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Is Bitcoin’s Bear Market Ending or Just Getting Worse?

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Is Bitcoin’s Bear Market Ending or Just Getting Worse?

Bitcoin surged sharply this week, briefly nearing $70,000 before pulling back. The move sparked debate across the market: has Bitcoin finally bottomed, or is this just another relief rally inside a broader bear phase?

Multiple on-chain, derivatives, and institutional indicators show early signs of stabilization. However, key signals still point to a fragile recovery rather than a confirmed bullish reversal.

Bitcoin Surges Nearly 7%. Source: CoinGecko

Options Market Shows Fragile Conditions, Not Strong Support

Bitcoin’s options positioning recently shifted into what traders call a negative gamma regime, according to Glassnode’s GEX heatmap.

In simple terms, gamma measures how options market makers hedge risk. When Bitcoin sits in a negative gamma zone, dealer hedging tends to amplify price moves. 

That means rallies can accelerate quickly—but so can selloffs.

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Bitcoin GEX Strike Heatmap. Source: Glassnode

The heatmap also shows fewer strong resistance “gamma walls” above current prices. This creates less friction for upward moves, which helps explain Bitcoin’s sudden surge. 

However, it also means the market lacks structural stability. 

Without strong hedging support, price moves remain fragile and prone to reversal.

Bitcoin Spot Demand Is Improving for the First Time in Months

CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin’s apparent demand, which measures net accumulation versus new supply, has turned positive for the first time since November.

This is an important early signal. When demand exceeds supply, it suggests buyers are stepping in and absorbing coins from sellers.

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However, one positive shift does not confirm a full reversal. During past bear markets, temporary demand increases often occurred before further consolidation. 

A sustained trend of rising demand over several weeks would provide stronger confirmation.

Short-Term Holders Are Still Selling at Losses

Another key indicator comes from CryptoQuant’s short-term holder profit and loss data, which tracks whether newer investors are selling at gains or losses.

The data shows short-term holders have been selling at losses consistently since late January. Several major loss spikes occurred in early February and again recently.

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Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Data. Source: CryptoQuant

This pattern is known as capitulation, where weaker investors exit the market. Capitulation is common near market bottoms, because stronger buyers absorb those losses.

However, the signal has not fully reversed. 

Until short-term holders begin selling at profits again, analysts warn that rallies can become “exit liquidity,” where trapped investors sell into strength rather than holding.

Technical and Historical Data Suggest Selling Pressure Is Easing

Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI), a momentum indicator, recently recovered after reaching extremely oversold levels in early February. This suggests selling pressure has weakened.

Historically, such RSI recoveries often lead to short-term rebounds.

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Bitcoin RSI Recovers After Hitting Extreme Oversold Levels on February 5. Source: TradingView

Quarterly performance data also shows Bitcoin rarely experiences multiple consecutive quarters of heavy losses. 

While this pattern does not guarantee a bottom, it supports the view that the market may be entering a stabilization phase.

Institutional Flows Still Show Weakness

Institutional positioning remains a key concern. Earlier data showed Bitcoin ETFs experienced sustained outflows, and SEC filings revealed large investment advisors and hedge funds reduced exposure significantly in late 2025.

This suggests institutional demand has not fully returned. Strong bull markets typically require consistent inflows from large investors.

Early Bottoming Signs, But Bull Market Not Confirmed

Bitcoin is showing several early bottoming signals. Spot demand is improving, capitulation appears to be getting absorbed, and technical indicators suggest selling pressure is fading.

However, key confirmation signals are still missing.

Short-term holders remain in loss territory, institutional flows remain weak, and options market structure shows fragile conditions.

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For now, Bitcoin’s rally appears more consistent with a relief bounce than a confirmed bull reversal. 

A sustained recovery will likely require stronger demand, renewed institutional inflows, and price stability above key resistance levels.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Community Weighs Reports of Hormuz Oil Tanker Fees Payable in BTC

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Dollar, Iran, Stablecoin, Bitcoin Adoption

The Bitcoin (BTC) community is discussing the feasibility and implications of the Iranian government accepting BTC for tolls paid by oil tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane through which about 20% of the global oil supply passes. 

The reactions were sparked by a Financial Times report, published on Wednesday, which said that the Iranian government was considering BTC payments for oil tolls to avoid sanctions imposed by the United States.

Several conflicting reports have been published since the Financial Times article, which suggest that the tolls are payable in stablecoins or Chinese yuan, according to Alex Thorn, the head of firmwide research at crypto investment firm Galaxy. 

Dollar, Iran, Stablecoin, Bitcoin Adoption
A map of the Strait of Hormuz. Source: Encyclopedia Britannica

BTC advocate Justin Bechler said that stablecoins can be frozen by the issuer and cited the compliance controls introduced in the GENIUS stablecoin regulatory framework as reasons why the Iranian government would not collect tolls in US-dollar stablecoins. He said:

“USDT and USDC include built-in blacklist functions at the smart contract level. When an address is flagged, the issuer can freeze the tokens, rendering them completely illiquid. The law’s enforcement depends entirely on the compliance of issuers.

Bitcoin has no issuer, no compliance officer to pressure, and no freeze function. Iran’s pivot toward Bitcoin follows directly from this structural reality,” he added. 

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If the Iranian government begins accepting BTC for oil tanker payments, it would boost Bitcoin’s credibility as a neutral settlement layer for international transactions, advocates say.

Dollar, Iran, Stablecoin, Bitcoin Adoption
Source: Jack Mallers

Related: Crypto Biz: Will Bitcoin secure safe passage through the Hormuz Strait?

Iran would likely use QR codes to collect BTC payments

Thorn estimated that each oil tanker would need to pay between $200,000 and $2 million in tolls to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

The initial reporting from the Financial Times cited a spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union, who said that ships would have a “few seconds” to complete payment in BTC.

This suggests that ships would pay via the Lightning Network, a layer-2 payment solution for BTC that allows parties to send transactions in seconds, rather than waiting for the 10-minute block confirmation.

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However, the largest known transaction over the Lightning network to date has been for $1 million, Thorn said. 

“More likely, the Iranian authorities would provide a QR code or alphanumeric Bitcoin address to the ships upon approval of their requests to pass through the Strait,” he added.

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