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Moderna (MRNA) Stock Slips Despite Beating Q4 Revenue and Earnings Estimates

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MRNA Stock Card

TLDR

  • Moderna reported Q4 revenue of $678 million, beating Wall Street estimates of $626.1 million, driven by COVID-19 vaccine sales
  • The company posted a quarterly loss of $2.11 per share, narrower than the $2.54 per share loss analysts expected
  • Moderna reiterated its 2026 revenue growth target of 10% and expects 50% of sales from U.S. markets and 50% from international
  • FDA refused to review Moderna’s flu vaccine application this week, citing trial design flaws, despite internal staff reviewers supporting the review
  • Moderna stock slipped 0.3% in premarket trading Friday despite beating earnings, after rising 36% year-to-date through Thursday

Moderna shares dipped 0.3% in premarket trading Friday even after the biotech company delivered quarterly results that topped Wall Street expectations. The mixed reaction highlights investor concerns about the company’s path forward after a rough week.

The Cambridge-based vaccine maker reported fourth-quarter revenue of $678 million. That beat analyst estimates of $626.1 million.

Full-year 2025 sales reached $1.94 billion, surpassing the $1.89 billion consensus estimate. COVID-19 vaccine sales drove the better-than-expected performance.


MRNA Stock Card
Moderna, Inc., MRNA

Moderna posted a quarterly loss of $2.11 per share. Analysts had projected a steeper loss of $2.54 per share. The latest loss was narrower than the $2.91 per share loss recorded in the same quarter last year.

CEO Stéphane Bancel said the company entered the year “with strong momentum despite the continued challenging environment in the U.S.” The company reaffirmed its expectation for 10% revenue growth in 2026 compared to 2025.

Wall Street currently expects revenue growth of about 6% for the year. Moderna forecast research and development expenses of roughly $3 billion for 2026, matching analyst estimates.

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FDA Setback Casts Shadow

The earnings beat came days after a setback with regulators. The FDA refused Tuesday to review Moderna’s seasonal flu vaccine application.

FDA vaccine chief Vinay Prasad said the company should have compared its vaccine to standard high-dose flu shots for older adults. Moderna ran its trial using regular-dose comparisons, which the company says FDA approved 18 months ago.

Internal FDA staff reviewers had supported moving forward with the review. Prasad overruled them, according to a Wednesday report from Stat.

Moderna criticized the decision and said it was awaiting further guidance on refiling. The company has been counting on its flu vaccine and a future COVID-flu combination shot to drive future growth.

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Looking Ahead to 2026

The company expects about 50% of 2026 sales to come from U.S. markets. International markets will account for the remaining half.

Bancel said Moderna expects to meet its 2026 targets through expansion of its next-generation COVID vaccine. Strategic partnerships in international markets will also play a role.

Shares had climbed 36% year-to-date through Thursday’s close. Positive Phase 2b trial results for an intismeran autogene vaccine used in melanoma treatment drove much of the rally.

The company continues working on newer products to offset declining COVID vaccine demand. Sales have struggled since the pandemic windfall years when demand for COVID shots collapsed.

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Moderna’s full-year 2025 revenue of $1.94 billion came in above the $1.89 billion analyst consensus, while the company maintains its 10% revenue growth target for 2026.

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Crypto World

Solana price breaks bearish structure, $95 target in focus

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Solana price breaks local bearish structure as $95 target comes into focus - 1

Solana price has broken its short-term bearish structure, signaling a potential momentum shift that could open the door for a bullish expansion toward the $95 resistance zone.

Summary

  • Local bearish trend invalidated, signaling a shift in short-term momentum
  • Holding above the value area low supports higher-low formation
  • $95 high-timeframe resistance is the next target, if bullish structure persists

Solana (SOL) price action is showing a notable improvement in structure after breaking out of a local bearish downtrend that had controlled price movement for much of the week. This shift marks an important technical development, as Solana has now printed a new high, signalling a potential transition away from short-term bearish control.

While broader market conditions remain mixed, the change in local structure suggests that downside momentum is weakening. If Solana can continue to build acceptance above key value levels, the probability of a sustained move toward higher resistance increases.

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Solana price key technical points

  • Local bearish market structure has been broken, confirming a higher high
  • Value area low remains intact, supporting higher-low formation
  • $95 high-timeframe resistance is the next upside target, if momentum persists
Solana price breaks local bearish structure as $95 target comes into focus - 1
SOLUSDT (4H) Chart, Source: TradingView

The recent price action on Solana has produced a clear break in market structure on the lower timeframes. After a prolonged period of lower highs and lower lows, Solana has now pushed above prior resistance and established a new swing high. This move invalidates the immediate bearish trend and shifts short-term momentum back in favor of buyers.

Market structure breaks are often early signals of trend transitions, particularly when they follow extended consolidations or corrective phases. In Solana’s case, the breakout suggests that sellers are losing control, at least in the short term, and that buyers are becoming more aggressive at current levels.

Holding value area low is critical

Despite the bullish development, confirmation will depend on Solana holding above the value area low. This level represents the lower boundary of fair value within the current range and often serves as a key decision point for whether to continue or fail.

As long as price action remains above this level, Solana has the opportunity to establish a higher low. A higher low would further reinforce the bullish shift in structure and increase confidence that the breakout is sustainable rather than a short-lived reaction.

Failure to hold this level, however, would return Solana to balance and reopen the risk of renewed consolidation or downside rotation.

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Higher highs and higher lows shift bias

If Solana continues to print higher highs while defending higher lows, the broader narrative within the current trading range will begin to shift. Multiple higher highs and higher lows would negate the prior bearish bias and suggest that the market is transitioning into a more constructive phase.

Such transitions often occur in stages, with initial breakouts followed by retests and consolidations before larger expansions take place. This underscores the importance of patience, as short-term pullbacks remain healthy within a developing bullish structure.

$95 resistance comes into focus

With the local bearish structure broken, attention now turns to the next major upside level. The $95 region represents a significant high-timeframe resistance area where price previously faced rejection. A move toward this level would align with typical follow-through behavior after a successful structure break.

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Reaching $95 would also place Solana back into the upper portion of its broader trading range. How price behaves around this level will be critical in determining whether the rally extends further or transitions into another consolidation phase.

What to expect in the coming price action

From a technical, price action, and market structure perspective, Solana is showing early signs of a bullish continuation. As long as price holds above the value area low and maintains the newly established higher high, the probability favors further upside exploration.

In the near term, traders should expect some volatility as the market digests the structure break. Controlled pullbacks that hold above support would strengthen the bullish case, while a loss of value could delay continuation.

For now, the evidence suggests that Solana’s recent breakout is meaningful. If momentum continues to build, the $95 resistance level stands out as the next key upside target in the current market phase.

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Banks Should Embrace Stablecoin Yield in CLARITY Act: White House Adviser

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Banks, US Government, Stablecoin

Crypto companies and platforms that provide stablecoin rewards have become a major point of contention in the CLARITY crypto market structure bill.

The banking industry should not be threatened by crypto companies offering stablecoin yield to customers, and both sides must compromise on the issue, according to White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt.

Witt said it was “unfortunate” that the issue of stablecoin yield has become a major point of contention between the crypto industry and banks, adding that crypto service providers sharing yield with customers does not threaten the banking industry’s business model or market share. He told Yahoo Finance:

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“They can also offer stablecoin products to their customers, just the same as crypto. This is not an unfair advantage in either way, and many banks are now applying for OCC bank charters themselves to start offering bank-like products to their customers.

Banks, US Government, Stablecoin
White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt provides an update on the CLARITY bill negotiations. Source: Yahoo Finance

In the future, I don’t think this is going to be an issue,” he continued, adding, “I think they’re going to find opportunities to use these products and leverage them and offer new products to their customers and expand their businesses.”

The ability of crypto service providers and platforms to offer rewards to customers who hold stablecoins has emerged as one of the most significant pain points for the industry, contributing to delays in passing the CLARITY market structure bill.

Related: White House crypto bill talks ‘productive,’ but no deal yet

Time is running out on passing the CLARITY Act, Witt and others warn

The proposed CLARITY Act establishes clear regulatory jurisdiction over crypto markets between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and also creates an asset taxonomy for cryptocurrencies.

However, government officials and industry executives have warned that the looming 2026 US midterm elections could derail efforts to pass it into law and threaten to roll back crypto regulations established by the administration of US President Donald Trump.

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