Crypto World
Michael Saylor’s Strategy’s (MSTR) big Q4 loss looks dramatic, but bitcoin would have to fall below $8K to trigger trouble
Wall Street analysts covering Strategy (MSTR) broadly agree on one point after the company’s fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday: the headline losses look dramatic, but they do not signal a liquidity crisis or forced bitcoin selling.
Strategy reported a $17.4 billion operating loss and a $12.6 billion net loss for the quarter, figures driven largely by non-cash mark-to-market accounting tied to bitcoin’s price decline. Both TD Cowen and Benchmark said the market reaction missed that context, sending shares down about 17% on a day when bitcoin and other risk assets were already under pressure.
Shares are higher by 21% on Friday as bitcoin climbs from yesterday’s low of $60,000 to back above $70,000.
The two analysts agree the core debate centers on solvency, not profitability. Strategy holds 713,502 bitcoin, worth nearly $50 billion at current prices, against about $8.2 billion in convertible debt. Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer said the company would only face true balance-sheet stress if bitcoin fell below $8,000 and stayed there for years. Management emphasized on the earnings call that none of its debt carries covenants or triggers tied to bitcoin’s price or its average purchase cost.
TD Cowen’s Lance Vitanza also focused on the durability of the capital structure. He argued that Strategy was built to amplify bitcoin’s volatility by design, with common equity trading at roughly 1.5 times bitcoin’s swings. That leverage cuts both ways. Vitanza said the company’s $2.25 billion cash reserve and staggered debt maturities mean there is no reasonable scenario where Strategy would be forced to sell bitcoin in the near term, even if prices remain depressed.
Where analysts differ is less about risk and more about framing. TD Cowen leaned into Strategy’s role as a “digital credit engine,” highlighting its growing preferred equity business and the liquidity of its STRC preferred stock, which pays an 11.25% annualized dividend. Benchmark placed more weight on bitcoin’s long-term price path and the optionality embedded in Strategy’s equity if bitcoin rallies.
Both firms remain constructive on the stock. Benchmark reiterated a Buy rating with a $705 price target, based on a sum-of-the-parts model that assumes bitcoin reaches $225,000 by the end of 2026. TD Cowen also maintained a Buy rating, arguing that Strategy remains one of the most efficient ways for investors to gain leveraged bitcoin exposure outside of ETFs, though it did not disclose a specific price target in its note.
Bithumb said it identified and corrected an internal payout error after an “abnormal amount” of Bitcoin was credited to some user accounts during a promotional event, briefly causing sharp price fluctuations on the exchange.
In a company announcement on Friday, the South Korean crypto exchange said the price dislocation occurred after some recipients sold the mistakenly credited Bitcoin, but that it quickly restricted the affected accounts through internal controls, allowing market prices to stabilize within minutes and preventing any chain liquidations.
Bithumb said the incident was unrelated to any hacking or security breach and did not result in losses to customer assets, adding that trading, deposits and withdrawals are operating normally. The company said that customer funds remain safely managed and that it will transparently disclose follow-up actions to prevent similar errors.
While Bithumb did not disclose the amount involved, several users on X claimed that some accounts were erroneously credited with roughly 2,000 Bitcoin (BTC), a claim that has not been independently verified.
The news comes after Bithumb said in January that it had identified roughly $200 million in dormant customer assets spread across 2.6 million accounts that had been inactive for more than a year, as part of a recovery campaign.
According to CoinGecko, Bithumb currently carries a trust score of 7 out of 10 and reported roughly $2.2 billion in 24-hour trading volume at the time of writing.
Related: Bithumb halves crypto lending leverage, slashes loan limits by 80%: Report
Operational issues at centralized cryptocurrency exchanges
Beyond price volatility, the past year has exposed operational challenges at centralized cryptocurrency exchanges that have affected users during routine activity and periods of market stress.
In June, Coinbase acknowledged that restrictions on user accounts had been a major issue for the exchange, and claimed it had reduced unnecessary account freezes by 82% following upgrades to the exchange’s machine-learning models and internal infrastructure.
The disclosure followed years of complaints from users who reported being locked out of their accounts for months, sometimes during periods of heightened market volatility, even when no security breach or external attack had occurred.
During the Oct. 10 market sell-off that triggered billions of dollars in liquidations, Binance faced user complaints that technical issues prevented some traders from exiting positions at peak volatility.
Although Binance said its core trading infrastructure remained operational, and attributed the liquidations primarily to broader market conditions rather than internal failures, the exchange later distributed about $728 million in compensation to users affected by the disruptions.
Magazine: The critical reason you should never ask ChatGPT for legal advice
Bitcoin’s Feb. 5 collapse will go down as one of the most historic selloffs on record. Below are the key statistics that help define the event and indicate how much further there may be to fall.
The bitcoin price started the day near $73,000 and fell to a low around $62,000, a drop — or, as some market participants call it, a candle — of more than $10,000. The day’s 14% decline was the largest single-day drop since November 2022, during the implosion of crypto exchange FTX.
The Fear and Greed Index dropped into single digits, a level seen only a handful of times in bitcoin’s 17-year history. At the same time, bitcoin was the third most oversold it has ever been on the RSI, an indicator that measures the speed and change of price movements.
Supply in profit and loss
The circulating supply in loss, meaning the number of coins that last moved at prices higher than the market price, surged to almost 10 million BTC. That is the fourth-highest level ever, comparable with the 2015, 2019 and 2022 bear-market bottoms.
Another measure, the amount of long-term holders’ circulating supply that is at a loss, reached 4.6 million BTC. At the lows of previous bear markets, the figure exceeded 5 million BTC, suggesting this metric is approaching, but has not yet fully matched, prior extremes.
Supply in profit and supply in loss have nearly converged, a condition that has historically aligned with the bottom of major market declines. At present, roughly 10 million BTC sit in profit and 10 million BTC sit in loss.
While nobody knows for certain whether the bottom is in for bitcoin, history suggests it is likely close, especially with bitcoin already recovering toward $68,000.
Still, market participants may be waiting for bitcoin to test its 200-week moving average, currently near $58,011.
Bitwise contends that the crypto industry’s obsession with timing a market bottom overlooks a historical pattern where peak investor anxiety often signals the start of a recovery.
Having navigated the 2018 and 2022 winters, the crypto asset manager suggested the current “anxious feeling” in the market is a trailing indicator of historical recovery zones.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan noted that investors who bought the dip during the 2018 nadir saw returns of approximately 2,000%, while those who entered during the 2022 lows are up roughly 300% in just over three years. For those with a long-term horizon, the firm views the current disconnect between price and progress as a repeat of these specific cycles.
The global crypto market has faced a bruising start to 2026, with over $2 trillion in value wiped out since the October 2025 peak. Bitcoin recently plummeted to a 16-month low near $60,000, a psychological breach that triggered nearly $5.4 billion in leveraged liquidations over a single 72-hour window.
Analysts attributed the carnage to a perfect storm of macro headwinds: the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair signaling a hawkish hard money shift, massive outflows from U.S. spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) totaling billions, and a broader de-risking trend that has seen investors flee both digital assets and high-growth tech stocks.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading around $68,800 at publication time.
According to the Friday blog post, the fundamental case for the asset class remains unchanged despite the price action.
Hougan argued that the world is increasingly digital and demands non-fiat currencies, pointing to the ascendancy of stablecoins, the rise of tokenization, and the emergence of prediction markets and “AiFi” as evidence of a maturing ecosystem.
He emphasized that while prices do not currently reflect this progress, Wall Street’s continued integration with blockchain technology suggests that fundamentals will eventually drive the next leg up.
Regarding a potential turnaround, Bitwise acknowledged that crypto bear markets typically end in exhaustion rather than a sudden burst of excitement. However, the asset manager identified several specific triggers that could serve as a catalyst for a recovery.
These include the potential passage of the CLARITY Act, a shift back toward risk-on market sentiment, rising interest rate-cut expectations, and technological breakthroughs at the intersection of AI and crypto. In the absence of a sudden positive shock, Bitwise expects the market to “grind out a bottom,” prescribing a strategy of patience and a focus on the long-term destination.
Read more: Deutsche Bank says bitcoin’s selloff signals a loss of conviction, not a broken market
President Donald Trump this week launched TrumpRx, a government-backed platform aimed at lowering prescription drug prices for Americans paying out of pocket. While the announcement initially raised concerns about pricing pressure, financial markets have delivered a clear response.
Major pharmaceutical stocks rallied on February 6, signaling that investors do not see TrumpRx as a near-term threat to earnings. That reaction also matters for broader markets, including crypto, because it shapes overall risk sentiment.
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What TrumpRx Actually Is
TrumpRx is a pricing and discount portal, not a price-control regime. The platform lists dozens of commonly used drugs and directs users to discounted cash prices offered voluntarily by drugmakers and pharmacies.
Crucially, it targets cash-paying and uninsured consumers. It does not affect insurance-negotiated prices, Medicare reimbursement formulas, or long-term supply contracts, which make up the bulk of US pharmaceutical revenue.
But Investors Aren’t Panicking About Drug Profits
Markets are signaling that TrumpRx trims the edges of pricing, not the core. Most pharmaceutical revenue comes from insured and institutional channels that remain untouched by the program.
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For dominant players in high-demand categories like weight-loss and specialty drugs, pricing power remains strong.
In some cases, lower cash prices may even boost volumes without materially hurting margins.
Voluntary Discounts, Not Forced Controls
Another key factor is structure. Participation in TrumpRx is voluntary and tied to broader trade and supply-chain cooperation, including tariff relief.
Sponsored
For global drugmakers, reduced trade and regulatory risk can offset limited pricing concessions. That trade-off helps explain why the sector moved higher instead of lower.
What This Means For Broader Markets
The pharma rally sends a wider signal. Investors are not pricing in aggressive government intervention or profit-destroying regulation.
That matters for equities and crypto alike. When policy actions appear contained and predictable, risk appetite stabilizes across markets.
Sponsored
Crypto Cares, Even Indirectly
TrumpRx has no direct link to digital assets. However, crypto remains highly sensitive to policy uncertainty and financial conditions.
By failing to trigger a regulatory shock or worsen inflation expectations, TrumpRx reduces the chance of a hawkish policy response from the Federal Reserve. Stable rate expectations ease pressure on volatile assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Markets are treating TrumpRx as a political signal, not a systemic shock. The positive reaction in pharma stocks shows investors see the policy as narrow, voluntary, and economically contained.
For crypto and risk assets, the takeaway is simple. TrumpRx does not tighten financial conditions or raise regulatory risk.
Instead, it supports a backdrop of policy stability that allows markets to focus on liquidity, rates, and fundamentals rather than fear.
In a recent interview, Bitcoin veteran Samson Mow shares a measured read on the latest pullback in BTC and what may lie behind the churn. He frames Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) not merely as a store of value but as the most liquid asset in global markets, whose 24/7 trading may amplify downside spillovers during stress. The discussion traverses the seeming disconnect between stronger on-chain fundamentals and a prolonged price decline, the rising strength in gold and silver, and the idea that capital rotation among hard assets could set the stage for Bitcoin’s next breakout. The interview also tackles the idea of a looming “quantum threat” and whether it belongs in today’s risk calculus.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin’s liquidity and around-the-clock trading are highlighted as factors that can magnify downside moves during periods of market stress, according to Mow.
- The narrative emphasizes capital rotation into hard assets, with gold and silver rallies potentially influencing BTC demand as investors reassess risk exposure.
- Discussion of the so‑called quantum threat is treated as a theoretical risk rather than an imminent trigger for BTC price action.
- Despite months of selling pressure, the interview suggests BTC could recover if risk sentiment improves and liquidity conditions shift, even amid strong on-chain fundamentals.
- The long‑standing fiat-devaluation thesis for Bitcoin is debated, with no consensus on whether it remains the primary driver of price moves.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC
Sentiment: Neutral
Market context: In the broader market, Bitcoin’s price action sits amid shifting liquidity and risk appetite. Traders weigh macro signals, cross-asset flows, and structural factors in crypto, with BTC acting as a liquidity proxy that can move sharply on liquidity crises or shifts in risk sentiment.
Why it matters
The interview provides a framework for interpreting a complex price environment where on-chain health does not always translate into immediate price appreciation. By centering Bitcoin’s role as the most liquid asset, the discussion helps readers understand how systemic stress can reverberate through BTC markets even when miners, network security, and transaction metrics remain robust. For investors, the conversation offers a reminder that liquidity dynamics—how quickly assets can be traded without moving price—play a critical role in short- to medium-term volatility. For traders, the emphasis on capital rotation into gold and silver as a macro signal that could precede crypto demand introduces a potential cross-asset tool for assessing sensitivity to risk-on or risk-off shifts. For builders and researchers, the dialogue underscores the need to monitor not just on-chain metrics but the evolving risk sentiment that shapes liquidity and price discovery in crypto markets.
What to watch next
- Watch BTC price action and liquidity indicators in the coming weeks for signs of capitulation easing or a sustainable bounce.
- Monitor the pace of gold and silver rallies and any corresponding shifts in capital flows that could reallocate demand toward BTC.
- Look for any new discourse on the quantum threat and whether market participants translate it into practical risk models or hedging strategies.
- Track macro risk sentiment, including inflation data and central bank signals, for indications that the broader risk appetite is shifting in favor of crypto assets.
Sources & verification
- Interview with Samson Mow discussing BTC’s pullback, catalysts for recovery, and cross-asset dynamics.
- YouTube video of the interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5VaqkszkWp8
- Discussion points on gold/silver rallies as a backdrop to BTC demand and capital rotation.
- References to the theoretical nature of the “quantum threat” within crypto risk discourse.
Bitcoin market reaction and catalysts for the next move
In a recent exchange, the market’s focus shifts beyond最近 price levels to the mechanics that drive BTC’s moves in a liquidity-driven system. In this framing, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is not simply a late-stage risk-on asset waiting for fundamentals to align; it is a constantly tradable currency in a global pool of capital that reacts quickly to shifts in risk appetite. Samson Mow outlines a nuanced picture: the same liquidity that enables Bitcoin to function as the most liquid asset in traditional markets also makes it susceptible to rapid downdrafts when liquidity tightens or risk aversion spikes. The result is a price action that can diverge from longer-term fundamentals, particularly in episodes marked by forced liquidations and cross-asset selling. This perspective emphasizes structure as much as signal, inviting readers to consider how order books, funding rates, and leverage levels contribute to the size and speed of BTC moves during market stress.
One of the central threads in the discussion is the relationship between Bitcoin and the metals complex. After a robust rally in gold and silver, capital rotation becomes a focal point: if investors seek safe havens or hedges against inflation, where does crypto stand in the pecking order? The interview presents a plausible scenario in which BTC could benefit after a metals-led reallocation cycle cools or consolidates. In such an environment, BTC’s liquidity and distribution across exchanges could attract new demand as risk premia recalibrate. The argument does not insist on an immediate rebound; rather, it frames recovery as a gradual reversion supported by improved risk sentiment, reduced forced liquidations, and a rebalancing of portfolios that previously parked capital in gold, silver, or other hard assets.
The discussion also touches on what many in the space consider a longer-term risk: the so‑called quantum threat. This is framed as a theoretical risk to crypto security and ecosystem confidence, not a near-term catalyst for price rallies or crashes. By keeping the focus on present market dynamics—liquidity, leverage, and risk‑on vs. risk‑off cycles—the interview distinguishes between potential future risks and the more immediate drivers of price action. In other words, while the quantum threat may merit attention for risk modeling and contingency planning, it is not presented as the catalyst for Bitcoin’s next move in the near term.
Beyond these threads, the interview revisits the long-standing narrative that Bitcoin’s price can be tied to fiat devaluation. This is a topic that has attracted both staunch believers and critics. The conversation presents a thoughtful counterpoint: even if fiat erosion remains a macro driver, market dynamics—such as liquidity, risk sentiment, and capital flows—can overshadow the fiat narrative in the short and medium term. The net takeaway is not a prediction but a careful reckoning of the multiple forces at play. In practice, readers are reminded to watch for shifts in funding markets and liquidity regimes that may signal the next inflection point for BTC.
For readers seeking a complete sense of the interview’s tone and content, the full video remains a key source. The embedded YouTube presentation provides direct access to Mow’s remarks and the nuances of his argument, offering a useful complement to the written summary. The format underscores a broader industry shift toward multi-source analysis—combining on-chain data, macro context, and participant perspectives—to form a more robust view of Bitcoin’s evolving trajectory.
Chinese regulators have broadened their crackdown on crypto activities, imposing strict oversight on tokenization and stablecoin issuance in a Friday notice.
“Recently, influenced by various factors, speculative activities related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets have occurred frequently, posing new challenges and situations for risk prevention and control,” said the notice, issued jointly by eight national organizations including the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC).
The notice reiterates China’s blanket ban on crypto, saying that trading, issuing or facilitating transactions involving digital currencies such as bitcoin , ether , or stablecoins like Tether’s USDT is illegal.
The prohibition extends to foreign entities and individuals offering such services within China. It also bans domestic entities from issuing digital currencies overseas without regulatory approval.
The notice singles out stablecoins — cryptocurrencies pegged to fiat currencies — for special scrutiny. Authorities argue stablecoins replicate key functions of sovereign money and therefore threaten monetary control.
The new rules make clear that no entity, Chinese or foreign, may issue a stablecoin linked to the renminbi abroad without government approval. That includes overseas branches of domestic firms.
The rules also tighten control over tokenization, the fast-growing trend of turning ownership of real-world assets like equities, real estate or funds into digital tokens.
Chinese firms that want to tokenize assets overseas now must obtain approvals or file with regulators, and their financial and tech partners are required to meet heightened compliance standards, the notice said.
China’s crackdown on cryptocurrencies and related activities have been a staple over the past years. The new set of rules build on Chinese authorities in 2021 deeming all crypto-related business activities illegal and prohibiting crypto mining, often called a “China ban.” In 2017, authorities banned Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs), labeling them as illegal fundraising and financial fraud, and ordered domestic cryptocurrency exchanges to shutter fiat-to-crypto trading operations.
Read more: China Never Completely Banned Crypto
Friday’s market saw a notable recovery in cryptocurrency prices, with Bitcoin and Litecoin leading the charge. Bitcoin’s bounce from the $60,000 level helped ease fears of a deeper market correction, as it rose nearly 8% to reclaim the $70,000 mark.
This surge also supported riskier altcoins like Litecoin, which is up about 8% for the day.
Summary
- Bitcoin surged nearly 8% to reclaim the $70,000 level on Friday, easing fears of a deeper correction and supporting altcoins like Litecoin and Shiba Inu.
- Litecoin saw an 8% increase, trading around $54, as traders rotated into altcoins following Bitcoin’s recovery and reduced margin stress.
- Shiba Inu climbed about 7%, benefiting from Bitcoin’s rebound and renewed investor interest in higher-beta tokens.
Why Bitcoin’s rise bodes well for Litecoin
Bitcoin remains the benchmark asset in the crypto space, and when it rallies, traders typically rotate into altcoins like Litecoin. As Bitcoin stabilizes, the risk of forced selling and liquidation cascades decreases, allowing traders to take fresh positions in altcoins.
This is particularly important after Bitcoin touched the $60,074 mark earlier on Friday, a key level that had traders on edge. The rebound reduced margin stress and bolstered sentiment across the market.
Bitcoin’s price recovery also helped offset the concerns raised by figures like Michael Burry, who warned that miners could be forced to sell their Bitcoin holdings if the price dropped below $50,000.
Litecoin’s Friday spike
Litecoin, created in 2011 by Charlie Lee, has seen an uptick in interest as Bitcoin recovers. Known as the “silver to Bitcoin’s gold,” Litecoin benefits from a long track record and strong exchange support. As of Friday, Litecoin is trading around $54, having hit an intraday high of $56.25.
Shiba Inu follows Bitcoin’s lead
Alongside Litecoin, meme-coin Shiba Inu (SHIB) also gained traction, climbing about 7%.
As Bitcoin recovered from its Thursday slump, large investors redeployed capital across the market, pulling speculative coins like Shiba Inu back into the green.
SHIB, which had faced pressure earlier in the week from market weakness and liquidations, is now benefiting from improved market sentiment.
What’s next for crypto?
Bitcoin’s recovery is giving traders a window to reposition in the market, but caution remains. Analysts suggest that while short-term bounces are possible, broader market trends still point to volatility. Key resistance for Bitcoin sits in the $70,000 to $75,000 range, with some traders speculating on further upward movement.
For now, the surge in Bitcoin’s price is driving positive sentiment in the market, with altcoins like Litecoin and Shiba Inu benefiting from the rebound.
TLDR:
- Bitcoin and Ethereum fall below key technical levels, triggering $1.7B in liquidations.
- U.S. Treasury confirms it cannot “bail out” Bitcoin or direct banks to increase holdings.
- Spot ETFs face unrealized losses, but most investor positions remain largely intact.
- Crypto funding continues selectively with TRM Labs, Flying Tulip, and Prometheum rounds.
Recent analysis covers major shifts in digital assets, including sharp price drops, regulatory actions, and institutional responses affecting market flows and positioning.
Crypto Market Downturn and Institutional Exposure
Bitcoin fell below $65,000, while Ethereum dropped under $1,900, triggering $1.7 billion in liquidations within 24 hours. Most liquidations came from long positions, as leveraged traders exited rapidly across major exchanges.
The market broke key technical levels, with Bitcoin falling under the 50-week moving average. Analysts used historical retracements to estimate downside, with targets ranging from $35,200 to $45,000.
Alex Thorn from Galaxy Digital noted that past cycles showed drops below 50-week moving averages often tested the 200-week level near $58,000.
Meanwhile, the cost basis for many institutional investors remained above current prices.
Strategy Inc.’s average holding cost is around $76,000 per Bitcoin, while JPMorgan estimates mining costs at $87,000.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs are also under pressure, with average entry costs near $84,100 per coin.
Despite a 25% unrealized loss, only a small portion of ETF assets has been withdrawn.
Overall, the market shows lower liquidity, technical weakness, and elevated institutional stress.
ETF inflows slowed, and macro-hedging appeal has reduced, reflecting cautious sentiment.
Regulation, Policy Signals, and Capital Movements
Seized Bitcoin has grown in value from $500 million to over $15 billion, reflecting market gains despite volatility. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent clarified that seized Bitcoin will be retained, but the government cannot “bail out” prices.
Regulatory attention is shifting to crypto infrastructure, focusing on exchanges, stablecoin corridors, and liquidity hubs.
The Treasury investigates potential sanction evasion, particularly by platforms linked to Iran’s $8–10 billion annual crypto activity.
Meanwhile, the White House hosted discussions with Coinbase, banking groups, and industry representatives on stablecoin rewards. The dialogue explored whether third-party platforms can provide regulated yields to users.
At the same time, state-level enforcement increased, with New York, Nevada, and Connecticut issuing warnings or restraining orders. This divergence reflects the evolving balance between federal guidance and state-level actions.
Capital formation continues cautiously. TRM Labs raised $70 million in Series C funding, while Flying Tulip secured $75.5 million. Prometheum and Penguin Securities also completed rounds, albeit at more conservative valuations.
Despite market stress, selective funding demonstrates ongoing investor interest in blockchain and crypto infrastructure projects. Family offices largely remain sidelined, with 89% holding no crypto exposure, while AI investments show higher interest.
BlackRock’s Bitcoin spot ETF IBIT retains most assets despite AUM retreat from $100 billion to $60 billion. Overall, institutional positioning reflects cautious engagement, regulatory attention, and selective capital deployment.
Bitcoin has bounced roughly 17% from Friday’s $60,150 trough, but the rebound has not erased the undercurrent of caution rippling through the derivatives market. Traders remain wary of chasing fresh upside exposure as the price hovers near the $70,000 level, with liquidity dynamics painting a mixed picture. In the past five sessions, leveraged bullish futures liquidations totaled about $1.8 billion, fueling speculation that major hedge funds or market makers may have faced sizable losses. The market’s struggle to sustain momentum after Thursday’s skid highlights how fragile appetite for risk remains, even as the price attempt to reclaim ground continues.
Key takeaways
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Bitcoin’s derivatives signals point to elevated caution, with the options skew measuring roughly 20% on the week as traders weigh a potential second wave of fund liquidations.
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While the price retraced some of Thursday’s losses, the rally is not translating into broad demand for new long exposure, especially when compared with gold and technology equities.
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Aggregate futures liquidations indicate a recent wave of forced liquidations, but open interest on major venues remains steady, suggesting mixed conviction among bulls and sellers.
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The futures market shows cooling demand for bullish leverage, with the BTC futures basis rate sinking to the lowest in over a year, underscoring a cautious stance despite a price move above key levels.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC
Sentiment: Bearish
Market context: The current dynamics unfold against a backdrop of tepid leverage appetite in crypto markets, with options and futures signals diverging from spot-price gains. Investors are reevaluating risk, liquidity, and potential catalysts that could reaccelerate a broader uptrend, while systemic concerns about market-makers and liquidity have kept participants cautious.
Why it matters
The present mood in the Bitcoin market illustrates a broader tension between price action and risk appetite embedded in derivatives markets. The rally from Friday’s low has been constrained by a thinning of upside demand, suggesting that buyers are selective and selective exposure remains the name of the game. For market participants, the key takeaway is not a lack of interest in Bitcoin per se, but a hesitation to deploy fresh leverage when volatility remains high and liquidity conditions are not uniformly supportive.
The liquidation backdrop underscores how fragile liquidations can ripple through the marketplace. When approximately $1.8 billion of leveraged bullish futures contracts liquidate over a five-day window, it can prompt a reassessment of risk by major players, potentially widening bid-ask spreads and triggering protective selling pressures that outlive the immediate move. This environment makes it harder for bulls to build sustained momentum, even as the price tests and briefly surpasses notable thresholds.
On the sentiment front, the skew in options markets provides a counterpoint to price recovery. A 20% two-month options skew signals persistent fear and a premium placed on downside protection. In calmer times, a higher demand for calls—indicative of optimism—would push the skew down toward neutral readings. Instead, the market appears more attuned to the risk of further losses than to a runaway rally. The lack of a clear catalyst for a renewed surge adds to the sense that any upside may be incremental and exposed to negative surprises if liquidity tightens or macro risk shifts.
Traders will be watching whether institutions that have been operating behind the scenes—market makers, hedge funds, or proprietary desks—adjust their risk models in the near term. The fear of an unseen balance-sheet event can weigh on market psychology, particularly when combined with ongoing questions about systemic leverage in the crypto space. While some bulls have been adding exposure as prices attempt to climb toward and beyond $70,000, the overall tone remains cautious, with the derivatives landscape signaling that risk-off tendencies could reassert themselves if new liquidity concerns or regulatory headlines surface.
The current narrative also invites a closer look at the relationship between price movements and hedging behavior. The apparent dissonance between a late-week price rally and dwindling leverage demand raises questions about what comes next for Bitcoin’s trajectory. If the price can sustain its gains without drawing in a broader wave of leverage, a potential scenario could involve a gradual reaccumulation of long positions. Conversely, any renewed shock—whether from leverage unwind, a regulatory development, or macro catalysts—could accelerate a fresh wave of selling pressure, given the fragile confidence that currently characterizes the market.
The data paints a picture of a market tentatively treading water near critical levels. The aggregated Bitcoin futures open interest across major exchanges stood at roughly 527,850 BTC on Friday, essentially flat versus the prior week, even as the notional value of those contracts declined from about $44.3 billion to $35.8 billion. The juxtaposition—steady open interest with a sharp drop in notional exposure—reflects a snapshot of risk being redistributed rather than a wholesale shift in bullish conviction. It implies that while some traders are choosing to run hedges or reduce exposure, others are still accumulating, albeit cautiously, with a renewed emphasis on margin discipline as prices move in and out of the $70,000 region.
To contextualize whether larger players are reconsidering risk, the BTC futures basis rate—an indicator of the premium paid for futures relative to spot over a set horizon—fell to about 2% on Friday, the lowest in more than a year. In neutral conditions, the annualized premium would typically sit in a 5%–10% range to compensate for the settlement lag. The decline signals a cooling appetite for bullish leverage, even as the price manages to breach the psychological threshold of $70,000. This divergence between price strength and leverage appetite helps explain why the market has yet to embark on a fresh, sustained ascent and why traders remain alert to potential pullbacks if liquidity tightens or risk sentiment worsens.
Options dynamics add another layer of caution. The BTC options market has shown a growing tendency to put protection against downside moves, a hallmark of risk-averse positioning. A prominent feature in the latest readings is the elevated put-call skew, which suggests traders were willing to pay a premium to insure against declines. The skew’s elevation aligns with periods of market stress in which fear and uncertainty dominate price action. While some participants might anticipate a sharper comeback if macro conditions stabilize, the absence of a compelling bullish catalyst leaves room for continued volatility and potential dissipations in sentiment as the market digests new information.
The current mood sits within a broader narrative where fear and uncertainty have grown even without a singular, obvious catalyst. A widely cited discussion—What’s really weighing on Bitcoin? Samson Mow breaks it down—highlights structural concerns in the market’s structure and liquidity dynamics. While there is no single event driving the downturn, the combination of forced liquidations, a fragile risk appetite, and a cautious options market reinforces a narrative of vulnerability that could persist in the near term.
Traders are likely to continue weighing the possibility that a large market maker or hedge fund could be facing distress, and this sentiment tends to erode conviction and raise the odds of downside moves. In such an environment, the probability of a durable bullish breakout remains tempered, even as Bitcoin shows signs of breaking beyond key price levels. As the market digests ongoing data and seeks stability, participants should prepare for continued volatility and carefully monitor leverage, funding dynamics, and macro headlines that could tilt sentiment anew.
Bitcoin suffered a flash crash to $55,000 on South Korean exchange Bithumb this week after what appears to have been a major internal accounting error.
Bithumb mistakenly credited users with 2,000 BTC each instead of a small reward worth 2,000 Korean won (about $1.50), according to a blog post on Friday.
The result was tens of millions of dollars’ worth of phantom bitcoin appearing in hundreds of user accounts. No bitcoin was moved onchain, and inflated balances existed only in Bithumb’s internal ledger.
Users who suddenly saw enormous balances wasted little time trying to sell, triggering a sharp selloff on Bithumb’s BTC/KRW pair, sending prices 15.8% below other exchanges. At one point, BTC traded at 81 million won ($55,000) while prices elsewhere remained relatively stable.
Bithumb said it identified the abnormal transactions through internal controls and restricted trading in the affected accounts shortly after the incident.
The exchange said prices on its platform normalized within about five minutes and that its liquidation prevention system operated as intended, preventing any cascading forced liquidations linked to the price movement.
The company added that the incident was not related to an external hack or security breach and that customer assets remain secure.
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