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Firelight pushes XRP into DeFi cover as staked total tops 50M

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Firelight pushes XRP into DeFi cover as staked total tops 50M

Firelight said it is preparing an on-chain protection layer backed by staked XRP as DeFi projects face renewed security pressure. 

Summary

  • Firelight surpassed 50 million staked XRP after whale deposits and expanded capacity for FXRP vaults.
  • The protocol plans a Q2 protection layer covering smart contracts, bridges, oracles, and economic failures.
  • Firelight said exploit losses topped $137 million in Q1 as demand rose for on-chain protection.

The plan follows a new milestone for the protocol, which said staked XRP on Firelight has now passed 50 million on Flare.

According to a press release, Firelight crossed 50 million staked XRP after a series of large deposits. The report said several whale deposits were above 1 million XRP each, while the protocol also expanded capacity for FXRP deposits.

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Firelight operates on Flare’s FAssets system, where users deposit XRP, mint FXRP, and stake it in Firelight’s vault in return for stXRP. Firelight said stXRP can then move across the Flare ecosystem for other DeFi uses.

Firelight said the current vault is designed to pool capital for its DeFi Cover engine. In a recent protocol update, the team said the cover product is planned for Q2 and would track “Total Value Covered,” a measure tied to protected capital rather than deposited capital alone.

The protocol said the protection layer is meant to cover risks tied to smart contract failures, oracle issues, bridge exploits, and other economic vulnerabilities. Firelight expects this second phase to let other protocols buy protection backed by the staked FXRP pool.

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Security demand rises as exploit losses build

Firelight linked the rollout to the pace of recent DeFi losses. Thefts tied to DeFi exploits in the first quarter of 2026 passed $137 million, while Firelight pointed to a recent stablecoin exploit that produced $23 million in unbacked tokens after a private key leak.

In its latest protocol note, Firelight said its vaults were audited by OpenZeppelin and Coinspect, and that the FAssets bridge also went through audits. The same update said the first 25 million FXRP deposit ceiling filled within six hours, and the raised 65 million FXRP cap moved past the halfway mark soon after.

Firelight said it is building the protection layer with Sentora. Sentora is an institutional DeFi intelligence platform formed through the merger of IntoTheBlock and Trident Digital.

The partnership places Firelight’s next phase around risk management as much as staking. For XRP holders on Flare, the plan would tie staking activity to a protection market that targets DeFi security failures across multiple risk categories.

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Elizabeth Warren presses Commerce over Bitmain security review

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Elizabeth Warren presses Commerce over Bitmain security review

Senator Elizabeth Warren has asked the US Commerce Department to explain how it is handling reported security concerns tied to Bitmain, the Chinese company that makes much of the world’s Bitcoin mining equipment. 

Summary

  • Warren asked Commerce for records on Bitmain as federal security scrutiny of mining hardware continues.
  • Earlier probes examined whether Bitmain machines could pose espionage risks or disrupt critical infrastructure systems.
  • Warren also requested details on Bitmain contacts with Commerce officials and Trump family members involved.

Her request adds to growing attention on foreign-made mining hardware used across the US crypto sector.

Bloomberg reported that Warren sent a letter on Thursday to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick asking for documents and communications related to Bitmain and any steps the department has taken to address “potential national security concerns.” The report said the letter focused on how Commerce is handling the matter and whether political influence has affected those decisions.

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The request follows months of reporting about federal scrutiny of the company. A national security inquiry into Bitmain remains unresolved, and the current status of that review is still unclear. The same report noted that cases of this type can continue for years without a public enforcement action.

The Department of Homeland Security opened a probe known as Operation Red Sunset to examine whether Bitmain’s mining machines could create espionage or sabotage risks. That review looked at whether the machines could be remotely accessed or used in ways that could threaten US systems.

Moreover, a May 2024 federal review raised “national security concerns” about Bitmain machines used near a US military base. 

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Separately, Cambridge’s Digital Mining Industry Report said the ASIC mining hardware market is highly concentrated, with the top three manufacturers controlling more than 99% of market share and the largest vendor alone holding 82%.

Pressure on Bitmain has not been limited to the DHS review. In February 2025 US miners faced delivery delays after customs scrutiny affected Bitmain equipment shipments. TSMC halted shipments to Sophgo, a Bitmain-linked chip design firm, after a chip linked to Huawei was discovered. Later, the US added Sophgo to its trade blacklist.

These steps widened the focus from mining hardware alone to Bitmain’s broader business links. They also placed more attention on how Chinese crypto hardware suppliers interact with US trade and security policy.

Trump-linked mining ties add another layer

Bitmain also has business ties to American Bitcoin, a mining firm backed by Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. The company agreed last year to acquire 16,000 Bitmain rigs for $314 million, according to securities filings cited by Bloomberg. Warren’s request seeks information on any communications involving Bitmain, Commerce officials, and Trump family interests.

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At the same time, Bitmain has been building a larger US presence. In July 2025 the company planned its first US-based manufacturing site, with initial output expected in early 2026 and a broader ramp later in the year. That plan now sits beside an unresolved federal review and renewed political scrutiny in Washington.

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If Bitcoin falls below $60K, recovery could slip to 2027, data shows

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Crypto Breaking News

Bitcoin (BTC) has given back much of its March momentum, dipping about 1.4% for the month and registering a roughly 24.6% drop for the first quarter of 2026. Market observers note that this retreat fits a longer-term drawdown pattern that could extend into the end of 2026, with many analysts projecting another roughly 40% slide from prior highs. If that path plays out, a sustained recovery might not arrive until 2027, shifting the timing of a new bull phase well into the next year.

Across on-chain and market indicators, the signal mix remains nuanced. While price action points to renewed selling pressure, some metrics suggest the market is not yet at historic bottom zones, leaving traders watching for clearer signs of capitulation before a bottom is confirmed.

Key takeaways

  • Bitcoin’s drawdown deepens the uncertainty around the timing of a new cycle low, with potential relief not expected until late 2026 or 2027.
  • The Bitcoin Combined Market Index (BCMI) sits near 0.27, well above past bottoms around 0.12–0.15, implying further downside could be needed to retrace to historical troughs.
  • Historical data linking drawdown depth to recovery time suggests that a 40–60% decline can extend the path back to prior highs by many months.
  • On-chain and liquidity-focused perspectives point to ongoing selling pressure from larger market participants, potentially prolonging the downturn before a durable bottom forms.
  • A handful of macro- and policy signals—such as anticipated rate moves—could influence the pace of BTC’s recovery, reinforcing that the trajectory depends on both crypto dynamics and external factors.

Longer-cycle implications for BTC’s recovery window

Analysts highlight a pronounced link between how far Bitcoin falls and how long it takes to reclaim previous highs. Data from Ecoinometrics indicates that each additional 10% drop historically adds roughly 80 days to the time required to surpass prior peaks. With BTC down about 48% from its late-2025 highs, the implied recovery horizon stretches toward roughly 300 days from the October peak of around $126,000 in 2025. At the same time, about 172 days have elapsed in this cycle, suggesting approximately 125 to 130 more days if the cycle low lands near $60,000.

Even so, those cycle lows have not necessarily been definitively tagged, leaving open the possibility of further downside in the near term. The current picture is one of a protracted consolidation with macro volatility capable of reshaping the trajectory depending on policy and external demand drivers.

On-chain and market indicators complicate the bottoming process

On-chain analytics add nuance to the narrative. The Bitcoin Combined Market Index (BCMI), which aggregates MVRV, NUPL, SOPR and market sentiment, sits around 0.27. That level remains above the thresholds that have historically marked cycle bottoms since 2018, where bottom zones hovered near 0.15 or lower. In practical terms, BCMI’s current position suggests additional downside could be required to revisit historical lows, particularly if sell pressure persists across spot and futures markets.

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From a liquidity perspective, commentary from market observers underscores a stubborn weakness in the broader BTC liquidity regime. The narrative centers on a persistent distribution by larger holders, a factor that can slow any swift rebound even in the face of favorable macro developments.

Analyst voices: cycles, capitulation, and macro context

“Larger players are selling into this structure harder than they have in 18 months. That does not mean price has to collapse immediately. But it does mean this level is being tested with real sell pressure pressing into it.”

That assessment comes from a well-known trader who tracks whale-to-retail dynamics, highlighting that the current setup is being tested by substantial selling pressure at key technical levels. The implication is not an imminent crash, but rather a test of supply-demand equilibrium under heavy participation from larger market players.

Another influential voice in the space has long emphasized a wider cycle narrative. A prominent liquidity-focused analyst had previously sketched a path where Bitcoin could rally to the mid-$70,000s, only to re-enter a bearish regime as overall market liquidity deteriorates, and the “bear” phase extends through the latter part of the decade. In this framework, a deeper capitulation could extend the cycle until a clearer bottom forms, with the recovery not taking hold until early 2027.

Within the same ecosystem, macro considerations loom large. A respected macro-focused publication recently noted that monetary policy expectations are shifting. A notable forecast referenced by market watchers suggested rate cuts might not arrive until late 2027, with a non-trivial probability that rates could rise by March 2027. The dynamic between policy expectations and liquidity conditions adds an additional layer of uncertainty to Bitcoin’s timing for a durable rebound.

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These perspectives—whether anchored in on-chain signals, macro policy, or liquidity dynamics—underscore a common thread: the path to a new upside regime remains contingent on both the crypto market’s internal mechanics and the broader economic backdrop.

Related coverage has previously highlighted how shifts in on-chain metrics—such as supply in profit levels and other profit-and-loss indicators—can precede multi-fold moves in Bitcoin’s price. While not a guarantee, the interplay between investor behavior, realized versus market value, and macro stimuli remains a focal point for evaluating the next meaningful swing in BTC.

This synthesis reflects a cautious, data-driven view: Bitcoin’s next phase will depend on deeper capitulation signals, a rebalancing of on-chain metrics toward traditional bottoms, and a macro environment that gradually aligns with a renewed appetite for risk. Investors should monitor how the BCMI behaves relative to historical bottoms and watch for any decisive shifts in liquidity conditions and policy expectations as the year progresses.

This article does not constitute financial advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consider their risk tolerance before acting on market signals.

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Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Top crypto trends this week as markets turn risk-off

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Bitcoin, Ether drop as war tensions shake markets

Top trending stories this week were centered on politics, market stress, geopolitics, memecoin chatter, and yield-focused positioning. 

Summary

  • David Sacks moved to a broader advisory role as crypto traders tracked shifting Washington influence.
  • Risk-off selling, Circle worries and oil gains kept traders focused on market positioning this week.
  • Memescope Monday and cash-yield strategies showed traders balancing viral hype with capital preservation this weekend.

Santiment social data showed that traders entered the weekend watching David Sacks’ White House transition, a fresh risk-off selloff, new tech security fears, “Memescope Monday,” and a broader move toward cash and income strategies.

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David Sacks transition draws early attention

Santiment listed the David Sacks transition as one of the main stories in crypto discussion. Sacks stepped down from his White House AI and crypto role after reaching the 130-day limit for special government employees.

Moreover, Sacks is moving into a broader advisory role as co-chair of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology. That shift moves him away from a direct crypto policy post and toward a wider technology brief.

Risk-off selling stays at the center of market talk

Santiment said traders spent Friday discussing another risk-off move across tech and crypto. Meta shares fell after jury verdicts raised concerns about new legal exposure, while separate market coverage showed ARK Invest using Kalshi prediction market data as a risk tool.

The same social theme also included worries around Circle and USDC after debate over stablecoin reward limits in the CLARITY Act. Recent market reporting said those concerns pushed Circle shares sharply lower earlier this week.

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Geopolitics and AI security concerns widen the focus

Santiment said market nerves also rose as geopolitical tension and tech news collided. Oil prices rose on Friday as traders doubted the chances of a ceasefire in the Iran war, while social chatter tracked the effect on broader risk assets.

At the same time, concern around Anthropic’s “Claude Mythos” spread across markets. Leaked details described the model as Anthropic’s most powerful system so far, and market coverage showed cybersecurity stocks falling as investors reacted to those capabilities.

Memecoin hype and cash strategies round out the list

Santiment also said “Memescope Monday” became a viral social topic among traders looking for short-term momentum in memecoins and related protocols. The firm framed it as a retail-driven trend built on online attention rather than a formal policy or market event.

The final theme was “cash-and-yield.” Santiment said traders were discussing cash, stablecoins, options income, and tokenized yield as safer ways to manage uncertainty while war fears and rate pressure stayed in view.

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XRP traders watch April as open interest jumps 15%

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XRP Price Glitch Sends XRP to $126 on CNBC Broadcast

XRP traded near $1.34 on March 28, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $2.24 billion and a market cap near $82.04 billion. 

Summary

  • XRP held near $1.34 as traders watched April seasonality and a key $1.80 resistance level.
  • CryptoQuant data showed XRP returns still outpaced risk while Binance open interest climbed to 14.8%.
  • Analysts said XRP must reclaim $1.80, while weaker structure could expose next support near $1.00.

Meanwhile, the token was down almost 1% on the day and 7% over the past week, leaving price action stuck in a narrow range as traders look toward April.

XRP’s slow price action has drawn attention because April has often been one of its stronger months. Recent market data cited by CryptoRank showed that XRP’s average April return stands at 24.8%, keeping seasonal expectations in focus even as the token enters the new month under pressure.

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That backdrop has kept traders focused on whether XRP can repeat part of its earlier seasonal pattern. At the same time, current market data still shows weakness, with XRP underperforming the broader crypto market over the last seven days.

Market commentary around XRP remains split as price holds near support but fails to regain higher resistance. One analyst said, “Until $1.80 is reclaimed, every bounce is just a lower high,” while another recent market view described $1.80 as a key level that could shift momentum if buyers recover it on a sustained move.

On the downside, bearish scenarios still point to deeper support zones if the current structure fails. Recent market analysis has placed the next major downside area in the $1.00 to $1.20 range if selling pressure continues and XRP cannot rebuild strength above nearby resistance.

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Binance data shows mixed signals

CryptoQuant data from analyst Arab Chain showed some improvement in XRP’s risk-adjusted returns on Binance. The 30-day average return was around 0.00063, while the Sharpe Ratio stood near 0.0267, a sign that returns were still outpacing risk, though only by a moderate margin.

That steadier reading came as leverage started to build again in the derivatives market. Separate CryptoQuant data cited by recent market coverage showed Binance open interest rising 15%, while repeated long liquidation events on March 18, March 21, and March 26 showed that bullish positioning remained fragile during volatility.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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Bitcoin, ETH, Nasdaq Selloff Aligns With $38K BTC Setup

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • BTC lost 67K support and confirmed a bear flag continuation with $49K as the first clean downside target.
  • Stablecoin dominance breakout above 75.67 could strengthen the path toward the projected $38K BTC zone.
  • ETH dropped 9.32% in two days as downside technical structure opened a potential move toward $1,000.
  • Nasdaq, VIX, DXY, and crypto all flashed aligned breakdown signals across correlated risk markets.

Bitcoin slipped below the closely watched $67,000 pivot low before rebounding from $65,618, reviving a bearish chart structure that now points to deeper downside. 

The move coincided with renewed weakness across Ethereum, altcoins, and major equity futures, tightening correlations between crypto and traditional risk assets. 

Stablecoin dominance and volatility indicators also strengthened, reinforcing defensive positioning across the market. The latest technical breakdown now places $49,000 and $38,555 as the next major Bitcoin price levels in focus.

Bitcoin Price Bear Flag Breakdown Revives $38K Target

The latest market update shared by Aaron Dishner, known online as MooninPapa, outlined a clean bear flag continuation after BTC lost the 67K pivot.

According to the posted chart levels, Bitcoin’s first downside objective now sits at $49,000. The larger measured move extends to $38,555.

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The move mirrors the same 38.73% decline structure tracked from the March 17 local high. Momentum indicators continue to align with that bearish setup.

Relative strength index data printed a lower local low, which kept downside momentum intact rather than signaling reversal conditions.

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On-balance volume also crossed below its moving average, adding another layer of confirmation to the BTC price weakness.

Ethereum tracked the broader decline and fell 9.32% over the past two days, based on the same market breakdown. The reported structure now places $1,000 as a possible support zone.

Stablecoin dominance, combining USDT.D and USDC.D, broke above its bull flag formation in the same dataset. The February 24 high at 75.67 now acts as a critical trigger level.

If stablecoin dominance clears that level, the signal historically aligns with deeper crypto capitulation, placing the $38,000 Bitcoin zone in focus.

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Crypto Market Selloff Spreads to Altcoins, Stocks, and Commodities

The broader crypto market structure also weakened as TOTALES, TOTALE50, and TOTALE100 all broke key support zones.

Those indices failed to produce any TBO reset, while RSI continued making lower lows across the tracked timeframes.

Among large-cap altcoins, XRP showed weakness near TBO support, with the referenced fair value gap beginning near $0.50.

Solana also rejected from a bear flag pattern, keeping the $30 target active in the shared technical map.

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Several tokens, including AAVE, NEAR, VET, ETHFi, TWT, and EIGEN, printed TBO breakdown clusters in the same update.

Outside crypto, the U.S. dollar index broke short-term resistance in a bull flag structure on Friday, extending pressure on risk markets.

That move pushed USDJPY to 160.247, its highest level in two years, according to the provided macro data.

The VIX closed at 31.04, above Monday’s high, while S&P futures and Nasdaq both printed fresh TBO breakdowns.

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Gold and silver diverged from the broader weakness, with both metals holding support after confirmed RSI resets in the same market snapshot.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Plunges 4% as Geopolitical Fears and Massive Options Expiry Shake Markets

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price

Key Takeaways

  • Seasoned analyst Peter Brandt identified a rising wedge pattern suggesting potential declines toward $60,000 or as low as $49,000.
  • BTC experienced a 4%+ decline on March 27, settling in the $65,720–$66,030 range.
  • Deribit’s $14.16 billion options settlement eliminated 40% of outstanding contracts and sparked more than $115 million in leveraged long liquidations.
  • Escalating Middle East tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran are pushing capital flows toward the dollar and away from risk assets including Bitcoin.
  • Market experts from CEX.IO and Bitget Wallet anticipate additional downward pressure, highlighting $60,000 as a critical threshold.

Bitcoin experienced a significant pullback on March 27, shedding more than 4% of its value to hover near $65,720 as mounting geopolitical uncertainties converged with the largest quarterly options settlement on record.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price
Bitcoin (BTC) Price

The selloff intensified as ongoing hostilities involving the United States, Israel, and Iran prompted market participants to rotate into traditional safe-haven assets, particularly the U.S. dollar. Iran’s continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz amplified market anxiety, despite conflicting reports from former President Trump suggesting limited oil tanker passage as a diplomatic concession.

Renowned market technician Peter Brandt shared analysis on X highlighting a developing rising wedge formation—a classic bearish reversal pattern. His technical projection identifies $60,000 as the immediate downside objective should the pattern complete.

In a follow-up post, Brandt presented an alternate scenario targeting $49,000 as a potential multi-month price floor for Bitcoin. He emphasized that BTC demonstrates stronger adherence to traditional technical analysis principles than most asset classes.

Brandt’s previous forecasts called for Bitcoin to breach the $50,000 level during the current market correction cycle. His recent commentary reinforces this bearish outlook.

Record Options Settlement Creates Market Turbulence

On March 27 at 08:00 UTC, leading derivatives exchange Deribit processed a massive $14.16 billion Bitcoin options expiration—the largest single settlement event in 2026. This represented approximately 40% of the platform’s total open interest being closed simultaneously.

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The cascading effect triggered liquidations exceeding $115 million across leveraged long positions within just 60 minutes. Current data shows Bitcoin’s put-to-call ratio standing above 0.62, indicating a predominance of bearish positioning over bullish bets among derivatives traders.

Illia Otychenko, principal analyst at CEX.IO, characterized the current environment as bearish across both macroeconomic fundamentals and market sentiment. He cautioned that a breakdown below present channel support would likely catalyze a test of the $60,000 level.

Market Observers Anticipate Continued Volatility

Lacie Zhang, a research analyst with Bitget Wallet, noted that institutional players have systematically unwound bullish Bitcoin exposure throughout the quarter as part of yield-generation strategies. The expiration of these derivative positions removes a significant stabilizing force from the market structure.

Independent analyst Ted projects Bitcoin could breach $50,000 during Q2 2026 before potentially staging a sharp recovery toward $100,000 by year-end.

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Zhang emphasized that Bitcoin must convincingly reclaim and sustain trading above $75,000 to restore positive momentum. Absent this development, she anticipates increasingly erratic price action with amplified volatility.

Surging crude oil valuations have driven the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to its highest point since July 2025, further weighing on non-income-producing assets such as cryptocurrency.

Research analysts at Bernstein maintained their year-end Bitcoin price forecast of $150,000, pointing to historical patterns showing BTC outperformance relative to gold during periods of heightened global uncertainty.

The critical technical barrier for Bitcoin remains at $66,000. Technical analysts warn that a confirmed daily close beneath this support zone could accelerate downward momentum toward the $50,000 region.

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Lawmakers Introduce Second Bill Targeting Prediction Market Insider Trading

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Lawmakers Introduce Second Bill Targeting Prediction Market Insider Trading

A bipartisan group of senators introduced the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 on Thursday, prohibiting government officials from using nonpublic information to trade prediction-market contracts and imposing fines equal to twice the profits earned. It is the second prediction market bill introduced this week alone. That cadence is not a coincidence. It is a coordinated legislative signal.

The bill covers the president, vice president, members of Congress, political appointees, and employees of executive and independent regulatory agencies. Any contract wager above $250 must be reported to a supervising ethics office within 30 days, with disclosure requirements that include price, position, platform name, and profit or loss.

Congress is drawing a line around prediction markets as a new vector for insider trading. Two bills in five days means this is no longer a fringe concern.

  • Legislative Scope: The Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act covers the president, vice president, all members of Congress, political appointees, and federal agency employees — with mandatory reporting of any contract wager exceeding $250 within 30 days.
  • Penalty Structure: Violations carry fines up to double the amount of profits earned, targeting financial incentives directly rather than imposing flat regulatory penalties.
  • Market Implication: Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket — which updated trading rules on March 23, 2026, to ban use of confidential information — now face potential CFTC scrutiny and mandatory compliance audits if either bill advances to markup.

Discover: The best crypto presales gaining institutional momentum right now

The Bill: What the Public Integrity Act Actually Prohibits

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Senators Todd Young, Elissa Slotkin, John Curtis, and Adam Schiff introduced the bill in the second session of the 119th Congress. The legislation defines insider information as anything a “reasonable investor would consider important” in making a prediction market decision that is not publicly available — a standard deliberately broad enough to cover policy knowledge, regulatory decisions, and government actions before they are announced.

The reporting framework requires officials to disclose the number of contracts purchased, the price and timestamp of each transaction, the contract name, the position taken, the trading platform used, and any profit or loss. That level of granularity mirrors securities disclosure requirements, not casual wagering oversight.

Senator Slotkin framed the bill sharply: “No one should be profiting off the information and knowledge gained as a public servant, period.” She added the bill “has real teeth to ensure those who break these rules face real consequences.” The double-profit penalty structure is designed to eliminate any financial logic behind the violation.

This bill follows the PREDICT Act, introduced March 25, 2026, by Reps. Nikki Budzinski (D-IL) and Adrian Smith (R-NE), which imposes civil penalties of 10% of the transaction value plus full disgorgement of profits to the U.S. Treasury. The PREDICT Act extends trading bans to spouses, dependent children, and Executive Schedule positions — a broader personal scope than the Senate bill. Together, they cover nearly every category of federal official and their immediate households.

Rep. Adrian Smith summarized the bipartisan rationale: “Our commonsense, bipartisan bill will give Americans confidence that the decisions of their elected officials are guided by merit, not personal profit.” Both bills specifically target platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, which have emerged as the dominant U.S.-accessible prediction market venues.

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The Curtis-Schiff Senate effort, introduced earlier this week, also introduced a companion measure targeting sports betting contracts on prediction platforms, a third legislative prong running parallel to the insider trading focus. That broader sweep suggests Congressional intent extends beyond political event markets into the full prediction market category.

Discover: The best crypto presales gaining institutional momentum right now

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P2P.me admits Polymarket trade on fundraising outcome

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Kalshi CEO defends ‘no death’ rule after Khamenei market backlash

P2P.me said it traded on a Polymarket contract tied to its own fundraising round before the raise went live. 

Summary

  • P2P.me opened Polymarket positions before its fundraising launch and admitted the disclosure delay was wrong.
  • The project raised $5.2 million, missed its $6 million target, and the market resolved no.
  • US lawmakers and prediction platforms are tightening rules as insider trading concerns spread wider now.

The disclosure adds fresh attention to insider trading risks on prediction markets as US lawmakers and platforms move to tighten rules.

The team behind the decentralized trading platform said it opened positions on Polymarket 10 days before its capital raise launched. The market asked whether the project would reach its $6 million target. At that time, the team said it had only one “oral commitment” from Multicoin Capital for $3 million, with “no signed term sheets” and “no guaranteed allocations.”

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The raise later closed at $5.2 million, below the target, and the market resolved to “no.” The team said it understands why some people may see the trade as a trust issue, even though it did not view the bet as trading on a completed deal.

P2P.me said any profits from the positions will go back to its MetaDAO treasury, which serves as the reserve for the DAO that governs the platform. The team also said it is liquidating all open Polymarket positions and putting in place a formal company policy on prediction market trading.

In its statement, the team said, 

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“Trading on an outcome you can influence erodes trust.” It added that “not disclosing at the time was a mistake we own.” 

Those remarks came as the platform moved to address criticism around market conduct and transparency.

Prediction markets face wider policy pressure

The disclosure comes as scrutiny around prediction markets grows in Washington and beyond. On March 25, Representatives Nikki Budzinski and Adrian Smith introduced the PREDICT Act, a bipartisan bill aimed at stopping senior government officials from insider trading on prediction markets.

At the same time, Polymarket and Kalshi have both announced tighter insider trading rules. Polymarket now says users cannot trade on contracts when they hold confidential information or can influence an outcome, while California barred state officials from using insider knowledge to bet on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. 

A separate Senate bill would ban event contracts tied to elections, sports, government actions, and military moves.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Miners Bleed $19K Per Coin, Pivot Hard Toward AI Infrastructure

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

Key Takeaways

  • Mining a single Bitcoin cost approximately $80,000 during Q4 2025, creating a ~$19,000 loss per coin with BTC trading near $70,000
  • Public mining companies have secured more than $70 billion in artificial intelligence and high-performance computing deals
  • AI revenue could comprise as much as 70% of miner income by late 2026, up from approximately 30% currently
  • Mining firms are liquidating Bitcoin holdings and accumulating billions in debt to finance their AI infrastructure pivot
  • Network hashrate has declined from 1,160 EH/s to roughly 920 EH/s as operations shut down

The economics of Bitcoin mining have turned upside down. A recent CoinShares analysis reveals that publicly traded mining operations spent an average of $79,995 to produce each Bitcoin during the fourth quarter of 2025. With Bitcoin currently valued at approximately $70,000, these companies are hemorrhaging roughly $19,000 for every coin mined.

This crushing financial reality has triggered a dramatic industry transformation. Mining companies are rapidly repurposing their facilities into artificial intelligence and high-performance computing (HPC) infrastructure — and liquidating their Bitcoin reserves to finance the transition.

The scale of this shift is staggering. Public mining entities have collectively announced AI and HPC agreements exceeding $70 billion in value. CoreWeave’s partnership with Core Scientific represents a $10.2 billion commitment spanning 12 years. TeraWulf has locked in $12.8 billion in HPC revenue contracts. Hut 8 executed a $7 billion AI infrastructure lease. Cipher Digital secured a massive agreement with Google-backed Fluidstack worth billions.

Core Scientific is already deriving 39% of total revenue from AI colocation services. TeraWulf generates 27% from this segment. IREN sits at 9% but is expanding aggressively, constructing up to 200 megawatts of liquid-cooled GPU infrastructure.

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According to CoinShares Head of Research James Butterfill, publicly listed miners could derive as much as 70% of revenue from AI operations by the close of 2026 — a dramatic increase from today’s 30% figure.

Financing the Infrastructure Transformation

Mining companies are funding this strategic pivot through two primary channels: leveraging debt and liquidating Bitcoin holdings.

IREN now shoulders $3.7 billion in convertible note obligations. TeraWulf carries $5.7 billion in aggregate debt. Cipher Digital issued $1.7 billion in senior secured notes during November, causing quarterly interest expenses to skyrocket from $3.2 million to $33.4 million in Q4 alone.

Simultaneously, public mining companies have collectively offloaded over 15,000 Bitcoin from peak treasury positions. Core Scientific liquidated approximately 1,900 BTC valued at $175 million in January. Bitdeer completely depleted its treasury reserves in February. Riot sold 1,818 BTC worth $162 million during December. Marathon, holding the largest public Bitcoin position at 53,822 BTC, amended its corporate policy in March to permit sales from its entire balance sheet reserve.

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The financial incentives strongly favor AI infrastructure. Traditional Bitcoin mining facilities require roughly $700,000 to $1 million per megawatt in capital expenditure. AI data centers demand $8 million to $15 million per megawatt, but generate profit margins exceeding 85% with guaranteed long-term revenue contracts.

Impact on Bitcoin’s Network Security

The mining industry’s strategic realignment is manifesting in observable network metrics. [[LINK_START_2]]Bitcoin’s[[LINK_END_2]] hashrate reached a peak of 1,160 exahashes per second in October 2025. It has subsequently declined to approximately 920 EH/s, marked by three consecutive negative difficulty adjustments — the first such consecutive decline since July 2022.

On March 20, mining difficulty decreased 7.7%, representing one of the most significant single-period reductions recorded this year.

CoinShares forecasts hashrate could potentially recover to 1.8 zetahashes by year-end 2026 — but only under the condition that Bitcoin returns to $100,000 valuations. If prices remain beneath $80,000, the research firm anticipates additional miner capitulation.

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Mining companies with secured AI contracts currently command valuations of 12.3 times forward sales. Pure Bitcoin mining operations trade at just 5.9 times. MARA was highlighted as among the few major miners maintaining focus on Bitcoin production and low-cost energy acquisition strategies.

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White House launches app with policy updates, curated news and ICE tip link

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Tim Scott signals progress on stablecoin yield dispute holding up crypto bill

The White House on Friday launched a smartphone app that gives users direct access to administration updates, social posts, photos and policy pages tied to President Donald Trump’s second term. 

Summary

  • White House app offers policy pages, curated news, social feeds, media tools and contact options.
  • Users can send tips to ICE while viewing affordability claims and border-focused administration messaging sections.
  • The app promised live video, but Trump’s Friday remarks were not streamed in real time.

The administration said the app would deliver information “straight from the source, no filter” after several teaser videos on official social media accounts pointed to a coming launch.

The White House said the app offers breaking news alerts, live video, a media library and direct feedback tools. In its release, the administration described the product as a way to keep users informed and engaged with the Trump administration through real-time updates and push notifications.

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The rollout followed a short teaser campaign on social media that drew public attention before the launch. People reported that one video showed a woman asking whether something was “launching soon,” while a White House spokesperson later replied, “I wonder what’s launching soon!” before the app went live.

The app includes tabs for news, livestreams, social feeds and photo galleries. The Verge reported that much of the content mirrors existing White House web pages rather than adding a separate service built only for the app.

Coverage of the launch also said the app directs users to policy and achievements pages that were already live on the White House website. Daily Voice reported that the product also pulls in curated news coverage and material focused on Trump’s policy priorities and record in office.

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A “Get in Touch” option in the social section includes a path for users to submit tips to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement through the agency’s official form. The same menu also offers options to text the president, contact the White House and sign up for a newsletter.

The app also includes an affordability page built around selected consumer prices. Daily Voice reported that the section uses a limited set of grocery items and leaves out other goods and energy costs that have moved higher, while another border page states that “0 Illegals Released in Past 10 Months.”

Some promised features were not visible at launch

The White House release said users would be able to watch speeches and briefings as they happen. Yet Daily Voice reported that Trump’s Friday remarks to farmers at the White House were not available in real time on the app during the afternoon event.

The launch came as the administration continued to frame rising costs as temporary. Daily Voice reported that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described recent price pressure as “short-term volatility,” while the app itself focused on selected price declines and investment pledges from foreign governments and large companies.

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