Bitcoin’s next major catalyst may come from a sharp rethinking of how rate policy interacts with the crypto market. In a recent discussion, ProCap Financial chief investment officer Jeff Park challenged the conventional view that Bitcoin’s bull case is tied primarily to falling interest rates. Park argued that more accommodative monetary conditions might not automatically propel a sustained rally, and that investors should prepare for a world where macro policy shifts could still support risk assets even as rates move higher. The remarks come ahead of a broader dialogue about how liquidity, yields, and central-bank signaling shape Bitcoin’s price trajectory in a regime of evolving financial dynamics. Park spoke with Anthony Pompliano on The Pomp Podcast, highlighting a nuanced take on the macro setup and the potential implications for crypto markets.

Key takeaways

• The traditional link between easing policy and Bitcoin bulls may not hold in all macro regimes; accommodative cycles might not be the sole engine for a long-term upside.
• Jeff Park envisions a scenario where Bitcoin could rise even as the Federal Reserve tightens, describing it as a potential “positive row Bitcoin” that defies the standard QE-driven narrative.
• Park cautions that a shift away from the conventional risk-free-rate framework could upend how yields are priced and how the dollar’s global role influences markets.
• Traders are already encoding rate-cut expectations into probabilities, with 2026 Fed cuts suggesting a non-negligible chance of policy easing later in the decade, even as rate paths remain uncertain.
• Bitcoin’s current price action shows a pullback over the past month, underscoring the ongoing tension between macro expectations and crypto liquidity. 
• The discussion positions Bitcoin within a broader critique of the monetary system and the relationships between the Fed, the Treasury, and yield curves.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC

Sentiment: Neutral

Price impact: Negative. Bitcoin’s recent price action shows a notable 30-day decline, signaling short-term pressure even as a broader narrative contemplates alternative catalysts.

Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. The argument rests on a contested macro thesis that requires confirmation through further data and policy signals.

Market context: The debate sits at the intersection of liquidity dynamics, interest-rate expectations, and the evolving interpretation of the dollar’s global role, which together influence risk assets beyond traditional equities and bonds.

Why it matters

The discussion around accommodative policy as a potential non-linear catalyst for Bitcoin shifts the lens through which investors view crypto cycles. If Bitcoin can navigate higher rates without losing momentum, it suggests that its price sensitivity to macro signals may be more nuanced than a straightforward risk-on/risk-off dichotomy. Park’s thesis hinges on a broader reevaluation of the appeal of crypto assets in a world where central banks recalibrate the cost of capital, inflation expectations, and liquidity provisioning. In practical terms, this could widen the set of scenarios in which Bitcoin remains attractive, notably during periods when traditional assets such as bonds offer diminishing returns while crypto markets exhibit resilience or selective risk-taking.

The remark also touches on the structure of the monetary system itself. Park argues that the existing framework—where the Fed and the Treasury influence yields and debt dynamics—may be strained, potentially altering how investors price risk and the carry associated with various assets. In such a context, Bitcoin could serve as a hedging instrument or a speculative vehicle that benefits from a re-balancing effort among macro players. The core idea is not a guaranteed rally on rate rises, but a possibility that a different set of incentives could emerge, enabling Bitcoin to find new footing in a shifting monetary landscape.

From a trading perspective, the argument emphasizes that the “risk-free rate” concept might be less stable than traditionally assumed. If the dollar’s dominance wanes or if yield curves re-price in unexpected ways, Bitcoin’s narrative may detach from conventional rate-driven logic and align more with liquidity preferences, cross-asset flows, or macro resilience. The conversation about a hypothetical “endgame” for Bitcoin—where price appreciation accompanies higher rates—rests on a broader willingness among investors to entertain non-traditional drivers of value in a complex, evolving financial system.

Amid the discourse, markets are still processing concrete data points. On Polymarket, a predicting market for Fed policy, traders assign a tangible probability to three rate cuts in 2026, pegging it at 27%. While not a forecast, such market-implied expectations illustrate how investors are betting on the policy path even as the near-term trajectory remains uncertain. In the meantime, Bitcoin trades around $70,503, reflecting a roughly 22% slide over the last 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap. The pullback underscores the tension between a theoretical macro thesis and the practical realities of price action driven by liquidity, risk sentiment, and short-term demand-supply dynamics.

Within the broader crypto discourse, the idea that Bitcoin’s price could rise in a rising-rate environment appears as a provocative counter-narrative to widely cited relationships. The conversation echoes previous market observations that Bitcoin’s behavior can be as much about macro structural shifts as about policy tempo. For readers tracking the latest developments, a related analysis by Cointelegraph looked at how Bitcoin price moves relate to demand dynamics during dips, offering a backdrop to understanding who is buying during pullbacks and how institutions view the risk-reward calculus in a volatile sector.

As the debate evolves, observers will watch how signals from policymakers, changes in fiscal-miscal policy interactions, and shifts in global liquidity influence the asset class. The tension between a traditional inflation-targeting toolkit and an expanded crypto market narrative could produce a more multi-faceted set of catalysts for Bitcoin beyond the simple rate-cut/hold dichotomy. The coming months will be telling as investors reconcile the theoretical constructs with the data that materialize in price, on-chain metrics, and macro indicators.

What to watch next

• Monitor Fed communications and policy guidance for 2026 to assess whether rate-cut expectations become more entrenched in markets.
• Track Bitcoin price action around macro data releases and liquidity shifts to gauge whether the asset displays resilience in higher-rate environments.
• Follow commentary from policy analysts and market participants on the viability of the “positive row Bitcoin” thesis and how it aligns with yield-curve dynamics.
• Observe any changes in dollar strength or cross-border capital flows that could influence crypto liquidity and risk appetite.
• Review studies or forecasts that contextualize Bitcoin within a broader monetary-system critique, particularly regarding the Fed-Treasury relationship and the pricing of risk.

Sources & verification

• The interview with Jeff Park on The Pomp Podcast via YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZfsLFGz4hE
• Bitcoin price data and 30-day performance referenced by CoinMarketCap: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
• Polymarket predictions for Fed rate paths (2026): https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026
• Related coverage on Bitcoin price action and market activity: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-rebounds-65k-who-is-buying-the-dip

Market reaction and the evolving Bitcoin rate thesis

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) sits at the center of a debate about how macro policy interacts with digital-asset pricing. Jeff Park, the CIO of ProCap Financial, argues that the old playbook—rates falling to boost liquidity and lift risk assets—may be insufficient to describe the next phase of Bitcoin’s journey. In the discussion with The Pomp Podcast, Park suggested that ultra-loose policy is not a guaranteed passport to a sustained bullish cycle. Instead, he sees a scenario where Bitcoin can appreciate alongside a rising rate environment if macro conditions, liquidity regimes, and investor risk appetites evolve in unanticipated directions.

At the heart of Park’s argument is a contrarian view of the so-called “endgame” for Bitcoin. He describes a possible state, which he terms a “positive row Bitcoin,” where the asset climbs even as the Federal Reserve tightens, challenging the conventional wisdom of QE-driven crypto appreciation. Such a world would require a recalibration of the way markets price risk and a rethink of the role that the risk-free rate plays in the crypto narrative. The notion rests on a broader revaluation of the monetary order, especially the dynamics between the dollar’s global dominance and the pricing of long-dated yields in a system that may no longer follow textbook relationships.

Park underscores that the monetary system is not operating as it once did. He argues that the interplay between the Fed and the U.S. Treasury has moved beyond the familiar playbook, complicating how investors price the yield curve and assess the relative attractiveness of different asset classes. In this framework, Bitcoin’s appeal could be anchored not only in optimism about adoption or censorship resistance but also in a nuanced reassessment of risk, liquidity, and the sequence of policy actions. If central-bank signaling, fiscal policy, and market expectations diverge from historical patterns, then Bitcoin’s performance could diverge from the conventional correlation with rate movements.

Market participants are already weighing these possibilities against current price realities. Bitcoin’s price of around $70,503 and its 30-day decline of roughly 22.5% reflect a market navigating uncertainty about policy direction, liquidity, and macro risk sentiment. The presence of a forward-looking probability for rate cuts in 2026—27% on a Polymarket track—signals that traders are trying to parse a possible shift in the policy landscape even as the near-term trajectory remains unresolved. In this context, the coin remains a focal point for discussions about how crypto assets respond to evolving macro conditions, rather than simply reacting to immediate rate moves.

While the thesis invites cautious optimism about Bitcoin’s resilience in a higher-rate environment, it also invites scrutiny about the assumptions underpinning the narrative. The timing, magnitude, and persistence of any rate adjustments, as well as the broader spectrum of liquidity and market participation, will be critical. The discussion continues to unfold in the public sphere, with analysts and investors closely watching policy signals, macro data, and on-chain indicators to determine whether the “positive row” scenario could materialize or remain a theoretical construct. In the meantime, observers should acknowledge that the path for Bitcoin remains contingent on a confluence of factors, including central-bank decisions, fiscal policy evolution, macro resilience, and the evolving psychology of risk in a shifting financial system.

After several consecutive all-time lows, where is PI’s bottom and how deep can it plunge?

It has been just under a year since the controversial project’s native token began trading on several exchanges. The journey so far has been quite underwhelming for investors, who saw the PI token rocket to an all-time high of $2.99 in late February 2025 and then experienced what can only be described as a massive cataclysmic nosedive.

PI dumped by more than 95% in less than a year. The past few weeks have been particularly painful as the token crashed to consecutive all-time lows, with the latest being at $0.1338 (on CoinGecko) after a 40% decline in a month. Although it has recovered slightly to nearly $0.145, overall sentiment has taken its toll, and the question is whether PI will drop even further.

New ATLs Ahead?

To gain a different perspective on the matter, we asked ChatGPT and Gemini. OpenAI’s alternative explained that PI’s inability to respond positively to recent network updates, which we have repeatedly highlighted, is a clear sign that its market structure and supply dynamics are dominating overall sentiment.

The steady decline to new lows suggests that the selling pressure remains persistent, the speculative demand is weak, and there’s insignificant external capital entering the market.

“Unlike more established altcoins, PI lacks deep liquidity buffers. When selling accelerates, price discovery to the downside can happen fast – as the recent crash demonstrated,” ChatGPT added.

It outlined a few scenarios ahead for PI, with the extreme bear-case predicting a massive plunge to $0.06-$0.08. This “true capitulation phase” would be possible if the token unlock pressure continues, liquidity remains thin, and the broader market sentiment deteriorates even further.

However, ChatGPT reiterated that this is an extreme scenario. Instead, it envisions a more likely decline to $0.10 before the token can bottom out and find more solid support.

Or Even Worse…

Gemini said the daily chart for PI paints a clear “stairway to hell” picture ever since it broke down beneath $0.20. Interestingly, it was even more bearish on PI’s future price performance since the token is now in “no man’s land” below $0.15.

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If the asset fails to reclaim $0.16 by the end of the week, the next major technical liquidity pool sits at $0.05-$0.06, which would be another 65% crash from current levels. There’s another, even worse path ahead, which Gemini called “the zombie chain scenario.”

In it, PI would dump below $0.05 and will effectively become a “zombie coin” – high holder count, zero trading volume, and interest. However, the current odds for such a mindblowing crash are below 20%, Gemini explained, as it would require full investor capitulation, sell-offs by the Core Team, and overall market collapse.

Ethereum investment vehicle Trend Research continued to reduce its Ether exposure, as the latest market crash pushed the treasury company to sell off its assets to pay back loans.

It held about 651,170 Ether (ETH) in the form of Aave Ethereum wrapped Ether (AETHWETH) on Sunday. That amount dropped by 404,090, to about 247,080 on Friday, at the time of writing.

Trend Research transferred 411,075 ETH to cryptocurrency exchange Binance since the beginning of the month, according to blockchain data platform Arkham.

The transfers occurred as ETH price dropped almost 30% in the past week, to as low as $1,748 on Friday, according to CoinMarketCap. It traded at $1,967 at the time of writing.

Related: Sharplink pockets $33M from Ether staking, deploys another $170M ETH

Trend Research continues risk management as ETH liquidation level approaches

Trend Research has been tied to Jack Yi, founder of Hong Kong-based crypto venture firm Liquid Capital. Yi accumulated his Ethereum investment company’s holdings by purchasing ETH at an exchange, using that as collateral on Aave to borrow stablecoins, then using those funds to acquire more ETH.

Trend Research faces multiple ETH liquidation levels between $1,698 and $1,562, wrote blockchain data platform Lookonchain in a Friday X post.

Yi, said in a Thursday X post that he remains bullish despite admitting that he called for a bottom in crypto valuation too early and will continue to wait for a market recovery while “managing risk.”

Related: BitMine buys $105M Ether to kick off 2026, still holds $915M in cash

Trend Research came into the spotlight days after the $19 billion liquidation event of October 2025, when the investment firm began its aggressive Ether accumulation.

Trend Research would have ranked as the third-largest Ether holder in December, but as an unlisted company, it doesn’t appear on most tracking websites.

Bitmine, the largest public corporate Ether holder, was sitting on about $8 billion in unrealized profit on Friday.

Magazine: DAT panic dumps 73,000 ETH, India’s crypto tax stays: Asia Express