Crypto World
Moderna (MRNA) Stock Slips Despite Beating Q4 Revenue and Earnings Estimates
TLDR
- Moderna reported Q4 revenue of $678 million, beating Wall Street estimates of $626.1 million, driven by COVID-19 vaccine sales
- The company posted a quarterly loss of $2.11 per share, narrower than the $2.54 per share loss analysts expected
- Moderna reiterated its 2026 revenue growth target of 10% and expects 50% of sales from U.S. markets and 50% from international
- FDA refused to review Moderna’s flu vaccine application this week, citing trial design flaws, despite internal staff reviewers supporting the review
- Moderna stock slipped 0.3% in premarket trading Friday despite beating earnings, after rising 36% year-to-date through Thursday
Moderna shares dipped 0.3% in premarket trading Friday even after the biotech company delivered quarterly results that topped Wall Street expectations. The mixed reaction highlights investor concerns about the company’s path forward after a rough week.
The Cambridge-based vaccine maker reported fourth-quarter revenue of $678 million. That beat analyst estimates of $626.1 million.
Full-year 2025 sales reached $1.94 billion, surpassing the $1.89 billion consensus estimate. COVID-19 vaccine sales drove the better-than-expected performance.
Moderna posted a quarterly loss of $2.11 per share. Analysts had projected a steeper loss of $2.54 per share. The latest loss was narrower than the $2.91 per share loss recorded in the same quarter last year.
CEO Stéphane Bancel said the company entered the year “with strong momentum despite the continued challenging environment in the U.S.” The company reaffirmed its expectation for 10% revenue growth in 2026 compared to 2025.
Wall Street currently expects revenue growth of about 6% for the year. Moderna forecast research and development expenses of roughly $3 billion for 2026, matching analyst estimates.
FDA Setback Casts Shadow
The earnings beat came days after a setback with regulators. The FDA refused Tuesday to review Moderna’s seasonal flu vaccine application.
FDA vaccine chief Vinay Prasad said the company should have compared its vaccine to standard high-dose flu shots for older adults. Moderna ran its trial using regular-dose comparisons, which the company says FDA approved 18 months ago.
Internal FDA staff reviewers had supported moving forward with the review. Prasad overruled them, according to a Wednesday report from Stat.
Moderna criticized the decision and said it was awaiting further guidance on refiling. The company has been counting on its flu vaccine and a future COVID-flu combination shot to drive future growth.
Looking Ahead to 2026
The company expects about 50% of 2026 sales to come from U.S. markets. International markets will account for the remaining half.
Bancel said Moderna expects to meet its 2026 targets through expansion of its next-generation COVID vaccine. Strategic partnerships in international markets will also play a role.
Shares had climbed 36% year-to-date through Thursday’s close. Positive Phase 2b trial results for an intismeran autogene vaccine used in melanoma treatment drove much of the rally.
The company continues working on newer products to offset declining COVID vaccine demand. Sales have struggled since the pandemic windfall years when demand for COVID shots collapsed.
Moderna’s full-year 2025 revenue of $1.94 billion came in above the $1.89 billion analyst consensus, while the company maintains its 10% revenue growth target for 2026.
Despite a decline in the price of XRP in the last year, Ripple is expected to reach a valuation 25% higher than reported after a November 2025 funding round.
Ripple Labs reportedly plans to buy back up to $750 million worth of shares from investors and employees in a program set to give the company a $50 billion valuation.
According to a Wednesday Bloomberg report, Ripple plans to run a tender offer for the shares through April. The $750 million buyback program will reportedly value the company at $50 billion, 25% higher than the valuation assigned following its $500 million raise in November 2025. The company’s president, Monica Long, said at the time that Ripple had no plans to go public.
The reported buyback follows Ripple’s expansion of operations beyond the crypto industry, including through the $1.2 billion acquisition of non-bank prime broker Hidden Road and treasury management system provider GTreasury in October. Earlier this week, the company said that it would move forward with plans for a financial services license in Australia through the acquisition of a local payments firm.
On Monday, Ripple reported that it had processed more than $100 billion in transactions, with its stablecoin, Ripple USD (RLUSD) exceeding a $1 billion market capitalization since its launch in December 2024. The price of XRP (XRP) has fallen more than 53% in the previous six months, trading hands at $1.39 at the time of publication.
Related: Ripple expands stablecoin payments stack for banks, fintechs
Data from private shares platform Forge Global showed more than a 9% drop in Ripple’s private share price as of Wednesday.
Making progress with US national trust bank charter
In December, the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency announced that it had conditionally approved Ripple and other crypto companies for national trust bank charters. The company specifically said in its application that the charter would “not be a stablecoin issuer” for RLUSD.
Magazine: All 21 million Bitcoin is at risk from quantum computers
Risk Labs, the team behind cross-chain bridging protocol Across, is proposing to dissolve the project’s token-based DAO structure and transition its operations to a newly formed U.S. C-corporation.
“Across has moved billions and billions of assets between chains, and we have helped unify Ethereum and all its chains. I’m proud of what we’ve built, and I believe this proposal lets us double down on our future while benefiting all existing tokenholders,” co-founder Hart Lambur wrote on X.
Under the plan, ACX token holders would be given two options: exchange their tokens for equity in the new company at a 1:1 ratio, or sell their tokens for USDC at $0.04375 — a 25% premium over the trailing 30-day average price.
ACX surged 70% on the news to $0.06, or a $60 million valuation. However, the token is still down 96% from its all-time high of $1.69 in December 2024, according to Coingecko.
Holders with more than 5 million ACX will be able to convert directly to equity, while smaller holders can participate through a no-fee special purpose vehicle (SPV) structure.
Risk Labs framed the move as a response to friction the team has encountered while working with institutional and enterprise partners. The current token and DAO structure, the team said, has materially impacted its ability to close partnerships. A traditional corporate entity, they argue, would unlock new commercial opportunities and enable entry into enforceable contracts.
The protocol’s liquid assets, roughly equivalent to its current market cap, would be used to finance the buyout, with a six-month redemption window expected to open within three months of the proposal passing.
“This proposal is a temperature check, and nothing will be decided without dialogue and a formal DAO vote,” Lambur added.
Across raised $41 million last year from prominent investors, including Paradigm, Bain Capital Crypto, Coinbase Ventures, and Multicoin Capital.
Looking ahead, Lambur said Across plans to focus on stablecoin bridging and agentic payments, teasing “two more yet-to-be-announced deals that make moving money free for users.”
A new OpenClaw skill from CoinFello addresses a key security issue with AI agents using crypto.
The team behind AI agent CoinFello today announced the release of an open-source skill that lets AI agents securely connect to MetaMask and execute on-chain transactions, without ever handling a user’s private keys.
The skill lets OpenClaw-based personal AI agents, known as MoltBots, transact with designated amounts of crypto from an existing MetaMask wallet, without the wallet’s owner giving up custody of their private keys, per a press release shared with The Defiant.
The agent skill is built via the MetaMask Smart Accounts Kit, using ERC-4337 smart accounts and ERC-7710 delegations. CoinFello’s founder and CEO, known as Jacob C, was previously lead of operations at MetaMask.
The release addresses a core vulnerability in how most AI agent wallets currently operate: agents are typically given direct access to private keys or API credentials, which are then vulnerable to prompt injection attacks, per the release.
CoinFello says its approach allows users to grant agents only the narrowly scoped permissions needed for a specific task.
“If we want agents to participate meaningfully in the onchain economy, we need a security model that is better than handing an autonomous system a private key,” said Brett Cleary, CTO at CoinFello.
MetaMask didn’t publicly comment on CoinFello’s skill release today, but ahead of the skill’s debut at ETHDenver in February, MetaMask’s product team signaled support for the approach.
“We’re pleased to collaborate with the CoinFello team as they bring agent-driven experiences to users through the MetaMask Smart Accounts Kit,” Ryan McPeck, product lead at Consensys for the MetaMask Smart Accounts Kit, was quoted as saying at the time, adding:
“We see a future where AI agents can safely act on behalf of users using granular, transitive permissions that allow individuals to define how activity is executed on-chain.”
Supported capabilities include ERC-20 token swaps, bridging across Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) chains, NFT interactions, staking, lending, and multi-step trading strategies — all triggered via natural-language prompts. The skill is released under the MIT license, per the release.
The launch lands as the OpenClaw and MoltBot ecosystem has surged in recent months. As The Defiant reported, the viral growth of AI-only social platform Moltbook — mostly populated by OpenClaw agents — drove record token activity on Base-based launchpad Clanker earlier this year.
Yesterday, Axios reported that Meta, the parent company of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, has acquired Moltbook, bringing its two founders into Meta’s AI division.
This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.
PI bulls took over the initiative as the price exploded higher.
PI Network (PI) Price Predictions: Analysis
Key support levels: $0.20
Key resistance levels: $0.28
PI Breakout Turns into a Rally
Since the breakout from the downtrend in February, PI has entered a sustained rally that saw its price pump by over 80% since its most recent bottom. This is a significant change in the price action that shows interest has returned.
The buy volume also exploded with two major impulses, one in mid-February during the breakout and the second in early March that saw the resistance at 20 cents turn into a key support.
PI is Eying 28 Cents
With the support at 20 cents secured, bulls can aim to take PI to 28 cents next. In the past, this level acted as a key resistance and may see sellers return there. At the time of this post, the price is around 23 cents. Therefore, there is still plenty of room to go higher before that.
The most important thing right now is for buyers to consolidate their recent gains and defend the key support should sellers show up to avoid a loss of positive momentum.
Daily RSI is Overbought
The most recent spike above 20 cents has taken the daily RSI into the overbought area at 80 points. Since then, this momentum indicator has cooled down and fell under 70. Nevertheless, this is a warning sign that buyers could get overextended soon.
Still, as long as the RSI is making higher highs and higher lows, the initiative remains firmly in the hands of buyers and this indicator can stay overbought for quite some time until a correction materializes.
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Matt Hougan believes Bitcoin only needs 17% of a $121 trillion store-of-value market to reach a $1 million valuation.
Bitcoin could reach $1 million if it captures roughly 17% of a projected $121 trillion global store-of-value market, according to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management.
In a recent memo, he explained how long-term market expansion could support significantly higher prices for the digital asset.
Math Behind The Target
Hougan said the idea initially appears unrealistic because a $1 million valuation would require Bitcoin to increase roughly 14 times from its current price, a target he himself once dismissed in 2018, when BTC was trading near $4,000.
However, after studying the asset’s role in financial markets, he said the common mistake in evaluating Bitcoin’s long-term potential is treating the store-of-value market as fixed rather than expanding. Hougan described Bitcoin as an emerging digital store-of-value asset that competes with gold by allowing investors to hold wealth outside traditional fiat currencies and banking systems, although he acknowledged that the cryptocurrency remains more volatile and less established than the metal.
According to the Bitwise exec, estimating BTC’s potential value involves calculating the total size of the global store-of-value market, estimating the portion Bitcoin could capture, and dividing that value by the asset’s maximum supply of 21 million units. Based on current figures, Hougan said the store-of-value market totals just under $38 trillion, including about $36 trillion in gold and roughly $1.4 trillion in Bitcoin. This implies that BTC currently represents slightly less than 4% of that market.
Under those conditions, he said a $1 million BTC price would appear unrealistic because the cryptocurrency would need to capture more than half of the existing store-of-value market. He described this scenario as a “high bar.” However, the CIO noted that the market itself has grown significantly over time and may continue expanding. He pointed to the growth of the metal’s market capitalization over the past two decades, and added that when the first US gold exchange-traded fund launched in 2004, the global market was worth about $2.5 trillion.
Since then, the value of gold has increased to nearly $40 trillion, representing a compound annual growth rate of roughly 13%, driven by concerns about government debt levels, geopolitical uncertainty, loose monetary policy, and other macroeconomic factors. Hougan said that if the broader store-of-value market continues growing at a similar pace, it could reach approximately $121 trillion within the next decade.
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Under that scenario, Bitcoin would only need to capture about 17% of the market to reach a valuation of $1 million per BTC. Hougan acknowledged that this would still represent significant growth, as BTC’s current share remains around 4%, but said recent developments suggest that expanding adoption could make such a shift possible.
Key Risks
Despite the optimistic outlook, Hougan said there are risks that could prevent the scenario from unfolding. He noted that the store-of-value market may not continue growing at the same pace seen over the past two decades, which included events such as the global financial crisis, the widespread adoption of quantitative easing, and a prolonged period of low interest rates.
A slowdown in those trends could also lead to declining gold prices. Another possibility is that Bitcoin fails to capture additional market share.
At the same time, Hougan said it is also possible that current projections underestimate the asset’s potential if concerns about rising government debt intensify and investors increasingly turn to alternative stores of value. Under his base-case scenario, he said the store-of-value market would continue expanding while Bitcoin gradually increases its share. He added that such a combination could result in prices far above current levels.
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Tom Lee says Bitcoin’s rally during an oil surge tied to Middle East tensions shows the asset passed a key stress test.
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee has said that Bitcoin passed a major test after it rallied over the weekend while oil prices surged due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
According to him, the price action was a sign that the massive deleveraging from last October is finally behind the market, allowing Bitcoin to re-emerge as a credible store of value.
The Speculation Has Been Cleared Out
Lee was speaking to CNBC’s Scott Wapner on the sidelines of the Future Proof conference in Miami, where he pointed out that the crypto market had already been through its bear market.
“We had a bear market already in software, the Mag-7 and in crypto,” he said. “I think that’s already taken out a lot of speculation.”
He also said he expects markets to close March in positive territory and potentially reach 5,300 on the S&P 500 later in the year. However, he warned that there might be a 20% decline at some point, which would likely be when markets stop responding to good news.
On Bitcoin specifically, Lee was direct. When pressed by Wapner on whether the OG cryptocurrency had failed as a safe haven, given that gold outperformed during the most recent stretch of market stress, Lee acknowledged the weakness but framed it as a product of extreme conditions.
“Bitcoin did basically break on October 10 because that was the biggest deleveraging event in the history of crypto,” he said. “When gold went up, Bitcoin went down.”
But according to him, that’s all in the past. “We have gone through a winter where a lot of the speculation and the leverage is gone,” he said, pointing to the weekend’s price action as a turning point, with BTC holding up in the face of oil prices climbing sharply when Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz.
“This weekend kind of showed Bitcoin is coming back in vogue as a store of value,” Lee said, noting that BTC held above $70,000 even as oil moved aggressively higher.
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Where Bitcoin Stands Now
As of the time of this writing, Bitcoin was trading at around $70,000, only dropping 0.2% in the last 24 hours after briefly touching $71,600 per CoinGecko data. Over the past week, it is up about 3% and up nearly 7% across two weeks, although it remains down around 12% year-on-year and sits more than 44% below its October 2025 all-time high.
The picture from on-chain data is mixed, with Binance Research analysis showing approximately 29,000 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges while the price traded in the $65,000 to $75,000 range, a pattern that contrasts with an earlier sell-off from $92,000 to $62,000 when exchange balances were rising.
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Bitcoin’s resilience during the latest bout of global macro stress is starting to turn heads on trading desks.
The largest crypto climbed to just shy of $71,000, up roughly 7% from Sunday evening lows, even as geopolitical tensions escalated over the Iran conflict and markets grappled with risks ranging from oil supply disruptions to stress in private credit markets.
That relative strength is beginning to stand out. The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 have been roughly flat over the same time, while gold — typically a go-to safe haven during turmoil — has booked only modest gains. Looking at performance so far in March, BTC is the only one of the three posting gains.
Bitcoin is also showing early signs of breaking away from its tight correlation with embattled software stocks. Over the past five days, BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF (IBIT) is up 3.75%, while the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) is down 2.45%.
The price action is turning analysts cautiously optimistic that the crypto market may finally be stabilizing after months of declines.
Seller exhaustion
Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at Nansen, said one encouraging signal is how little BTC has reacted to fresh geopolitical headlines.
Earlier in the week, a brief wave of optimism lifted equities and crypto alongside softer oil prices, suggesting markets were tentatively pricing in a potential de-escalation in the Iran conflict. But as the session progressed, that optimism faded, and risk assets gave back some of their gains.
“Bitcoin’s downside sensitivity has been relatively limited,” she said, noting that some traditional benchmarks such as the Euro Stoxx index have fallen more sharply during the same period.
That resilience suggests the marginal seller in bitcoin may be less aggressive than in equities, Barthere added.
Shifting correlation with gold
Another shift catching traders’ attention is bitcoin’s changing relationship with gold.
According to Bryan Tan, trader at crypto trading firm Wintermute, the BTC–gold correlation has flipped positive, moving to +0.16 from -0.49 a week ago.
During the initial phase of the Middle East conflict, bitcoin fell while gold rallied in a classic risk-off move, Tan noted. More recently, both assets have risen together while the U.S. dollar weakened, suggesting investors may be starting to treat them as beneficiaries of dollar softness rather than opposing risk trades.
“If this correlation continues trending positively, it shifts the narrative around BTC in a conflict environment from ‘sell the risk asset’ to something more nuanced,” Tan said.
ETF flows return
Improving bitcoin ETF flows may also be supporting the recent strength.
Bitcoin ETF flows had been trending negative for months following the peak in October. But data from the past two weeks shows a notable improvement, noted Joe Edwards, head of research at Enigma, particularly with consistent inflows into BlackRock’s IBIT fund, the largest of the bitcoin ETFs.
A sustained recovery in ETF demand could be critical for bitcoin, he added. A sustained recovery in ETF demand could be critical, he added. Many analysts believe bitcoin’s next phase of growth depends on access to deeper institutional capital pools, such as ETF investors in brokerage accounts. With that in mind, the recent wave of outflows was concerning, Edwards said.
The “good news,” he said, is that there are signs of that period ending.
IBIT has attracted nearly $1 billion in fresh inflows so far in March, after losing more than $3 billion between November and February, data by SoSoValue shows.
If the trend holds through the coming weeks, Edwards argued, it could support a broader bitcoin recovery into the second quarter.
Binance’s U.S. affiliate has hired veteran compliance executive Stephen Gregory as CEO to steady the platform under tougher U.S. scrutiny and reboot a regulated growth story.
Summary
- Gregory replaces Norman Reed as Binance.US CEO, with Reed staying on as advisor to preserve continuity while handing control to a compliance‑driven operator.
- The new chief has held senior roles at Currency.com, Gemini, and CEX.io, bringing hands‑on experience with licensing regimes, supervision and crypto compliance frameworks.
- Under Gregory, Binance.US plans to expand its Earn and staking lineup and add cleaner access to DeFi and tokenized assets, pitching itself as a ring‑fenced, regulation‑first U.S. venue
Binance’s U.S. affiliate, Binance.US, has appointed seasoned compliance executive Stephen Gregory as its new CEO, effective March 9, as it tries to stabilize operations and pivot back to growth under heavier U.S. regulatory scrutiny. Gregory replaces Norman Reed, who will remain with the company as an advisor, preserving some continuity while handing day‑to‑day control to a leader with deep experience at regulated crypto platforms.
Gregory’s résumé is the point of the hire. He has held senior roles at Currency, Gemini, and CEX.io, giving him direct exposure to building compliance programs, dealing with U.S. regulators, and running exchange businesses under licensing regimes. For Binance.US—long dogged by enforcement actions and governance questions at the global group level—installing a CEO whose brand is “compliance first” is an attempt to convince counterparties, banks, and policymakers that the platform can operate as a clean, ring‑fenced U.S. venue.
Under Gregory’s leadership, Binance.US plans to expand its Earn suite, staking services, and access points to DeFi and tokenized assets, targeting both crypto‑native users and more traditional investors. That means pushing deeper into yield products, integrating more on‑chain strategies behind the scenes, and packaging them in a form that can pass regulatory muster and internal risk committees. If executed, the strategy would reposition Binance.US not just as a cheap spot venue, but as a broader digital asset gateway competing with Coinbase, Kraken, and emerging broker‑dealers on product breadth as well as fees.
The stakes are high. Any misstep on compliance or disclosures will land harder under a CEO explicitly hired for his regulatory credentials, while success could give Binance.US a path to rebuild market share without inheriting all of the baggage associated with its offshore sibling. For U.S. traders and institutions, the message is clear: Binance.US wants to be seen less as a shadow of the global brand and more as a domestically focused, compliance‑heavy platform that can still deliver competitive liquidity, staking, and structured access to DeFi.
Crypto platform Bullish (BLSH), which operates an institutional-only crypto exchange business, climbed into the top three centralized crypto exchanges by spot trading volume for the first time in February, overtaking Coinbase (COIN) as trading activity across the industry slowed, according to CoinDesk Data’s February Exchange Review.
Spot trading volumes on Bullish, which is the parent company of CoinDesk, rose 62.6% month over month to $76 billion, the exchange’s highest monthly total since October 2025. The surge lifted Bullish’s market share to 5.06%, up 2.04 percentage points, making it the third-largest centralized exchange by spot trading volume.
The increase pushed Bullish, which went public on the New York Stock Exchange last year, ahead of Coinbase (COIN), which held a 4.59% share of the spot market during the month.
The milestone comes even as overall activity on centralized exchanges declined. Combined spot and derivatives trading volumes fell 2.41% in February to $5.61 trillion, the lowest level recorded since October 2024, the report said.
The slowdown coincided with subdued volatility in major cryptocurrencies. Despite heavy volatility in the first and last weeks of February, bitcoin spent much of the month trading in a narrow range between $60,000 and $70,000, limiting speculative activity that often drives higher trading volumes.
Spot trading accounted for $1.50 trillion of that total, down 3.01% from January. Derivatives trading fell 2.41% to $4.11 trillion but remained the dominant force, accounting for 73.2% of all trading on centralized exchanges, the report said.
While Binance remained the dominant exchange by a wide margin, recording $331 billion in spot trading volume during February, which represents about 22% market share, its dominance declined to its lowest monthly level since October 2020, suggesting trading activity is becoming more distributed across competing platforms.
Bullish’s rise in the rankings highlights shifting dynamics among centralized exchanges amid intensifying competition. Exchanges are increasingly competing on liquidity, trading incentives, and new product offerings to attract traders during periods of slower market activity. Some have partnered with major U.S. stock exchanges to offer tokenized securities or have launched prediction market trading.
ETH and SOL gained 1% while XRP is flat on the day.
Crypto markets extended their gains on Wednesday after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the consumer price index increased 0.3% for the month, putting the annualized U.S. inflation rate at 2.4%, in line with expectations.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at around $70,500, up 0.5% over the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, ETH climbed 1.4% to $2,070, SOL gained 1.2% to $87, and XRP is flat on the day.
The overall crypto market capitalization climbed 0.5% to $2.48 trillion, according to Coingecko.
Crude oil (WTI) is trading at around $85 per barrel after International Energy Agency (IEA) member nations pledged to release 400 million barrels from their emergency stockpiles. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were unchanged on the day.
Most of the Top 100 digital assets posted gains over the last 24 hours.
Today’s top gainers are Internet Computer (ICP), which rallied 9%, followed by Hyperliquid (HYPE), which climbed 6%.
Midnight (NIGHT) and Zcash (ZEC) are the biggest losers
Around 94,000 leveraged traders were liquidated for $183 million in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGlass. Bitcoin accounted for $62 million, while ETH positions made up $44 million.
Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded inflows of $251 million on Tuesday.
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