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March CPI could be worst since 2024

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Arizona advances bill to hold Bitcoin and XRP in state reserve

The US inflation reading the market has been dreading arrives Friday morning when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the March Consumer Price Index at 8:30 AM ET, with economists widely forecasting it will be the hottest monthly inflation print since May 2022, driven almost entirely by the energy shock from the Iran war.

Summary

  • Barclays Senior US Economist Pooja Sriram forecasts March headline CPI at 0.9 percent month over month and 3.3 percent year over year, “led by a surge in gasoline prices”; BofA Securities economists project a 10.6 percent monthly jump in energy prices driving a 0.9 percent headline increase; Oxford Economics projects headline CPI above 3 percent in March and above 4 percent in April
  • The expected reading would mark a sharp reversal from the 2.4 percent annual inflation rate recorded in the first two months of 2026, and would be the first major inflation data to reflect the impact of the Iran war on consumer energy prices; Pantheon Economics says the US experienced the largest one-month jump in fuel costs since at least 1957
  • Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy, is forecast to rise 0.3 percent monthly and 2.7 percent year over year, with the Federal Reserve expected to hold interest rates at 3.50 to 3.75 percent at its April 29 meeting; CME FedWatch shows 98.4 percent of respondents pricing in no change

As Kiplinger reported, “How much and how severely depends on just how long the conflict continues to crimp key energy exports. Some degree of inflation is now inevitable.” That framing captures the central tension in Friday’s release: whether the data confirms a one-month spike that fades as oil stabilizes, or signals the opening print of a new inflation regime where the Iran war has durably repriced transportation, manufacturing, and utility costs across the economy.

Consumers have already paid approximately $8.4 billion in additional fuel costs in the month after the Iran war started, according to an estimate from the Joint Economic Committee’s Democratic minority. Gasoline prices have averaged over $4 per gallon nationally, with oil remaining close to $110 per barrel even after the temporary ceasefire announcement caused a brief drop.

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Since the post-2009 recovery, only five months have produced a monthly CPI reading of 0.9 percent or higher. Every one of them fell between October 2021 and June 2022, at the peak of the post-pandemic inflation surge. March 2026 is expected to join that short and painful list. The mechanism is straightforward: the Iran war disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical petroleum corridor, causing a supply shock that fed immediately into gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices. Energy costs then ripple into transportation, food distribution, and manufacturing, which is why Oxford Economics expects the headline rate to climb above 4 percent in April even after the temporary ceasefire.

What the Report Means for the Federal Reserve

The Fed had penciled in one interest rate cut for 2026 before the Iran war began. The war repricing of energy has caused many economists to remove that cut from their forecasts entirely. Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, warned that rising prices could pressure household budgets and derail spending. Some Fed policymakers signaled in March meeting minutes that future rate hikes may need to be considered if inflation accelerates further. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told CBS News: “We’re going to be paying the price for this through much of the year.”

What to Watch in the Numbers When the Report Drops Friday

As crypto.news has reported, bitcoin and crypto markets have been closely tracking every inflation signal in 2026, with the war-driven energy shock adding a new layer of uncertainty on top of existing tariff and monetary policy pressures. As crypto.news has noted, the March CPI release is one of the most anticipated economic events of the quarter for crypto investors because a number above 3.5 percent would likely extend the Fed pause and suppress the rate-cut narrative that has historically supported risk asset rallies. The report drops at 8:30 AM ET Friday, April 10.

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Crypto World

senators flag conflict of interest

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senators flag conflict of interest

The DOJ crypto conflict reached a formal accusation this week when six Democratic senators told Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche he had a “glaring conflict of interest” after ProPublica reported he held between $158,000 and $470,000 in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana when he issued the memo disbanding the National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team.

Summary

  • Blanche signed an ethics agreement in February 2025 promising to divest within 90 days and not to participate in matters affecting his digital asset interests, then issued the enforcement rollback memo in April 2025 before divesting, during which window his Bitcoin holdings alone appreciated 34 percent
  • When Blanche eventually divested, he transferred holdings to his adult children and a grandchild rather than liquidating them outright, a move ethics experts told ProPublica is technically legal but against the spirit of conflict of interest law
  • Senators Warren, Hirono, Durbin, Whitehouse, Coons, and Blumenthal set a February 11 deadline for Blanche to produce all communications with ethics officials and the crypto industry around the time of the memo; the Campaign Legal Center simultaneously filed a complaint with the DOJ Inspector General

ProPublica’s investigation documents that Blanche’s memo, titled Ending Regulation by Prosecution, disbanded the NCET, halted Biden-era investigations into crypto companies, and directed the DOJ to assist Trump’s crypto working group. The memo benefited the crypto industry broadly, including Blanche’s own portfolio. A DOJ spokesperson told ProPublica the actions were “appropriately flagged, addressed and cleared in advance,” without specifying who cleared them or how. The senators wrote directly to Blanche: “At the very least, you had a glaring conflict of interest and should have recused yourself.”

The NCET was established in 2022 and led the Binance investigation that resulted in a $4.3 billion settlement. Blanche’s memo disbanded it entirely and directed the Market Integrity and Major Frauds Unit to cease cryptocurrency enforcement in order to focus on other priorities including immigration and procurement fraud. Going forward, the DOJ would only pursue crypto cases involving terrorism, narcotics, human trafficking, hacking, and cartel financing. The senators cited a January 2026 Chainalysis report showing illicit crypto activity surged 162 percent the prior year, arguing their predictions about the consequences of the rollback had proven correct.

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The Divestiture Problem

When Blanche transferred his crypto holdings to family members rather than selling them outright, ethics experts told ProPublica this approach was at odds with the spirit of the law. The Campaign Legal Center argued the transfers did not eliminate his potential financial interest because his family retained the appreciated assets. ProPublica calculated his Bitcoin holdings rose 34 percent between the date of the memo and the date he divested, a gain that reached approximately $105,000 on that position alone.

What the Senators Demanded and What Comes Next

As crypto.news has reported, the DOJ conflict question has become a live variable inside CLARITY Act negotiations, where Democratic senators are pushing for ethics language barring government officials from profiting from crypto. As crypto.news has noted, the federal regulatory framework is being rebuilt through financial regulators rather than criminal enforcement, a structural shift Blanche’s memo accelerated. The Inspector General complaint filed by the Campaign Legal Center remains open, and the DOJ has not responded publicly to the senators’ demand for documentation.

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Circle Stock Falls Amid Downgrade as Drift Exploit Fallout Spreads

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Circle Stock Falls Amid Downgrade as Drift Exploit Fallout Spreads

Shares of stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group fell sharply Thursday following a Wall Street downgrade and reports tied to a legal probe connected to a recent crypto exploit.

Circle’s stock price closed near session lows in Nasdaq trading, falling 9.9% to $85.10.

The decline adds to a broader slide in the company’s shares, which are down nearly 24% over the past month and about 43% over the past six months, reflecting continued volatility after Circle’s high-profile public debut last year.

Circle Internet Group (CRCL) stock. Source: Yahoo Finance

However, the latest pullback may also reflect profit-taking after Circle shares surged between February and March, driven largely by growing stablecoin adoption.

Nevertheless, some analysts are urging caution. On Thursday, Compass Point downgraded Circle to “sell” from “neutral” and issued a $77 price target, implying roughly 9% downside from current levels.

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Circle has also faced pressure from regulatory uncertainty in the United States. Progress on market structure legislation has stalled, while banking industry groups continue to lobby against yield-bearing stablecoins.

Analysts at Bernstein said the concerns are overstated, noting that Circle’s underlying business remains unaffected and pointing to growing USDC (USDC) adoption and strong reserve income.

Related: Crypto investor sentiment will rise once CLARITY Act is passed: Bessent

Fallout from Drift Protocol exploit continues to weigh on crypto markets

Separately, legal scrutiny tied to the recent exploit of decentralized exchange Drift Protocol has added another layer of uncertainty to the broader crypto market, indirectly weighing on sentiment toward Circle.

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According to a notice circulated this week, investors affected by the $280 million Drift exploit are being urged to contact the Oakland, California law firm Gibbs Mura for potential financial recovery. The outreach signals the early stages of a possible class-action investigation tied to losses from the incident.

Source: Cointelegraph

While Circle is not directly implicated in the exploit, the episode has renewed concerns about counterparty risk and the stability of decentralized finance platforms — an overhang that can spill over into publicly traded crypto-linked equities.

The perpetrator of the Drift exploit moved the stolen assets into USDC, prompting speculation over whether the funds could have been frozen by Circle, though no action was taken.

Related: Crypto hacks fall to $49M in February as attackers shift to phishing scams