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Polymarket, Kalshi contract limits demonstrated in latest U.S. government shutdown fight

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Polymarket, Kalshi contract limits demonstrated in latest U.S. government shutdown fight

The U.S. government is set to partially shut down at midnight, despite the Senate voting in favor of a funding package intended to keep the government running — showing the importance of specificity in prediction market contracts.

The House of Representatives is out of session this week, and will not be back until Monday. Because the House needs to pass the package the Senate voted on Friday evening, this means that the government will technically shut down at 12:00 a.m. ET Saturday, and likely remain shut through the weekend. It’s just a partial shutdown and should not have a significant effect on U.S. residents.

In this way, the shutdown differs radically from the previous U.S. government shutdown, which was the longest in the nation’s history and saw federal employees go unpaid for well over a month while lawmakers negotiated over forthcoming healthcare premium increases.

Polymarket and Kalshi contracts letting users bet on whether the government will shut down or not ranged in how exactly they defined a government shutdown, demonstrating the importance of specificity for these event contracts.

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“This market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to ‘No,’” one contract read. Under the terms of this contract, a partial shutdown qualifies as a shutdown, but importantly, it is dependent on OPM announcing a shutdown.

Earlier Friday evening, it gave the odds as being 88%, having climbed steadily from 40% over the past 24 hours despite reporting from Thursday making it clear that the House would not be able to vote before Monday.

A similar Kalshi contract likewise pointed to OPM as its way of verifying the outcome of the bet. The odds of a shutdown were 93% at press time, having climbed from 44% over the past 24 hours.

OPM’s media response email did not immediately return a request for comment on whether it would announce a shutdown.

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Other bets were more specific. One Polymarket contract allowed users to bet how long the government might remain closed, with one, two and three-plus days all seeing 90%+ chances at press time. A Kalshi counterpart suggested bettors gave “more than [two] days” over 90% odds.

Yet another Polymarket contract asking whether government funding would lapse on January 31 stood at a 99.6% chance at press time, defining a lapse as “the President failing to sign the relevant bill(s) extending government funding” by 11:59 p.m. ET on Friday night — which, again, he can’t do until the House votes on the package on Monday.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Slides as U.S.-Iran Negotiations Fail in Islamabad

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price

Key Takeaways

  • Iranian and U.S. representatives convened in Pakistan’s capital on April 11–12 for direct diplomatic discussions following weeks of military tensions
  • No agreement was secured after approximately 21 hours of intensive negotiations, Vice President JD Vance announced
  • Tehran’s unwillingness to abandon nuclear weapons development emerged as the primary obstacle to a settlement
  • Bitcoin experienced a 2% decline to approximately $71,500 in the aftermath of the failed negotiations
  • XRP decreased 1.69% to $1.33, while Ethereum slipped 1.26% to $2,216, with cryptocurrency markets broadly declining 1–3%

High-ranking officials from Washington and Tehran convened in Pakistan’s capital on April 11 for their first direct, senior-level diplomatic engagement in decades. These discussions came after weeks of military confrontation that erupted on February 27, when the United States and Israel executed joint military operations dubbed “Operation Epic Fury,” striking Iranian military installations and nuclear facilities. The operations resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

The military escalation sent shockwaves through global energy markets and international financial systems. Critical maritime passages near the Strait of Hormuz, responsible for significant portions of worldwide petroleum transport, experienced disruptions due to the intensifying conflict.

Pakistan assumed a crucial intermediary position, providing neutral ground for both parties. While previous ceasefire initiatives had temporarily de-escalated tensions, no permanent resolution had materialized prior to these diplomatic sessions.

Before negotiations commenced, Tehran reportedly pursued sanctions removal, unfreezing of financial assets, and security assurances. Washington maintained firm positions regarding restrictions on Iran’s nuclear capabilities and maintaining freedom of navigation through strategic waterways.

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Esmaeil Baqaei, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, characterized the 24-hour discussion period as addressing the Strait of Hormuz situation, nuclear program concerns, compensation for war damages, sanctions removal, and complete conflict resolution. He indicated that results would hinge on “the seriousness and good faith of the opposing side.”

Baqaei further urged Washington to refrain from “excessive demands and unlawful requests” while honoring Iran’s “legitimate rights and interests.”

Diplomatic Efforts Conclude Without Agreement

Following approximately 21 hours of intensive discussions, Vice President JD Vance announced at a media briefing that negotiators failed to reach a settlement.

“The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement,” Vance stated. He noted that the U.S. had presented its position comprehensively throughout the talks.

According to Vance, the fundamental obstacle centered on Iran’s refusal to pledge abandonment of nuclear weapons ambitions. “The simple fact is that we need to see an affirmative commitment that they will not seek a nuclear weapon,” he explained.

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The American delegation departed Pakistan without securing any agreement. The trajectory of the conflict remains uncertain moving forward.

Cryptocurrency Markets Decline Following Failed Talks

Digital asset markets responded swiftly after Vance’s public statement. Bitcoin declined to approximately $71,500, representing a roughly 2% daily loss.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price
Bitcoin (BTC) Price

Short-term trading charts revealed a pronounced selloff directly correlated with news reports about the diplomatic impasse.

XRP retreated 1.69% to $1.33. Ethereum declined approximately 1.26% to $2,216. Comprehensive losses throughout cryptocurrency markets spanned from 1% to 3%.

As of April 12, the standoff between Washington and Tehran persists without resolution.

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Ether Machine Abandons Public Debut as Dynamix Merger is Terminated

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Ether Machine Abandons Public Debut as Dynamix Merger is Terminated

Ether Machine has called off its planned public debut after the Ethereum treasury-focused firm and Dynamix Corporation agreed to terminate their merger, citing deteriorating market conditions.

In a Saturday post on X, Ether Machine said the decision to end the deal was mutual and effective immediately. The transaction had aimed to take the firm public through a merger with the Nasdaq-listed special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), alongside involvement from The Ether Reserve LLC.

“The Ether Reserve LLC, together with certain other parties thereto, announced today that they have mutually agreed to terminate their previously announced Business Combination Agreement, effective immediately, as a result of unfavorable market conditions,” the firm wrote.

According to a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, an unnamed “Payor,” identified in Annex A of the agreement but not disclosed publicly, must pay $50 million to Dynamix within 15 days of the termination taking effect.

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Related: Bitmine uplists to NYSE as share buyback is increased to $4B

Ether Machine’s $1.5 billion Ethereum treasury plan collapses

Ether Machine first announced plans to launch what it described as the largest yield-bearing Ether (ETH) fund aimed at institutional investors in July last year. At the time, the company, co-founded by former Consensys executives Andrew Keys and David Merin, said it would list on Nasdaq under the ticker “ETHM,” launching with more than 400,000 ETH, worth over $1.5 billion at the time, under management.

In September, Ether Machine secured $654 million in a private financing round, including 150,000 ETH from Ethereum advocate Jeffrey Berns, who also joined the company’s board. The raise was part of its broader plan to build a large Ether treasury ahead of the planned Nasdaq debut, which has now been canceled.

Top Ether treasury firms. Source: EthereumTreasuries.NET

Meanwhile, Dynamix retains a limited window to secure a new deal. The company has until November 22, 2026, to complete another business combination. If it fails to do so, it will be required to liquidate and return funds held in trust to shareholders, in line with its corporate charter.

Related: Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund dumps ETHZilla stake as ETH treasuries face pressure

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Ethereum treasury exits deepen

Ether funds exit amid mounting pressure on Ethereum treasury strategies. Trend Research has fully unwound its Ethereum position, selling 651,757 ETH worth about $1.34 billion while locking in an estimated $747 million loss.

Separately, ETHZilla, formerly a biotech firm that pivoted into an Ethereum treasury strategy during the 2025 hype, has also moved away from Ether accumulation, updating its corporate name and brand to Forum Markets.

Magazine: Bitcoin’s ‘biggest bull catalyst’ would be Saylor’s liquidation — Santiment founder