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Polymarket Odds for Bitcoin Ally Kevin Warsh Jump to 94%

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US President Donald Trump is expected to announce on Friday his intention to nominate Bitcoin-friendly Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, replacing Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May.

Trump said on Thursday that he will be announcing his pick to replace the central bank’s current chair, Jerome Powell, whose term finishes in May, on Friday morning, with Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, and The New York Times reporting that the president is set to announce Warsh as his nomination.

“I’m going to be announcing, I think, a really great choice tomorrow,” Trump said while arriving at the premiere of first lady Melania Trump’s documentary.

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According to reports, Trump met with Warsh at the White House, with a Reuters report saying that he impressed the president.

As a result, Warsh’s odds of being nominated as the next Federal Reserve chair surged from 30% to 94% on prediction market Polymarket, with the former frontrunner, BlackRock executive Rick Rieder, seeing his odds rank to 3.4%.

Trump’s Rhetoric Puts Warsh Ahead of the Pack

Kevin Warsh, National Economic Council Director; Kevin Hassett, BlackRock executive; Rick Reider; and Fed Governor Christopher Waller were the final four candidates.

Trump appeared set in his decision, as he said, “It’s going to be somebody that is very respected, somebody that’s known to everybody in the financial world.”

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“And I think it’s going to be a very good choice,” Trump added.

Trump has long mentioned Warsh as one of his top candidates for the role, and met with the US president in December for his formal interview.

Warsh served as a Fed governor for five years after being nominated by President George W. Bush. He was also considered by Trump in 2017 for the role of Fed chair, which ultimately went to Jerome Powell.

“A lot of people think that this is somebody that could have been there a few years ago,” Trump told reporters Thursday night.

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Trump has continued his attacks on Powell, saying the Fed chair should cut interest rates.

This also benefits crypto, as Warsh holds a far more favorable view of Bitcoin than Powell, who has consistently dismissed the cryptocurrency’s role in the US economy. 

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Crypto market recap: What happened today?

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Crypto market recap: What happened today?

The crypto market saw several important developments today, including a warning from Hong Kong authorities about cryptocurrency scams, a new filing from Grayscale for a crypto-based ETF, and progress on the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Here’s a quick overview of the major events.

Summary

  • Hong Kong senior lost HK$6.6M in three crypto scams involving fake experts.
  • Grayscale files for HYPE ETF, offering exposure to Hyperliquid’s token.
  • US lawmakers near agreement to regulate stablecoin yield to protect banks.

Hong Kong police warn after senior man falls victim to scams

Hong Kong’s Police Cyber Crime Bureau issued a warning today after a 66-year-old retired man lost HK$6.6 million to three separate cryptocurrency scams. According to reports, the elderly victim was first contacted in September 2025 by a fraudster claiming to be a cryptocurrency expert. The scammer convinced the victim to invest, promising guaranteed profits. The man transferred HK$1.4 million to the fraudster, only to realize later that he had been tricked.

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Undeterred, the victim sought help from another fraudster posing as an expert to recover his losses. However, after paying a deposit of 600,000 yuan, the second fraudster also disappeared. In January of this year, the victim was once again approached by a scammer claiming to recover the previous losses. This time, the fraudster instructed the victim to purchase cryptocurrency worth 4.6 million yuan, which the victim did. Once again, the scammer vanished, leaving the man without his entire life savings.

Grayscale files for HYPE ETF linked to Hyperliquid token

In other news, Grayscale filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to launch an exchange-traded fund (ETF) tied to Hyperliquid’s native token, HYPE. The proposed Grayscale HYPE ETF, if approved, would allow investors to gain exposure to the token’s price movement without holding the token directly.

Hyperliquid is a blockchain platform focused on decentralized perpetual futures trading. The proposed ETF would initially track the price of HYPE, with the potential for staking to be added later. Grayscale’s move adds to a growing list of firms exploring investment products tied to newer digital assets like HYPE, as interest in crypto ETFs continues to expand beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.

U.S. lawmakers work on stablecoin yield agreement

Meanwhile, in the United States, progress on the CLARITY Act is moving forward. Reports suggest that lawmakers are close to a tentative agreement on stablecoin yield, a key issue that has slowed the progress of the cryptocurrency market structure bill earlier this year.

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The proposed agreement would address concerns over stablecoin yield and its potential impact on bank deposits. If passed, the legislation could regulate how stablecoin issuers offer yield to their holders. The deal aims to protect innovation while limiting the risk of deposit flight from the banking system. It could be a significant step forward in regulating digital assets and stabilizing the U.S. crypto market.

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Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Drops 7.7% in Biggest Cut Since February

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Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Drops 7.7% in Biggest Cut Since February

Bitcoin’s mining difficulty fell by around 7.7% at the latest adjustment on March 20 to 133.79 trillion at block 941,472, the sharpest drop since February, according to CoinWarz data.

The latest move takes difficulty down from around 145 trillion in mid-March and roughly 148 trillion at the start of the year. A lower difficulty means it takes less computational work to earn the same block reward, slightly improving revenue per unit of hashrate for firms that stay online.

The adjustment followed slower-than-target block production over the prior 2,016 blocks. CloverPool data showed average block times at about 12 minutes 36 seconds, well above Bitcoin’s 10-minute target, forcing the network to recalibrate lower.

In February, difficulty dropped sharply after weather-related disruptions in the United States temporarily knocked large American mining facilities offline, and it later rebounded by about 15% as hashrate returned to the network once power conditions normalized. 

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Bitcoin (BTC) difficulty measures how hard it is for miners to find a valid hash for the next block and is automatically adjusted to keep issuance steady at one block every 10 minutes.

When more computing power, or hashrate, joins the network, difficulty rises to prevent blocks from being mined too quickly, while a decline in hashrate triggers a lower difficulty, making it easier for remaining miners to earn rewards. 

Bitcoin difficulty drops 7.7%. Source: CoinWarz

Related: Cango reports $285M Q4 loss as Bitcoin mining costs surge in 2025

The next difficulty adjustment is currently estimated for April 3, though that projection changes with each new block.

Miners pivot to AI as power costs bite

The difficulty reset also comes as several listed miners push further into AI and high-performance computing infrastructure in search of steadier returns on power and data-center capacity.

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Last week, crypto trader Ran Neuner argued AI had become Bitcoin mining’s biggest competitor as both industries compete for electricity, even going as far as to say that “AI has killed Bitcoin forever.” 

Bitcoin miners such as Core Scientific, MARA Holdings, Hut 8 and Cipher Mining have begun reallocating capacity or pivoting toward AI workloads, while some operators have reduced hashrate or shut down less efficient rigs as profitability tightens.

On Feb 21, Bitdeer liquidated 943 BTC from reserves and sold newly mined coins, cutting corporate holdings to zero. In its latest weekly update on March 21, it confirmed that its BTC holdings remained at zero.

Big questions: Would Bitcoin survive a 10-year power outage?

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