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Market Analysis: EUR/USD Breaks Higher As USD/JPY Loses Bullish Grip

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Market Analysis: EUR/USD Breaks Higher As USD/JPY Loses Bullish Grip

EUR/USD started a decent upward move above 1.1880. USD/JPY declined below 155.00 and is currently consolidating losses.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

· The Euro found support and started a recovery wave above the 1.1850 resistance zone.

· There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 1.1890 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.

· USD/JPY is trading in a bearish zone below 156.00 and 155.00.

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· There is a short-term bearish trend line forming with resistance at 154.65 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from 1.1765. The Euro climbed above 1.1800 and 1.1850 against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled above 1.1880 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it tested the 1.1930 resistance. A high is formed near 1.1928, and the pair is now consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1765 swing low to the 1.1928 high.

Immediate support is near a connecting bullish trend at 1.1890 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The next area of interest could be 1.1835.

The main breakdown zone on the EUR/USD chart sits near the 76.4% Fib retracement at 1.1805. If there is a downside break below 1.1805, the pair could drop toward 1.1765. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 1.1720 low.

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On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near 1.1930. The next hurdle is 1.1950. An upside break above 1.1950 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.2000.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of USD/JPY at FXOpen, the pair started a steady decline from well above 157.20. The US Dollar gained bearish momentum below 156.00 against the Japanese Yen.

The pair even settled below 155.00 and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a spike below 154.50 and the pair traded as low as 153.34. It is now consolidating losses with a bearish angle. Immediate resistance on the USD/JPY chartis near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 157.65 swing high to the 153.34 low at 154.35.

There is also a short-term bearish trend line forming at 154.5. The first barrier for the bulls could be near the 38.2% Fib retracement at 155.00.

If there is a close above the 155.00 level and the hourly RSI moves above 50, the pair could rise toward 156.00. The next key area of interest is near 156.60, above which the pair could test 157.00 in the coming days.

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On the downside, the first major support is near 153.35. The next key zone is near 152.50. If there is a close below 152.50, the pair could decline steadily. In the stated case, the pair might drop toward 150.00.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Tests Key Level as Compression Builds Toward $80K

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Coinbase, Cryptocurrencies, Business, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Bitcoin Futures, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Liquidity

Bitcoin (BTC) is testing the $71,500 pivot, a key level across multiple timeframes and analysts noted that price action is tilted toward a possible rally to $80,000.

As traders remain split between futures-driven speculation and weak spot demand, Bitcoin has tested the $71,500 inflection point four times in the past seven days. A positive is that the price has held above the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) on the four-hour chart, but the 50-day EMA on the daily chart continues to act as a level of resistance.

Will $80,000 be Bitcoin’s next stop?

Crypto trader Skew described the position as a “compression zone,” where the tightening price range and trading may lead to a strong directional move.

A bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern is also forming on the four-hour chart, with $71,500 acting as the neckline. 

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Coinbase, Cryptocurrencies, Business, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Bitcoin Futures, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Liquidity
BTC/USDT on the four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

A confirmed breakout places the immediate technical target near monthly highs at $76,000, a 7.35% move from current levels. Market analyst Mikybull extends this projection toward $80,000.

Another onchain signal points to the possibility of a 10% to 14% Bitcoin rally. The seven-day standard deviation of short-term holder realized profit and loss flows to Binance dropped to 255 on March 24, returning to a level seen before prior rallies.

Coinbase, Cryptocurrencies, Business, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Bitcoin Futures, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Liquidity
Bitcoin’s short-term realized profit/loss pressure on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant

A similar reading near 277 on Feb. 27 was followed by a 14% rise, while a level around 289 in late December preceded a near 10% gain. The current compression shows a decline in sell-side volatility, with the short-term holder distribution becoming more controlled.

Related: Bitcoin holders shift from panic to cash-buffer discipline as volatility deepens

Bitcoin orderflow data remains split

The recent price strength followed market optimism tied to a potential ceasefire in the US and Israel-Iran war, but on Wednesday, Iran rejected the US peace proposal and outlined its own conditions for ending the conflict, according to the Kobeissi Letter.

BTC held steady through the update, while sensitivity to the US dollar strength and energy prices continues to guide short-term reactions.

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The derivatives positioning shows increased activity. BTC open interest (in terms of USD) has risen by $500 million to $16.5 billion over the past 24 hours, with funding rates turning positive at 0.03% since Monday. The latest rally toward $70,000 was driven largely by futures markets. 

Coinbase, Cryptocurrencies, Business, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Bitcoin Futures, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Liquidity
BTC aggregated spot volume, open interest, Coinbase premium. Source: velo.data

The spot participation lags, with a weak aggregate cumulative volume delta of -$87 million and a negative Coinbase premium signaling softening US-based demand. Thus, the order flow data points to a distributive nature between buyers and sellers across the spot and futures markets. 

Skew explained that for Bitcoin to sustain a breakout above $71,500, the rally needs to be backed by stronger underlying demand, specifically, strong buyer support, steady accumulation, and continued absorption of selling pressure from short traders. 

Coinbase, Cryptocurrencies, Business, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Bitcoin Futures, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Liquidity
$60 million BTC bid filled. Source: Skew/X

A $60 million bid was filled during the New York session, highlighting renewed demand, but a clear follow-through is needed for the price to retain a bullish structure above $71,500.

Related: Bitcoin rebounds during Iran war, but safe haven role unproven