Market Sentiment is caused by inflation issues

The oil prices have risen due to the US-Iran conflict, which has raised risks of inflation. Energy prices have also been on the increase which places strain on the general economy. As a result, investors minimized the risk assets including cryptocurrencies.In addition, the conflict has taken a long-term stage, which reinforced the fear of prolonged inflation. This trend still has an effect on the trading behavior in different markets.

According to Jerome Powell, inflation is still one of the major concerns of policymakers. He expounded that rate reductions are pegged on evident improvements in reducing the inflation rates. Therefore, there is a possibility that the Federal Reserve can retain its current position with longer periods.Also, the recent statistics revealed that producer inflation increased to 3.4 percent prior to the escalation of the conflict. The development enhanced the expectations that the rate cuts might not occur in this year.

There is a significant change in expectations indicated by prediction market data. Zero rate cuts in this year will be increased to approximately 35 percent. As a result, traders have shifted their ground in accordance with a stiffer monetary outlook.In addition, the liquidity prospects have been curtailed by the low anticipations of rate reductions. This change has burdened crypto assets which tend to enjoy the less competitive financial terms.

International Bodies Caution on The Hitting of Energy

The international monetary fund cautioned that the increase in the price of energy would have an impact on global growth. It was asserted that oil flows have already been affected by disruptions associated with the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, the IMF mentioned that the inflation rates may go up all over the world due to sustained energy price increases.Also, the IMF said that reduced economy output can be a result of rising energy prices. Such forecasts indicate the more general effects of the current state of affairs on financial markets.Crypto markets are still under strain as inflation fears redefine the outlook of monetary policy. The increase in energy costs and the change of rate perspectives have been causing changes in investor behavior in digital assets.

Trump ramps up pressure on Powell to slash rates to 1% even as the Fed holds at 3.50%–3.75%, lifts inflation forecasts, and warns the Iran oil shock risks stagflation.

U.S. President Donald Trump renewed his public pressure campaign on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday, stating that Powell should cut interest rates — a demand that stands in direct contradiction to the Fed’s posture just 24 hours earlier, when the central bank held rates unchanged and signaled it expects only one cut for the entirety of 2026.

Trump’s statement, reported by Jinshi on Thursday, follows a pattern of escalating attacks on the Fed chair that has intensified since the Iran war began on February 28. As recently as March 12, Trump took to Truth Social to write: “Where is the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome ‘Too Late’ Powell, today? He should be dropping Interest Rates, IMMEDIATELY, not waiting for the next meeting!” The president has reportedly called for rates as low as 1%, even as soaring oil prices are pushing inflation expectations sharply higher.

Crypto markets have been trading this showdown in real time: Bitcoin has already slipped back below $70,000 after briefly tagging the mid‑$73,000s last week, while Ethereum has faded toward the low‑$2,200s as Fed funds futures price in barely a single cut for 2026 and the market starts to contemplate a “no‑cut” year. That leaves BTC caught between two narratives — a stagflation hedge if Powell caves to Trump and lets real yields fall, or just another high‑beta risk asset if the Fed digs in and higher-for-longer rates collide with an oil shock to crush liquidity across both TradFi and crypto.

The Fed voted to keep its benchmark rate in the 3.50%–3.75% range at its March 18 meeting, citing persistent uncertainty around both the Iran conflict’s economic impact and the residual effects of Trump’s 15% global tariff regime. Powell acknowledged that a rate hike remains unlikely but did not rule it out, noting that the Fed “will need to assess how enduring this situation is” in reference to the global energy crisis.

The Fed’s updated forecasts are expected to revise inflation projections upward, with many economists anticipating the central bank will now forecast inflation remaining as high as 3% by late 2026 — a level difficult to reconcile with rate cuts. Trump’s own nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Powell when his term concludes in May had been expected to usher in a more dovish era, but the Iran conflict may delay or complicate that transition.

The core tension is acute. Trump wants lower rates to stimulate a slowing economy and support financial markets battered by oil-driven uncertainty. But the Fed faces a classic stagflation dilemma: cutting rates risks entrenching oil-fueled inflation, while holding or hiking risks amplifying the demand destruction already underway as energy costs squeeze consumers and businesses.

CME FedWatch data shows markets assigning over 99% probability to no change at the current meeting, and Wall Street economists are increasingly calling for a zero-cut year. Oxford Economics chief U.S. economist Lydia Boussour noted that “given our elevated forecasts for headline and core PCE inflation, we have adjusted our baseline to reflect only one 25 basis point cut in 2026 — but it is entirely plausible the Fed won’t implement any rate cuts this year.”​

The oil shock has already erased the inflation buffer that lower energy prices had provided earlier in 2026 in the face of Trump’s tariffs. With Brent crude above $110 and Iranian strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure widening on Thursday, the Fed’s margin for maneuver is narrowing — even as Trump’s demands grow louder.

Cryptocurrency exchange Bybit has launched a yield-bearing tokenized gold product that lets users earn interest on Tether Gold (XAUT), the latest entrant into a broader push to turn traditionally non-yielding assets into income-generating instruments.

The product is designed to convert tokenized gold — typically a passive store of value — into a yield-bearing asset using XAUT, the largest tokenized gold product, the company announced Thursday. It allows holders to earn passive income while maintaining exposure to gold prices.

Bybit said the offering is part of its broader expansion into tokenized real-world assets (RWAs), as it moves beyond traditional crypto trading products.

While earning yield on tokenized assets is not new, extending the model to gold is gaining traction across the industry, highlighting efforts to further financialize real-world assets on blockchain rails.

Earlier this week, tokenization platform Theo unveiled a $100 million structured investment facility backing its gold-linked, yield-bearing stablecoin, thUSD. The model involves purchasing tokenized gold while hedging price risk by shorting gold futures, aiming to generate returns from financing and derivatives market spreads rather than outright price moves.

Related: Tether expands support for USDT, Tether Gold in Opera’s MiniPay wallet

Gold sees extreme volatility after hitting record highs

After an historic rally that pushed gold prices above $5,500 per troy ounce, the yellow metal has experienced sharp volatility in recent months, reflecting a shifting macro backdrop.

Although gold is widely viewed as a hedge against risk, particularly during geopolitical shocks such as $100-a-barrel oil and the ongoing Iran war, prices have fallen by roughly $1,000 from their peak. The decline comes as investors dial back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, while rising real yields and a stronger US dollar weigh on the metal.

Analysts also point to crowded positioning. In January, as bullion was nearing its peak, Bank of America’s global fund manager survey identified long gold as the most crowded trade in markets.

Gold’s premium relative to its long-term trend also reached its highest level since 1980, according to Bloomberg.

Nevertheless, tokenized commodities continue to gain traction. Cointelegraph reported that the market surpassed $6 billion in February, driven largely by gold’s historic rally.

Related: Tokenized gold drives weekend price signals while CME futures are closed