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HBAR Price Faces a 30% Crash Risk as ETFs Remain Absent

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HBAR Price Faces a 30% Crash Risk as ETFs Remain Absent

HBAR price remains under heavy pressure as the broader crypto market stays weak. The token is down nearly 47% over the past three months and has slipped another 6% in the past 24 hours, tracking Bitcoin’s latest decline. More importantly, this is not just a short-term sell-off. Hedera’s price has been falling steadily since September, losing almost 67% from its highs.

Behind this move is a deeper problem: shrinking network liquidity, weak institutional demand, and fading retail participation. As TVL continues to fall and ETF inflows remain absent, charts now suggest that HBAR could face another major downside leg. Here is what the data is showing.

Hedera’s TVL Collapse Shows Liquidity Has Been Leaving for Months

HBAR’s downtrend began in mid-September, when the price started trading against a falling trendline. Soon, the weakening prices entered a falling channel as lower highs met lower lows. Since then, every rally has been weaker, and each breakdown has pushed the token lower.

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HBAR Price Weakens: TradingView

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

This HBAR price action mirrors what happened to Hedera’s on-chain liquidity.

Total value locked was near $122.5 million in September. It has now dropped to around $56 million, a decline of more than 50%. TVL measures how much capital is locked inside DeFi protocols. When TVL falls, it usually means users are withdrawing funds and activity is slowing.

TVL Degrowth
TVL Degrowth: Defillama

In simple terms, money started leaving the network months ago. The price just followed this fundamental weakness. This explains why HBAR’s decline looks gradual rather than sudden. Liquidity has been drying up steadily. Without fresh capital, rallies fail quickly.

As long as TVL stays weak, HBAR’s upside remains structurally limited.

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CMF Shows Selective Buying, But ETF and Retail Demand Remain Weak

Not all signals are bearish.

The Chaikin Money Flow has been rising since mid-December, even as the price moved lower. This creates a bullish divergence, showing that some larger investors are accumulating. However, CMF is still below zero. Outflows still dominate. Inflows are improving, but not strongly enough.

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Capital Flows Survive The Dip: TradingView

At the same time, spot HBAR ETFs have shown no recent inflows over the past two weeks. ETFs bring institutional capital and could help CMF move above the zero line. Their absence limits upside momentum.

HBAR ETFs
HBAR ETFs: SoSo Value

The bigger warning comes from On-Balance Volume. OBV has been trending lower since October. This showed that participation and conviction were steadily weakening even during short-term bounces. Recently, OBV broke below this descending support line.

When OBV loses long-term support, it signals that selling pressure is accelerating and that market participation is deteriorating. It suggests that fewer buyers are stepping in, even at lower prices.

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Retail Conviction Breaks Down
Retail Conviction Breaks Down: TradingView

So the current setup looks like this:

  • Some large buyers are accumulating slowly (CMF divergence)
  • Institutional flows remain weak (ETF inactivity)
  • Broader participation is shrinking (OBV breakdown)

Without strong volume support, rallies lack follow-through. This explains why HBAR continues to fail at resistance despite occasional inflow signals.

Until OBV stabilizes and ETF demand improves, upside moves are likely to remain fragile.

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Falling Channel and OBV Breakdown Point to a 30% Risk Zone

The Hedera Price structure confirms this fragile setup.

HBAR remains trapped inside a falling channel that has guided price lower since September, with a breakdown projection of around 30% if the lower trendline breaks.

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The first major support sits near $0.080-$0.076. This zone has been in place since the October 10 crash. A daily close below it would weaken the structure. Below that, the next support lies near $0.062, based on Fibonacci extensions to the downside.

HBAR Price Analysis
HBAR Price Analysis: TradingView

If this level breaks, the channel projection points toward $0.043, opening the 30% breakdown path. On the upside, recovery remains difficult.

HBAR must first reclaim $0.107. A move above $0.134 is needed to break the bearish channel. But that likely requires:

  • A sustained TVL rebound
  • Consistent ETF inflows

Without both, any HBAR price bounce attempt may fade quickly.

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Crypto World

Crypto market recap: What happened today?

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Crypto market recap: What happened today?

The crypto market saw several important developments today, including a warning from Hong Kong authorities about cryptocurrency scams, a new filing from Grayscale for a crypto-based ETF, and progress on the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Here’s a quick overview of the major events.

Summary

  • Hong Kong senior lost HK$6.6M in three crypto scams involving fake experts.
  • Grayscale files for HYPE ETF, offering exposure to Hyperliquid’s token.
  • US lawmakers near agreement to regulate stablecoin yield to protect banks.

Hong Kong police warn after senior man falls victim to scams

Hong Kong’s Police Cyber Crime Bureau issued a warning today after a 66-year-old retired man lost HK$6.6 million to three separate cryptocurrency scams. According to reports, the elderly victim was first contacted in September 2025 by a fraudster claiming to be a cryptocurrency expert. The scammer convinced the victim to invest, promising guaranteed profits. The man transferred HK$1.4 million to the fraudster, only to realize later that he had been tricked.

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Undeterred, the victim sought help from another fraudster posing as an expert to recover his losses. However, after paying a deposit of 600,000 yuan, the second fraudster also disappeared. In January of this year, the victim was once again approached by a scammer claiming to recover the previous losses. This time, the fraudster instructed the victim to purchase cryptocurrency worth 4.6 million yuan, which the victim did. Once again, the scammer vanished, leaving the man without his entire life savings.

Grayscale files for HYPE ETF linked to Hyperliquid token

In other news, Grayscale filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to launch an exchange-traded fund (ETF) tied to Hyperliquid’s native token, HYPE. The proposed Grayscale HYPE ETF, if approved, would allow investors to gain exposure to the token’s price movement without holding the token directly.

Hyperliquid is a blockchain platform focused on decentralized perpetual futures trading. The proposed ETF would initially track the price of HYPE, with the potential for staking to be added later. Grayscale’s move adds to a growing list of firms exploring investment products tied to newer digital assets like HYPE, as interest in crypto ETFs continues to expand beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.

U.S. lawmakers work on stablecoin yield agreement

Meanwhile, in the United States, progress on the CLARITY Act is moving forward. Reports suggest that lawmakers are close to a tentative agreement on stablecoin yield, a key issue that has slowed the progress of the cryptocurrency market structure bill earlier this year.

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The proposed agreement would address concerns over stablecoin yield and its potential impact on bank deposits. If passed, the legislation could regulate how stablecoin issuers offer yield to their holders. The deal aims to protect innovation while limiting the risk of deposit flight from the banking system. It could be a significant step forward in regulating digital assets and stabilizing the U.S. crypto market.

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Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Drops 7.7% in Biggest Cut Since February

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Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Drops 7.7% in Biggest Cut Since February

Bitcoin’s mining difficulty fell by around 7.7% at the latest adjustment on March 20 to 133.79 trillion at block 941,472, the sharpest drop since February, according to CoinWarz data.

The latest move takes difficulty down from around 145 trillion in mid-March and roughly 148 trillion at the start of the year. A lower difficulty means it takes less computational work to earn the same block reward, slightly improving revenue per unit of hashrate for firms that stay online.

The adjustment followed slower-than-target block production over the prior 2,016 blocks. CloverPool data showed average block times at about 12 minutes 36 seconds, well above Bitcoin’s 10-minute target, forcing the network to recalibrate lower.

In February, difficulty dropped sharply after weather-related disruptions in the United States temporarily knocked large American mining facilities offline, and it later rebounded by about 15% as hashrate returned to the network once power conditions normalized. 

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Bitcoin (BTC) difficulty measures how hard it is for miners to find a valid hash for the next block and is automatically adjusted to keep issuance steady at one block every 10 minutes.

When more computing power, or hashrate, joins the network, difficulty rises to prevent blocks from being mined too quickly, while a decline in hashrate triggers a lower difficulty, making it easier for remaining miners to earn rewards. 

Bitcoin difficulty drops 7.7%. Source: CoinWarz

Related: Cango reports $285M Q4 loss as Bitcoin mining costs surge in 2025

The next difficulty adjustment is currently estimated for April 3, though that projection changes with each new block.

Miners pivot to AI as power costs bite

The difficulty reset also comes as several listed miners push further into AI and high-performance computing infrastructure in search of steadier returns on power and data-center capacity.

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Last week, crypto trader Ran Neuner argued AI had become Bitcoin mining’s biggest competitor as both industries compete for electricity, even going as far as to say that “AI has killed Bitcoin forever.” 

Bitcoin miners such as Core Scientific, MARA Holdings, Hut 8 and Cipher Mining have begun reallocating capacity or pivoting toward AI workloads, while some operators have reduced hashrate or shut down less efficient rigs as profitability tightens.

On Feb 21, Bitdeer liquidated 943 BTC from reserves and sold newly mined coins, cutting corporate holdings to zero. In its latest weekly update on March 21, it confirmed that its BTC holdings remained at zero.

Big questions: Would Bitcoin survive a 10-year power outage?

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