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How Will Markets React to $4.3B Crypto Options Expiring Today

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How Will Markets React to $4.3B Crypto Options Expiring Today


It is the end of another week, which means another batch of Bitcoin and crypto options contracts is expiring, while spot markets remain sideways.

Around 39,000 Bitcoin options contracts will expire on Friday, Dec. 12, and they have a notional value of roughly $3.6 billion.

This expiry event is pretty much the same as last week’s, which had no impact on spot markets. The US Federal Reserve dropped rates by a quarter percent this week in a move that was largely priced in by markets, hence the lack of reaction.

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Bitcoin Options Expiry

This week’s batch of Bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 1.1, meaning that the shorts slightly outnumber the longs. Max pain is around $90,000, according to Coinglass.

Open interest (OI), or the value or number of Bitcoin options contracts yet to expire, is highest at $100,000, which has $2.7 billion at this strike price on Deribit. There remains around $2 billion in OI at $80k and $85k targeted by short sellers.

Total BTC options OI across all exchanges is at $54.6 billion, according to Coinglass. Bitcoin positioning is tightly centered around the $90,000 level, reported Deribit.

“Call and put interest sit in near balance, suggesting traders expect a contained expiry after the recent range-bound tape. The clustering around 90K reflects a market waiting for the next catalyst rather than leaning into directional conviction.”

Crypto derivatives provider Greeks Live expressed caution following this week’s rate cut. “Calling this a QE reboot or the start of a new bull market is premature,” they stated.

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“With Christmas and year-end settlement approaching, this period historically marks the weakest liquidity conditions in crypto. Market activity tends to be subdued, limiting the near-term momentum for any sustained rally.”

In addition to today’s batch of Bitcoin options, around 247,000 Ethereum contracts are also expiring, with a notional value of $768 million, max pain at $3,100, and a put/call ratio of 1.24. Total ETH options OI across all exchanges is around $12 billion.

“Positioning has shifted into a more neutral distribution, yet call concentration hints that traders remain willing to price in larger ETH moves if volatility reawakens,” said Deribit.

This brings Friday’s combined crypto options expiry notional value to around $4.3 billion.

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Spot Market Outlook

Markets have been mostly flat with a slight tick up in total capitalization over the past few hours, as it reached $3.2 trillion.

Bitcoin topped $93,000 again, but hit resistance again, and fell back to the $92,000 level during early trading in Asia on Friday.

Ether prices have traded in a tight range around the $3,200 level over the past day. Meanwhile, the altcoins were mostly sideways with minor gains for Solana, Bitcoin Cash, and privacy coins Monero and Zcash.

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