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Max pain at $75k but $596m in $20k Bitcoin puts expose market’s fear

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Summary

  • Deribit data shows $20k Bitcoin put options are now the third most crowded strike by open interest, with about $596m notional, behind $125k and $75k calls heading into the quarterly expiry.
  • Despite the doomsday optics, much of the $20k put exposure likely reflects traders selling tail-risk insurance for premium rather than betting on a 70%+ crash from spot.
  • With max pain clustered around $75k and fear gauges elevated after macro and geopolitical shocks, the positioning highlights a split market: structurally bullish but acutely aware of low‑probability blow-up scenarios.

As Bitcoin’s largest quarterly options expiration of the year approaches on Deribit, a striking data point has emerged from the derivatives market: $20,000 put options have become the third most popular strike price by open interest, with a notional value of approximately $596 million. The figure reflects a market gripped by uncertainty — one in which traders are simultaneously betting on recovery and hedging for catastrophe.

According to data cited by CoinDesk, the top three strike prices by open interest ahead of the quarterly expiry are: $125,000 call options ($740 million), $75,000 calls ($687 million), and $20,000 put options ($596 million). The total notional value of the expiration stands at $13.5 billion, comprising 120,236 BTC in call contracts and 75,482 BTC in put contracts — a put/call ratio of 0.63, which, despite the elevated put activity, still leans modestly bullish in aggregate.

The surge in $20,000 put interest has raised eyebrows across the derivatives community, but analysts caution against reading it as a straightforward crash prediction. With Bitcoin currently trading below $70,000, the $20,000 strike represents a more than 70% decline from current levels — placing these contracts deeply out of the money.

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Deribit’s global head of retail sales, Sidrah Fariq, noted that much of the positioning in deeply out-of-the-money puts likely reflects option selling for premium income rather than genuine expectation of such an extreme decline. Traders collect upfront premiums by selling low-probability puts, a common yield-enhancement strategy during periods of elevated implied volatility.

Still, the sheer scale of the position — which has been reported at close to $800 million in some analyses earlier this month — has drawn scrutiny. Whalesbook analysts noted that the concentration “warrants closer examination than simple hedging,” particularly as it coincides with a broader backdrop of geopolitical stress, rising energy prices, and macro uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict.

Indeed, market context matters. The Fear and Greed Index plunged to extreme fear territory in early March following the escalation of the Middle East crisis and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin briefly fell toward the $67,000–$69,000 range, with put/call ratios for near-term expirations spiking to as high as 1.70. Against this backdrop, the accumulation of $20,000 puts — even if primarily driven by premium selling — signals that at least some market participants are not ruling out tail-risk scenarios.

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The maximum pain point for the quarterly expiration sits at $75,000, a level that market-makers may be incentivized to push toward before settlement — potentially creating a near-term magnetic effect on spot prices.

For now, the presence of nearly $600 million in $20,000 puts underscores the defining tension of this market cycle: institutional optimism on one end, and a deeply uncertain macro and geopolitical landscape on the other.

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Polygon, Frax and Curve Launch Onchain Forex Liquidity Pools

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Polygon, Frax and Curve Launch Onchain Forex Liquidity Pools

Curve’s FXSwap pools use frxUSD as the base dollar pairing for cross-currency swaps spanning the Brazilian real, Indonesian rupiah, British pound, Australian dollar, Korean won and USDT.

Polygon Labs, Frax, Curve Finance and DFB Network have launched a suite of foreign exchange liquidity pools on the Polygon blockchain, enabling onchain swaps between fiat-pegged stablecoins using Frax’s frxUSD as the base dollar pairing.

The pools are live on Curve’s Polygon deployment and pair frxUSD against BRZ (Brazilian real), IDRX (Indonesian rupiah), tGBP (British pound), AUDF (Australian dollar), KRWQ (Korean won) and USDT, with additional currency pairs in development. The four partners have also collaborated on an incentive program to bootstrap liquidity across the pools, with gauges live for reward distribution.

$6 Trillion Market

The launch targets the $6.6 trillion-per-day global FX market, which the partners argue has remained expensive and slow due to its concentration among a small number of intermediaries. Onchain FX has been theoretically possible for years, the partners said, but high transaction fees, fragmented dollar-side liquidity and a lack of institutional trust in automated market maker (AMM) infrastructure have prevented commercial-scale adoption.

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“When you pair sub-cent transaction fees with a stable dollar base like frxUSD and Curve’s liquidity infrastructure, you get something the traditional FX market has never offered: transparent pricing, instant settlement, and access for any company,” Polygon Labs CEO Marc Boiron said in a blog post.

How the Stack Works

Each layer of the stack handles a different function. Frax’s frxUSD serves as the dollar anchor for every pool. The stablecoin is fully backed by tokenized U.S. Treasuries from institutions including BlackRock, WisdomTree and Superstate, and the protocol forwards underlying Treasury yield as sustainable LP incentives.

Curve provides the exchange layer via its FXSwap pool type, which is optimized for currency-pair trading, offering tighter spreads and lower slippage than general-purpose AMMs.Curve has operated on Polygon since 2021 and remains one of the deepest stablecoin liquidity venues in DeFi.

DFB Network handles market-making and liquidity infrastructure, connecting international stablecoin issuers to the onchain exchange layer. The firm provides automated bots that monitor onchain and offchain FX markets and execute arbitrage to maintain pool health.

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Polygon itself functions as the settlement layer. A typical token transfer on the network costs roughly $0.002, according to Polygon Labs, and throughput capacity sits at over 2,600 transactions per second.

Commercial FX

The pools are being pitched as practical infrastructure for cross-border business payments. A company settling transactions between Brazil and the United States, for instance, could swap BRZ to frxUSD at market rates, settle in seconds and pay a fraction of a cent in fees, according to the blog post.

For a company processing $10 million per month, even a 50-basis-point improvement in FX spreads would return $50,000 monthly.

Among the non-USD stablecoins in the initial set, BRZ is described as the longest-lasting Brazilian real stablecoin, IDRX serves a large retail base in Indonesia, tGBP is positioned as the leading British pound-pegged token, and AUDF is backed by one of the largest OTC desks in the Oceania region.

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This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.

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Tokenized perpetual swaps hit $31 billion weekly volume on commodities volatility

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IMF warns tokenization could bring crypto risks into global financial markets

Trading in tokenized versions of traditional assets surged in the first quarter, with perpetual swaps tied to commodities and equities drawing billions in weekly volume and bringing 24/7 activity to a wider range of markets.

Weekly trading volume of such assets jumped to $30.7 billion, or 1.72% of the total crypto derivatives market, by end-March, crypto exchange BitMEX, said in a report published Thursday. That’s up from 0.03% in December, according to the exchange, which invented the tools in 2014.

Commodities powered the rise. Contracts linked to silver, gold and crude oil saw sharp gains as price swings and geopolitical tension fueled demand. Oil trading alone climbed to $6.9 billion in weekly volume after the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran started Feb. 28, prompting a surge in round-the-clock oil trading volumes.

While commodities saw a 65,000% jump in volume during the quarter, there’s context to the figure. Precious metals saw a historic rally at the beginning of the year, with silver topping $100 per ounce for the first time and gold rising nearly 24%, before both gave back nearly all of the gains.

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Equities saw a similar breakout. Perpetual swaps tied to stocks grew 908% over the quarter to roughly $4.9 billion in weekly volume, BitMEX found.

At its peak during the February metals rally, total weekly volume across perpetuals tied to traditional investments hit $54.5 billion.

The price of oil started surging at the outbreak of hostilities with Iran, given the country’s control of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passageway through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows.

Perpetual swaps differ from traditional futures contracts by removing expiry dates. Instead, they use a funding rate, a periodic payment between long and short holders, to keep prices aligned with the underlying assets, allowing the instruments to trade round-the-clock with no expiry.

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That permanent access to traditional financial markets is what’s driving the growth of tokenized perpetual swaps, BitMEX noted. The current macroeconomic volatility has served as a catalyst to boost volumes, and exchanges have capitalized by launching TradFi perpetuals.

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OpenAI puts $100M into Alzheimers

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OpenAI puts $100M into Alzheimers

The AI healthcare pivot inside the OpenAI Foundation became concrete this week as the organization announced it is finalizing more than $100 million in Alzheimer’s research grants this month across six research institutions, making the disease the first major target of what the Foundation has committed to as at least $1 billion in 2026 grantmaking.

Summary

  • The grants focus on four research areas: mapping Alzheimer’s disease pathways using AI, designing and lab-testing new drugs with AI assistance, supporting open datasets to predict drug activity and chart disease progression, and establishing new biomarkers for diagnosis and clinical trials, including repurposing existing FDA-approved molecules to reduce the path from discovery to treatment
  • Jacob Trefethen, Head of Life Sciences at the OpenAI Foundation, is leading the work; he joins from Coefficient Giving, where he oversaw more than $500 million in grantmaking to science and health; the Foundation’s total grantmaking in 2024 was $7.6 million, making this $100 million round a 13-fold increase in a single month
  • The grants are part of the Foundation’s $1 billion 2026 spending commitment, itself the first tranche of a $25 billion long-term philanthropic pledge made possible by OpenAI’s fall 2025 recapitalization, which gave the nonprofit access to capital for the first time since OpenAI incorporated a for-profit subsidiary in 2019

The OpenAI Foundation’s Alzheimer’s page frames the disease plainly: “Alzheimer’s is one of the hardest and most heartbreaking diseases families face — and one of the toughest problems in medicine.”

Wait, that quote contains an em dash. Let me use the quote without the dash:

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The OpenAI Foundation’s Alzheimer’s page describes the disease as “one of the hardest and most heartbreaking diseases families face.” The Foundation’s approach is pragmatic rather than speculative. Rather than developing new compounds from scratch, the grants prioritize repurposing existing FDA-approved molecules, a lower-risk strategy that shortens the path from discovery to patient access. Over 100 Alzheimer’s drugs have failed in clinical trials since 2000. The Foundation’s position is that AI’s ability to reason across complex, heterogeneous biological datasets can surface mechanisms and biomarkers that conventional research has repeatedly missed. Grantee institutions include UCSF and the UW Medicine Institute for Protein Design.

The UW Medicine Institute for Protein Design has already used AI-driven protein design models to engineer molecules that engage, modify, and degrade targets critical to Alzheimer’s disease progression. The Foundation describes this as the beginning of a collaborative pipeline, with the goal of validating AI-designed molecules in cells, tissues, and animals before advancing to clinical testing. The biomarker focus is equally significant. The recent approval of the first Alzheimer’s blood test created a new tool for assessing a patient’s condition without invasive procedures. The Foundation is funding work to expand that toolkit, making it possible to measure a drug’s effect on disease progression in clinical trials and to identify high-risk patients earlier.

Why This Represents a Structural Shift in OpenAI’s Mission

The scale gap is the most striking number in this announcement. The OpenAI Foundation granted $7.6 million in all of 2024. The Alzheimer’s grants alone exceed that by a factor of 13. The $1 billion 2026 target is 130 times larger than last year’s total. This is the activation of a dormant philanthropic vehicle using capital from the company’s recapitalization. The Foundation’s Executive Director role remains unfilled, meaning Trefethen and the life sciences team are building programs at this scale without a fully constituted leadership team in place.

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What the Investment Signals for AI in Science

As crypto.news has reported, the credibility of frontier AI companies’ stated missions, including OpenAI’s, is directly tracked by institutional investors and markets watching the AI infrastructure buildout. As crypto.news has noted, OpenAI’s capital and talent decisions in 2025 and 2026 have had direct market effects on AI-adjacent crypto assets and broader perceptions of the AI sector’s long-term trajectory. The Foundation expects to make further Alzheimer’s grants throughout 2026 and is actively seeking to expand partnerships to additional scientists and research institutions.

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Binance enters prediction markets arena via Predict.fun integration

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Binance tightens market maker rules and warns token issuers to disclose partners

Binance has added a prediction markets feature to its Binance Wallet, giving users a way to trade on the likelihood of real-world events without leaving the app.

The rolloaut connects Binance Wallet to Predict.fun, a decentralized platform built on BNB Smart Chain and it isn’t supported in every region in which the exchange operates. The platform was built by a former Binance employee and lets users earn yield while positions remain open.

Prediction markets let users buy shares tied to outcomes such as election results, sports matches or economic data releases and have seen their popularity explode. Prices range from $0.01 to $0.99 and reflect crowd estimates of probability.

Users can now place trades using funds already held in Binance spot or funding accounts. It also removes blockchain transaction fees by covering gas costs, a step that could lower the barrier for retail users.

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Binance said the feature runs through a keyless wallet system, which splits control of private keys to reduce single points of failure. Users must create a separate prediction account to access the service.

The company does not operate the markets directly or act as a counterparty, it said. Instead, it provides access to a third-party application.

The move comes following prediction markets’ monthly trading volumes surging 200-fold in the last two years from less than $100 million to more than $20 billion, according to TokenTerminal data.

Prediction markets are currently dominated by Polymarket and Kalshi, which together capture more than 97% of the market and have been growing steadily while gaining institutional backing. Kalshi recently secured $1 billion in funding at an $11 billion valuation, and Polymarket seeing up to $2 billion in commitments from the owner of the New York Stock Exchange.

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Bitcoin Whales Dump $271M In BTC: What May Happen Next?

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Whale

Data shows Bitcoin (BTC) investors who had held their positions for over seven years took profit last week by selling $271 million in BTC.

A similar wave of “OG whale” selling in January coincided with a more fragile market that lacked buyer demand, triggering a sharp dip in the BTC price. Current onchain data reflects a much stronger market where BTC supply absorption and reduced selling may allow Bitcoin to hold its place in the $70,000-$72,000 range.

OG Whale BTC supply meets strong absorption

Data from Capriole Investments shows that the Bitcoin “OG whale spent value” moved roughly $271 million on Sunday. That marks the largest surge in activity for this cohort since Jan. 10, when a $280 million outflow spike preceded a 13% correction to $78,700 from $90,000 within two weeks.

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BTC OG whale spent value. Source: Capriole Investments

While the whale movement may raise concerns among investors, this activity historically aligns with measured profit-taking rather than with chaotic selling.

Glassnode suggests a stronger absorption capacity from other holders. Data show that the 30-day net position change for long-term holders remained positive at 88,000 BTC on April 9. This follows a reversal from deeply negative flows of -152,000 BTC recorded in February, easing the prior overhead supply pressure.

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Whale
BTC: Long-term holder net position change. Source: Glassnode

The accumulating cohorts also continued to expand their holdings. Cointelegraph reported that the total balance exceeded 4.3 million BTC on Tuesday, rising further to 4.5 million on Thursday.

This indicates a sustained transfer of coins into stronger hands, reducing the impact of selling from older wallets. 

Related: Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF trails BlackRock with $30M in first-day inflows

Bitcoin “stress cycle” has not reversed yet, says analyst

CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV highlighted two key indicators shaping the current BTC positioning. The short-term Sharpe Ratio has dropped to -40, a level historically associated with major accumulation phases in 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2023.

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Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio. Source: CryptoQuant

At the same time, the buy-and-sell pressure delta (30) indicates a completed capitulation phase, marked by intense sell pressure below -0.05. The metric is now moving toward neutral territory, signaling that forced selling has eased while demand gradually rebuilds.

Past cycles show that the highest asymmetry emerges once the delta re-enters clear buy-pressure zones. The current readings sit between exhaustion and confirmed demand recovery.

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Whale
Bitcoin buy/sell pressure delta. Source: CryptoQuant

The analyst noted that the macro conditions and liquidity flows continue to shape the pace of this transition, adding, 

“For investors with a cycle-aware framework, the data suggests we are closer to the beginning of an opportunity than the end of one.”

Related: Bitcoin price surfs US PCE inflation as trader keeps $80K BTC price target