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Galaxy Analyst Warns Bitcoin Could Drop to $63K Due to Ownership Gap

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Galaxy Digital Bitcoin $63K - Bitcoin Supple at Price Last Moved Onchain

Galaxy Digital’s Head of Research, Alex Thorn, has issued a stark warning that Bitcoin could fall another 19% to the $63,000 level, citing a significant gap in onchain ownership between $82,000 and $70,000.

The warning comes as Bitcoin already trades over 38% below its October 6, 2025, all-time high of $126,298.

Thorn’s analysis reveals that the current price structure lacks meaningful demand between $70,000 and $80,000, creating a vacuum that could accelerate selling pressure in the near term.

The report paints a picture of a market still grappling with deep structural weakness despite bullish narratives.

The $70K-$80K Ownership Gap Spells Trouble

According to Galaxy Research’s Bitcoin supply data based on when coins last moved onchain, a clear gap in ownership is visible in the $70,000-$80,000 range.

Galaxy Digital Bitcoin $63K - Bitcoin Supple at Price Last Moved Onchain
Source: Galaxy Research

The vast majority of the approximately 194,000 BTC shown to have last traded between $77,000 and $79,500 and did so just within the last two days, meaning these are shallow positions unlikely to hold under pressure.

Significant purchases have been made between $80,000 and $92,000 over the last four months, but all other price cohorts have contributed to selling pressure.

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Galaxy Digital Bitcoin $63K - URPD Difference Between Chart
Source: Galaxy Research

“While it could see chop around the historic max discount-to-ETF-cost-basis of -10% (currently around $76k), for the reasons above, there is a significant chance that BTC drifts towards the bottom of the supply gap ($70k) and then potentially tests the realized price ($56k) and 200-week moving average ($58k) over the coming weeks and months,” Thorn explained.

Historical Patterns Signal Deeper Pain Ahead

With the exception of 2017, Bitcoin has never experienced a 40% drawdown from its all-time high that didn’t extend to 50% or more within three months.

A 50% drawdown from the current all-time high would place BTC at exactly $63,000, the level Thorn flags as the next major pain point.

Data from Galaxy Research shows that across the last three bull markets in 2013/14, 2017/18, 2019, and 2021, the 50-week moving average served as key support.

Galaxy Digital Bitcoin $63K - Bitcoin Key Levels Chart
Source: Galaxy Research

However, when that level was lost, the price ultimately reverted to the 200-week moving average each time.

Bitcoin lost the 50-week moving average in November 2025, and the 200-week moving average currently sits at $58,000.

The realized price, measuring the average cost basis for coins based on their last onchain movements, currently sits around $56,000, presenting another critical support zone to watch.

Gold Outperforms as Bitcoin Struggles With Narrative

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Since the beginning of Q4 2025, Bitcoin has failed to keep pace with traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver, a trend that has not gone unnoticed by financial commentators.

Investors have been fleeing toward commodities amid escalating trade tensions and growing concerns over the sustainability of global sovereign debt.

Galaxy Digital Bitcoin $63K - Bitcoin Price Chart
Source: TradingView

Bitcoin was widely expected to benefit from these conditions, given its decentralized nature and borderless utility.

Yet the leading cryptocurrency has moved in the opposite direction, surrendering ground to established hard assets and losing credibility among investors seeking refuge from macroeconomic turbulence.

Where Could BTC Bottom Hold?

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Galaxy Research flagged at the tail end of last year that 2026 would likely prove too unpredictable to pin down a year-end price target for BTC.

Forty-five days into the year, that assessment has only proven more accurate.

Despite the bleak near-term outlook, the investment firm sees a potential opportunity emerging at lower levels.

Thorn noted that Bitcoin has historically found support around or slightly below the realized price before trading higher at past bear-market bottoms.

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Galaxy Digital Bitcoin $63K - Bitcoin Key Levels Chart
Source: Galaxy Research

If price falls toward the 200-week moving average at $58,000 or the realized price at $56,000, Galaxy Research believes these levels should present strong entry points for long-term investors, consistent with patterns seen in previous cycles.

The post Galaxy Analyst Warns Bitcoin Could Drop to $63K Due to Ownership Gap appeared first on Cryptonews.

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Crypto World

Stablecoins Do Not Threaten Banking Just Yet: Analyst

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Stablecoins Do Not Threaten Banking Just Yet: Analyst

The impact of stablecoins on the banking sector appears “limited” at the current phase of the adoption cycle, but banks could face increasing competition and an erosion of market share as the stablecoin sector and tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) grow in market capitalization. 

“So far, the use of stablecoins remains limited, but their market capitalization exceeded $300 billion at the end of last year,” Abhi Srivastava, associate vice president of Moody’s Investors Service Digital Economy Group, told Cointelegraph.

The stablecoin market cap has surged past $300 billion. Source: RWA.xyz

The role of stablecoins in payments, cross-border commerce and onchain finance is “expanding,” despite their currently limited role, Srivastava said, adding that existing payment systems in the US are already “fast, low-cost and trusted.” He said:

“For the banking sector, at this stage, disruption risk appears limited. In the near term, US rules that prohibit stablecoins from paying yield mean they are unlikely to replace traditional deposits at scale domestically.”

However, over time, growing adoption of stablecoins and tokenized RWAs, traditional or physical financial assets represented on a blockchain by a token, could place “pressure” on the banking sector, leading to deposit outflows and reduced lending capacity, he said.

Stablecoin regulatory policy has become a hot-button issue among crypto industry executives and those in the banking sector, with fears that yield-bearing stablecoins could erode banking market share proving to be a stumbling block for the CLARITY crypto market structure bill in Congress. 

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Related: Stablecoins behave like FX markets as liquidity splits: Eco CEO

CLARITY Act stalled, as banks fight yield-bearing stablecoins

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, also known as the CLARITY Act, is a comprehensive crypto market regulatory framework that establishes an asset taxonomy, regulatory jurisdiction and oversight over the crypto markets.

The CLARITY crypto market structure bill. Source: US Congress

It is now stalled in Congress after a group of crypto industry companies, led by cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, publicly stated opposition to earlier drafts of the bill.

A lack of legal protections for open-source software developers and a prohibition on yield-bearing stablecoins were among some of the most contentious issues cited by crypto industry opponents of the legislation.

Several attempts have been made by US lawmakers and the White House to negotiate a bill acceptable to both the crypto industry and the bank lobby.

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Earlier this month, North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis said he plans to release an updated draft bill proposal that would be acceptable to both sides; however, the bill has reportedly received pushback, according to Politico, and has yet to be publicly released. 

However, other crypto industry executives and market analysts have warned that if the CLARITY Act fails to pass, it could open the crypto industry up to future regulatory crackdowns by hostile lawmakers and officials.

Magazine: Stablecoins will see explosive growth in 2025 as world embraces asset class