Crypto World
Ethereum Protocol Restructures Into Three Tracks to Drive Scaling and Security Goals in 2026
TLDR:
- Ethereum shipped Pectra and Fusaka in 2025, doubling blob throughput and enabling validator data sampling via PeerDAS.
- The new Scale track merges L1 and blob scaling efforts, targeting gas limits beyond 100M under unified leadership.
- The Improve UX track advances native account abstraction and cross-L2 interoperability as top priorities for 2026.
- The new Harden the L1 track addresses post-quantum security, censorship resistance, and network testing infrastructure.
Ethereum Protocol has announced a major structural shift heading into 2026. The Ethereum Foundation’s Protocol team has reorganized its work into three core tracks: Scale, Improve UX, and Harden the L1.
This follows a productive 2025 that saw two major network upgrades shipped. The restructuring reflects a more mature approach to developing Ethereum’s infrastructure. It also sets a clear roadmap for the year ahead, covering scaling, usability, and network security.
Ethereum Protocol Reflects on a Productive 2025
Ethereum Protocol shipped two major upgrades in 2025: Pectra in May and Fusaka in December. Pectra introduced EIP-7702, allowing externally owned accounts to temporarily execute smart contract code.
This enabled transaction batching, gas sponsorship, and social recovery for users. Pectra also doubled blob throughput and raised the max effective validator balance to 2,048 ETH.
Fusaka brought PeerDAS to mainnet, changing how validators handle blob data. Instead of downloading full blob data, validators now sample it, cutting bandwidth requirements.
This change enabled an 8x increase in theoretical blob capacity. Two additional Blob Parameter Only forks shipped alongside Fusaka to begin ramping up blobs per block.
Beyond the two forks, the mainnet gas limit rose from 30M to 60M during 2025. This marked the first meaningful gas limit increase since 2021.
History expiry also removed pre-Merge data from full nodes, saving hundreds of gigabytes of disk space. On the UX side, the Open Intents Framework reached production and cross-chain address standards moved forward.
These milestones made 2025 one of the most active years at the Ethereum protocol level. With those deliverables behind it, the team saw an opportunity to restructure.
The new track model moves away from milestone-driven initiatives. It instead organizes work around longer-term goals.
Three Tracks Now Guide Ethereum Protocol’s Direction
The Scale track merges what were previously two separate efforts: Scale L1 and Scale Blobs. Led by Ansgar Dietrichs, Marius van der Wijden, and Raúl Kripalani, it targets gas limits beyond 100M.
The track also covers ePBS, zkEVM attester client development, and statelessness research. Blob scaling and execution scaling are treated as one connected effort.
The Improve UX track, led by Barnabé Monnot and Matt Garnett, focuses on account abstraction and interoperability. EIP-7701 and EIP-8141 are pushing smart account logic directly into the protocol.
Work here also connects to post-quantum readiness, since native account abstraction offers a natural path away from ECDSA. Cross-L2 interactions and faster confirmations remain central priorities.
The Harden the L1 track is entirely new and is led by Fredrik Svantes, Parithosh Jayanthi, and Thomas Thiery. Fredrik leads the Trillion Dollar Security Initiative, covering post-quantum hardening and trustless RPCs.
Thomas focuses on censorship resistance research, including FOCIL (EIP-7805) and measurable resistance metrics. Parithosh oversees devnets, testnets, and client interoperability testing infrastructure.
Glamsterdam is the next planned network upgrade, targeting the first half of 2026. Hegotá is expected to follow later in the year.
Hedera has posted a muted recovery in recent sessions. HBAR price remains constrained by cautious sentiment across the broader cryptocurrency market. Uncertainty in Bitcoin and macro conditions continues to cap upside attempts.
However, bearish traders may need to monitor changing signals. Derivatives positioning and capital flow indicators suggest the current balance could shift.
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Hedera Traders Could Be In Trouble
HBAR is currently experiencing strong bearish positioning in the futures market. Traders have opened a notable number of short contracts, reflecting expectations of further downside. The liquidation map highlights that positions are skewed toward bears at current levels.
Data shows that HBAR bears could face approximately $4.9 million in liquidations if the price crosses the $0.1143 mark. Such forced liquidations can trigger rapid upside volatility. When short positions unwind, buying pressure increases as traders close contracts.
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The Chaikin Money Flow indicator offers additional insight into capital movement. CMF measures inflows and outflows to assess whether buyers or sellers dominate. The indicator is currently rising, although it remains at the zero line.
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An upward slope at zero suggests that outflows are at par with the inflows. However, the gap will likely diminish as inflows rise. Declining outflows often precede a shift toward net inflows. If this transition occurs, HBAR could gain the support needed for a short-term recovery.
Bitcoin Is Unhelpful
Correlation trends also support a potential shift. HBAR’s correlation with Bitcoin has declined in recent weeks. The current coefficient has dropped to 0.09, signaling weaker alignment with the crypto market leader, inching closer to completely dissociating with Bitcoin.
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Reduced correlation can benefit altcoins during periods of Bitcoin uncertainty. If HBAR decouples further, price action may reflect investor-specific demand rather than broader market weakness. This flexibility could allow HBAR to chart an independent recovery path.
HBAR Price Has a Few Barriers To Breach
HBAR is trading at $0.1019 at the time of writing. The altcoin remains above the key $0.0961 support level at the 38.2% Fib line. However, it faces resistance at $0.1035, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. This level currently caps upward momentum.
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Flipping $0.1035 into support would mark a short-term breakthrough. Combined with declining outflows, this shift could fuel a recovery rally. HBAR would then target $0.1109 at the 61.8% Fibonacci.
This level is considered a critical support for an asset, and flipping it would likely trigger stronger buying among the investors, pushing the HBAR price higher.
This would bring HBAR past $0.1143, a level that threatens $4.9 million in shorts liquidations. Sustained strength could extend gains toward $0.1215 and $0.1349 eventually, helping recover year-to-date losses.
If bullish signals fail to materialize, consolidation may continue. Persistent outflows would limit breakout attempts. A breakdown below $0.0961support could expose HBAR to further downside near $0.0870. Such a move would invalidate the near-term bullish outlook and reinforce bearish control.
Payward, the parent company of cryptocurrency exchange Kraken, has acquired tokenization platform Magna, expanding the company’s infrastructure.
Kraken said Wednesday the acquisition would allow Magna to operate “as a standalone platform, powered by” the crypto exchange. The company’s announcement said Kraken would use the platform for “onchain and offchain vesting, white-label token claims, custody and escrow workflows, specialized staking functionality” and other functions.
“Joining Kraken gives us the resources to support existing and new clients with institutional-grade infrastructure, deeper liquidity, and global distribution,” said Magna CEO Bruno Faviero.
According to Kraken, Magna serves more than 160 clients with a peak total value locked of $60 billion in 2025. The acquisition is the latest move by the exchange this month, following an integration with ICE Chat, and its move to sponsor “Trump Accounts” under an initiative pushed by US President Donald Trump.
Related: Kraken parent Payward revenues jump 33% as crypto traders pile in
Kraken submitted a confidential initial public offering filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission in November, signaling a potential IPO in the future. The company reported $2.2 billion in adjusted revenue for 2025.
In 2025, Payward acquired crypto native prop company Breakout, futures trading platform NinjaTrader, derivatives trading platform Small Exchange and software company Capitalise.
Other crypto companies mulling US IPOs in 2026
Crypto hardware wallet provider Ledger, headquartered in France, was reportedly discussing a potential public offering in the United States, with a valuation of $4 billion. Digital asset custodian Copper, based in London, was also reportedly considering a similar move into the US markets, while Securitize, a tokenization platform, reported in January that the company’s revenues were up over 840%, in an SEC filing ahead of plans to go public.
Magazine: IronClaw rivals OpenClaw, Olas launches bots for Polymarket — AI Eye
TLDR:
- SUI is trading near $0.95, sitting just below Weekly Hypertrend resistance positioned around the $1.00 level.
- The weekly RSI has entered oversold territory, with approximately 50% of the October 10 liquidation wick now filled.
- Past weekly oversold signals for SUI led to expansions of 503% in October 2023 and 837% in August 2024 respectively.
- The Genesis AVWAP near $2.00 defines long-term macro positioning, while reclaim and volume confirmation remain the key requirements.
SUI is drawing renewed attention from analysts as the asset trades near $0.95. The token sits just below a key Weekly Hypertrend level around $1.00.
Market observers note that the RSI has entered oversold territory on the weekly chart. Early momentum divergence signals are beginning to appear.
The broader macro structure remains upward sloping since genesis. Traders are now watching for confirmation before positioning.
Technical Levels Point to a Compressed Setup
SUI is currently trading just below the Weekly Hypertrend resistance near $1.00. This level has acted as a structural ceiling in recent price action.
The RSI entering oversold territory on the weekly timeframe adds weight to the current setup. Analysts are watching whether momentum divergence will develop into a confirmed reversal signal.
According to market commentary from eye zen hour, approximately 50% of the October 10 liquidation wick has now been filled. This kind of wick fill often reflects a controlled recovery in price structure.
On-balance volume, or OBV, remains a key indicator to monitor at this stage. A curl back above its moving average could support the case for trend continuation.
The Genesis AVWAP sits near the $2.00 level and continues to define long-term positioning for SUI. This anchored volume-weighted average price from genesis serves as a macro reference point.
Price remains well below that level, meaning there is room for expansion if structure confirms. Traders are treating the $2.00 area as a longer-term target, not an immediate one.
Eye zen hour noted in a recent post that the current phase is “setup phase, not breakout phase.” That framing keeps expectations grounded without dismissing the structure building beneath price.
Until a Weekly Hypertrend reclaim occurs with participation, the setup remains unconfirmed. This distinction is important for risk management at current levels.
Historical Oversold Signals Offer Raw Data for Context
SUI has produced weekly oversold readings before, and the outcomes were notable both times. The October 2023 oversold signal was followed by a price expansion of 503%.
The August 2024 signal led to an 837% move higher from the oversold condition. These figures are cited as raw historical data, not as forward projections.
Eye zen hour was clear in stating these are “not predictions, just raw data.” That framing separates observation from speculation, which matters in volatile markets.
Still, the historical context gives traders a framework for understanding how the asset has behaved. Pattern recognition remains one tool among many in technical analysis.
The macro structure for SUI since genesis continues to slope upward, according to the analysis. Momentum is currently stretched to the downside, and structure appears compressed.
These two conditions together often precede volatility expansion in either direction. Confirmation through reclaim and volume participation remains the key requirement before any directional bias is established.
- Dogecoin struggles below key moving averages, signaling weak short-term trend.
- A cup and handle pattern is forming, hinting at a potential breakout if the resistance breaks.
- Support lies near $0.08, with higher volume needed for a sustained upward move.
Dogecoin is hovering around the $0.10 mark after a shaky month that saw the price dip over 20%.
The popular meme coin has struggled to hold momentum, with trading volumes showing signs of weakness.
Even so, there are hints in the charts that a rebound could be forming.
Technical analysis
Looking at the moving averages, DOGE is currently below the 5-day, 10 and 20-day averages.
This typically signals that the short-term trend is weak.
Traders often watch for the price to climb above these averages as an early sign of bullish momentum.
Right now, resistance is in the $0.105–$0.107 range.
A break above this level would be an important signal for those hoping for a recovery. The MACD indicator is also showing mixed signals.
The MACD line has moved above the signal line despite both being in the negative, and the histogram has turned positive, suggesting that buyers are beginning to step in after a period of inactivity.
However, volume is still modest. A strong breakout would require significantly more trading activity than the roughly $33 million seen recently.
Support remains solid at around $0.08, which has already acted as a bounce point.
This level has prevented further sharp declines and could continue to anchor the price if bearish pressure returns.
Cup and handle pattern points to possible upside
On the daily chart, Dogecoin is forming a classic Cup and Handle pattern.
The Cup bottomed near $0.08 and then rallied toward $0.11.
The Handle is now forming near the top of the Cup, consolidating just below resistance.
This formation often precedes a breakout when the price moves above the Handle.
If Dogecoin can clear this resistance, it could push toward higher levels, reigniting optimism among traders.
Chart patterns like this are watched closely because they combine both support and momentum signals.
They show where traders are willing to buy and where sellers may step in.
In Dogecoin’s case, the pattern suggests that there is still potential for upside, but it won’t happen without stronger buying interest.
Volume and momentum will be key to confirming the breakout. Traders are likely waiting for both to pick up before committing heavily.
Even with these early bullish signs, caution is warranted.
The market has been volatile, and DOGE has lost significant value over the past year. Short-term gains are possible, but the overall trend remains fragile.
The selloff continues as tensions in the Middle East rise and the Department of Homeland Security remains partially shut down.
Crypto markets slipped further on Wednesday, Feb. 18, as political and macroeconomic uncertainty continued to weigh on sentiment.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $66,344, down 2.5% over the past 24 hours, while Ethereum (ETH) is at $1,953, down 2.3%. Separately, Founders Fund, a venture firm tied to billionaire Peter Thiel, disclosed it had exited its entire 7.5% stake in Ethereum treasury company ETHZilla Corp. last year, according to a recent SEC filing.
Other large-cap tokens were also lower, with BNB down 2% near $610, XRP down 3% to $1.44, and Solana (SOL) down 4.5% to $81.
Meanwhile, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization stood near $2.37 trillion, down 2% over the past 24 hours. Daily trading volume was around $88.5 billion, according to CoinGecko.
Among top gainers, World Liberty Financial (WLFI) rose 15.7%, following news of top Wall Street CEOs preparing to headline at the World Liberty Forum.
Cosmos Hub (ATOM) also climbed 6.2%, while Provenance Blockchain (HASH) rose about 5%. HASH’s rally comes shortly after Figure announced that pricing has officially closed for FGRD, the first public equity trading natively on the Provenance blockchain.
On the downside, pumpfun (PUMP) fell around 11%, MemeCore (M) dropped roughly 7%, and Bittensor (TAO) slipped about 6.3%.
Liquidations and ETF Flows
Around $192 million in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGlass. Long liquidations accounted for about $134.6 million, while shorts made up $57.4 million.
Bitcoin led liquidations at about $66.7 million, followed by Ethereum at roughly $53.7 million. More than 84,000 traders were liquidated during the period.
In the ETF market, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $104.87 million in net outflows, while Ethereum spot ETFs recorded $48.63 million in inflows. XRP spot ETF flows were flat on the day, while Solana spot ETFs recorded $2.19 million in inflows.
Elsewhere
In other markets, precious metals moved higher on the day, with gold trading around $5,000, up 2% and silver rising 4.3% to $77.49. Platinum gained 3.3% to $2,098, while palladium added nearly 2% to $1,742.
Political uncertainty also remained in focus as the White House did not give a clear timeline for talks with Iran amid rising tensions in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, negotiations between Ukraine and Russia concluded, with further discussions expected. In Washington, conflict over reopening the Department of Homeland Security, which is partially shut down, persists, CNN reported.
Peter Thiel, as of December 31, has fully divested from ETHZilla, his ether (ETH) gobbling company that’s currently down 98% from its 52-week high.
Those sales finalize losses for Thiel’s investment that exceeded $200 million at the company’s brief, exuberant peak in August.
On August 4 last year, ETHZilla (under its prior Nasdaq-listed name, 180 Life Sciences) closed a $425 million private investment in public equity (PIPE).
Separately, Thiel’s funds had also invested by August 4, 2025, disclosing aggregate beneficial ownership of 11,592,241 shares. Thiel’s quantity was then worth about $40 million or 7.52% of 180 Life Sciences’ 154,032,084 shares outstanding.
Although charts show an ETHZ trading range of $27.22-$35.70 on the day before Thiel’s investment, that price reflects a one-for-10 reverse share split that occurred in October.
In actual fact, Thiel’s 11.5 million beneficially-owned shares were trading at $2.72-$3.57 the day prior to his investment, imputing an investment of approximately $40 million based on their $3.54 closing print on August 1, 2025.
He disclosed his ownership the following trading day, as required by SEC regulations.
Within two weeks of his investment, his pre-split shares rocketed from $3.54 to $17.46 on August 13 after the former biotech company announced a host of crypto investors and an ETH acquisition strategy that was enjoying a brief mania in digital asset treasury (DAT) stocks.
Read more: Even Ethereum treasury companies are selling ETH to pay off debt
ETHZilla is down 98% from its August peak
Marked-to-market at the company’s August peak, Thiel and his funds owned over $200 million worth of stock.
Unfortunately, he hung on for months of losses.
Although Thiel trimmed his exposure from 7.5% to 5.6% by September 30, he continued to hold the vast majority of his shares — and their dwindling value.
He wouldn’t sell the entire position until the fourth quarter — after shares had lost over 85% of their August peak value.
By the time he’d sold everything, shares were down 86% from Thiel’s August 1 closing price and 97% from their August 13 peak.
As of today, shares are down 98% from their high.
Although Thiel isn’t required to disclose his average sale prices on SEC 13G schedules, approximating his losses is elementary math.
If Thiel beneficially owned approximately $40 million as of his opening investment, he certainly lost tens of millions of dollars by the time he sold.
From their fleeting value above $200 million, he let well over $100 million — probably more than $150 million — in paper value evaporate.
Losses from his starting investment size likely exceed $30 million from August 1 to the average trading range during the periods in which he was selling.
Note: Above figures about Thiel’s investments include all of the funds through which he invested in ETHZilla (formerly 180 Life Sciences):
- FF Consumer Growth, LLC
- FF Consumer Growth II, LP
- The Founders Fund Growth Management, LLC
- The Founders Fund Growth II Management, LP
- Peter Thiel
- FF Upper Tier GP, LLC
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Altcoins, excluding Ether (ETH), have recorded $209 billion in net selling volume since January 2025, marking one of the steepest declines in speculative demand for crypto assets this cycle.
On Binance, altcoin trading volumes dropped roughly 50% since November 2025, reflecting a steady dip in activity. The decrease also coincides with an increase in Bitcoin’s volume share on the exchange.
Analysts said that the contraction in altcoin demand, alongside elevated stablecoin dominance, signals that the broader market is shifting its capital toward BTC during the current downtrend.
Altcoin spot volume imbalance deepens against Bitcoin
Crypto analyst IT Tech noted that the cumulative buy and sell difference for altcoins, excluding BTC and Ether (ETH), reached -$209 billion. The metric measures net spot demand across centralized exchanges for altcoin trading pairs. A positive reading indicates rising spot demand, which was briefly observed back in January 2025.
A negative cumulative delta at this scale signals the absence of consistent spot buyers. The analyst noted that the metric tracks net flow imbalance rather than price valuation, so it does not indicate a market bottom. Over the past 13 months, capital has exited the altcoin markets without significant counterflows.
Volume data from Binance reinforces the shift. As BTC tested the $60,000 level in early February, the total trading volume was redistributed. On Feb. 7, Bitcoin volumes rose to 36.8% of total activity. Altcoin volumes dropped to 33.6% by mid-February, from a high of 59.2% in November.
According to crypto analyst Darkfost, similar rotations appeared in April 2025, August 2024, and October 2022. During these corrective phases, capital consolidated into Bitcoin while altcoin volumes contracted.
Related: New Bitcoin whales are trapped underwater, but for how long?
Tether dominance rises to its all-time high level
Tether’s USDt (USDT) market cap dominance reached the 8% level on the one-week chart, aligning with prior highs which lasted between June 2022 and October 2023. The rising stablecoin dominance typically coincides with capital moving into dollar-pegged assets rather than deploying into tokens like BTC (BTC) and Ether (ETH).
As observed, the elevated USDT dominance coincided with Bitcoin consolidating near bear market lows, as observed in 2022 and 2023. A decline in dominance has often marked one of the earliest signals of a renewed bullish trend.
Previously, the USDT dominance chart formed lows around 3.80-4% in March 2024, December 2024, and October 2025. These periods coincided with Bitcoin setting new all-time highs near $72,000, $104,000, and $126,000, respectively.
Related: Wells Fargo sees ‘YOLO’ trade driving $150B into Bitcoin and risk assets
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
After chopping around early Wednesday, bitcoin rolled over during the U.S. afternoon and slid to session lows under $66,000, putting pressure back on the lower end of its recent range.
Having traded $68,500 overnight, BTC was down 2.5% over the past 24 hours and last trading at $66,200.
Crypto stocks, which started the day on a stronger foot, followed suit, paring back their gains or snapping into declines across the board. Most notable was Coinbase (COIN), which turned its 3% morning advance into a 2% decline by the afternoon. Strategy (MSTR), he largest corporate holder of bitcoin, was down roughly 3% as the underlying asset weakened.
After a fast start to the session, U.S. stocks had given back much of their gains shortly before the close of trading. Not helping were surprisingly hawkish minutes from the January meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). As expected, most at the central bank agreed with the decision to pause rate cuts, but — in a twist — several suggested the Fed favor “two-sided” guidance at which the bank might opt to hike rates if inflation continues to remain sticky.
Already higher for the day, the U.S. dollar gathered even more strength, with the dollar index (DXY) — which measures the greenback against a basket of major foreign currencies — climbing to its strongest level in nearly two weeks. A firmer dollar often weighs on risk assets, and Wednesday’s crypto fade appeared to fit that pattern.
With today’s slide, bitcoin is now staring at a fifth straight week of losses, its worst streak since the long 2022 bear market.
It also faces a key test at current levels. The $66,000 area held as support last week and helped fuel a bounce above $70,000. If that floor gives way decisively, traders will likely start eyeing the early February lows at $60,000 or a fresh leg lower.
Crypto advocacy group Coin Center is lobbying the U.S. Senate to maintain a crucial clause in the upcoming market structure bill, according to a new blog post.
This provision protects software developers from liability if third parties misuse their open-source code for illicit activities.
The stakes are incredibly high for the industry. Removing these protections could freeze innovation by making coders legally responsible for how strangers use their tools. That is a risk few developers are willing to take.
Key Takeaways
- Liability Shield: Coin Center argues that developers who do not control assets should not be treated as money transmitters.
- Senate Standoff: The Senate Judiciary Committee is blocking the clause, citing enforcement concerns over platforms like Tornado Cash.
- Procedural Roadblock: The dispute has stalled the broader market structure bill, delaying regulatory clarity.
Why Is Coin Center Lobbying so Hard?
The Senate Banking Committee is currently deliberating a comprehensive digital asset market structure bill.
This legislation aims to define how the CFTC and SEC regulate the industry. Recently, Trump suggested a crypto market structure bill could arrive soon, ramping up the urgency.
However, a specific clause protecting non-custodial developers has hit a wall. Leaders of the Senate Judiciary Committee, including Senators Dick Durbin and Chuck Grassley, have intervened. They argue that shielding developers weakens laws against unlicensed money transmitters.
This political friction has created a significant procedural hurdle for the bill. Without a compromise, the entire legislative package risks indefinite delay.
The Battle Over Code Liability
For Coin Center, preserving this liability shield is a top priority. The advocacy group contends that punishing developers for the actions of users creates “chilling uncertainty” for open-source innovation.
The core issue revolves around control. Coin Center argues that if you merely publish code, like the developers of a decentralized exchange, you do not control user funds. Therefore, you cannot comply with Bank Secrecy Act requirements designed for custodial intermediaries.
This distinction is vital for the DeFi sector. Protocols where rely on developers building open systems without fear of prosecution.
If the Senate removes these protections, writing smart contracts could become a criminal liability in the U.S.
This debate refers back to earlier legislative attempts, such as the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, which sought similar clarifications regarding non-controlling blockchain services.
Discover: The best crypto to diversify your portfolio with.
What Happens Next?
The industry is now watching the Senate Banking Committee. They must decide whether to strip the clause to appease the Judiciary Committee or fight to keep it. Stripping it might pass the bill, but it leaves developers exposed.
Looking globally, the U.S. risks falling behind jurisdictions with clearer frameworks. For instance, Germany’s central bank endorsed stablecoins under the MiCA regulation, providing the kind of legal certainty U.S. builders are desperate for.
If the Senate fails to resolve this standoff, major market structure legislation could be pushed into late 2026. Until then, American developers operate in a dangerous gray zone.
Discover: Here’s the best pre-launch token sales in crypto now.
The post Coin Center Pushes Senate to Preserve Crypto Developer Liability Protections appeared first on Cryptonews.
Global markets are reacting sharply to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as reports suggest the US could be moving closer to a direct military confrontation with Iran.
Safe-haven assets such as gold and silver are climbing, oil prices are rising on supply fears, and Bitcoin is slipping as traders rotate away from risk-sensitive assets.
Iran Military Buildup Fuels Market Anxiety
Recent intelligence and media reports indicate that any potential conflict would not be a limited strike. Rather, it would be a broader, weeks-long campaign if launched, raising concerns about prolonged volatility across commodities, equities, and crypto.
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According to Axios analysis, evidence is mounting that a conflict could be imminent, with Israel reportedly preparing for a scenario of “war within days,” which could involve a “weeks-long ‘full-fledged’ war” and a joint US–Israeli campaign broader in scope than previous operations.
The same report noted that US forces in the region now include “2 aircraft carriers, 12 warships, hundreds of fighter jets, and multiple air defense systems.” This is in addition to more than 150 cargo flights transporting weapons and ammunition.
Oil prices reportedly surged above $64 per barrel following the news.
Separate commentary similarly described the US as being on the brink of a large-scale conflict, with stalled nuclear negotiations and a growing military presence increasing the risk of imminent action.
The assessment suggested that strikes could come within weeks if diplomacy collapses, with Donald Trump’s advisers continuing talks but failing to close key gaps.
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Commodity markets have been the most immediate beneficiaries of the rising geopolitical risk premium.
Analysts tracking market moves reported that gold, silver, and oil all advanced as tensions escalated. Silver posted some of the strongest gains among major assets.
“The precious metals sector has so far been the primary beneficiary of heightened US attack concerns,” commented commodities strategist Ole Hansen, adding that gold is trading above $5,000 while silver and platinum have also recorded significant gains.
Oil markets are also reacting to the possibility of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supply moves.
Even the perception of risk to this route tends to trigger sharp price swings, amplifying volatility across energy markets.
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Bitcoin Slips as Risk Appetite Weakens
While traditional safe havens rallied, cryptocurrencies moved in the opposite direction. Bitcoin fell below the critical support of $67,014 and was trading for $66,384 as of this writing.
This divergence, where Bitcoin slumps while gold, silver, and oil advance, reflects a broader risk-off shift in investor sentiment.
The divergence highlights a recurring pattern in periods of geopolitical stress: capital often flows first into commodities and cash-like instruments before returning to higher-beta assets such as crypto.
Debate Over the Likelihood and Consequences of War
Despite the buildup, some analysts remain skeptical that a full-scale war will materialize. Nigerian tech entrepreneur Mark Essien argued that a prolonged conflict would be far more complex than previous campaigns.
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Based on this, Essien warns that Iran’s drone capabilities and potential insurgency could make the situation difficult to resolve quickly. Meanwhile, domestic opposition in the US is also visible.
“Americans do not want to go to war with Iran!!! They want to be able to afford their lives and get ahead,” wrote former congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene.
At the same time, geopolitical risks may be expanding beyond a bilateral confrontation. Reports cited by defense analysts suggest that China could be providing Iran with intelligence and navigation support, potentially complicating the regional strategic balance.
With peace talks continuing but showing little sign of a breakthrough, markets are preparing for prolonged uncertainty. Traders are increasingly pricing in the possibility that any military action would be larger, longer, and more disruptive than recent conflicts.
It explains why commodities are reflecting fear, cryptos are reflecting caution, and global investors are watching diplomatic developments closely.
Whether diplomacy prevails or tensions escalate further may determine the direction of oil and gold, as well as the next major trend across global financial markets.
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