Bitcoin recently found support at a key onchain metric — the average realized price for a specific year — in this case the 2023 cost basis.

The 2023 average realized price currently sits around $63,700. During the local bottom in early February, when bitcoin dropped roughly 50% from its October all-time high, to roughly $60,000, price effectively tested and held this level as support.

This behavior mirrors the previous cycle. In early 2023, as the bull run began, bitcoin experienced several small corrections and repeatedly used the 2023 realized price as support. This can be observed in March, July, and September 2023, when price consolidated in the $20,000 to $26,000 range.

Looking at newer cohorts, the 2026 average realized price started the year near $90,000 and has since declined to around $77,000. With bitcoin currently trading just above $70,000, the average 2026 buyer is underwater. Notably, this cohort’s cost basis has also fallen below both the 2024 cohort at $81,500 and the 2025 cohort at $96,400.

Zooming out further, the aggregate realized price, which represents the average cost basis of all coins in circulation, is currently around $54,360. Historically, bitcoin has traded below this level in every major bear market, including 2011, 2015, 2019, and 2022.

So far in this cycle, bitcoin’s lowest price has been around $60,000. If that level fails, it becomes the next key support to watch, with the realized price at $54,000 acting as a deeper historical floor.

Key Highlights

• Company achieves milestone profitability with RMB436M net income for 2025.

• Unit deliveries surge to 1.6M, with projections surpassing 4M for 2026.

• Partnerships with leading Chinese automakers drive multiple-lidar vehicle designs.

• Robotics sector expansion accelerates through Unitree, Dreame, and MOVA alliances.

• FMC500 chip launch and NVIDIA partnership advance technological capabilities.

Hesai Group (HSAI) experienced upward momentum, closing at $23.58 with a 3.19% increase. Trading activity pushed shares toward $23.80 before pre-market sessions revealed a decline to $22.57, representing a 4.28% drop. The fluctuation occurred after Hesai disclosed comprehensive 2025 earnings data and outlined production targets for 2026.

Hesai Group, HSAI

The company reached its inaugural year of GAAP-compliant profitability, propelled by robust sales performance and disciplined expense control. Unit deliveries expanded threefold beyond 1.6 million, generating total revenues that surpassed RMB3 billion (approximately US$433 million). Financial disclosures revealed GAAP net earnings of RMB436 million (roughly US$62 million) alongside non-GAAP earnings reaching RMB551 million (about US$79 million).

Balance sheet strength improved with net assets climbing to approximately RMB9 billion (US$1.3 billion), while the organization maintained positive operating cash generation for its third consecutive year. Manufacturing capacity is slated to exceed 4 million annual units throughout 2026. This aggressive scaling addresses both autonomous vehicle ADAS requirements and emerging robotics applications, accommodating increased lidar sensor density per platform.

Automotive and Robotics Sector Momentum

Design contracts were secured with China’s entire top-tier automotive manufacturer roster, encompassing more than 160 vehicle platforms. Multiple-sensor configurations for brands including Li Auto, Xiaomi, and Changan are scheduled for manufacturing launch between 2026 and 2027. This strategic positioning establishes Hesai as a frontrunner in the industry’s shift toward multi-sensor lidar architectures.

The company successfully penetrated the affordable vehicle segment targeting models under RMB100,000, substantially widening its total addressable marketplace. Sensor technology enables autonomous navigation, collision avoidance, and driver assistance functionality across diverse platforms. Strategic objectives emphasize increasing per-vehicle sensor integration while pursuing international market penetration.

Within robotics applications, Hesai captured top rankings across humanoid systems, quadruped platforms, autonomous taxis, delivery vans, and automated lawn maintenance equipment. Strategic agreements with Unitree, Dreame, and MOVA generated significant order volumes, demonstrating robust automation sector demand. These developments signal substantial long-term revenue opportunities as global deployment volumes accelerate.

Technological Advancement and Global Alliances

November 2025 marked the debut of the FMC500 system-on-chip architecture, consolidating MCU, FPGA, and ADC components for superior operational capabilities. The redesigned ATX sensor incorporating FMC500 technology enters production during April 2026. Proprietary “Photon Isolation” technology mitigates cross-channel laser interference, elevating safety standards and system dependability.

International expansion included designation as principal lidar provider for NVIDIA’s DRIVE Hyperion 10 reference platform. Southeast Asian market access expanded through collaboration with Grab. An intellectual property portfolio exceeding 2,071 lidar-related patents reinforces technological leadership and competitive positioning.

Management projects 2026 sensor deliveries ranging between 3 million and 3.5 million units, indicating sustained growth trajectory. Upcoming product introductions target substantial market opportunities while strengthening international presence. These coordinated strategic moves underscore organizational commitment to production scalability and application diversity across automotive and robotics verticals.

Invesco, a U.S.-based asset manager overseeing $2.2 trillion in assets, will take over management of Superstate’s tokenized U.S. Treasury fund in a move that brings a large traditional asset manager deeper into blockchain-based finance.

The USTB fund holds short-term U.S. government securities and represents more than $900 million in assets. It ranks among the largest tokenized Treasury funds, a fast-growing corner of the market bringing money market funds onto blockchain rails.

After the transition, expected in the second quarter of 2026, the fund will be renamed to Invesco Short Duration US Government Securities Fund while keeping its ticker and token setup.

The move marks Invesco’s formal entrance in the fast-growing, $12 billion tokenized U.S. Treasuries market, joining rival global asset managers such as BlackRock (BLK), Franklin Templeton and Fidelity Investments.

Unlike traditional financial infrastructure, blockchain-based tokens allow near-instant settlement, transparent reserves and round-the-clock access. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has said in its annual letter that tokenization could make investing faster, cheaper and more accessible by recording ownership on digital ledgers.

“Invesco has been strategically building the capabilities required to support institutional-grade digital asset products,” said Kathleen Wrynn, Invesco’s global head of digital Assets. “Superstate’s onchain infrastructure pairs naturally to support Invesco’s ambitions to scale tokenized offerings over time.”

The USTB tokenized fund will keep its structure and strategy under Invesco’s banner, while Superstate will continue to run the fund’s technology layer. That includes issuing fund shares as tokens, settling transactions onchain and maintaining a digital transfer agent system.

Invesco will handle day-to-day investment decisions through its global liquidity team, which manages over $200 billion in short-term assets.

Read more: BlackRock is betting billions that tokenized funds will do for Wall Street what the internet did to mail

European Central Bank Executive Board member Piero Cipollone warned that tokenized deposits and stablecoins in Europe will only scale if they rest on tokenized central bank money as a public settlement anchor. In remarks delivered in Brussels, Cipollone pointed to Pontes, the Eurosystem’s distributed ledger technology settlement initiative, which aims to connect market DLT platforms with the Eurosystem’s TARGET Services and settle transactions in central bank money.

The ECB has signaled that Pontes could be launched in the third quarter of 2026, enabling market participants to settle DLT-based transactions using central bank money. The comments extend the ECB’s broader Appia initiative, which the central bank outlined on March 11 as a blueprint for a future European tokenized financial ecosystem by 2028.

Related: The ECB has been advancing work on tokenization and digital finance, including efforts around the digital euro and related settlement infrastructure.

Key takeaways

• Tokenized financial assets in Europe would require tokenized central bank money to serve as a low-risk settlement anchor, reducing exposure to price volatility or credit risk.
• Pontes, the Eurosystem’s DLT settlement initiative, aims to interlink market DLT platforms with central bank payment rails, with a planned initial launch in Q3 2026.
• The Appia roadmap seeks to establish interoperability standards so tokenized assets can transfer smoothly across different DLT ecosystems, supported by standardized data formats and smart contract protocols.
• Beyond technology, Cipollone underscored the need for a coherent legal framework and stronger public-private collaboration to support tokenized markets at scale.
• Regulatory progress is underway, but industry participants—along with issuers of stablecoins—are pressing for broader guidance, including expansion of the DLT Pilot Regime and related cash account services for authorized providers.

Tokenized markets hinge on central bank settlement rails

In his Brussels address, Cipollone framed the issue around the core risk that currently limits scale: when a seller of a tokenized security is paid in an asset they would rather not hold, the resulting counterparty risk and volatility can chill adoption. He emphasized that central bank money can serve as a stable, trusted settlement asset, mitigating liquidity and credit concerns that might otherwise deter market participants from embracing tokenized instruments. The stance aligns with a broader ECB push to anchor tokenized finance in public money while maintaining market resilience.

As part of this vision, Pontes is described as a bridge between private market platforms and the Eurosystem’s settlement rails. If successful, the project would make it feasible to settle tokenized trades directly in central bank money, enhancing finality and reducing settlement risk across Europe’s growing tokenized ecosystem.

Appia: interoperability as the backbone of a tokenized Europe

The Appia initiative, introduced by the ECB, is designed to provide a blueprint for a European tokenized financial infrastructure through 2028. A central pillar is an interoperability standard for assets, enabling cross-platform transfers of tokenized securities and other instruments. In practice, this means harmonizing data formats and smart contract standards so that tokenized assets can move between DLT networks without bespoke bridge solutions.

Cipollone urged market infrastructure operators, banks, custodians and technology providers to engage with the Appia roadmap, offering feedback to help foster broader public-private partnerships. The underlying expectation is that a shared standard will reduce fragmentation, lower integration costs and accelerate adoption across European markets.

Legal clarity and the regulatory path forward

Beyond technology, Cipollone argued that Europe needs a more explicit legal framework to support tokenized issuance and transfer across the bloc. He flagged that while Appia and other initiatives push the technical envelope, a coherent regulatory foundation is essential to prevent a patchwork of rules that could hinder scalable settlement infrastructure.

The European Commission’s proposal to extend the DLT Pilot Regime was described as an important step, yet Cipollone cautioned that without a comprehensive tokenization framework, the region risks building high-value settlement infrastructure atop inconsistent rules. In this context, a dedicated legal framework for tokenized assets could help harmonize issuance, transfer and custody across member states.

Industry response and the next steps

The interview comes on the heels of industry activity responding to Europe’s tokenization push. Recently, stablecoin issuer Circle submitted feedback to the European Commission’s Market Integration Package, urging lawmakers to broaden the DLT Pilot Regime and to allow e-money token cash accounts for authorized crypto-asset service providers. The broader takeaway from market participants is a call for practical, scalable paths to tokenized finance, rather than piecemeal reforms that complicate cross-border settlement.

Looking ahead, the ECB’s public-private collaboration around Appia, the Pontes settlement rails, and the evolving legal framework will be in focus for institutions seeking to participate in Europe’s tokenized finance era. As with any large-scale infrastructural shift, progress will likely hinge on coordinated industry input, regulatory clarity and tangible pilot outcomes.

Readers should watch upcoming updates on Pontes’ pilot milestones and the Appia roadmap’s public consultation cycles. While the Q3 2026 launch window is a concrete near-term milestone, the broader question remains: can Europe converge on a unified framework that makes tokenized central bank money the default settlement anchor for tokenized markets?

TLDR:

• Ethereum exchange reserves have fallen to roughly 16.2 million ETH, the lowest recorded level since 2016.
  
• Around 37 million ETH locked in staking contracts is actively reducing circulating supply and sell-side pressure.
  
• Surging active addresses and lower gas fees from EIP-4844 reflect real user demand, not speculative activity.
  
• Staking-based ETH ETF launches and U.S. regulatory clarity are drawing fresh institutional capital into Ethereum.

Ethereum’s on-chain data points to a structural supply shift that is quietly building price pressure. Exchange reserves have fallen to around 16.2 million ETH, the lowest level since 2016.

Meanwhile, approximately 37 million ETH remains locked in staking contracts. Active addresses have also surged in recent weeks.

Together, these trends suggest that Ethereum’s current market phase may be driven more by fundamentals than by speculation.

Exchange Reserve Drop and Network Activity Signal Tightening Supply

Ethereum’s exchange reserves have reached their lowest point since 2016, sitting at around 16.2 million ETH. This drop reduces available sell-side liquidity on trading platforms.

As fewer coins sit on exchanges, any new demand can move prices more sharply. The reduced float creates conditions for heightened price sensitivity.

At the same time, around 37 million ETH is currently locked in staking. This removes a large share of the circulating supply from active trading.

Together, the staking lock-up and low exchange reserves shrink available market supply considerably. That combination puts structural pressure on price over time.

Active address counts have surged recently, pointing to genuine network usage. This rise in activity comes from real users, not speculative positioning.

Source: Cryptoquant

Lower gas fees following EIP-4844 have made Layer 2 transactions cheaper and faster. As a result, more users are engaging with these applications than before.

Unlike prior market cycles, usage appears to be leading price rather than following it. Transaction volume on Layer 2 networks has grown steadily since EIP-4844.

This shift shows that adoption is organic and tied to improved infrastructure. The data, therefore reflect demand driven by utility rather than momentum trading.

Derivatives Reset and Institutional Access Add a New Layer of Support

Open interest in Ethereum derivatives was flushed out following prior market highs. That washout cleared excessive leverage from the system.

Since then, open interest has been rebuilding gradually and at a steadier pace. This pattern points to a healthier positioning structure in the derivatives market.

Moderate open interest growth, without aggressive funding rates, further supports this reading. Fresh capital appears to be entering rather than recycled speculative money.

The absence of extreme funding rates reduces the risk of a sudden leveraged unwind. Traders are, therefore, taking on new positions with more measured risk.

Analyst Trader Tardigrade noted on social media that Ethereum recently invalidated a bearish chart setup. The asset triggered a breakdown below support, which then reversed quickly.

That false breakdown, also known as a fakeout, is generally read as a bullish reversal pattern. The analyst cited the move as a technical shift in Ethereum’s short-term direction.

Separately, the launch of staking-based ETH exchange-traded funds has expanded institutional access to Ethereum. Regulatory clarity from U.S. agencies has further reduced uncertainty around the asset.

These developments have made ETH more accessible to a wider range of capital. Institutional participation, combined with tightening supply, adds another layer of support to current market conditions.

SIREN has reversed sharply after a fast rally on BNB Chain, with the AI-focused token falling more than 70% from its March 22 all-time high. The drop came after several days of outsized gains and fresh scrutiny over supply concentration and wallet activity.

SIREN traded near $0.40 on March 10 before climbing to an all-time high of about $3.61 on March 22. The move placed it among the stronger short-term performers in the market during a period when many larger assets posted smaller weekly gains.

That run then reversed. CoinGecko data showed SIREN trading near $1.01 on March 24, leaving the token down about 72% from its peak. Its 24-hour trading range stretched from about $0.80 to $2.56, showing how unstable the market remained after the sell-off began.

Part of the pressure came as onchain researchers raised concerns about supply concentration. Bubblemaps said one cluster held close to 50% of SIREN’s supply and warned that the setup carried clear downside risk if those wallets started to move tokens into the market.

The same scrutiny added to wider discussion across crypto social media about whether the token’s rally reflected normal market demand. Public claims on X linked the wallet cluster to known market participants, but no official confirmation was presented in the material reviewed here. That part remains unverified in public reporting.

The latest drop has left SIREN trying to hold above the $1 level after a rapid collapse from its record high. CoinGecko’s market page also showed bearish community sentiment on March 24, reflecting weaker confidence after the reversal.

Aave’s decentralized autonomous organization has signaled broad consensus on advancing the V4 upgrade onto Ethereum’s mainnet. In a near-unanimous Snapshot vote, the DAO backed the deployment path, signaling a move beyond months of internal friction and contributor turnover toward formal on-chain adoption.

The off-chain vote recorded more than 645,000 votes in favor, with fewer than one against and without any abstentions, according to Snapshot data. The overwhelming backing marks a notable shift from earlier governance tensions and sets the stage for an on-chain Aave Improvement Proposal (AIP) vote that would authorize the actual deployment of V4 on Ethereum.

Key takeaways

• Deliberate momentum: The Snapshot result, with near-unanimous support, accelerates Aave V4’s path to Ethereum mainnet, subject to an on-chain AIP vote.
• New architecture, broader use cases: V4 introduces a modular design that separates liquidity from risk, enabling more diverse collateral types and structured credit markets while preserving centralized liquidity depth.
• Governance shakeouts: The vote comes after long-standing contributors exited the DAO, highlighting a turning point in governance dynamics as alignment coalesces around a common deployment plan.
• Next step: The binding AIP vote will determine whether the protocol can activate V4 on Ethereum, moving from proposal to on-chain execution.

Aave V4’s modular design aims to evolve on-chain credit markets

Launched by Aave Labs on March 19, V4 seeks to reimagine how on-chain lending markets are structured. The core idea is to decouple capital from risk management by introducing a two-tier architecture: shared liquidity pools, dubbed “Hubs,” and distinct borrowing environments called “Spokes.” Each Spoke carries tailored risk parameters and exposure limits, enabling the protocol to support a wider array of use cases without sacrificing the depth and efficiency of the unified liquidity pool.

In practical terms, the proposal envisions a framework where new collateral types and structured credit markets can emerge within a unified liquidity system. This modular approach is meant to accommodate assets with varying risk profiles, maturities, or reliance on off-chain data, potentially expanding the range of DeFi products that can be supported by Aave’s core protocol.

Aave Labs underscored that the model preserves the “depth and efficiency of unified liquidity while enabling more precise risk management.” If realized, the change could help the protocol offer more sophisticated credit markets while maintaining capital efficiency for lenders and borrowing flexibility for users.

Governance tensions and the path forward

The push toward V4’s mainnet deployment arrives after a period of notable governance churn. In February, BGD Labs—one of Aave’s longstanding technical contributors—announced its exit after four years, citing an “asymmetric organizational scenario” and what it described as an “adversarial position” toward ongoing work on the existing version. Then in March, The Aave Chan Initiative (ACI), a major governance delegate and service provider, said it would wind down operations following disagreements over governance standards and voting dynamics.

Despite these fractures, the current vote’s outcome implies a broader, cross-community consensus around the direction of the protocol. As Stani Kulechov, founder of Aave, noted, the proposal is expected to advance to an AIP, a binding on-chain vote that would enable the actual deployment and activation of V4 on Ethereum. The exchange between competing viewpoints in recent weeks appears to have given way to a shared sense of where the project must head for the future.

What this means for users, builders, and investors

For users, the V4 upgrade represents a potential expansion of the DeFi toolkit. The modular architecture could unlock new asset classes and risk profiles, enabling more nuanced borrowing strategies and potentially more efficient capital use across on-chain markets. For builders, the shift toward hubs and spokes may offer clearer interfaces and modular upgrade paths, reducing risk integration friction as new collateral types and credit products are introduced.

Investors and liquidity providers may view the move as a test of governance resilience amid contributor turnover. The near-unanimous support in the Snapshot vote signals that a critical mass of the community is confident in the upgrade’s long-term value, even as the DAO navigates the complexities of on-chain governance and contributor dynamics. If the AIP passes, deployment on Ethereum would mark a concrete milestone in Aave’s evolution from a multi-vaceted governance experiment to a more codified, on-chain credit protocol architecture.

Looking ahead, the essential question centers on the timing and outcome of the on-chain AIP vote. While the community appears aligned on the strategic direction, actual deployment hinges on the binding on-chain decision. Market participants should watch not only the vote result but also how the new architecture performs in practice, including risk controls, collateral onboarding timelines, and the integration path for existing liquidity providers.

As the Aave community steers toward the AIP phase, observers will be assessing how governance mechanisms adapt to a more modular system and whether the exits that punctuated earlier months presage a broader stabilization in voting dynamics. The next few weeks will reveal whether V4’s Ethereum mainnet deployment becomes a defining turning point for Aave and a bellwether for modular DeFi architectures across the broader ecosystem.

• Cardano price hovers near $0.30 as altcoins eye gains.
• ADA is down 74% since peaking above $1 in early 2025.
• Downturn sees 43% of holders in the red.

Cardano has dropped out of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization amid downside pressure.

Meanwhile, on‑chain data reveals that average wallets currently sit deep in the red, with roughly a 43% loss over the past year.

This drawdown has impacted investor sentiment, leaving ADA facing potential bearish acceleration towards new multi-year lows.

Cardano wallets in red amid ADA price decline

According to analytics firm Santiment, average wallets active on the Cardano network over the last 12 months are sitting on a return of about -43%.

This marks substantial unrealized losses across the Cardano ecosystem, and aligns with ADA’s steep price declines over the past year.

Notably, the cryptocurrency’s value has shed roughly 74% of its gains since hitting highs of $1.19 in January 2025.

The combination of higher entry levels and prolonged bearish price behavior has left many holders “underwater.”

In this case, any little uptick has become an immediate incentive to book profits.

Currently, sentiment‑driven indicators highlight the negative terrain bulls are trying to navigate. Data also shows the token’s MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) metric has dropped sharply.

In practical terms, a negative MVRV suggests that, on average, selling all ADA at current prices would crystallize a loss for the typical investor.

While not the best of predicaments, the metric has historically meant market capitulation gives way to long‑term accumulation.

In recent months, ADA has seen long‑term believers step in, with whales taking advantage of dips for discounted price levels.

ADA price analysis

From a price analysis standpoint, ADA trades in a broad downtrend that has been in place since its 2025 peak.

Bulls have failed to take control as repeated attempts to reclaim key resistance levels hit supply walls around the $0.30-$0.33 mark.

The lack of sustained upside momentum is what’s helping sellers keep the broader structure bearish.

But could the bottom be in following recent lows?

As noted above, on‑chain metrics and technical indicators do paint a more nuanced picture.

The deeply negative MVRV readings, coupled with oversold readings on traditional oscillators, suggest that Cardano could be on the cusp of a key bounce.

Many short‑term traders and weak‑hand holders have already exited.

“In a zero-sum game, when average returns are severely negative, this is an indication of a looming turnaround with coins always averaging 0% on MVRV’s (average trading returns) across any timeframe,” Santiment posted on X.

If the broader market conditions improve, recovery could follow. This puts the $0.33 level out here as a key bullish reversal level.

Short-term targets on the upside include $0.50 and $0.75.

The current pain for average wallets, however, means buyers could yet eye profits. The $0.22 area offers a crucial demand reload zone.

Yesterday, following a false bullish breakout above the psychological $100 level, WTI crude prices fell sharply towards the $85 area. The primary driver of this rapid decline was comments made by the US President.

According to Donald Trump:
→ the United States has postponed planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days;
→ productive negotiations are ongoing.

However, Iran later denied these claims, stating that no negotiations to end the conflict were taking place. Moreover, Israel continued its strikes on Iran, while Tehran launched fresh attacks on US assets in the Middle East.

Against this backdrop, the US President’s remarks appear to be a form of verbal intervention aimed at pushing oil prices lower — and, as the XTI/USD chart shows, it is having an effect. Today, WTI crude is trading below last week’s lows.

Technical Analysis of XTI/USD

When analysing WTI price movements on 16 March, we highlighted:
→ strong selling pressure near the psychological $100 level;
→ a support zone that formed after the breakout from a local descending channel.

This support area significantly slowed yesterday’s decline in oil prices. At the same time, recent price action allows for the construction of a broad ascending channel, with its lower boundary acting as an important support level.

From a bearish perspective:
→ the $91.50 level, which acted as support last week, has now turned into resistance;
→ if bulls attempt to develop a rebound from the lower boundary, a key test of their strength will be the $95 level, where bears previously pushed prices below the channel median.

In the near term, a period of consolidation between the lower boundary of the channel and the $91.50 level cannot be ruled out, at least until stronger news catalysts emerge, particularly those related to developments around the Strait of Hormuz.

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