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Michael Saylor’s bitcoin stack is officially underwater, but here’s why he likely won’t reach for the panic button

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Michael Saylor’s bitcoin stack is officially underwater, but here’s why he likely won't reach for the panic button

Bitcoin’s dip to around $75,500 briefly pushed the price just below Strategy’s (MSTR) average purchase cost of roughly $76,037 per coin.

That may sound alarming at first glance, and it technically puts Michael Saylor’s firm underwater on its bitcoin holdings, but it doesn’t fundamentally change the company’s financial position.

There is no balance sheet stress and no forced selling risk. What it does is slow down its future bitcoin buying.

Strategy currently holds 712,647 bitcoin — all of it unencumbered, meaning none of the holdings are pledged as collateral, so there’s no risk of forced selling just because the price falls below its cost of buying.

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Some might question what happens to the $8.3 billion in convertible debt on its books when the bitcoin price falls below the threshold.

The debt load might sound massive, but it also offers plenty of flexibility.

Strategy can extend maturities (roll over its debt), convert debt to shares when they come due. Note that the first convertible note put date isn’t until the fourth quarter of 2027.

There are also other ways to manage the obligations. For example, other bitcoin treasury firms, like Strive (ASST), have recently used tools like perpetual preferred shares to retire its convertible debt. Strategy has similar options if needed.

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Where the pressure shows up is in fundraising.

Historically, Strategy has mostly funded its bitcoin buys by selling new shares through at-the-market (ATM) offerings. What that means is that a company that wants to raise capital by issuing shares instructs brokers to sell them at the current market price rather than selling a large chunk of new stock at a discount. What this does is that shares are sold into the open market, minimizing the impact on the market price.

But that strategy only works well when the stock trades at a premium to its net asset value (mNAV), a metric that compares a company’s market capitalization to the real-time market value of its bitcoin holdings. Last Friday, when bitcoin was around $90,000 to $89,000, the multiple was about 1.15x for the strategy, indicating it was at a premium to its bitcoin holdings. But with bitcoin falling from around $85,000 to the mid-$70,000s this weekend, that premium has now flipped to a discount or below 1, making new equity raises less attractive.

So trading below cost basis is not a crisis.

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It simply slows Strategy’s ability to grow its bitcoin stack without diluting shareholders. For context, back in 2022, when MSTR’s shares traded below the bitcoin holding value for most of the year, the company added only about 10,000 bitcoin.

The company likely won’t go under on this, but the shares will potentially react negatively if the bitcoin price holds at these levels or falls further when markets open on Monday.

Read more: Strategy’s increased dollar buffer covers more than 2 years of dividend obligations

Disclaimer: The analyst who wrote this article has shares in Strategy (MSTR).

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Crypto World

Price Falls While Network Activity Surges

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Successful payment on XRP Ledger. Source: XRPScan

XRP Ledger recorded multiple breakthrough metrics in February. These figures reflect Ripple’s effectiveness in attracting attention and accelerating adoption on its underlying blockchain.

However, XRP’s price remained stuck below $1.4 during the final week of February, despite several positive signals that predicted an upcoming recovery.

Activity on XRP Ledger Increased in February After Upgrades

Data from XRPscan shows that the number of successful payments on the XRP Ledger has continuously increased over the past month. The figure rose from a low of 1 million payments at the end of December last year to more than 2.7 million in February. This marks the highest level in 12 months.

Successful payment on XRP Ledger. Source: XRPScan
Successful payment on XRP Ledger. Source: XRPscan

On the XRP Ledger, a successful payment is a transaction that validators have confirmed and recorded on the distributed ledger.

Therefore, this increase reflects the growing vibrancy of the XRP Ledger. A higher number of successful transactions proves that users genuinely use the network for payments, transfers, DeFi, or other applications.

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“XRP network activity stays strong. Around 2M transactions per day and roughly 40K active addresses. That is real usage. While most chains chase narratives, XRPL keeps moving value. Payments. Settlements. This kind of consistency is what institutions look for,” crypto investor CryptoSensei said.

In addition, the Automated Market Maker (AMM) on the XRPL DEX showed signs of a breakout, with more than 14,000 deposits. This development provides XRPL with additional decentralized liquidity and reduces trading slippage.

AMM Deposit on XRP Ledger. Source: XRPScan.
AMM Deposit on XRP Ledger. Source: XRPscan.

Notably, AMM activity has never been this before. This breakout occurred after the Permissioned Domains upgrade was activated in early February. The network enabled the Permissioned DEX two weeks later.

Investors expect the Permissioned DEX to pave the way for banks, payment providers, and financial institutions to trade within a controlled liquidity environment on XRP Ledger.

Despite these positive signs, XRP’s price continued into its fifth consecutive month of decline, and the final week of February closed in the red. At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $1.33, down 45% from its early-year high.

XRP Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto Price
XRP Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto Price

A recent report from BeInCrypto shows that rising whale inflows to exchanges continue to create selling pressure. Realized losses have reached their highest level since 2022.

However, historical signals also suggest that such extreme negativity often precedes a price bottom and a strong recovery. The latest analysis from BeInCrypto clarifies that XRP now needs confirmation through a breakout above the $1.47 resistance level.

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Nansen to Set up Bhutan Entity in Gelephu Mindfulness City

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Bitcoin Adoption, Bhutan

Blockchain analytics company Nansen will establish a local entity and build a Bhutan-based team in Gelephu Mindfulness City (GMC), expanding into the kingdom as its Special Administrative Region advances its digital asset strategy.

According to a joint announcement shared with Cointelegraph, Nansen plans to incorporate within GMC and develop on-the-ground analytics capabilities to provide blockchain data and market intelligence to industry participants operating in the region.

GMC is a purpose-built Special Administrative Region in southern Bhutan focused on long-term economic development. The region has previously announced digital asset initiatives spanning custody infrastructure, tokenization, institutional liquidity and regulatory frameworks.