Fed Cut Already Priced In, Powell’s Tone and 2026 Shift Bullish for Crypto: Nansen

Crypto analysts are watching today’s Federal Reserve meeting closely, but according to Nansen’s Principal Research Analyst Aurelie Barthere, the rate cut itself is no longer the main story.

In a note shared with Cryptonews.com, Barthere said markets have already priced Fed rate cut in, adding that what matters now is Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s tone and the upcoming leadership transition in early 2026.

Fed to Stick to ‘Wait-and-See’ Approach

Barthere expects the Fed to deliver the widely anticipated 25-basis-point cut, noting that policymakers are likely to stress a data-dependent approach given the two-month lag in labor-market figures.

“The Fed is likely to maintain a wait-and-see stance,” she said, adding that she expects the terminal rate projection to remain near 3.0%, reflecting a divided committee.

Beyond today’s decision, Barthere pointed to the delayed announcement of Kevin Hassett as the next Fed Chair, now expected in early 2026, as a potentially bullish development for crypto markets.

A leadership shift toward a more growth-friendly stance could strengthen expectations for further easing next year.

On the technical front, Barthere said Bitcoin faces a critical test at the $91,000 level, where the 20-day EMA converges with a downtrend dating back to October.

She expects BTC to trade around this zone after the FOMC meeting, rather than making a decisive breakout.

The Fed meeting arrives at the end of a turbulent year for the US economy, marked by weakening labor conditions, rising layoffs, and renewed inflation pressure tied to President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.

The central bank is also operating with limited fresh data due to the U.S. government shutdown, which delayed November hiring and inflation releases.

Despite mixed signals, economists overwhelmingly expect another quarter-point cut. The CME FedWatch tool places the odds of a 25-bps move at 89.4%, which would mark the third consecutive reduction and push the federal funds rate into the 3.75%–4% range.

Fed Liquidity Boost Could Send Bitcoin “Sharply Higher,” Analysts Say

As reported, Bitcoin’s climb above $92,000 has stirred fresh optimism among market watchers who now believe this week’s Federal Reserve meeting could set off a far bigger rally.

Analysts at the London Crypto Club say a liquidity boost from the Fed on Wednesday may act as a powerful catalyst, potentially driving the world’s largest cryptocurrency “sharply higher.”

In their latest note, David Brickell and Chris Mills argue that the central bank is poised to deliver a “dovish surprise,” forecasting that policymakers will inject liquidity through a creative bond-buying mechanism rather than explicit quantitative easing.

“We’re moving into a continued rate-cutting cycle accompanied by balance sheet expansion as the Fed effectively turns on the money printers to monetise the deficit,” they wrote.

Meanwhile, a key on-chain indicator known as “liveliness” is climbing again, even as Bitcoin’s price action remains subdued.

Analysts say the divergence suggests renewed underlying demand, with dormant coins moving at levels not seen in years, a sign that long-term holders may be re-entering the market.

Last week, Bitfinex said the market is showing “seller exhaustion” following a period of heavy deleveraging and panic-driven exits by short-term holders.

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