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How Will Nvidia Stock React to $30 Billion OpenAI Deal?

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How Will Nvidia Stock React to $30 Billion OpenAI Deal?

Nvidia is close to finalizing a $30 billion investment in OpenAI, replacing an earlier plan for a massive $100 billion multi-year partnership. 

According to Financial Times, the deal would be part of OpenAI’s latest funding round, which could value the company at roughly $830 billion. OpenAI is expected to reinvest much of that capital into AI infrastructure, including Nvidia’s GPUs.

The shift from a $100 billion commitment to a smaller $30 billion equity investment changes the financial risk profile. 

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Instead of funding massive infrastructure directly, Nvidia gains ownership exposure while still securing demand for its hardware. This restructuring has drawn close attention from investors already watching Nvidia’s volatile stock movements.

Nvidia Stock Price Over the Past Week. Source: Google Finance

From Six-Week Lows to Strategic Rebound: Nvidia’s Volatile Month

Nvidia’s stock has moved sharply over the past several weeks. In early February, shares fell to around $177, marking a six-week low. 

The decline followed uncertainty over the original $100 billion OpenAI deal, concerns over US export restrictions on AI chips to China, and broader investor worries about the sustainability of AI spending.

However, the stock rebounded after Nvidia announced a smaller investment commitment, new partnerships, and major chip supply deals. 

Top 10 US AI Stocks. Source: INDmoney

A multi-year agreement to supply millions of AI chips to Meta also helped restore confidence. By mid-February, Nvidia shares recovered toward the high-$180 range.

Still, volatility persisted. Investors remained cautious about regulatory risks, high valuation levels, and whether AI infrastructure spending could deliver sustained returns.

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Nvidia Commits to a Much Smaller Deal With OpenAI, But it Has a  Bigger Signal

The latest $30 billion investment is widely seen as strategically bullish for Nvidia. First, it removes the financial burden of the original $100 billion plan, which could have strained Nvidia’s balance sheet. 

Second, it strengthens Nvidia’s position as OpenAI’s primary hardware partner.

This means Nvidia benefits in two ways. It gains equity exposure to one of the world’s most valuable AI companies while continuing to sell the chips powering OpenAI’s models.

However, short-term reactions may remain mixed. Large investments always carry risk, and some investors prefer Nvidia to focus purely on chip sales. 

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Still, the deal reinforces a key point: AI infrastructure spending continues to accelerate.

Ultimately, the investment strengthens Nvidia’s long-term outlook. It confirms that Nvidia remains at the center of the global AI boom, even as markets navigate short-term uncertainty.

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Epstein eyed Coinbase, XRP, XLM, Circle in pre-mainstream crypto era

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Epstein eyed Coinbase, XRP, XLM, Circle in pre-mainstream crypto era

Epstein’s 2010s emails show Gensler talks, XRP/XLM bets, CBDC and stablecoin funding links.

Summary

  • 2018 emails show Epstein sought crypto talks with Gensler and briefed Summers on early digital currency discussions.
  • Records cite about $3m into Coinbase plus speculative exposure to XRP, XLM, Circle and early stablecoin structures tied to Brock Pierce.
  • Reports mention funding for MIT-linked CBDC pilots and private crypto ventures as crypto policy circles were still nascent.

Newly released documents from the Jeffrey Epstein case contain references to communications involving cryptocurrency policy discussions and Gary Gensler, according to reports published this week.

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The documents include emails dated 2018 that reportedly mention conversations between Epstein and individuals connected to policy and academic circles in the cryptocurrency sector. Gensler, who later served as Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission, appears among the names referenced in the materials.

According to the reports, the files contain correspondence suggesting Epstein discussed arranging a meeting with Gensler regarding cryptocurrency topics. Emails from 2018 indicate Epstein told former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers that Gensler had arrived early for crypto-related discussions, according to the documents. Summers reportedly responded that he knew Gensler and considered him intelligent.

No documents released to date have established a direct connection between Epstein and any specific cryptocurrency decision or project, according to available reports. However, records suggest Epstein invested millions in early cryptocurrency ventures, including approximately $3 million in Coinbase in 2014, reports stated.

Some emails reportedly referenced XRP and Stellar, leading to speculation about possible investments in those projects, though the documents do not provide clear confirmation, according to observers.

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Additional claims in the reports suggest Epstein provided funding for U.S. central bank digital currency pilot programs through MIT and certain Federal Reserve Banks. Gensler taught at MIT during that period and worked in academic policy circles before entering government service and participating in the development of U.S. cryptocurrency regulation.

Reports also indicate Epstein explored early stablecoin-related investments, including Circle, through connections associated with Brock Pierce. Pierce reportedly requested Epstein’s assistance in connecting with Lawrence Summers, according to accounts of the correspondence.

The documents suggest Epstein maintained investments in private cryptocurrency ventures while maintaining relationships with academic and policy circles involved in digital currency regulation, according to analysts reviewing the materials. The timing of these connections has drawn attention as they occurred before cryptocurrency markets achieved mainstream adoption.

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Tight Bitcoin Bollinger Bands Signal Big Move: Analyst

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Cryptocurrencies, Retail, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Liquidity

A key volatility indicator for Bitcoin (BTC) has narrowed to its tightest measurement on record, a pattern that was followed by a multimonth rally in previous bull and bear markets. Will the Bollinger Bands indicator call the market bottom again?

Record Bitcoin Bollinger Band compression hints at volatility

Analyzing the monthly Bitcoin chart, crypto analyst Dorkchicken noted that BTC’s Bollinger Bands are currently at their “tightest” level on record. Such conditions have repeatedly led to bullish breakouts, with the only prior downtrend from similar conditions occurring in 2022, during the drop to $16,000 from $20,000.

Cryptocurrencies, Retail, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Liquidity
Bitcoin Bollinger Bands analysis. Source: Dorkchicken/X

Bollinger Bands measure price volatility, and extreme compression often leads to a sharp expansion. The analyst added that there are higher odds of an upside trend once expansion begins.

On the contrary, Bitcoin trader Nunya Bizniz pointed to an approaching 50- and 200-period simple moving average (SMA) death cross on the three-day chart. A death cross occurs when the shorter-term moving average falls below the longer-term average, signaling weak price momentum. 

Across the past three instances, the pattern marked drawdowns of about 50% over the following one to six months and aligned closely with final cycle capitulation phases.

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Cryptocurrencies, Retail, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Liquidity
Bitcoin death cross on the three-day chart. Source: Nunya Bizniz/X

A similar path may imply a potential bottom between March and August near $33,000. The trader also said that BTC has spent 110 days below its short-term holder cost basis of $89,800. During previous cycle lows, the price typically remained under that level for nearly 200 days on average. 

Market analyst Ardi also noted that the long futures exposure from retail traders has increased on each dip to $68,000 from $88,000. Currently, 72% of tracked retail accounts are long into a descending trendline. 

While this reflects early signs of market optimism, each recent surge in long positioning has been followed by a sharp sell-off. With positioning once again elevated, these longs remain vulnerable to liquidation, increasing the risk of a liquidity hunt if the price moves lower.

Cryptocurrencies, Retail, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Liquidity
Bitcoin analysis by Ardi. Source: X

Related: Bitcoin ‘roadmap to bottom’ says $58.7K Binance cost basis now crucial

BTC’s Sharpe ratio is interesting, but $70,000 remains the level to crack

Crypto analyst MorenoDV said that Bitcoin’s short-term Sharpe ratio has dropped to -38.38, matching levels last seen in 2015, 2019 and late 2022. 

The Sharpe ratio measures the risk-adjusted return, and deeply negative readings mark periods of deep drawdown and volatility. Each extremely low ratio signal has aligned closely with the major cycle lows, leading to strong BTC rallies, with the analyst noting that the current price range may be a “generational buy zone.” 

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Cryptocurrencies, Retail, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Liquidity
Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio. Source: CryptoQuant

Glassnode data calls for confirmation through a stronger BTC demand absorption. Since early February, each move above the $70,000 level has stalled as the net realized profits exceeded $5 million per hour.

Glassnode added that in Q3 2025, profit-taking between $200 million to $350 million per hour did not interrupt the advance to new highs in Q4. 

Cryptocurrencies, Retail, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Liquidity
BTC net realized Profit/Loss (24hr). Source: Glassnode

Related: ‘Resilient’ Bitcoin holders defend BTC, but bear floor sits 20% lower: Glassnode