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National Trust Banks Now Stablecoin Issuers

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National Trust Banks Now Stablecoin Issuers

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has broadened the universe of entities eligible to issue payment stablecoins, expanding the scope beyond traditional banks to include national trust banks. In a reissued staff communication, the agency clarified that national trust banks — institutions that typically provide custodial services, act as executors, and manage assets on behalf of clients rather than engaging in retail lending — can issue fiat-pegged tokens under its framework. The update, formally an amended Letter 25-40 dated December 8, 2025, signals a regulatory opening for non-retail institutions to participate in the stablecoin issuance landscape while staying within the agency’s risk controls and disclosure requirements. This move sits within a broader push to bring more clarity and supervision to U.S. dollar stablecoins as lawmakers push for a comprehensive framework.

The CFTC’s updated stance came alongside a wider regulatory environment shaped by the GENIUS Act, a flagship effort signed into law in July 2025 to establish a comprehensive regime for dollar-backed stablecoins. In parallel, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) has put forward a proposal that would allow commercial banks to issue stablecoins through a subsidiary, subject to FDIC oversight and alignment with GENIUS Act requirements. Taken together, the developments reflect a concerted push by U.S. regulators to delineate who can issue stablecoins, how reserves are managed, and what governance standards apply to ensure stability and consumer protection.

“The [Market Participants] Division did not intend to exclude national trust banks as issuers of payment stablecoins for purposes of Letter 25-40. Therefore, the division is reissuing the content of Letter 25-40, with an expanded definition of payment stablecoin.”

The evolution of guidance and policy in this space underscores the Biden-era regulatory stance on digital assets, even as political dynamics shift. A key inflection point cited by supporters and critics alike is the GENIUS Act, which aims to codify how dollar-pegged tokens are issued, backed, and redeemed in the U.S. financial system. The act envisions a framework in which stablecoins are tethered to high-quality assets—principally fiat currency deposits or short-term government securities—and prioritizes robust reserve backing over more speculative, algorithmic approaches. The law’s emphasis on 1:1 backing is central to the U.S. regulatory thesis that stablecoins should function as trusted payment rails rather than speculative instruments.

The interest in national trust banks as issuers reflects a broader attempt to harness existing financial infrastructure for stablecoin issuance while ensuring strong oversight. Custodial banks and asset managers are well-positioned to manage reserve assets and redemption mechanics, provided they meet the GENIUS Act’s criteria and the CFTC’s risk-management expectations. Yet the legal architecture remains complex: the GENIUS Act excludes algorithmic and synthetic-stablecoin models from its defined regulatory regime, signaling a deliberate preference for on-chain dollars that are backed by explicit, liquid reserves. This delineation matters for developers, exchanges, and institutions weighing whether to launch or scale stablecoin products within the U.S. market.

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From a policy perspective, the FDIC’s December 2025 framework signals a parallel track for banks that want to participate in the stablecoin economy. The FDIC proposal contemplates a governance and oversight regime where a parent bank may issue stablecoins through a subsidiary, with the parent and subsidiary jointly evaluated for GENIUS Act compliance. In practical terms, banks would need clear redemption policies, transparent reserve management, and robust risk controls to withstand liquidity stress scenarios. The proposal’s emphasis on cash deposits and allocations in short-term government securities as backing underlines a risk-conscious approach to reserve management, designed to protect consumers and maintain trust in the stability mechanism.

Taken together, the CFTC, GENIUS Act, and FDIC proposals illustrate a coordinated effort to formalize who can issue stablecoins and under what safeguards. While this regulatory contour aims to reduce systemic risk and increase transparency, it also raises questions about competition, innovation, and the pace at which institutions adapt to new requirements. For market participants, the implications are twofold: potential increases in the number of credible issuers and more stringent standards for reserves and governance. The exact shape of implementation will hinge on subsequent rulemaking, agency guidance, and how firms align their compliance programs with the evolving framework.

Why it matters

First, the expansion to national trust banks widens the potential issuer base for U.S. dollar stablecoins, potentially increasing liquidity and providing new on-ramps for institutions that already manage large asset pools and custodial services. By enabling custody-focused banks to issue stablecoins, regulators acknowledge that core trust and settlement functions can be integrated with digital tokens in a controlled, audited environment. This could accelerate the adoption of digital-dollar payments for settlement, payroll, and cross-border transactions, provided these tokens remain backed by transparent reserves and subject to robust supervisory oversight.

Second, the GENIUS Act’s emphasis on 1:1 backing and the exclusion of algorithmic models create a delineated path for stablecoins to be treated as genuine state-of-the-art payment instruments rather than speculative vehicles. The act’s framework aims to minimize counterparty risk and maintain trust among users, merchants, and financial institutions. For issuers, this means that any new product entering the U.S. market will need to demonstrate verifiable reserves and clear redemption policies, which could influence how liquidity is sourced, how collateral is allocated, and how risk is modeled. Investors and traders will scrutinize reserve disclosures and governance structures more closely, knowing that regulatory compliance is a central prerequisite for broader market access.

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Third, the FDIC’s proposed model for bank-issued stablecoins introduces a layered supervisory process that ties parent institutions to a dedicated subsidiary. While this structure could isolate risk and enhance accountability, it also adds a layer of administrative complexity for banks seeking to participate in the stablecoin economy. For the broader crypto ecosystem, the development signals a maturing regulatory environment in which stablecoins can function as reliable payment rails if they meet explicit, enforceable standards. This clarity could encourage more mainstream financial players to engage with digital currencies, provided the business models remain aligned with prudential risk controls.

What to watch next

  • December 8, 2025 — CFTC confirms amended Letter 25-40 and expands the scope to national trust banks.
  • FDIC December 2025 proposal — Banks may issue stablecoins through a subsidiary under FDIC oversight; track the Federal Register notice and subsequent rulemaking.
  • GENIUS Act implementation timeline — Monitor any updates on how the regime will be phased in and how enforcement expectations will be communicated.
  • Regulatory alignment — Any further CFTC or FDIC guidance clarifying reserve composition, redemption windows, and reporting obligations for issuers.

Sources & verification

  • CFTC press release 9180-26 announcing the amended Letter 25-40 and inclusion of national trust banks as potential issuers of payment stablecoins.
  • Federal Register notice or FDIC filing outlining the proposed framework for banks issuing stablecoins via a subsidiary and GENIUS Act alignment.
  • Donald Trump stablecoin law signed in July 2025 — coverage detailing GENIUS Act context and regulatory aims.
  • GENIUS Act overview — cointelegraph Learn article explaining how the act could reshape U.S. stablecoin regulation.

Regulatory expansion widens who can issue payment stablecoins

The CFTC’s decision to explicitly include national trust banks as potential issuers of payment stablecoins marks a notable shift in the agency’s interpretive posture. By reissuing Letter 25-40 with an expanded definition of “payment stablecoin,” the commission provides a clearer pathway for custodial institutions to participate in the stablecoin economy without stepping outside the boundaries of current risk management expectations. The language adopted by the Market Participants Division signals a deliberate attempt to harmonize regulatory definitions with evolving market realisms, where large custody providers and asset managers already perform core settlement and custody functions that could be extended to tokenized dollars.

At the core of the GENIUS Act is a drive to formalize stablecoins as trusted payment instruments. The act aims to curb regulatory ambiguity by outlining precise reserve requirements and governance standards, ensuring that dollars backing stablecoins are protected by transparent, high-quality assets. The law’s emphasis on 1:1 backing—whether through fiat deposits or highly liquid government securities—reflects a preference for stability over novelty. By excluding algorithmic or synthetic stablecoins from the GENIUS framework, policymakers intend to minimize complexity and counterparty risk, reducing the likelihood of sudden depegging or reserve shocks.

The FDIC’s forthcoming framework—allowing banks to issue stablecoins through a subsidiary under its oversight—complements the CFTC’s redefinition. It signals a practical progression toward integrating traditional banking structures with digital-asset processes, provided banks meet the GENIUS Act’s criteria. The proposed safeguards emphasize redemption policies, reserve adequacy, and ongoing financial health assessments, underscoring the regulators’ focus on resilience and public trust. In broad terms, the convergence of these initiatives points to a gradual, monitored expansion of the stablecoin ecosystem rather than a rapid, unbounded growth of new issuers.

Market participants should watch not only the formal issuers that emerge but also the evolving standards for disclosures, stress testing, and governance. As more entities participate in this space, the demand for clear, consistent regulatory expectations will intensify, prompting issuers to adopt rigorous compliance programs and robust risk controls. The balance regulators seek is clear: widen access to stablecoins as practical payment tools while maintaining sufficient guardrails to protect consumers, financial stability, and the integrity of settlement systems.

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What It Is and Agent-First Coding

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What It Is and Agent-First Coding

Google Antigravity is a new development environment designed specifically for the era of software built alongside autonomous AI agents. Unlike traditional IDEs, which integrate artificial intelligence as an auxiliary assistant, Antigravity introduces a fundamentally different paradigm: agent‑first development.

In this model, developers no longer interact solely with files and syntax. Instead, they collaborate with intelligent agents capable of planning, generating, refactoring, testing and maintaining entire software systems.

For frontend engineers, backend developers, full‑stack specialists, software architects and technical teams working with AI‑assisted workflows, understanding Google Antigravity is not optional. It represents an early signal of how modern engineering productivity is about to change.

This article explains what Google Antigravity is, how it works conceptually, how it differs from current AI‑enhanced IDEs, and why it could reshape software development over the coming years.

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What is Google Antigravity

Google Antigravity is an agent‑native integrated development environment built for collaboration with autonomous coding agents rather than traditional editor‑centric workflows.

Where environments such as VS Code or JetBrains products embed AI as contextual support layers, Antigravity positions agents as active participants across the entire development lifecycle.

This includes:

  • technical task planning
  • structured code generation
  • automated refactoring
  • assisted debugging
  • orchestration of complex workflows
  • continuous project maintenance

The result is a shift in abstraction level. Developers move from writing every component manually to supervising systems that co‑develop software alongside them.


What agent‑first development actually means

Agent‑first development describes a model in which AI agents operate as collaborators rather than passive assistants.

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In a traditional IDE workflow:

the developer writes → the AI suggests

In an agent‑first workflow:

the developer defines intent → the agent executes strategy

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This transition allows engineers to operate at a higher architectural level.

Instead of issuing narrow implementation commands such as:

“create a REST endpoint with validation”

Developers can express broader objectives like:

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“implement a complete authentication system compatible with the existing architecture”

The agent interprets repository structure, dependencies, conventions and constraints before generating coherent solutions.

This fundamentally changes how programmers interact with codebases.


Conceptual architecture behind Google Antigravity

Although Google has not yet published full technical documentation for Antigravity, its behaviour aligns with emerging agent‑native development environment architectures.

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These systems typically operate across several coordinated layers.

Intent interpretation layer

At this stage, the agent analyses:

  • natural‑language instructions
  • repository structure
  • active dependencies
  • project history
  • architectural conventions

This enables context‑aware execution rather than isolated code generation.

Planning layer

Before producing code, the agent structures an execution strategy.

Typical responsibilities include:

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  • decomposing complex tasks
  • identifying dependency conflicts
  • proposing structural improvements
  • estimating architectural impact

This reduces the risk of incremental inconsistencies common in manual workflows.

Execution layer

The agent then generates concrete artefacts such as:

  • new source files
  • refactored modules
  • automated test suites
  • migrations
  • technical documentation

All changes remain synchronised with the active repository context.

Validation layer

Finally, the system evaluates:

  • code coherence
  • module compatibility
  • architectural alignment
  • runtime stability assumptions

This moves development closer to a semi‑autonomous engineering model.


How Antigravity differs from traditional IDEs

Google Antigravity is not simply another editor enhanced with AI capabilities.

It represents a structural change in how developers interact with software systems.

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Key differences include the following.

From autocomplete to autonomous execution

Conventional IDEs suggest lines of code.

Antigravity executes complete implementation strategies.

From files to intent

Traditional editors operate at file level.

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Antigravity operates at goal level.

From reactive assistance to active collaboration

Most AI tools respond only when prompted.

Agent‑native environments participate continuously in solution design.

From incremental productivity gains to exponential workflow acceleration

Automating entire development segments transforms how quickly complex systems can evolve.

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This becomes especially relevant in large‑scale or fast‑moving projects.


Practical use cases for developers

Google Antigravity is designed to integrate naturally into modern engineering workflows where iteration speed is critical.

Several scenarios illustrate its immediate value.

Rapid prototyping

Developers can generate functional architectures in minutes rather than hours.

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This accelerates:

  • idea validation
  • technical experimentation
  • early product iteration

Legacy codebase refactoring

Agents can analyse internal dependencies and propose structural improvements across large repositories.

This is particularly useful in long‑lived enterprise projects.

Automated test generation

Testing remains one of the most persistent bottlenecks in professional development.

Agent‑native environments help maintain:

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  • continuous coverage
  • regression protection
  • incremental validation cycles

Living technical documentation

Agents can maintain documentation aligned with evolving codebases.

This significantly improves onboarding efficiency across engineering teams.


Comparison with other AI‑powered IDE environments

Google Antigravity enters an ecosystem that already includes tools such as Cursor, Copilot Workspace and emerging agent‑centric development platforms.

However, its positioning introduces important distinctions.

Compared with VS Code plus Copilot

Copilot enhances editing.

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Antigravity transforms execution workflows.

Compared with Cursor

Cursor improves contextual editing interactions.

Antigravity restructures the development model itself.

Compared with experimental autonomous coding systems

Many current agent tools operate as external orchestration layers.

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Antigravity integrates agents directly into the core environment.

This allows deeper architectural alignment and stronger repository awareness.


How Antigravity may reshape developer workflows

The most important impact of Antigravity is methodological rather than purely technical.

Developers shift from implementation‑centric roles towards supervision‑centric engineering.

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In practice, engineers increasingly act as:

  • system designers
  • agent supervisors
  • architectural strategists

This evolution enables smaller teams to deliver larger systems with fewer coordination bottlenecks.

It also encourages higher‑level thinking about structure, scalability and maintainability.


Strategic advantages for development teams

Adopting agent‑first environments can produce measurable improvements across engineering organisations.

Key advantages include:

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Reduced development time

Automating repetitive implementation tasks frees cognitive capacity for higher‑value problem solving.

Improved architectural consistency

Agents help maintain structural patterns across repositories.

Easier technical scalability

Complex structural changes can be planned and executed more reliably.

Faster experimentation cycles

Teams can validate architectural decisions without significant upfront implementation investment.

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These benefits are especially valuable in startup environments and innovation‑driven product teams.


Current limitations of agent‑native development environments

As with any emerging technology category, Antigravity introduces new challenges alongside its advantages.

Important considerations include:

Dependence on repository structure quality

Agents perform best when working within clearly organised projects.

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Continued need for human oversight

Autonomy does not replace engineering judgement.

Expert review remains essential.

Organisational adaptation requirements

Transitioning to agent‑first workflows requires a shift in team mental models.

This adjustment can take time in traditionally structured engineering organisations.

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Why Google Antigravity matters for the future of software development

Google rarely introduces developer tooling without a broader strategic trajectory.

Antigravity signals a shift from intelligent text editors towards collaborative engineering environments built around autonomous agents.

This transition implies:

  • shorter development cycles
  • reduced technical friction
  • increased experimentation capacity
  • new professional engineering skill profiles

Developers who understand this shift early gain a meaningful competitive advantage.

This is particularly true in environments where continuous innovation defines technical success.

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Conclusion

Google Antigravity represents one of the first serious attempts to design an IDE from the ground up for agent‑assisted software engineering.

Rather than adding artificial intelligence to existing workflows, it redefines the relationship between developers and code.

Working within agent‑first environments enables teams to operate at higher abstraction levels, accelerate iteration cycles and reduce repetitive implementation effort.

As software engineering moves towards collaborative human‑agent systems, Antigravity is not simply another tool.

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It is an early indicator of how professional development environments are likely to evolve over the coming years.


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The SEC’s latest crypto guidance still leaves too much unsaid

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The SEC’s latest crypto guidance still leaves too much unsaid

On Tuesday, March 19, the SEC issued joint guidance with the CFTC to “finally” provide clarity about how the securities laws apply to digital assets. On many issues, including staking and meme coins, the SEC’s new guidance is a welcome development and a marked improvement from the Gensler days. It also rightly acknowledges that the agency’s “regulation by enforcement” campaign under Chair Gensler had muddied compliance obligations and stifled the industry. But in important ways, the guidance stops short of the full course correction the crypto industry needs.

The biggest shortcoming is the SEC’s articulation of the Howey test for “investment contract” securities. All agree that most digital assets are not, on their own, investment contracts. Even the Gensler SEC (eventually) admitted as much, and the SEC’s new guidance reiterates that position. The key question, though, is when a digital asset is sold as part of an investment contract such that the sale becomes subject to the securities laws.

The statute provides the answer. As a matter of text, history and common sense, an “investment contract” means a contract – an express or implied agreement between the issuer and investor under which the issuer will deliver ongoing profits in return for the purchaser’s investment. Most digital assets are not investment contracts because they are not contracts. A digital asset can be the subject of an investment contract (like any other asset), but it can still be sold separately from the investment contract without implicating the securities laws. In the suits brought by Gensler, crypto companies vigorously defended that proper interpretation of the law.

Yet the SEC’s new guidance is silent about whether an investment contract requires contractual obligations. Instead, it says an investment contract travels with a digital asset (at least temporarily) when the “facts and circumstances” show the digital-asset developer “induc[ed] an investment of money in a common enterprise with representations or promises to undertake essential managerial efforts,” leading purchasers to “reasonably expect to derive profits.” That does not clearly confirm a clean break from the SEC’s former view that Howey eschews “contract law” and demands “a flexible application of the economic reality surrounding the offer, sale and entire scheme at issue, which may include a variety of promises, undertakings and corresponding expectations.”

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The Gensler SEC’s know-it-when-I-see-it approach to Howey was deeply problematic. It allowed the agency to piece together an “investment contract” from various public statements by digital-asset developers — tweets, white papers, and other marketing materials — even absent concrete promises by the issuers. And it failed to distinguish securities from collectibles like Beanie Babies and trading cards, the value of which depends heavily on their maker’s marketing and attempts to create scarcity. The SEC missed an important opportunity to clearly reject that approach and restore a key statutory dividing line between assets and securities — a contract.

The SEC can still fix this problem, but to do so, it will need to further clarify how the agency intends to apply Howey going forward — and to finally make a clean break with Gensler’s overbroad interpretation of the securities laws. For example, the Gensler SEC repeatedly cited various “widely distributed promotional statements” as a basis for pushing a digital asset into the realm of investment contracts. The SEC’s new guidance puts some guardrails on that approach by requiring a developer’s representations or promises to be “explicit and unambiguous,” to “contain sufficient details,” and to occur before the purchase of the digital asset. But even that improved approach leaves too much room for interpretation. It could be expansively applied by private plaintiffs, the courts or a future SEC. Rather than continue down the path Gensler trod, the SEC should make clear that mere public statements affecting value are insufficient and that promises and representations must be made in the context of the specific sale at issue — not strung together from whitepapers or social-media posts that many purchasers likely never considered.

The SEC also should clarify its approach to secondary-market trading. Helpfully, the agency now recognizes that digital assets are not investment contracts “in perpetuity” just because they once were “subject to” investment contracts. But the agency also says that digital assets remain “subject to” investment contracts traded on secondary markets (like exchanges) so long as purchasers “reasonably expect” issuers’ “representations and promises to remain connected” to the asset. The SEC says little about how to assess those reasonable expectations, providing only two “non-exclusive” examples of when an investment contract “separates” from a digital asset. And it says nothing about whether a secondary-market purchaser must have a contractual relationship with the token issuer. That leaves it unclear whether the SEC has really moved on from the Gensler-era view that investment contracts “travel with” or are “embodied” by crypto tokens.

Instead of those mixed messages, the SEC should impose meaningful restraints on the application of the securities laws to secondary-market transactions by adopting Judge Analisa Torres’s approach in Ripple. Judge Torres recognized that it is unreasonable to infer an investment contract in the context of “blind bid-ask” transactions — that is, transactions where the counterparties do not know each other’s identities (as is common in secondary-market trading). Because buyers have no idea whether their money goes to a token’s issuer or to some unknown third party, they can’t reasonably expect that the seller will use the buyers’ money to generate and deliver profits. The SEC should endorse Judge Torres’s analysis expressly.

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These are not academic quibbles. The current SEC might not read or enforce its new guidance in a manner that threatens the viability of the crypto industry in the United States. But by failing to clearly reject the excesses of the Gensler era, the SEC’s new guidance leaves the industry exposed to a future SEC that could leverage ambiguities in the SEC’s current guidance to resume regulation by enforcement. Private plaintiffs could try to do the same in lawsuits against key industry players (such as the leading exchanges). And in the meantime, the SEC’s interpretations could distort the securities-law baseline during negotiations over market-structure litigation.

The SEC invited comments on its guidance, and the industry should oblige. The SEC should get credit where credit is due. But the industry should not hesitate to highlight the lingering flaws and ambiguities in the agency’s approach and advocate for clear, meaningful, and permanent restraints to ensure regulatory clarity and stability. Simply giving the legal architecture of the last enforcement campaign a facelift is not enough.

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Bitcoin (BTC) hashrate falls as miners shift capital to AI infrastructure

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BTC Hash Rate YoY (Glassnode)

For the first time in six years, the bitcoin hashrate, the total computational power securing the network, fell during the first quarter. It is currently down around 4% year to date, hovering around 1 zettahash per second (ZH/s).

Over the past five years, the rate has surged from roughly 100 exahashes per second (EH/s), a 10-fold increase, according to Glassnode data. Each year, the metric rose during the first quarter and ended with strong full-year growth in excess of 10%. In 2022, the figure almost doubled.

BTC Hash Rate YoY (Glassnode)
BTC Hashrate YoY (Glassnode)

The AI Pivot

The shift in 2026 reflects changing economics across the bitcoin mining sector. With production costs near $90,000 per bitcoin and the spot price closer to $67,000, margins are negative. In response, many publicly listed miners are switching to artificial intelligence and high-performance computing infrastructure, where returns are higher and more predictable.

This transition is being funded through debt issuance and bitcoin sales, reducing reinvestment into bitcoin mining. As a result, hashrate growth is becoming more sensitive to the cryptocurrency’s price, with weaker prices likely to trigger further declines as smaller operators exit.

While a falling hashrate may raise concerns about network security, decentralization may matter more than absolute size. Publicly listed U.S. miners have accounted for over 40% of the global hash rate, and a reduction in their influence could lead to a more geographically distributed network. In that sense, the current shift may ultimately support decentralization.

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Despite the slowdown, CoinShares still forecasts hashrate growth to around 1.8 ZH/s by the end of 2026, conditional on bitcoin recovering toward $100,000.

Read More: End of bitcoin ‘HODL’: public miners going all-in on AI, signaling more BTC selling

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Steakhouse Financial front-end breach exposes users to phishing scam

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Steakhouse Financial front-end breach exposes users to phishing scam

DeFi risk curator Steakhouse Financial has been hacked and its website and app are now being used to host a phishing scam.

Steakhouse disclosed the breach Monday morning and warned that any new users interacting with the website or app are likely interacting with a malicious version implemented by the hackers. 

The attack appears to have affected just the front-end of operations, as Steakhouse assured users, “No deposits are at risk. No contracts are affected. All Steakhouse depositors are safe.”

A statement from the official Steakhouse Financial X account.

Read more: Fake Uniswap phishing ad on Google steals trader’s life savings

“We are working to restore the frontend as soon as possible,” the firm said. 

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Steakhouse co-founder, Sébastien Derivaux, warned crypto users to avoid the website until further notice.  

Various crypto firms offered alternative services and safety assurances for customers with funds at Steakhouse. 

Others found humor in the incident, with one user asking, “Does phishing on Steakhouse make this a surf and turf attack?”

At the time of writing, neither Steakhouse Financial or its CEO have shared any further updates on the incident.

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Steakhouse Financial housing a crypto drainer

Crypto security firm Blockaid claims that the Steakhouse attackers are utilizing code from one of the “largest active wallet drainer operations onchain” known as Angelferno, or Angel Drainer.

Read more: Fears of $27M Venus Protocol hack turn out to be phishing attack on power user

Earlier this month, AI crypto firm GAIB fell victim to a social engineering scheme that gave hackers access to its domain, where they implemented a copycat website kitted with Angelferno. 

Drainers work by stealing a user’s crypto after they sign a malicious transaction that gives hackers full access to withdraw their funds.

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Blockaid was able to help GAIB detect the malware, and the malicious site was gone in roughly seven hours, with no apparent user losses. 

Got a tip? Send us an email securely via Protos Leaks. For more informed news and investigations, follow us on XBluesky, and Google News, or subscribe to our YouTube channel.

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Bitcoin Hashrate falls 6%, US bond yields up 4%: Month in charts

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Bitcoin Hashrate falls 6%, US bond yields up 4%: Month in charts

This month, Bitcoin’s hashrate fell 6% after the US and Israel attacked Iran, highlighting Iran’s significant crypto mining activity.

Bitcoin price, meanwhile, remains lackluster. Higher 4% yields on US Treasury bonds have added pressure, and investors are seeking less risky prospects amid geopolitical tension.

Less appetite for crypto trading has proven problematic for Robinhood. The trading platform’s stock is down 16% on the month, and leadership has announced a stock buyback program. 

Prediction markets marked a record number of transactions, representing a more than 2,800% increase since this time last year. 

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Here’s March by the numbers:

Bitcoin lacks momentum as 4% US Treasury bond yields put pressure on price

Yields on five-year US Treasury bonds are up 4% in March, putting pressure on Bitcoin price. While showing some gains in mid March, the asset ended the month much where it started, around $67,000.

As per an analysis from Cointelegraph, fears of a drawn-out conflict between the US and Israel against Iran have led investors to cut out risk. A sell-off in bonds, along with a nine-month high of 4% in yields, suggests that traders are building cash positions.

Bitcoin hashrate falls nearly 6% after US and Israel attack Iran

On Feb. 28, the United States and Israel launched a joint special military operation in Iran called “Operation Epic Fury.” One month later, the Bitcoin (BTC) hashrate is down almost 6%.

Bloomberg crypto and digital assets strategist Dushyant Shahrawat said in a recent interview that Iran is one of the world’s largest Bitcoin miners, accounting for some 6-8% of global hashrate, and 70% of mining activities are conducted by the military. 

Disruptions to the country’s energy infrastructure and diversion of military priorities to defense have thus hit Iran’s ability to mine Bitcoin. 

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Prediction market transaction top 192 million

Transactions on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi topped 192 million in March. That represents a 24% increase from last month and a 2,880% increase compared to the same time last year, according to Dune analytics. 

Related: Lawmakers push another bill to curb prediction market insider trading

Prediction markets are growing in popularity, but in the United States, they face state regulators who say they facilitate a form of gambling. At least 11 states have taken legal action against them.

On March 20, Carson City District Court Judge Jason Woodbury upheld a regulator’s move to temporarily ban prediction market Kalshi in Nevada. 

Arizona has brought criminal charges against Kalshi for allegedly “running an illegal gambling operation and taking bets on Arizona elections, both of which violate Arizona law.”

Other states like Utah and Pennsylvania are currently considering legislation that would bring prediction markets under state gambling or gaming laws. Kalshi says that it answers only to federal regulation under the Commodity Futures Exchange Commission (CFTC). 

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Euro-denominated stablecoins account for 85% of non-dollar volume

Stablecoins backed by the euro have emerged as a favorite alternative to assets backed by US dollars. Some 85% of non-dollar stablecoin volumes occur in euros, according to a March report from Dune.

While euro-denominated coins initially only represented some 50-70% of the non-dollar market, they began expanding significantly in 2024. Now they represent 85% of total transferred volume. Euro stablecoins are also dominant in regard to participation, with user share rising to over 78%.

Dune attributes this increase to more confidence in stablecoins among institutions, thanks in large part to the Markets in Crypto-Assets regulatory package (MiCA). 

Robinhood stock down 16% on month

Robinhood stock has decreased over 16% in March, from nearly $80 to $66 as of publishing time. 

The stock and crypto trading company’s share price has been struggling in recent months. Over the last six months, it dropped over 50%. Uncertainty over the regulation of new verticals like prediction markets and social trading, along with a collapse in crypto trading revenues are creating structural obstacles for the company.

Revenue from crypto transactions reportedly dropped 38% year-over-year as of Q4 2025. Crypto app volumes dropped 58%.

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To address the problem, Robinhood has approved a $1.5 billion share buyback program in March, which will execute over the next three years. 

Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings are 11% in the red

Amid a lackluster price action on the month, Strategy’s Bitcoin portfolio is at an 11% loss. The average cost of Bitcoin in its portfolio is $75,669. Bitcoin is trading around $67,800 at publishing time. 

Data collected March 30.

Still, the company has continued its regular Bitcoin purchases. It made two this month: one for 17,994 Bitcoin on March 9 and another for 22,337 Bitcoin on March 16, amounting to roughly $2.7 billion at publishing time.

The software company has financed most of its Bitcoin purchases through high-yield stock offerings, like Stretch (STRC). This allows the company to buy Bitcoin without diluting its MSTR common shares.

The company’s chair, Bitcoin bull Michael Saylor, said recently that 80% of STRC buyers are retail investors. “Retail investors prefer low-volatility, high-yield digital credit,” he said.

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