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JPMorgan cuts Coinbase (COIN) price target to $290 ahead of earnings

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JPMorgan cuts Coinbase (COIN) price target to $290 ahead of earnings

The crypto market downturn has been particularly hard on leading American exchange Coinbase (COIN), which has seen its stock plunge more than 50% since bitcoin’s early October record above $126,000, including a 27% decline in 2026 alone.

Attempting to catch up to that fast tumble, JPMorgan’s Ken Worthington slashed his price target on COIN to $290 from $399 ahead of the company’s fourth quarter earnings report coming after the close on Thursday.

Worthington remains a bull on the stock and his reduced target still suggests 75% upside from COIN’s current price of $1655.

Worthington projects adjusted EBITDA of $734 million, down from $801 million in the third quarter. That would mark a sharp drop from prior quarters, driven mainly by lower trading volumes, weaker crypto prices and slower growth in USDC stablecoin balances, he said.

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Worthington estimates spot crypto trading volume of $263 billion for the quarter. He also pointed to lower USDC in circulation, modeling stablecoin-related revenue of $312 million. Those headwinds were partially offset by a full quarter of contributions from Deribit, the crypto derivatives exchange Coinbase acquired in August.

Including Deribit, JPMorgan models total transaction revenue of $1.06 billion, with Deribit contributing about $117 million on an estimated $586 billion in trading volume. In the previous quarter, the exchange reported $1 billion in transaction revenue.

On the subscription and services side, the bank expects revenue of $670 million, below Coinbase’s prior guidance range of $710 million to $790 million, reflecting softer crypto prices, lower staking yields and slower USDC growth. Worthington also expects operating expenses to come in below guidance as the company reins in costs.

Other sell-siders weigh in

Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish said his estimates sit roughly 10% below consensus on adjusted EBITDA, driven by weaker retail trading and blockchain rewards revenue. “We are notably lower on retail trading revenues, based on read-throughs from Robinhood, and blockchain rewards revenues,” Budish wrote, adding that consensus estimates may not yet fully reflect publicly available volume data.

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Barclays estimates Coinbase exchange volume of about $261 billion in the quarter. He said Robinhood’s (HOOD) reported retail crypto volumes, which have historically tracked closely with Coinbase’s, fell about 15% quarter over quarter.

Compass Point struck a more bearish tone. Analyst Ed Engel said he is negative on the stock into earnings, expecting disappointment in the subscription and services segment. “While investors place a premium multiple on COIN’s S&S segment, we expect 4Q results to affirm overall revenue remains tied to overall crypto prices,” Engel wrote. He also expects January trading revenue to reflect what he described as Coinbase’s weakest retail engagement since the third quarter of 2024.

Beyond the headline numbers, investors are likely to focus on commentary on trading activity early in 2026, the sustainability of USDC-related income, and whether newer initiatives, such as Deribit and Coinbase’s futures business, can meaningfully offset swings in spot crypto markets.

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Crypto World

UK Central Bank to Launch Onchain Settlement Infrastructure Pilot

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UAE, Singapore, China, Business, New York, Bank of England, United Kingdom, CBDC, Tokenization

The Bank of England has launched a new industry experimentation initiative to explore how tokenized assets could be settled using synchronized, atomic settlement in British pounds sterling as part of efforts to modernize the UK’s real-time gross settlement (RTGS) infrastructure.

The Synchronisation Lab initiative will allow 18 selected companies to test delivery-versus-payment and payment-versus-payment settlement between the BoE’s next-generation RTGS core ledger, known as RT2, and external distributed-ledger platforms, in a non-live environment without using real money, according to a bank statement.

The six-month pilot, scheduled to start in spring 2026, is intended to validate the central bank’s design choices for synchronized settlement, assess interoperability between central bank money and tokenized assets, and inform the development of a potential future live RTGS synchronization capability.

Originally announced in October, the initiative brings together 18 participants, including market infrastructure providers, banks, fintechs and decentralized-technology companies to test use cases spanning tokenized securities settlement, collateral optimisation, foreign exchange and digital-money issuance.

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UAE, Singapore, China, Business, New York, Bank of England, United Kingdom, CBDC, Tokenization
Source: Chainlink

Among the Web3 participants, Chainlink and UAC Labs will test decentralized approaches to coordinating synchronized settlement between central bank money and assets issued on distributed-ledger platforms. Companies such as Ctrl Alt and Monee will focus on delivery-versus-payment settlement for tokenized gilts and other securities.

Other participants, including Tokenovate and Atumly, will test conditional margin payment workflows and digital-money issuance and redemption flows designed to coordinate with RTGS settlement. The roster also includes Swift and LSEG.

The bank said the work of the lab initiative will be used to refine the design of its RTGS synchronization capability and support further development work, with participants expected to present their use cases and findings following the conclusion of the program.

Related: UK Lords launch stablecoin inquiry as Bank of England moves to finalize rules

Global central banks expand pilots

The Bank of England is just one of a roster of central banks exploring how tokenization, programmable settlement and digital currencies could reshape their core monetary and payment systems.

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In May, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Bank for International Settlements published research from Project Pine examining how smart contracts could support monetary policy in tokenized financial systems, including a prototype toolkit for faster and more flexible central bank actions on programmable ledgers.

In October, the Monetary Authority of Singapore announced BLOOM, an initiative aimed at expanding settlement infrastructure to support transactions in tokenized bank liabilities and regulated stablecoins.