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Gear Up for the Fed’s ‘Gradual Print’ Strategy

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Crypto Breaking News

As the Federal Reserve navigates a gradual path of monetary expansion, investors increasingly view crypto markets through a macro lens. In a view echoed by Lyn Alden, a respected economist and Bitcoin advocate, the current regime is likely to spur asset prices in a measured way—enough to lift high-quality assets while avoiding the explosive rallies some on-chain enthusiasts once forecast. Alden argues the Fed’s balance sheet will grow roughly in proportion to nominal GDP, a framework that, she contends, supports a cautious reallocation toward scarce, resilient assets and away from crowded speculative bets. In this environment, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) remains a focal point for traders weighing how policy will ripple through liquidity and risk appetite.

The strategist’s stance sits against a backdrop of political and regulatory uncertainty shaping the Fed’s next moves. Alden’s February 2026 investment strategy newsletter suggests a continued emphasis on “high-quality scarce assets,” coupled with a strategic rebalance away from euphoric sectors toward areas that are under-owned but structurally robust. The broader context includes the ongoing debate about who will lead the Fed next, with market participants parsing how a potential chairmanship—whether Kevin Warsh or another figure—might tilt policy toward hawkish or dovish tendencies. The macro narrative is essential for crypto traders because interest-rate trajectories and liquidity cycles are historically linked to crypto price dynamics.

Historically, market outcomes hinge on the direction of credit and money supply. When policymakers expand credit by increasing the money supply, many assets—crypto included—tend to benefit in the near term. Conversely, a contractionist stance manifested through higher rates can dampen risk assets and compress prices. This duality informs current expectations: central banks have signaled a cautious, data-dependent approach, but investors remain vigilant for any signs that the balance sheet will outpace or merely keep pace with monitored economic growth. In late 2025, Powell pointed to a nuanced policy path, describing inflation and employment risks as two sides of a balancing act, and underscoring that policy carries no risk-free shortcut.

“Interest rate policy can influence crypto prices,” an established principle that investors continuously test. The flow of credit and the liquidity environment shape risk sentiment, and crypto markets—while diverse—are not insulated from such macro moves. The relationship between liquidity provision and asset prices remains central to how traders structure portfolios in the months ahead. Earlier this year, crypto observers noted how shifts in policy expectations could reprice risk, particularly for assets that benefited from prior rounds of monetary stimulus. A related analysis outlined how lingering policy ambiguity—especially around rate paths and balance-sheet expansion—can sustain volatility in the space.

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Market observers have been tracking forward guidance and rate-path probabilities with particular attention to the upcoming FOMC decision window. Early signals suggested that a March rate cut was no sure thing, with traders estimating a roughly 20% probability of a cut at the next meeting, down from a prior reading near 23%. This shift reflects a broader re-pricing of risk as investors weigh the possibility that the Fed may remain cautious about inflation momentum and labor-market dynamics. The CME FedWatch tool has become a barometer for these expectations, showing a move toward pricing in steadier policy rather than aggressive easing.

At the same time, the policy backdrop remains unsettled. Powell, who leads the Federal Reserve, has faced questions about the speed and scale of future rate adjustments. Following the December FOMC meeting, he acknowledged that inflation risks appeared skewed to the upside in the near term, even as employment remained robust. With Powell’s term set to expire and Warsh’s confirmation still awaited by the Senate, investors must factor in the possibility that the committee’s consensus could shift as new data arrives. In such an environment, crypto traders increasingly view Bitcoin not merely as a speculative asset but as a potential hedge or cycle-levered instrument whose performance is tied to macro liquidity dynamics and the policy stance around money creation.

In the broader conversation about how policy affects asset prices, several interconnected themes emerge. First, the pace of balance-sheet expansion remains a critical variable; if the Fed continues to grow the monetary base in step with nominal GDP, the implication could be a gradual upward drift in risk assets, including crypto. Second, the market’s sensitivity to the chair’s temperament and the committee’s tightening or easing cadence means that any signals about policy discipline, inflation expectations, or financial-stability concerns can translate into intensified price movements across digital assets. Finally, the crypto space continues to wrestle with regulatory clarity and institution-building, which amplifies the impact of macro shifts on liquidity and diversification choices for investors.

Key takeaways

  • The Fed is anticipated to maintain a gradual expansion of its balance sheet, aiming to grow in proportion to nominal GDP, a framework that could support broad asset prices without triggering extreme liquidity surges.
  • Lyn Alden cautions that investors should rebalance away from euphoric sectors toward high-quality scarce assets, signaling a selective, value-oriented strategy for crypto holders.
  • Market pricing for a March rate cut sits around 20%, down from prior levels, reflecting uncertainty about how inflation and employment data will unfold in the near term.
  • Policy uncertainty, including the potential shift in leadership at the Fed, adds a layer of risk to crypto liquidity and risk sentiment in 2026.
  • Crypto-price respond to money-supply signals, making Bitcoin a barometer for macro liquidity and policy expectations in the current cycle.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC

Market context: The macro backdrop remains characterized by ongoing liquidity considerations, policy guidance, and the broader risk-on/risk-off dynamic that has been shaping crypto markets as investors reassess long-term growth prospects and the trajectory of central-bank balance sheets.

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Sentiment: Neutral

Price impact: Neutral. The policy path is seen as supportive for risk assets in a gradual way, but expectations for aggressive liquidity expansion have cooled, keeping volatility in check but not eliminating it.

Why it matters

For investors, the evolving policy framework matters because it defines the liquidity environment in which crypto markets operate. If the Fed sustains a measured expansion of its balance sheet alongside steady GDP growth, high-quality assets—often those with scarce supply or strong fundamentals—could outperform in a backdrop of resilient demand. Bitcoin, as the most mature cryptocurrency with significant liquidity and institutional interest, often reacts to shifts in money supply and policy expectations. The current outlook suggests a world where disciplined, data-driven decisions—rather than rapid-fire stimulus—could guide asset price trajectories, with crypto portfolios needing to adapt to changing risk premia and macro signals.

Builders and developers in the crypto space may also take cues from this macro environment. A more predictable policy path could reduce some downside macro risk, enabling longer-term experimentation and product development in decentralized finance, layer-1 ecosystems, and institutional-grade custody and liquidity solutions. Yet, the absence of a clear, easing-driven bull case could maintain a careful stance among investors who prize resilience and yield stability over speculative exuberance. In this setting, projects with robust on-chain economics, real-world utility, and sustainable governance could attract more durable capital, while speculative plays may experience more episodic volatility as market probabilities shift.

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From a regulatory and institutional perspective, the interplay between central-bank signaling and crypto-market liquidity remains a focal point. If policymakers continue to emphasize cautious growth and gradual easing, the path of least friction for crypto institutions could involve deeper integration with traditional financial rails, enhanced risk controls, and clearer frameworks for custody, settlement, and reporting. The story remains dynamic, with policy, macro data, and market sentiment converging to shape the next phase of crypto adoption and price discovery.

What to watch next

  • March FOMC outcome and the probability of a rate move, as reflected by CME FedWatch.
  • Any new signals from the Fed about the pace of balance-sheet expansion and its relationship to nominal GDP growth.
  • Nominal GDP growth data and inflation readings that could influence the committee’s guidance.
  • Status of Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as Fed Chair and how leadership could influence policy tilt.
  • Bitcoin price action in response to macro liquidity shifts and any notable shifts in institutional participation.

Sources & verification

  • Lyn Alden’s February 2026 investment strategy newsletter (link to the original newsletter).
  • Federal Reserve policy commentary and remarks by Chair Jerome Powell, including December FOMC statements.
  • Market expectations for rates compiled by CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
  • Related analyses on the impact of fed interest rates on crypto holders and investor sentiment pieces.

Fed policy signals, Alden’s outlook, and Bitcoin posture

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) sits at an intersection of macro policy and crypto market dynamics. Alden’s framework—favoring high-quality scarce assets and a measured reallocation away from speculative corners—suggests a patient, risk-aware stance for crypto investors. The notion that the Fed will pursue balance-sheet growth in line with nominal GDP implies a lingering but controlled liquidity environment, one that can support gradual asset price appreciation without igniting runaway inflation fears. In this context, BTC may benefit more from a steady money-supply backdrop than from sudden, outsized stimulus, aligning with a broader market preference for resilience and fundamentals. Readers can monitor the evolving policy narrative through linked discussions on Bitcoin’s price movements and broader crypto-market responses to rate expectations.

Powell’s cautionary framing—emphasizing no risk-free path for policy—highlights the asymmetry in policy outcomes. As the Senate weighs Warsh’s nomination, investors must weigh the likelihood of a hawkish tilt against the potential for cooler inflation readings later in the year. This balance matters for crypto liquidity, as a more cautious stance could prompt a shift in risk appetite, favoring assets with clearer on-chain utility and governance structures over more speculative bets. Taken together, the macro backdrop underscores the need for disciplined positioning, selective exposure, and ongoing scrutiny of liquidity signals as crypto traders navigate a landscape defined by gradual monetary expansion rather than rapid-fire stimulus.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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What It Is and Agent-First Coding

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What It Is and Agent-First Coding

Google Antigravity is a new development environment designed specifically for the era of software built alongside autonomous AI agents. Unlike traditional IDEs, which integrate artificial intelligence as an auxiliary assistant, Antigravity introduces a fundamentally different paradigm: agent‑first development.

In this model, developers no longer interact solely with files and syntax. Instead, they collaborate with intelligent agents capable of planning, generating, refactoring, testing and maintaining entire software systems.

For frontend engineers, backend developers, full‑stack specialists, software architects and technical teams working with AI‑assisted workflows, understanding Google Antigravity is not optional. It represents an early signal of how modern engineering productivity is about to change.

This article explains what Google Antigravity is, how it works conceptually, how it differs from current AI‑enhanced IDEs, and why it could reshape software development over the coming years.

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What is Google Antigravity

Google Antigravity is an agent‑native integrated development environment built for collaboration with autonomous coding agents rather than traditional editor‑centric workflows.

Where environments such as VS Code or JetBrains products embed AI as contextual support layers, Antigravity positions agents as active participants across the entire development lifecycle.

This includes:

  • technical task planning
  • structured code generation
  • automated refactoring
  • assisted debugging
  • orchestration of complex workflows
  • continuous project maintenance

The result is a shift in abstraction level. Developers move from writing every component manually to supervising systems that co‑develop software alongside them.


What agent‑first development actually means

Agent‑first development describes a model in which AI agents operate as collaborators rather than passive assistants.

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In a traditional IDE workflow:

the developer writes → the AI suggests

In an agent‑first workflow:

the developer defines intent → the agent executes strategy

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This transition allows engineers to operate at a higher architectural level.

Instead of issuing narrow implementation commands such as:

“create a REST endpoint with validation”

Developers can express broader objectives like:

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“implement a complete authentication system compatible with the existing architecture”

The agent interprets repository structure, dependencies, conventions and constraints before generating coherent solutions.

This fundamentally changes how programmers interact with codebases.


Conceptual architecture behind Google Antigravity

Although Google has not yet published full technical documentation for Antigravity, its behaviour aligns with emerging agent‑native development environment architectures.

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These systems typically operate across several coordinated layers.

Intent interpretation layer

At this stage, the agent analyses:

  • natural‑language instructions
  • repository structure
  • active dependencies
  • project history
  • architectural conventions

This enables context‑aware execution rather than isolated code generation.

Planning layer

Before producing code, the agent structures an execution strategy.

Typical responsibilities include:

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  • decomposing complex tasks
  • identifying dependency conflicts
  • proposing structural improvements
  • estimating architectural impact

This reduces the risk of incremental inconsistencies common in manual workflows.

Execution layer

The agent then generates concrete artefacts such as:

  • new source files
  • refactored modules
  • automated test suites
  • migrations
  • technical documentation

All changes remain synchronised with the active repository context.

Validation layer

Finally, the system evaluates:

  • code coherence
  • module compatibility
  • architectural alignment
  • runtime stability assumptions

This moves development closer to a semi‑autonomous engineering model.


How Antigravity differs from traditional IDEs

Google Antigravity is not simply another editor enhanced with AI capabilities.

It represents a structural change in how developers interact with software systems.

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Key differences include the following.

From autocomplete to autonomous execution

Conventional IDEs suggest lines of code.

Antigravity executes complete implementation strategies.

From files to intent

Traditional editors operate at file level.

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Antigravity operates at goal level.

From reactive assistance to active collaboration

Most AI tools respond only when prompted.

Agent‑native environments participate continuously in solution design.

From incremental productivity gains to exponential workflow acceleration

Automating entire development segments transforms how quickly complex systems can evolve.

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This becomes especially relevant in large‑scale or fast‑moving projects.


Practical use cases for developers

Google Antigravity is designed to integrate naturally into modern engineering workflows where iteration speed is critical.

Several scenarios illustrate its immediate value.

Rapid prototyping

Developers can generate functional architectures in minutes rather than hours.

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This accelerates:

  • idea validation
  • technical experimentation
  • early product iteration

Legacy codebase refactoring

Agents can analyse internal dependencies and propose structural improvements across large repositories.

This is particularly useful in long‑lived enterprise projects.

Automated test generation

Testing remains one of the most persistent bottlenecks in professional development.

Agent‑native environments help maintain:

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  • continuous coverage
  • regression protection
  • incremental validation cycles

Living technical documentation

Agents can maintain documentation aligned with evolving codebases.

This significantly improves onboarding efficiency across engineering teams.


Comparison with other AI‑powered IDE environments

Google Antigravity enters an ecosystem that already includes tools such as Cursor, Copilot Workspace and emerging agent‑centric development platforms.

However, its positioning introduces important distinctions.

Compared with VS Code plus Copilot

Copilot enhances editing.

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Antigravity transforms execution workflows.

Compared with Cursor

Cursor improves contextual editing interactions.

Antigravity restructures the development model itself.

Compared with experimental autonomous coding systems

Many current agent tools operate as external orchestration layers.

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Antigravity integrates agents directly into the core environment.

This allows deeper architectural alignment and stronger repository awareness.


How Antigravity may reshape developer workflows

The most important impact of Antigravity is methodological rather than purely technical.

Developers shift from implementation‑centric roles towards supervision‑centric engineering.

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In practice, engineers increasingly act as:

  • system designers
  • agent supervisors
  • architectural strategists

This evolution enables smaller teams to deliver larger systems with fewer coordination bottlenecks.

It also encourages higher‑level thinking about structure, scalability and maintainability.


Strategic advantages for development teams

Adopting agent‑first environments can produce measurable improvements across engineering organisations.

Key advantages include:

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Reduced development time

Automating repetitive implementation tasks frees cognitive capacity for higher‑value problem solving.

Improved architectural consistency

Agents help maintain structural patterns across repositories.

Easier technical scalability

Complex structural changes can be planned and executed more reliably.

Faster experimentation cycles

Teams can validate architectural decisions without significant upfront implementation investment.

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These benefits are especially valuable in startup environments and innovation‑driven product teams.


Current limitations of agent‑native development environments

As with any emerging technology category, Antigravity introduces new challenges alongside its advantages.

Important considerations include:

Dependence on repository structure quality

Agents perform best when working within clearly organised projects.

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Continued need for human oversight

Autonomy does not replace engineering judgement.

Expert review remains essential.

Organisational adaptation requirements

Transitioning to agent‑first workflows requires a shift in team mental models.

This adjustment can take time in traditionally structured engineering organisations.

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Why Google Antigravity matters for the future of software development

Google rarely introduces developer tooling without a broader strategic trajectory.

Antigravity signals a shift from intelligent text editors towards collaborative engineering environments built around autonomous agents.

This transition implies:

  • shorter development cycles
  • reduced technical friction
  • increased experimentation capacity
  • new professional engineering skill profiles

Developers who understand this shift early gain a meaningful competitive advantage.

This is particularly true in environments where continuous innovation defines technical success.

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Conclusion

Google Antigravity represents one of the first serious attempts to design an IDE from the ground up for agent‑assisted software engineering.

Rather than adding artificial intelligence to existing workflows, it redefines the relationship between developers and code.

Working within agent‑first environments enables teams to operate at higher abstraction levels, accelerate iteration cycles and reduce repetitive implementation effort.

As software engineering moves towards collaborative human‑agent systems, Antigravity is not simply another tool.

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It is an early indicator of how professional development environments are likely to evolve over the coming years.


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The SEC’s latest crypto guidance still leaves too much unsaid

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The SEC’s latest crypto guidance still leaves too much unsaid

On Tuesday, March 19, the SEC issued joint guidance with the CFTC to “finally” provide clarity about how the securities laws apply to digital assets. On many issues, including staking and meme coins, the SEC’s new guidance is a welcome development and a marked improvement from the Gensler days. It also rightly acknowledges that the agency’s “regulation by enforcement” campaign under Chair Gensler had muddied compliance obligations and stifled the industry. But in important ways, the guidance stops short of the full course correction the crypto industry needs.

The biggest shortcoming is the SEC’s articulation of the Howey test for “investment contract” securities. All agree that most digital assets are not, on their own, investment contracts. Even the Gensler SEC (eventually) admitted as much, and the SEC’s new guidance reiterates that position. The key question, though, is when a digital asset is sold as part of an investment contract such that the sale becomes subject to the securities laws.

The statute provides the answer. As a matter of text, history and common sense, an “investment contract” means a contract – an express or implied agreement between the issuer and investor under which the issuer will deliver ongoing profits in return for the purchaser’s investment. Most digital assets are not investment contracts because they are not contracts. A digital asset can be the subject of an investment contract (like any other asset), but it can still be sold separately from the investment contract without implicating the securities laws. In the suits brought by Gensler, crypto companies vigorously defended that proper interpretation of the law.

Yet the SEC’s new guidance is silent about whether an investment contract requires contractual obligations. Instead, it says an investment contract travels with a digital asset (at least temporarily) when the “facts and circumstances” show the digital-asset developer “induc[ed] an investment of money in a common enterprise with representations or promises to undertake essential managerial efforts,” leading purchasers to “reasonably expect to derive profits.” That does not clearly confirm a clean break from the SEC’s former view that Howey eschews “contract law” and demands “a flexible application of the economic reality surrounding the offer, sale and entire scheme at issue, which may include a variety of promises, undertakings and corresponding expectations.”

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The Gensler SEC’s know-it-when-I-see-it approach to Howey was deeply problematic. It allowed the agency to piece together an “investment contract” from various public statements by digital-asset developers — tweets, white papers, and other marketing materials — even absent concrete promises by the issuers. And it failed to distinguish securities from collectibles like Beanie Babies and trading cards, the value of which depends heavily on their maker’s marketing and attempts to create scarcity. The SEC missed an important opportunity to clearly reject that approach and restore a key statutory dividing line between assets and securities — a contract.

The SEC can still fix this problem, but to do so, it will need to further clarify how the agency intends to apply Howey going forward — and to finally make a clean break with Gensler’s overbroad interpretation of the securities laws. For example, the Gensler SEC repeatedly cited various “widely distributed promotional statements” as a basis for pushing a digital asset into the realm of investment contracts. The SEC’s new guidance puts some guardrails on that approach by requiring a developer’s representations or promises to be “explicit and unambiguous,” to “contain sufficient details,” and to occur before the purchase of the digital asset. But even that improved approach leaves too much room for interpretation. It could be expansively applied by private plaintiffs, the courts or a future SEC. Rather than continue down the path Gensler trod, the SEC should make clear that mere public statements affecting value are insufficient and that promises and representations must be made in the context of the specific sale at issue — not strung together from whitepapers or social-media posts that many purchasers likely never considered.

The SEC also should clarify its approach to secondary-market trading. Helpfully, the agency now recognizes that digital assets are not investment contracts “in perpetuity” just because they once were “subject to” investment contracts. But the agency also says that digital assets remain “subject to” investment contracts traded on secondary markets (like exchanges) so long as purchasers “reasonably expect” issuers’ “representations and promises to remain connected” to the asset. The SEC says little about how to assess those reasonable expectations, providing only two “non-exclusive” examples of when an investment contract “separates” from a digital asset. And it says nothing about whether a secondary-market purchaser must have a contractual relationship with the token issuer. That leaves it unclear whether the SEC has really moved on from the Gensler-era view that investment contracts “travel with” or are “embodied” by crypto tokens.

Instead of those mixed messages, the SEC should impose meaningful restraints on the application of the securities laws to secondary-market transactions by adopting Judge Analisa Torres’s approach in Ripple. Judge Torres recognized that it is unreasonable to infer an investment contract in the context of “blind bid-ask” transactions — that is, transactions where the counterparties do not know each other’s identities (as is common in secondary-market trading). Because buyers have no idea whether their money goes to a token’s issuer or to some unknown third party, they can’t reasonably expect that the seller will use the buyers’ money to generate and deliver profits. The SEC should endorse Judge Torres’s analysis expressly.

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These are not academic quibbles. The current SEC might not read or enforce its new guidance in a manner that threatens the viability of the crypto industry in the United States. But by failing to clearly reject the excesses of the Gensler era, the SEC’s new guidance leaves the industry exposed to a future SEC that could leverage ambiguities in the SEC’s current guidance to resume regulation by enforcement. Private plaintiffs could try to do the same in lawsuits against key industry players (such as the leading exchanges). And in the meantime, the SEC’s interpretations could distort the securities-law baseline during negotiations over market-structure litigation.

The SEC invited comments on its guidance, and the industry should oblige. The SEC should get credit where credit is due. But the industry should not hesitate to highlight the lingering flaws and ambiguities in the agency’s approach and advocate for clear, meaningful, and permanent restraints to ensure regulatory clarity and stability. Simply giving the legal architecture of the last enforcement campaign a facelift is not enough.

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Bitcoin (BTC) hashrate falls as miners shift capital to AI infrastructure

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BTC Hash Rate YoY (Glassnode)

For the first time in six years, the bitcoin hashrate, the total computational power securing the network, fell during the first quarter. It is currently down around 4% year to date, hovering around 1 zettahash per second (ZH/s).

Over the past five years, the rate has surged from roughly 100 exahashes per second (EH/s), a 10-fold increase, according to Glassnode data. Each year, the metric rose during the first quarter and ended with strong full-year growth in excess of 10%. In 2022, the figure almost doubled.

BTC Hash Rate YoY (Glassnode)
BTC Hashrate YoY (Glassnode)

The AI Pivot

The shift in 2026 reflects changing economics across the bitcoin mining sector. With production costs near $90,000 per bitcoin and the spot price closer to $67,000, margins are negative. In response, many publicly listed miners are switching to artificial intelligence and high-performance computing infrastructure, where returns are higher and more predictable.

This transition is being funded through debt issuance and bitcoin sales, reducing reinvestment into bitcoin mining. As a result, hashrate growth is becoming more sensitive to the cryptocurrency’s price, with weaker prices likely to trigger further declines as smaller operators exit.

While a falling hashrate may raise concerns about network security, decentralization may matter more than absolute size. Publicly listed U.S. miners have accounted for over 40% of the global hash rate, and a reduction in their influence could lead to a more geographically distributed network. In that sense, the current shift may ultimately support decentralization.

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Despite the slowdown, CoinShares still forecasts hashrate growth to around 1.8 ZH/s by the end of 2026, conditional on bitcoin recovering toward $100,000.

Read More: End of bitcoin ‘HODL’: public miners going all-in on AI, signaling more BTC selling

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Steakhouse Financial front-end breach exposes users to phishing scam

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Steakhouse Financial front-end breach exposes users to phishing scam

DeFi risk curator Steakhouse Financial has been hacked and its website and app are now being used to host a phishing scam.

Steakhouse disclosed the breach Monday morning and warned that any new users interacting with the website or app are likely interacting with a malicious version implemented by the hackers. 

The attack appears to have affected just the front-end of operations, as Steakhouse assured users, “No deposits are at risk. No contracts are affected. All Steakhouse depositors are safe.”

A statement from the official Steakhouse Financial X account.

Read more: Fake Uniswap phishing ad on Google steals trader’s life savings

“We are working to restore the frontend as soon as possible,” the firm said. 

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Steakhouse co-founder, Sébastien Derivaux, warned crypto users to avoid the website until further notice.  

Various crypto firms offered alternative services and safety assurances for customers with funds at Steakhouse. 

Others found humor in the incident, with one user asking, “Does phishing on Steakhouse make this a surf and turf attack?”

At the time of writing, neither Steakhouse Financial or its CEO have shared any further updates on the incident.

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Steakhouse Financial housing a crypto drainer

Crypto security firm Blockaid claims that the Steakhouse attackers are utilizing code from one of the “largest active wallet drainer operations onchain” known as Angelferno, or Angel Drainer.

Read more: Fears of $27M Venus Protocol hack turn out to be phishing attack on power user

Earlier this month, AI crypto firm GAIB fell victim to a social engineering scheme that gave hackers access to its domain, where they implemented a copycat website kitted with Angelferno. 

Drainers work by stealing a user’s crypto after they sign a malicious transaction that gives hackers full access to withdraw their funds.

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Blockaid was able to help GAIB detect the malware, and the malicious site was gone in roughly seven hours, with no apparent user losses. 

Got a tip? Send us an email securely via Protos Leaks. For more informed news and investigations, follow us on XBluesky, and Google News, or subscribe to our YouTube channel.

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Bitcoin Hashrate falls 6%, US bond yields up 4%: Month in charts

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Bitcoin Hashrate falls 6%, US bond yields up 4%: Month in charts

This month, Bitcoin’s hashrate fell 6% after the US and Israel attacked Iran, highlighting Iran’s significant crypto mining activity.

Bitcoin price, meanwhile, remains lackluster. Higher 4% yields on US Treasury bonds have added pressure, and investors are seeking less risky prospects amid geopolitical tension.

Less appetite for crypto trading has proven problematic for Robinhood. The trading platform’s stock is down 16% on the month, and leadership has announced a stock buyback program. 

Prediction markets marked a record number of transactions, representing a more than 2,800% increase since this time last year. 

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Here’s March by the numbers:

Bitcoin lacks momentum as 4% US Treasury bond yields put pressure on price

Yields on five-year US Treasury bonds are up 4% in March, putting pressure on Bitcoin price. While showing some gains in mid March, the asset ended the month much where it started, around $67,000.

As per an analysis from Cointelegraph, fears of a drawn-out conflict between the US and Israel against Iran have led investors to cut out risk. A sell-off in bonds, along with a nine-month high of 4% in yields, suggests that traders are building cash positions.

Bitcoin hashrate falls nearly 6% after US and Israel attack Iran

On Feb. 28, the United States and Israel launched a joint special military operation in Iran called “Operation Epic Fury.” One month later, the Bitcoin (BTC) hashrate is down almost 6%.

Bloomberg crypto and digital assets strategist Dushyant Shahrawat said in a recent interview that Iran is one of the world’s largest Bitcoin miners, accounting for some 6-8% of global hashrate, and 70% of mining activities are conducted by the military. 

Disruptions to the country’s energy infrastructure and diversion of military priorities to defense have thus hit Iran’s ability to mine Bitcoin. 

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Prediction market transaction top 192 million

Transactions on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi topped 192 million in March. That represents a 24% increase from last month and a 2,880% increase compared to the same time last year, according to Dune analytics. 

Related: Lawmakers push another bill to curb prediction market insider trading

Prediction markets are growing in popularity, but in the United States, they face state regulators who say they facilitate a form of gambling. At least 11 states have taken legal action against them.

On March 20, Carson City District Court Judge Jason Woodbury upheld a regulator’s move to temporarily ban prediction market Kalshi in Nevada. 

Arizona has brought criminal charges against Kalshi for allegedly “running an illegal gambling operation and taking bets on Arizona elections, both of which violate Arizona law.”

Other states like Utah and Pennsylvania are currently considering legislation that would bring prediction markets under state gambling or gaming laws. Kalshi says that it answers only to federal regulation under the Commodity Futures Exchange Commission (CFTC). 

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Euro-denominated stablecoins account for 85% of non-dollar volume

Stablecoins backed by the euro have emerged as a favorite alternative to assets backed by US dollars. Some 85% of non-dollar stablecoin volumes occur in euros, according to a March report from Dune.

While euro-denominated coins initially only represented some 50-70% of the non-dollar market, they began expanding significantly in 2024. Now they represent 85% of total transferred volume. Euro stablecoins are also dominant in regard to participation, with user share rising to over 78%.

Dune attributes this increase to more confidence in stablecoins among institutions, thanks in large part to the Markets in Crypto-Assets regulatory package (MiCA). 

Robinhood stock down 16% on month

Robinhood stock has decreased over 16% in March, from nearly $80 to $66 as of publishing time. 

The stock and crypto trading company’s share price has been struggling in recent months. Over the last six months, it dropped over 50%. Uncertainty over the regulation of new verticals like prediction markets and social trading, along with a collapse in crypto trading revenues are creating structural obstacles for the company.

Revenue from crypto transactions reportedly dropped 38% year-over-year as of Q4 2025. Crypto app volumes dropped 58%.

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To address the problem, Robinhood has approved a $1.5 billion share buyback program in March, which will execute over the next three years. 

Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings are 11% in the red

Amid a lackluster price action on the month, Strategy’s Bitcoin portfolio is at an 11% loss. The average cost of Bitcoin in its portfolio is $75,669. Bitcoin is trading around $67,800 at publishing time. 

Data collected March 30.

Still, the company has continued its regular Bitcoin purchases. It made two this month: one for 17,994 Bitcoin on March 9 and another for 22,337 Bitcoin on March 16, amounting to roughly $2.7 billion at publishing time.

The software company has financed most of its Bitcoin purchases through high-yield stock offerings, like Stretch (STRC). This allows the company to buy Bitcoin without diluting its MSTR common shares.

The company’s chair, Bitcoin bull Michael Saylor, said recently that 80% of STRC buyers are retail investors. “Retail investors prefer low-volatility, high-yield digital credit,” he said.

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