Bloomberg Intelligence macro strategist Mike McGlone said Monday that collapsing crypto prices may signal broader financial stress, warning bitcoin could revert toward $10,000 and potentially foreshadow the next U.S. recession.

In a post on X, McGlone also said the long-standing “buy the dip” mentality that has supported risk assets since 2008 could be breaking down as digital assets weaken and volatility dynamics shift.

After climbing back to $70,841 by 07:00 UTC on Feb. 15 from $65,395 late on Feb. 12, bitcoin was hovering around $68,800 by mid-morning. The broader crypto market was also in the red Monday, with 85 of the top 100 tokens posting losses. Privacy-focused coins monero and zcash were down 10% and 8%, respectively over the past 24 hours.

“Healthy Correction is what we should hear soon from stock market analysts (who risk unemployment if not onboard), following collapsing cryptos,” McGlone wrote. “The buy the dips mantra since 2008 may be over.”

McGlone pointed to several macro indicators that reflect elevated risk conditions. U.S. stock market capitalization relative to gross domestic product (GDP) has reached its highest level in roughly a century, he noted. At the same time, 180-day volatility in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 is at its lowest level in about eight years, McGlone added.

He also described the “crypto bubble” as “imploding,” adding that “Trump euphoria” has peaked and is contributing to contagion across markets. Meanwhile, gold and silver are “grabbing alpha” at a pace last seen about half a century ago, with rising volatility that he said could “trickle up” into equities.

McGlone shared a chart comparing bitcoin divided by 10 for scaling, with the S&P 500. As of Feb. 13, both were hovering below 7,000 on his graphic. He said that “volatile and beta-dependent” bitcoin is unlikely to stay above that level if broader equity beta weakens.

The Bloomberg analyst identified 5,600 on the S&P 500, equivalent to roughly $56,000 for bitcoin under his scaling, as an initial “normal reversion” level. Beyond that, part of his base case calls for bitcoin to revert toward $10,000, contingent on a peak in the U.S. stock market.

McGlone’s outlook splits opinion

Jason Fernandes, co-founder of AdLunam and a market analyst, told CoinDesk that McGlone’s thesis assumes market extremes must resolve through collapse and that bitcoin’s equity beta guarantees a proportional crash.

“That’s false equivalence and single-path bias,” Fernandes said. “Markets can also resolve excess through time, rotation, or inflation erosion. A macro slowdown could mean consolidation or a $40,000 to $50,000 reset, not a systemic unwind to $10,000.”

Fernandes added that a move toward $10,000 would likely require a true systemic event, including sharp liquidity contraction, widening credit spreads, forced deleveraging across funds and a disorderly equity drawdown.

“That implies recession plus financial stress, not just slower growth,” he said. “Absent a credit shock or policy mistake that drains global liquidity, that kind of collapse remains a low-probability tail risk.”

• Digital asset investment products saw outflows of over $173 million last week.
• Bitcoin and Ethereum recorded the most outflows amid broader price weakness.
• Solana and XRP maintained their inflow momentum despite the overall downturn.

Digital asset investment products recorded another week of outflows, extending the capital flight to four weeks.

As has been the case throughout the bearish phase, Bitcoin and Ethereum led the negative trend, with investor caution amid market volatility and the overriding sentiment key catalysts.

However, CoinShares reports that Solana and XRP notched inflows despite recent price declines.

Crypto ETP outflows extend to four weeks

According to James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, digital asset investment products saw a fourth consecutive week of outflows totalling $173 million for the period to February 13, 2026.

The redemptions bring the cumulative four-week run to over $3.7 billion, Butterfill wrote in a weekly report published on Monday.

CoinShares notes that the week started positively with inflows of $575 million on Monday, Feb. 9, 2026.

However, that flipped red as risk assets sold off, pushing $853 million from crypto exchange-traded products by mid-week.

That dip coincided with fresh price weakness across major cryptocurrencies, a scenario that intensified as BTC touched new lows around $60k.

Gains for stocks and cryptocurrencies nonetheless saw sentiment flip slightly bullish on the latest CPI data release.

According to Butterfill, the market recorded $105 million in inflows on Friday.

Yet, net flows remained negative for the week. ETP trading volumes dropped sharply to $27 billion from a record $63 billion the previous week.

Analysts note that this pattern reflects the overall profit-taking and risk-aversion environment.

A look at regional distribution suggests US-based products continue to bear the brunt of the outflows.

Solana and XRP defy outflows trend

Although BTC and ETH led the way in terms of volumes of outflows this past week, a few altcoins showed resilience.

The market saw strong institutional interest in Solana and XRP even as prices faced pressure.

Over the past week, XRP ETFs and other digital asset investment products drew $33.4 million, while Solana attracted more than $31 million.

Both altcoins build on last week’s figures of roughly $48.5 million for SOL and $62.9 million for XRP, according to CoinShares data.

Elsewhere, the oracle network Chainlink (LINK) also saw inflows, albeit a modest $1.1 million.

Butterfill says the inflows reflect bullish sentiment on key coins, a factor that points to investor confidence in selective altcoin markets.

Bitcoin and Ethereum lead ETP weekly outflows

Bitcoin experienced the harshest weekly outflows as bears showcased their strength.

Data shows investors pulled over $133 million from various BTC-tied products.

Uncertainty meant even short Bitcoin investment products added to the overall pressure, recording outflows totaling $15.4 million over the past two weeks.

The same outlook hit Ethereum, which saw more than $85 million in outflows amid waning investor appetite.

Identity today sits at the center of nearly every digital interaction, including onboarding customers, approving transactions, accessing services, and ensuring compliance. Yet most identity systems enterprises rely on were designed for a different era.

They are centralized, fragmented, and vulnerable. With the digital ecosystems expanding, their weaknesses are becoming harder to ignore. Data breaches, identity fraud, duplicate identities, and verification delays are no longer occasional problems; they are recurring business risks.

It is exactly the reason why enterprises are actively exploring blockchain identity management solutions as a structural upgrade, not a technological experiment. The reason behind this is that identity is no longer just an IT concern. It is a business-critical asset.

What’s Broken in Traditional Identity Systems

Many organizations still operate with legacy identity frameworks built on siloed databases and third-party verifiers. These models introduce several vulnerabilities.

Centralized Data Silos

Traditional identity systems store sensitive user data in centralized repositories. These become prime targets for cyberattacks. One breach can expose millions of identities, damaging trust and triggering regulatory consequences. For enterprises, this means financial loss, reputational damage, and compliance scrutiny.

Repetitive Verification Processes

Users often verify their identity multiple times across services. This creates:

• Poor user experience
• Higher onboarding costs
• Longer verification cycles

Enterprises lose conversions when onboarding feels slow or intrusive.

Limited User Control

In most traditional systems, organizations control identity data, not users. This, in turn, increases privacy concerns and reduces transparency. Modern consumers increasingly expect control over how their data is used.

Fraud & Identity Theft

Centralized databases make identity manipulation easier. Synthetic identity fraud and credential theft continue to rise globally. For enterprises, this directly impacts fraud management costs and regulatory risk.

Compliance Complexity

Regulations such as KYC, AML, GDPR, and data localization laws require strict identity handling. Managing compliance across jurisdictions becomes complex and costly.

Identity as a Revenue Enabler, Not Just a Security Layer

Traditionally, identity systems were viewed as compliance & security necessities and cost centers rather than value drivers. However, blockchain identity management solutions change that perspective. With verifiable, user-controlled identity frameworks, organizations can unlock:

• Faster customer onboarding
• Reduced KYC friction
• Cross-platform identity reuse
• Lower fraud-related losses
• Personalized digital services

This, in turn, plays a significant role in transforming identity from a back-end obligation into a front-end business enabler.

For instance, fintech platforms can onboard users in minutes instead of days. Healthcare systems can share verified credentials without repeated paperwork. Marketplaces can reduce fake accounts and chargebacks.

In other words, strong identity infrastructure improves revenue efficiency, not just security. Forward-looking enterprises now treat digital identity as part of their growth stack, not just their compliance stack.

How Blockchain Identity Management Changes the Model

Blockchain introduces a decentralized and tamper-resistant identity framework. Instead of relying on a single authority, identity verification becomes distributed, secure, and verifiable.

Decentralized Identity Storage

Data is not stored in one central database. Instead, blockchain enables distributed identity references with cryptographic security. This plays a significant role in reducing breach risk. Even if one node is compromised, the system remains secure.

Self-Sovereign Identity (SSI)

Users have complete control over their identity credentials. They decide what to share and with whom. Enterprises verify credentials without storing excessive personal data, which readily improves privacy compliance and builds user trust.

Tamper-Proof Records

Blockchain records cannot be altered retroactively. Verification history remains fully transparent and reliable, thereby reducing the chances of fraud and simplifying the overall audit process.

Faster Verification

Reusable credentials allow verified identities to be shared across platforms. This helps accelerate the onboarding process while lowering operational costs.

Smart Compliance

Blockchain can embed compliance logic into identity flows. KYC or AML checks can be verified instantly through trusted credentials, reducing repetitive checks.

Real Business Value for Enterprises

Blockchain identity management solutions are not just about security upgrades. They drive measurable business benefits.

Reduced Fraud Losses

Tamper-resistant identity systems lower fraud risk and prevent duplicate identities.

Faster Customer Onboarding

Streamlined verification reduces drop-offs and improves conversion rates.

Lower Compliance Costs

Automated verification reduces manual review and regulatory complexity.

Stronger User Trust

Privacy-centric identity models resonate with modern consumers.

Trust translates to retention.

Interoperable Identity Ecosystems

Identity credentials can work across partners, platforms, and regions, enabling collaboration.

Where Do Enterprises Need to Be Careful?

Adopting blockchain identity requires strategic planning. Here are a few of the most common mistakes committed by enterprises:

• Over-engineering early stages
• Ignoring regulatory nuance
• Poor integration with legacy systems
• Focusing on tech instead of user experience

Identity management transformation should be phased and goal-driven, which is exactly where enterprises need to be cautious. 

Why Choosing the Right Digital Identity Solutions Provider Matters

A full-scale blockchain identity management solution touches:

• Security architecture
• Compliance frameworks
• User experience design
• Infrastructure scalability
• Integration layers

Enterprises should understand that it is not a plug-and-play deployment. A capable digital identity solutions provider understands regulatory environments, enterprise infrastructure, and decentralized identity frameworks. Moreover, it is essential to note that poorly designed identity systems create friction rather than trust.

Final Thoughts

Traditional identity systems are showing structural cracks in a digital-first world. On the other hand, blockchain identity management solutions offer a path toward secure, user-centric, and scalable identity ecosystems.

Enterprises adopting it are not just fixing loopholes; they are future-proofing their digital interactions. Antier, as a trusted digital identity solutions provider, works with organizations to design and implement blockchain-based identity systems that align with security, compliance, & user expectations. It is because in the digital economy, trust begins with identity. 

XRP Ledger now holds most tokenized U.S. Treasury supply, but trading and settlement still favor Ethereum and layer-2 networks, leaving XRPL’s role in flux.

Two recent developments have positioned XRPL as a potential venue for real-world asset tokenization. Aviva Investors announced a partnership with Ripple to tokenize traditional fund structures on the ledger, describing the initiative as a multi-year project. The asset manager characterized tokenization as transitioning from experimental phases to large-scale production over the next decade.

Additionally, OpenEden’s TBILL token, a vault token backed by short-dated U.S. Treasuries with 1:1 backing, maintains a majority of its circulating supply on XRPL, according to data from RWA.xyz.

However, transfer volume data reveals limited on-chain activity for TBILL on XRPL compared to Ethereum and certain layer-2 networks, according to the same dataset. The pattern suggests tokens are being issued and held on XRPL but moved and utilized on other blockchain networks.

Tokenized U.S. Treasuries refer to tokenized fund shares or vault tokens backed by short-dated U.S. government securities, held and transferred on blockchain networks. The sector has grown as institutional investors explore blockchain-based settlement infrastructure.

The Aviva-Ripple partnership focuses on tokenizing traditional fund structures rather than exclusively Treasury bills, according to the announcement. The companies have not yet launched a live tokenized fund product with a prospectus and eligible investor base.

XRPL has emphasized built-in compliance tools and near-instant settlement capabilities in its positioning to institutional clients, according to public statements from Ripple and partner firms. The approach targets regulated distribution channels rather than decentralized finance composability.

Stablecoin transfer activity on XRPL has grown in parallel with tokenized Treasury initiatives, according to on-chain metrics. The combination of stablecoins for settlement and Treasury tokens for yield represents a potential operational model for institutional users.

Ethereum and layer-2 networks currently maintain more developed on-chain liquidity infrastructure for tokenized assets, according to market participants. Tokenized Treasuries on those networks can be swapped against stablecoins and routed through institutional market makers at larger scale.

The tokenized Treasury market is evolving toward use cases in collateral and settlement workflows within the broader financial system, according to industry analysts. Institutions building lending and settlement flows have generally defaulted to networks with existing collateral infrastructure and liquidity depth.

The next 30 to 90 days could provide clearer signals on XRPL’s trajectory in the tokenized Treasury market, according to market observers. Key indicators include whether transfer volumes for Treasury tokens on XRPL rise materially to match balance concentrations, whether additional regulated issuers launch products on the network, and whether Aviva progresses from partnership intention to a live tokenized fund with measurable holder counts.

Current data shows XRPL holds significant token supply and growing stablecoin activity, while trading and transfer volumes remain concentrated on Ethereum and layer-2 networks, according to blockchain analytics platforms.

Digital asset venture capital company Animoca Brands has won regulatory approval in Dubai.

Animoca has been granted a Virtual Asset Service Provider (VASP) license from the Emirate’s regulatory authority for the digital asset industry, the firm announced via email on Monday.

The Hong Kong-headquartered company, which won in-principle approval as a regulated fund manager in Abu Dhabi in November, said the license allows it to commence operations in Dubai, offering broker-dealer services and digital asset management and investments.

Dubai established its Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) in 2022 to oversee the licensing and operation of cryptocurrency and crypto-adjacent companies, and has since been central to the Emirate’s growth into a digital asset hub. Prominent exchanges such as Binance and OKX have also won regulatory approval there.

Animoca, which filed to list on the Nasdaq in the U.S. through a reverse merger late last year, manages a portfolio of over 600 blockchain investments and offers institutional services such as crypto treasury management and digital asset infrastructure.

Ethereum’s most recent price action reflects a temporary slowdown in momentum. After the aggressive decline toward the lower demand region, the market has entered a fluctuation phase, with minor bullish retracements attempting to stabilize the structure. The price is currently compressing within key technical boundaries, suggesting that a decisive move is approaching.

Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, ETH is moving in a consolidation phase following its sharp drop into the $1,800–$1,850 demand zone. The recent candles show minor bullish retracements, but these moves lack strong impulsive characteristics and appear corrective in nature.

Technically, the asset is confined between the $1.8K static support and the descending channel’s middle boundary, which is acting as dynamic resistance around the $2,500–$2,600 region. As long as Ethereum remains trapped between these two levels, the market structure reflects a fluctuation state rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

A valid breakout above the channel’s midline resistance would be required to shift short-term momentum in favor of buyers. Conversely, a breakdown below the $1,800 support would expose lower demand zones and likely reintroduce strong selling pressure.

ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart

Zooming into the 4-hour timeframe, the price action reveals the formation of a tightening triangle pattern after the rebound from the $1,800 low. The structure shows converging trendlines, reflecting decreasing volatility and a balance between buyers and sellers.

Ethereum is now trading near the apex of this narrow range, indicating that a breakout is imminent. A bullish breakout above the upper boundary of the triangle could trigger a push toward the $2,300–$2,400 region as the next short-term resistance. On the other hand, a bearish breakdown below the ascending support of the triangle would likely lead to a renewed test of the $1,800 demand zone.

Overall, the market is in compression mode on the lower timeframe, and the next impulsive move will likely determine the short-term direction.

Sentiment Analysis

From an on-chain perspective, the Coinbase Premium Index has remained predominantly negative, indicating relatively weak demand from US-based investors and a lack of aggressive spot buying on Coinbase compared to other exchanges. This persistent negative reading aligns with the broader corrective structure observed on the charts.

However, the index has recently experienced a noticeable upward surge. Although it is still below the neutral threshold, the intensity of the rebound suggests that selling pressure from US participants may be easing. If this upward momentum continues and the index crosses into positive territory, turning green, it would signal renewed spot demand from US investors.

Such a shift could act as a catalyst for a bullish rebound, particularly if it coincides with a technical breakout from the current triangle formation. In that scenario, both technical structure and on-chain demand would align in favor of a stronger recovery phase.

The crypto industry and investors are awaiting the completion of the US CLARITY Act, which has been delayed amid partisan politics and industry concerns.

The bill would rewrite the rules of the road for the crypto industry, from which agency oversees it to regulations for decentralized finance (DeFi).

Currently, lawmakers in the US Senate are hammering out the details, with significant points of contention. Democrats want a bipartisan bill with ethics provisions and a bailout prohibition that Republicans roundly rejected.

The crypto industry itself has taken issue with some of the provisions. Namely, Coinbase, the largest crypto exchange in the US, doesn’t want a bill that prevents it from offering stablecoin yields. The US bank lobby opposes such yields, saying they threaten deposits and the stability of the financial system.

The bill has gone through several iterations. Here’s a look at how far it’s come:

May 2025: CLARITY comes to Washington

House Committee on Financial Services Chairman French Hill first introduced the CLARITY Act on May 29, 2025.

The goal of the bill, according to the committee, was to establish “clear, functional requirements for digital asset market participants, prioritizing consumer protection while fostering innovation.”

The committee said the bill was needed for several reasons, mainly that digital assets represented the next step in digital financial innovation and that the regulatory status quo was stifling possibilities.

June-July 2025: House passes crypto bill

The House of Representatives moved with uncharacteristic speed on the CLARITY Act. In June, the bill moved through markup sessions in the House committees on agriculture and financial services and was placed on the calendar for a vote on the floor by June 23.

On July 17, the House of Representatives passed the bill, 294-134. The vote found more support among Republicans. Some 216 Republicans supported the bill, none opposed, while four abstained from voting.

There was some bipartisan support: 78 Democrats joined in voting “Yay,” while most of them, 134 Democratic Representatives, voted “Nay.” No Democrats abstained from voting.

With the vote, the bill moved to the upper house, the US Senate, where it has since been under debate.

July-September 2025: Senate starts work

The Senate quickly got underway with work on CLARITY. On July 22, Republican leaders on the US Senate Banking Committee released a draft version of the bill.

The discussion draft would “establish clear distinctions between digital asset securities and commodities, modernize our regulatory framework, and position the United States as the global leader in digital asset innovation.”

Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott was optimistic about the Senate moving just as quickly as the House, giving an initial deadline of Sept. 30, 2025.

October-December 2025: Senators at odds during government shutdown

Democrats on the Senate Banking Committee, including noted cryptocurrency skeptic Senator Elizabeth Warren, were opposed to several parts of the discussion draft.

Warren took issue with how taxes would be treated under the law, saying in a statement that “proposals to clarify crypto’s tax treatment could ultimately give crypto an unfair advantage over other financial products.”

She also said that the proposals “make it harder to track what’s happening in crypto transactions if they are being used for illegal purposes.”

Senate Democrats also came up with their own proposals on how the bill would regulate DeFi. According to partners at Skadden Arps Slate Meagher & Flom, these DeFi rules sought to “leverage existing regulatory frameworks to create a crypto market structure and show Congress’ instinct to retrofit the current system rather than design one built for crypto.”

This was diametrically opposed to Republicans’ and the crypto industry’s vision, which was to create a new, bespoke system for the digital asset industry.

On Nov. 11, 2025, the Senate Agricultural Committee released its own discussion draft of CLARITY. The draft noted that lawmakers were still discussing the idea of which federal agency, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) or the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC), would regulate the industry.

Further hindering progress was the US federal government shutdown from Oct. 1 to Nov. 12 — the longest in history after the previous one that occurred in President Donald Trump’s first term. It only ended after a small group of Senate Democrats voted with Republicans to pass a resolution to temporarily fund the government.

December 2025-January 2026: Markup session, crypto industry gets impatient

Senator Cynthia Lummis predicted in the autumn that the crypto framework law would reach Trump’s desk by New Year’s Eve. As the year 2025 drew to a close, this seemed less likely.

On Dec. 19, the White House’s crypto and AI czar, David Sacks, said that, after a meeting with top senators working on CLARITY, there would be a markup session in January.

However, the planned markup session in the Senate Banking Committee was postponed amid substantive disagreements about the bill from the crypto industry lobby and the banking industry.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said they couldn’t support the bill due to its provisions banning interest-bearing stablecoins, as well as positioning the SEC as the main crypto industry regulator.

Related: US crypto market structure bill in limbo as industry pulls support

The move reportedly infuriated the White House, which was eager to complete work on the framework law.

Other financial bigwigs like David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, agreed with Armstrong, saying that the bill “has a long way to go.”

Work on the law did not stop completely. The Senate Agriculture Committee announced that it would have its own markup session on Jan. 27. Committee Democrats attempted to make amendments to the bill, including an ethics provision banning Congress from trading crypto, as well as ruling out any possibility of the government bailing out crypto.

These votes failed along party lines, and the Republican majority advanced the bill to the Senate floor.

February 2026: High-level talks at the White House, political maneuvers

Crypto industry executives, lawmakers and bankers are now meeting frequently at the White House and in the halls of Congress to figure out a solution to their differences. The Digital Chamber of Commerce said that a meeting on Feb. 3 focused on stablecoin yields.

These talks have continued. On Tuesday, more executives, including Ripple chief legal officer Stuart Alderoty, met for what was a “productive session.”

“Clear, bipartisan momentum remains behind sensible crypto market structure legislation. We should move now — while the window is still open,” he said.

Still, there’s been no deal. Delays have reportedly led to nearly $1 billion in outflows from the crypto market, according to data from CoinShares. Some observers believe that the delays are ultimately good in the long run, as it gives the industry a chance to bargain for more favorable terms.

Market analyst Michaël van de Poppe said, “I think if the bill were approved in its current form, it would have had a very bad impact on the markets in general. So, now, all the parties are aligned to continue the discussion. It reminds me a lot of the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulations in Europe.”

Many are eager to seal the deal before the midterm elections. The crypto lobby has been building its political machine through donations to political action committees (PACs). Both Republican and Democratic members of Congress are reportedly eager to pass something favorable before the 2026 campaign cycle begins and crypto PACs decide who to support.

Related: Crypto PACs secure massive war chests ahead of US midterms

Crypto’s strong support in the Republican Party could also prove a liability as the party loses popularity. Midterm elections historically go against the sitting president’s party, and in one year, the crypto lobby could be stuck with a lame-duck president and lukewarm support among a Democrat majority.

The success of CLARITY could end up being a race against the clock.

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