its shifted counterpart, which smooths this signal forward in time, are currently signaling a broad accumulation range. In practical terms, this means that the market is tracking a price floor around the mid-$40,000s to mid-$50,000s, with the potential for outsized upside if history repeats itself and buyers re-enter the market en masse.

The current readings place realized price near $55,000 and the shifted realized price around $42,000, reinforcing the idea that a robust support base is forming amid a broader pattern of value-driven accumulation. A chart illustrating these zones, which connects monthly price action to realized-price bands, is available via the linked visualization (Cointelegraph/TradingView) and provides a historical lens on how retests of these bands have historically preceded meaningful rallies. For readers curious about the visual, the chart references BTCUSDT on TradingView.

Beyond the realized-price framework, another analytic approach gaining attention is a power-law quantile model popularized by BTC researcher Giovanni Santostasi. The latest update places BTC near the 14th percentile of a long-term log–log price corridor, suggesting a phase of relative undervaluation after a cycle peak that the model projected could reach as high as $210,000 in 2025. This confluence—price trading near realized bands and a low percentile reading on the long-term corridor—has historically coincided with recoveries, even as the structure permits the possibility of further drawdowns in the near term. The model’s $210,000 target underscores the scale of potential upside that such a framework envisions, even as the timing remains uncertain.

The discourse is not without caution. Observers such as Jelle (CryptoJelleNL) have pointed to periods where the BTC price has fallen around 31% from a prior RSI-based breakout, warning that a retracement toward the $52,000s could occur before a durable bottom takes hold. Another analyst, Sherlock, has flagged a breakdown in the BTC/Gold ratio below recent support, a condition that has previously coincided with transitions into bearish phases. In light of these signals, some analysts argue that a deeper retest—potentially into the $38,000–$40,000 region—remains plausible if historical patterns repeat. Still, the broader narrative remains that a test of the realized bands could, if met with a sustained bid, propel BTC into the next leg of its cycle.

As markets weigh these views, traders will be watching for alignment between on-chain signals and price action. The convergence of the realized-price framework with percentile positioning offers a structured lens through which to assess risk and potential catalysts, even as external factors continue to influence risk sentiment across the crypto space. The discussion around Bitcoin’s long-term value, and how that value translates into price, remains highly dependent on a delicate balance of on-chain activity, macro conditions, and investor appetite for risk.

Related: Bitcoin holders sell 245K BTC in tight macro conditions: Did the market bottom?

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Kaito and Polymarket have launched ‘Attention Markets’, an initiative that combines Kaito’s attention measurement technology with Polymarket’s prediction market infrastructure.

These markets aim to capture the dynamics of cultural narratives and emerging trends. Prediction market trading volumes have experienced a remarkable surge, growing 850% year-over-year and reaching $6.2 billion in weekly volume as of January 2026. This growth underscores the increasing relevance and influence of prediction markets in capturing collective beliefs and trends.

“As information becomes abundant, attention becomes the scarce resource. Attention Markets represent a new category within prediction markets—one that captures the dynamics of what people are paying attention to, how narratives form, and where relevance is moving next,” said Yu Hu, founder & CEO of Kaito.

A Polymarket spokesperson further elaborated on the partnership: “Polymarket has always been about turning collective beliefs into market signals. Partnering with Kaito allows us to apply that same market logic to attention itself, unlocking new ways for markets to reflect culture, trends, and shifts in public focus.”

Attention Markets will span various verticals, including AI, finance, and entertainment, and be offered on both the Polymarket and Kaito platforms.

This article was generated with the assistance of AI workflows.

Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.

Grab a coffee—big moves are happening on the US coasts. From luxury mansions in Miami to shifts in billionaire residency, wealth is on the move, amid new patterns in finance, real estate, and crypto.

Crypto News of the Day: Florida Emerges as a Tax Haven for Tech and Crypto Wealth

California’s tech and crypto elites are increasingly eyeing Florida as a tax-friendly alternative. Grant Cardone’s recent X (Twitter) post advertising a 10,000 sq. ft., 7-bedroom Miami mansion for 700 BTC highlights the growing intersection of Bitcoin wealth and high-end real estate.

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The listing coincides with a surge in relocations by high-net-worth individuals from California. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg and his wife, Priscilla Chan, are the latest California billionaires moving to South Florida.

Reportedly, they are purchasing a newly completed waterfront mansion in Miami’s Indian Creek neighborhood. Based on reports, the gated community is home to other high-profile figures, including Jeff Bezos, Tom Brady, and Jared Kushner/Ivanka Trump.

The seller is reportedly a limited liability company tied to Jersey Mike’s Subs founder Peter Cancro. While the deal has not been publicly confirmed as closed, WSJ, citing neighbors, estimates that Zuckerberg plans to move in by April 2026.

California Tax Fallout

The relocations come amid a proposed California billionaire tax that has sparked concern among the state’s wealthiest residents.

According to Chamath Palihapitiya, a Canadian-American VC and SPAC pioneer, California’s total taxable wealth from billionaires has fallen from over $2 trillion to under $1 trillion following announcements of high-profile departures.

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Palihapitiya criticized the state’s handling of the proposed tax, arguing that the middle class will bear the fiscal burden left behind by relocating billionaires.

“These were all people who were paying 13%+ in state income tax every year with no complaints until a few weeks ago,” remarked Palihapitiya.

Against this backdrop, experts describe the billionaire tax initiative as having “backfired in the most spectacular fashion with ripple effects on local economies and corporate headquarters.

Brian Sullivan of CNBC noted that companies often follow CEOs, suggesting that Meta employees could also relocate to Florida, effectively benefiting from lower state income tax rates.

Local real estate agents report a significant uptick in demand for ultra-luxury properties. According to Danny Hertzberg, a Miami agent with Coldwell Banker Realty, interest in South Florida’s high-end market has intensified since the announcement of California’s billionaire tax.

“The 5% tax in California is really driving out people in a major way,” WSJ reported, citing Hertzberg.

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Crypto’s Role in Wealth Mobility

Beyond real estate, the situation mirrors broader trends in wealth mobility and in decentralized assets. Balaji Srinivasan, former CTO of Coinbase, has warned that California’s billionaire tax could disrupt venture capital incentives, potentially reducing Silicon Valley from “one to zero” over the next decade.

He frames crypto networks and internet-native protocols as politically resilient alternatives, able to operate globally and adapt to structural risk in ways traditional tech and finance cannot.

Srinivasan likens the current moment to an extinction event: while Silicon Valley’s centralized dominance may be fragile, decentralized networks like Bitcoin are structurally positioned to thrive in a shifting political and economic playing field.

“…the intended purpose of the California wealth seizure referendum is to rob or exile everyone in tech… The goal of the Democrats is to drive tech out of California, like they did the Republicans…cryptocurrency is built to resist wealth seizures, but Silicon Valley technology sure is not… As a natural-born US citizen, he [Zuckerberg] doesn’t have the same constraints that Thiel and Elon did,” Srinivasan explained.

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As Florida attracts both tech and crypto wealth, Grant Cardone’s 700 BTC mansion is emblematic of a wider trend. High-net-worth individuals are leveraging digital assets and favorable tax jurisdictions to preserve wealth, while California’s billionaire tax debate continues to reverberate across the US.

Chart of the Day

Byte-Sized Alpha

Here’s a summary of more US crypto news to follow today:

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading below $69,000 on Tuesday, confirming the view that price consolidation is the most likely course over the short term. The sell-off to $60,000 and the subsequent recovery to $72,000 resulted in many BTC price indicators falling into what analysts believe to be a deep value zone, but will buyers reach the same conclusion?

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin’s realized price bands have aligned with a long-term accumulation zone that preceded new BTC highs. 

• Power Law quantile models place BTC near the lower 15% of its long-term log-log price corridor, a zone that has consistently appeared after prior cycle peaks.

• Valuation and momentum metrics are clustering around the $40,000–$55,000 region, marking a statistically significant structural support area.

BTC realized price bands outline long-term DCA zones

Bitcoin’s realized price and shifted realized price have successfully identified long-term accumulation zones since 2015.

Realized price reflects the average cost basis of all BTC last moved onchain whereas the shifted realized price smoothens this metric forward in time, capturing deeper-value zones during stronger drawdowns.

Currently, Bitcoin’s realized price sits near $55,000, while the shifted realized price is around $42,000.

Multiple years of historical data show that rallies following the re-test of these zones delivered big gains, as shown in the chart above. While returns have diminished over time, the structure still implies upside potential of 170% to 220%, aligning with targets above $150,000 in the next bullish period.

Bitcoin has typically consolidated for six to eight months after testing the realized price bands before resuming an upward trend and hitting new highs.

Power law model signals relative undervaluation for BTC

Popularized by BTC researcher Giovanni Santostasi, the updated power law quantile model places BTC near the 14th percentile of its long-term log-log price corridor, suggesting temporary undervaluation following a cycle peak that fell short of the model’s projected $210,000 high in 2025.

Confluence between price trading near realized price bands and lower power law percentiles has preceded major recoveries.

The model’s fifth (0.05) percentile previously marked long-term cycle floors and now sits between $50,000 and $62,000, overlapping with the accumulation range defined by the realized price bands.

Related: Bitcoin holders sell 245K BTC in tight macro conditions: Did the market bottom?

Analysts say Bitcoin may sell off before the next big rally occurs

Bitcoin investor Jelle noted that BTC price is currently down roughly 31% from its first weekly RSI 37 break, a level that has preceded cycle bottoms since 2014.

The drawdowns ranged between 17% and 55%, with the recent cycles bottoming closer to 40–43%, implying potential downside toward $52,000 before a durable low forms.

Crypto analyst Sherlock highlighted a breakdown in the BTC/Gold (XAU) ratio below the 15–16 level, a signal that previously marked transitions into a bearish period.

Based on this framework, Sherlock warns BTC may still see a deeper retracement toward the $38,000 to $40,000 region if history repeats.

Related: Bitcoin price punishes traders as 24-hour crypto liquidations pass $250M