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Is Cardano on the Verge of a Further Dump?

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ADA RSI


A new drop or a major rally: what comes next for ADA?

Cardano’s ADA has been struggling lately, with its price nosediving to a five-year low at the start of February.

While bulls might be eager to see a decisive revival in the short term, the recent actions of the large investors suggest another move south could be on the way.

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The Whales Know Something We Don’t?

The renowned analyst Ali Martinez revealed that Cardano whales have dumped approximately 190 million ADA in the past week. The USD equivalent of that stash is roughly $50 million (calculated at ongoing rates of $0.26 per coin).

Seven days ago, the total possessions of this cohort of investors were 13.57 billion ADA, whereas they currently hold around 13.38 billion tokens. The figure represents approximately 36.3% of the asset’s circulating supply.

There is a general assumption in the crypto space that whales are experienced investors who may have inside information about important upcoming events that could influence their buying or selling decisions. That said, their recent actions could spread panic across the community and prompt smaller players to cash out as well.

The purely economic impact is also worth noting. Large sell-offs increase the amount of ADA on the open market, which, combined with non-increasing demand, should lead to a price pullback.

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ADA’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is another bearish factor investors should be wary of. The indicator shows whether the asset is overbought or oversold based on recent price momentum. It ranges from 0 to 100 and helps traders identify when a trend may be about to end.

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Readings above 70 signal that ADA has entered overbought territory and could be on the verge of a correction, while ratios below 30 favor a bullish scenario. As of this writing, the RSI stands at around 74.

ADA RSIADA RSI
ADA RSI, Source: RSI Hunter

History to Repeat Itself?

ADA is among the cryptocurrencies with vast communities, which consist of proponents and bullish analysts. Just a few days ago, X user Aman noted that the asset’s price has dropped to the demand zone of around $0.26, reminding that in the past this area has sparked major reversals.

Mentor shared a similar viewpoint, arguing that the last time ADA reached current levels, it later rose to nearly $1.40 in less than a month. “History is going to repeat itself soon,” they projected.

Over the last few months, ADA’s exchange netflows have been predominantly negative, which reinforces the optimistic predictions. The trend reflects investors moving coins from centralized platforms to self-custody, reducing the likelihood of short-term selling.

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ADA Exchange NetflowADA Exchange Netflow
ADA Exchange Netflow, Source: CoinGlass
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CLSK sold one of its highest proportions of mined BTC during February.

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Bitcoin (BTC) mining stocks rallied in January despite softer BTC prices: JPMorgan

CleanSpark (CLSK), a U.S.-based bitcoin mining company that operates large-scale data centers, sold almost all the bitcoin it produced last month to generate cash for an expansion into artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC).

The Nasdaq-listed miner produced 568 BTC in February and sold 553 BTC, roughly 97%, according to its latest operational update. The sales generated about $36.65 million in proceeds at an average price of $66,279 per bitcoin, one of the highest production-to-sales ratios the company has reported.

The sale reflects a broader trend among bitcoin miners pivoting toward AI and HPC, with companies increasingly selling either new production or reducing their balance-sheet holdings to help fund new data center and infrastructure development.

CleanSpark still maintains a sizable treasury. As of Feb. 28, it held 13,363 BTC, with 1,086 BTC pledged as collateral or recorded as receivables related to derivative transactions.

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Operationally, the company continues to scale its mining platform. CleanSpark reported 50 EH/s of operational hashrate, roughly 7 percent of the global network’s computing power.

The company also closed on a second Texas campus, adding 300 megawatts of ERCOT approved capacity and bringing its total contracted power portfolio to 1.8 gigawatts.

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ETH Rally Toward $2.5K Held Back By Macro, War, DApp Use

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ETH Rally Toward $2.5K Held Back By Macro, War, DApp Use

Key takeaways:

  • ETH derivatives signal a shift to safety as professional desks hedge against downside risks and global instability.

  • Institutional preference for decentralization keeps Ethereum dominant despite its recent drop in network activity.

Ether (ETH) price dropped by 6% following a brief rally to $2,200 on Wednesday, tracking a downturn in US equities as the war in Iran entered its sixth day. Disruptions to global oil production and Middle East natural gas shipping pushed WTI crude prices to levels not seen since July 2024.

Investors lowered their economic growth outlook as the conflict escalated and moved to a risk-off posture. 

Traders’ sentiment was further pressured as the Trump administration faced a legal setback on its import tariffs. A Federal court on Monday rejected a Justice Department request to pause the case for 90 days, effectively striking down the administration’s use of emergency powers for trade levies.

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Ether remains caught in this macroeconomic crossfire, which has stifled momentum despite a 22% recovery from the $1,800 retest on Feb. 24. Onchain data and derivatives markets currently reflect significant apathy from bulls.

ETH 30-day futures annualized premium (basis rate). Source: Laevitas.ch

The ETH 30-day futures annualized premium sits well below the 5% neutral threshold, signaling a lack of demand for bullish leverage. However, this metric is weighed down by the fact that ETH trades 58% below its August 2025 all-time high of $4,956. To gauge whether professional desks anticipate further downside, one must analyze the options market.

When whales and market makers seek protection against price drops, the ETH options skew (put-call) typically rises above the 6% neutral mark. Extreme market stress can push this indicator past 15%.

ETH 30-day options skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: Laevitas.ch

The ETH options skew reached 7% on Thursday after briefly touching neutral levels a day prior. This persistent skepticism among professional traders provides bears with the necessary leverage to fuel further uncertainty. Beyond external macro pressures, including US private credit losses and rising corporate layoffs, Ether continues to face its own idiosyncratic headwinds.

Ethereum is positioned to capture the pickup in DApps demand

Ethereum network activity has stagnated following a modest rally in early February. Consistent demand for blockchain utility remains essential for sustainable ETH price action and reducing inflationary pressure. The built-in burn mechanism of Ethereum depends on competition to enter the validation queue, a process typically fueled by decentralized exchange (DEX) activity.

Weekly DEX volumes and Ethereum DApps revenues, USD. Source: DefiLlama

Weekly DEX volumes on the Ethereum network recently hit $12.6 billion, falling from $20.2 billion one month prior. Decentralized application (DApp) revenues dropped to $14.1 million over seven days, marking a 47% decline from the previous month. Competing blockchains have seen a similar trend, as DEX volumes on Solana also decreased by 50% over the same 30-day window.

Related: Bitcoin trader sees ‘lower soon’ as BTC price starts to erase $74K breakout

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Despite the weak onchain metrics, ETH is well-positioned to capture an eventual pickup in DApp activity due to its dominance in total value locked (TVL). When including layer-2 scaling solutions, the Ethereum ecosystem accounts for nearly 65% of the total blockchain market TVL.

Related: 38% of altcoins near all-time lows, worse than FTX crash–Analyst

Total Value Locked (TVL) market share. Source: DefiLlama

The Ethereum base layer holds $55.4 billion in TVL, while its leading competitor Solana, accounts for $6.8 billion. This gap serves as evidence of a preference among institutional investors for decentralization over the lower fees and faster user experiences offered by networks like Solana and BNB Chain.

The current weakness in Ether derivatives and onchain metrics does not necessarily signal an imminent price crash. Market sentiment can shift quickly toward a sustained bullish momentum if ETH reclaims the $2,400 level. For the moment, the Ether price remains closely tied to the broader risk-off sentiment, which reduces the odds of a sustainable bullish momentum.