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Crypto World

Illicit Stablecoins Reach 5-Year High at $141B in 2025, TRM Labs

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Crypto Breaking News

New data from blockchain analytics firm TRM Labs shows illicit actors moved roughly $141 billion through stablecoins in 2025—the highest annual tally in five years. The report, issued this week, cautions that the uptick does not signal a broad acceleration in crypto-enabled crime, but rather a deeper reliance on stablecoins for activity where speed, liquidity, and cross-border movement offer clear operational advantages. The analysis highlights sanctions-linked networks and large-money-movement services as the dominant channels for these flows, underscoring how stablecoins have become a preferred rails for moving value outside traditional financial controls.

According to the TRM study, sanctions-related activity accounted for a staggering 86% of all illicit crypto flows in 2025. Of the $141 billion in stablecoin activity, roughly half—about $72 billion—was tied specifically to a ruble-pegged token known as A7A5, whose operations are almost entirely concentrated within sanctioned ecosystems. The institutional emphasis on these tokens points to a striking trend: stablecoins are not merely a tool for everyday commerce but a specialized infrastructure supporting state-linked evasion and enforcement-evading finance.

Beyond the A7A5 concentration, the report notes that Russian-linked networks intersect with other state-backed ecosystems, including actors connected to China, Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela. In TRM’s words, these findings illuminate how stablecoins have evolved into connective infrastructure for sanctioned actors seeking to move value outside conventional financial controls. This interlocking web raises questions for regulators and financial institutions about how to monitor cross-border flows that ride the rails of stablecoins—even when the majority of legitimate activity remains robust and mainstream.

On the demand side, the report draws attention to the way illicit marketplaces deploy stablecoins in perimeter markets. While scams, ransomware, and hacking still occur, those activities tend to stage their crypto use in multiple steps, often beginning with Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) or other crypto assets, before shifting to stablecoins later in the laundering sequence. The research also identifies categories such as illicit goods and services and human trafficking as showing “near-total stablecoin usage,” suggesting operators prioritize payment certainty and liquidity over potential price appreciation. In practical terms, this means stablecoins provide predictable settlement rails that are less sensitive to price volatility, a feature that illicit networks value highly when moving funds across jurisdictions.

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Volume in guarantee marketplaces—digital platforms that facilitate risk-sharing or settlement for illicit services—surged to more than $17 billion by late 2025, with most activity denominated in stablecoins. TRM argues that because roughly 99% of this volume is settled in stablecoins, these platforms function more as laundering infrastructure than speculative venues. The implication is that stablecoins have become a preferred vehicle for moving large sums with speed and liquidity, even if much of the activity occurs outside legitimate markets. The report also notes that the role of stablecoins in such ecosystems is not a sign of crypto’s inherent criminality, but rather a signal about the ways illicit actors adapt to enforcement regimes and capital controls.

Corroborating the broader picture, Chainalysis has previously highlighted a rise in crypto flows to suspected human trafficking networks, reporting an 85% year-over-year increase in 2025. In that analysis, international escort services and prostitution networks were noted to operate almost entirely on stablecoins, reflecting demand for payment certainty in illicit networks as well as a preference for cross-border liquidity. These findings reinforce the TRM Labs assessment that stablecoins serve as the backbone of value transfer for several high-risk activities, even as the sector as a whole remains far larger and more diverse than illicit use patterns would suggest.

From the perspective of scale, TRM Labs observed that total stablecoin activity exceeded $1 trillion in monthly transaction volume on multiple occasions in 2025. By extrapolating from these monthly bursts, the study estimates approximately $12 trillion in annual stablecoin activity, implying illicit use accounts for around 1% of the total. That proportion stands alongside global estimates from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, which place money laundering at roughly 2% to 5% of global GDP—an amount roughly in the $800 billion to $2 trillion range. The juxtaposition of these figures underscores a persistent tension: stablecoins are pervasive in legitimate finance while simultaneously enabling sophisticated illicit networks that regulators continue to scrutinize. The findings come amid ongoing policy discussions about how best to balance innovation with robust compliance and risk controls, particularly as sanctions regimes evolve and enforcement benchmarks tighten.

In context, the TRM report adds momentum to a broader industry debate about how to enforce sanctions and combat illicit finance without stifling legitimate use. The intertwining of sanctioned actors with state-linked and non-state networks, as described by TRM, points to the need for enhanced on-chain analytics, cross-border collaboration, and more granular controls on stablecoin issuance and settlement. While the vast majority of stablecoin activity remains legitimate, the visibility of the illicit segment—especially in high-value sanctions-related flows—signals that both policymakers and market participants should pay closer attention to the liquidity and settlement rails that crypto ecosystems have become. The report’s findings are a reminder that, for good or bad, stablecoins occupy a central role in modern finance, shaping how value moves across borders even as regulators adapt to a rapidly evolving digital landscape.

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Why it matters

The TRM Labs findings illuminate a nuanced reality for crypto markets and policymakers. Stablecoins have matured into a core settlement layer that supports everyday commerce but also serves as a critical infrastructure for illicit finance during sanctions crises. For cryptocurrency exchanges, wallet providers, and fintechs, the report underscores the importance of implementing robust sanctions screening and address-level risk assessments, especially for counterparties with ties to sanctioned economies or gray-market corridors. The concentration of illicit activity in a handful of stablecoins also highlights the need for precise tagging, traceability, and real-time monitoring to deter misuse while preserving legitimate liquidity and cross-border payments.

For regulators, the data underscore the limits of traditional financial controls when confronted with borderless digital rails. The stability and speed of stablecoins offer undeniable advantages for legitimate commerce, remittances, and cross-border trade, but they also create friction for enforcement. The TRM analysis reinforces calls for clearer stablecoin‑related disclosure, standardized compliance frameworks, and international cooperation to address sanctions evasion without inadvertently curbing innovation. Investors and builders can glean that the risk landscape remains dynamic: reputational and regulatory risk around stablecoins can shift rapidly as enforcement priorities evolve and new tools emerge to monitor on-chain behavior.

For users and the broader market, the message is twofold. First, illicit use represents a relatively small share of overall stablecoin activity, but its visibility matters because it intersects with sanctions policy and macroeconomic stability. Second, the events of 2025 demonstrate how quickly stablecoin liquidity can be redirected toward restricted channels when governance gaps or enforcement actions fail to keep pace with innovation. The ongoing dialogue between analytics firms, policymakers, and industry participants will shape how stablecoins evolve—from mere payment rails to potential risk vectors requiring more rigorous risk management and governance standards.

What to watch next

  • Further methodology updates and breakdowns from TRM Labs detailing which stablecoins and sanction-related corridors dominate illicit flows.
  • Regulatory responses and enforcement actions tied to sanctioned networks identified in the report, including cross-border cooperation and sanctions-compliance initiatives.
  • Monitoring of stablecoin issuance and circulation patterns as policymakers consider stricter controls or new compliance requirements for issuers and custodians.
  • Ongoing research from Chainalysis and other firms on the role of stablecoins in human trafficking networks to assess whether new tracking tools reduce illicit activity over time.
  • Regulatory developments related to sanctions packages and related crypto-exposure rules in jurisdictions highlighted by the report.

Sources & verification

  • TRM Labs, Stablecoins at Scale: Broad Adoption and Highly Concentrated Illicit Networks (official blog)
  • Sanctions-related activity accounted for 86% of illicit crypto flows in 2025 (Cointelegraph article)
  • Russia-linked networks and the EU sanctions package context (Cointelegraph article)
  • Tether challenges report on illicit activity involving USDT (Cointelegraph article)
  • Chainalysis report on crypto use in human trafficking networks
  • UNODC money laundering overview

Illicit stablecoins: sanctions networks and laundering rails

Illicit actors moved an estimated $141 billion through stablecoins in 2025, reflecting a shift in how sanctioned operations leverage digital rails to bypass traditional financial controls. In the study’s framing, sanctions-related activity dominates the illicit crypto landscape, signaling that enforcement regimes are shaping the channels through which criminal actors move funds. The data show a pronounced concentration around a ruble-pegged stablecoin known as A7A5, with about $72 billion of the total tied to this single asset. This clustering hints at a specialized ecosystem where asset choice aligns with the operational requirements of sanctioned networks, rather than with speculative profit-seeking behavior.

Within this ecosystem, the report highlights networks that blur geographic boundaries—Russia-linked actors intersecting with spheres connected to China, Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela. The analysis underscores how stablecoins have become connective fabric for sanctioned actors seeking to move value beyond conventional controls, reinforcing stability in cross-border transfers while complicating enforcement. In parallel, the data point to a broader pattern: illicit activity in the realm of sanctions and large-scale money movement dominates the illicit use of stablecoins, even as other categories rely increasingly on these digital rails for liquidity and certainty of settlement.

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On legitimate terms, stablecoins continue to support a wide range of uses, including remittance and cross-border payments, with total stablecoin activity surpassing $1 trillion in monthly volume on multiple occasions in 2025. If one projects the annual scale, the figure nears $12 trillion, of which the illicit portion—ranging around 1%—belongs to highly regulated, high-risk activity tied to sanctions and related networks. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime’s own estimates place global money laundering at 2%–5% of GDP, which aligns with the broader recognition that illicit finance persists at scale despite improvements in detection and policing. These numbers collectively illustrate a crypto environment that is large, interconnected, and continually adjusting to enforcement pressures and policy shifts.

The picture is nuanced: the same rails that power legitimate payments and global commerce also offer resilience and speed that illicit actors have learned to exploit. As policymakers and market participants absorb these insights, the path forward involves targeted improvements in monitoring, reporting, and cross-border information sharing to mitigate risk without stifling the legitimate benefits of stablecoins. The ongoing dialogue among analytics firms, regulators, and the crypto industry will shape the contours of stablecoin adoption in the years ahead, balancing innovation with the imperative of robust AML/CFT controls.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Crypto World

Price Predictions for BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, SOL, DOGE, HYPE, ADA, BCH, LINK

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Price Predictions for BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, SOL, DOGE, HYPE, ADA, BCH, LINK

Key points:

  • Buyers are attempting to maintain BTC above the $66,500 level, but several analysts believe that the $60,000 level may crack.

  • Some major altcoins risk breaking below their immediate support levels, signaling that bears remain in control.

Buyers are attempting to push and maintain Bitcoin (BTC) above the $66,500 level, but are facing stiff resistance from the bears. Although recovery attempts are being sold into, the BTC supply in profit and loss metric suggests that BTC may be close to a bottom.

CryptoQuant analyst “Darkfost” said that there are currently about 8.2 million BTC in loss, compared to roughly 10.6 million BTC during the previous bear market. That suggests the market is at a comparable level of undervaluation seen during the previous bear phase.

However, not everyone believes that a bottom is in. Chartered Market Technician Aksel Kibar said in a post on X that BTC may sink to $52,500 if its developing bearish pattern breaks down.

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Crypto market data daily view. Source: TradingView

During bear phases, select analysts turn overly negative and forecast gloom and doom for the markets.

One such projection is from Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone, who said in a post on X that BTC may collapse to $10,000. Contrary to that opinion, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood said in an interview with CNBC that BTC will not see 85-95% collapses from its all-time high.

Could BTC and select major altcoins hold above their support levels? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

Bitcoin price prediction

BTC turned down from the moving averages on Thursday, and the bears are attempting to strengthen their position by pulling the price below the support line.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

If they succeed, the bullish ascending triangle setup will be invalidated. That may force the aggressive bulls to close their positions. The BTC/USDT pair may then slump to the crucial $62,500 to $60,000 support zone.

The first sign of strength will be a close above the moving averages. That opens the doors for a rally to $72,000 and then to $76,000. A close above $76,000 will complete the ascending triangle pattern, propelling the pair toward $84,000.

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Ether price prediction

Ether (ETH) failed to rise above the $2,200 resistance on Wednesday, indicating that the bears are aggressively defending the level.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The flat moving averages and the relative strength index (RSI) just below the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears. That suggests the ETH/USDT pair may swing between $2,200 and $1,916 for some time.

Buyers will have to push and maintain the ETH price above the $2,200 level to gain the upper hand. If they do that, the pair may climb to $2,400 and thereafter to $2,600. On the downside, a close below $1,916 might sink the pair to the critical $1,750 support.

BNB price prediction

BNB (BNB) turned down from the moving averages on Wednesday and dropped to the solid support at $570.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The downsloping 20-day exponential moving average ($620) and the RSI near the oversold territory signal that the path of least resistance is to the downside. If the $570 support breaks down, the BNB/USDT pair may resume the downtrend to $500.

This negative view will be invalidated in the near term if the BNB price turns up and breaks above the moving averages. That suggests the pair may continue to oscillate between $570 and $687 for a few more days.

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XRP price prediction

XRP (XRP) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($1.36) on Thursday, and the bears are striving to pull the price below the $1.27 support.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

If they manage to do that, the XRP/USDT pair may plummet to the Feb. 6 low of $1.11. This is a vital support for the bulls to defend, as a close below it may extend the decline to the support line of the descending channel pattern near $1.

Buyers are likely to have other plans. They will attempt to drive the XRP price above the moving averages, clearing the path for a recovery to the $1.61 level and then to the downtrend line.

Solana price prediction

Solana (SOL) has reached the support of the $76 to $95 range, indicating that the bears continue to exert pressure.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Buyers are expected to aggressively defend the $76 level, but the relief rally is likely to face selling at the moving averages. If the SOL price turns down from the current level or the moving averages and breaks below $76, it signals that the bears are back in the driver’s seat. There is support at $67, but if the level cracks, the next stop may be $50.

Contrarily, if the SOL/USDT pair turns up and breaks above the moving averages, it signals that the range-bound action may continue for a while longer.

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Dogecoin price prediction

Dogecoin (DOGE) is getting squeezed between the moving averages and the $0.09 support, signaling a potential range expansion in the short term.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

A close below the $0.09 support indicates that the bears are back in command. That may intensify selling and sink the DOGE/USDT pair to the Feb. 6 low of $0.08. Buyers will attempt to defend the $0.08 level, but if the bears prevail, the DOGE price may plunge to $0.06.

On the upside, a close above the moving averages suggests that the buyers have overpowered the bears. The pair may ascend to $0.10 and later to the stiff $0.12 resistance.

Hyperliquid price prediction

Hyperliquid (HYPE) is attempting to bounce off the 50-day simple moving average ($34.16), but the relief rally is expected to face selling at higher levels.

HYPE/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($37.10) has started to turn down, and the RSI has slipped into the negative zone, signaling that the bulls are losing their grip. If the HYPE price turns down and breaks below the 50-day SMA, the pullback may reach the $29.42 level.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it suggests that the bulls remain in control. The HYPE/USDT pair may march to $41.59 and subsequently to $43.76.

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Related: Here’s what happened in crypto today

Cardano price prediction

Sellers have maintained Cardano (ADA) below the $0.25 resistance but have failed to pull the price below the $0.23 level.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($0.25) is sloping down gradually, and the RSI is in the negative territory, indicating a slight edge to the bears. If the ADA price turns down from the 20-day EMA and breaks below $0.23, it suggests that the bulls have given up. The ADA/USDT pair may drop to $0.22 and later to the support line near $0.18.

Conversely, if buyers propel the price above the moving averages, it suggests that the selling pressure is reducing. The pair may rally to the downtrend line, which is a vital resistance for the bears to defend.

Bitcoin Cash price prediction

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has dropped to the $443 level, which is a critical support for the bulls to defend.

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BCH/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Any bounce off the $443 level is expected to face selling at the moving averages. If the BCH price turns down sharply from the moving averages, it increases the likelihood of a drop below the $443 level. If that happens, the BCH/USDT pair will complete a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. The pair may then tumble to the $375 level.

On the contrary, a close above the $486 level suggests that the bulls are back in the game. The pair may then jump to the $520 to $540 zone.

Chainlink price prediction

Chainlink (LINK) has been trading between the $8 and $10 level, indicating a balance between supply and demand.

LINK/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

If buyers thrust the price above the moving averages, the LINK/USDT pair may rise to the $10 resistance. Sellers are expected to defend the $10 level, as a close above it may propel the LINK price to $10.94 and then to $11.61.

Alternatively, if the price turns down from the moving averages and breaks below the $8 level, it signals that the bears have seized control. The pair may collapse to $7.15 and then to the $6 level.