Polymarket Predicts 77% Chance of US Government Shutdown This January

TLDR:

• Polymarket’s odds now show a 77% chance of a US government shutdown by January’s end, a 67% rise in 24 hours. 
• Senator Schumer’s refusal to vote on the DHS funding sparks fears of a prolonged shutdown and regulatory delay. 
• Trump’s prediction of a ‘Democrat shutdown’ fuels growing uncertainty about the timeline for the CLARITY Act. 
• Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong opposes the current version of the CLARITY Act, citing concerns over tokenized equities and privacy risks.

Polymarket has priced in a 77% chance of a U.S. government shutdown before January ends, marking a sharp increase in shutdown odds.

This uncertainty comes amid mounting political tension around funding issues, with the potential to delay the CLARITY Act. The surge in odds has put the crypto industry on high alert for further regulatory delays.

Shutdown Odds Surge, Potentially Jeopardizing the CLARITY Act

Polymarket’s latest data reveals that the odds of a U.S. government shutdown have spiked to 77% by the end of January 2026. This represents a dramatic 67% increase within just 24 hours, raising alarms in the political and financial sectors. 

The primary catalyst for this surge is the ongoing political gridlock over government funding. Particularly regarding the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) bill.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer recently announced that Senate Democrats would oppose funding the DHS if the bill included provisions they find objectionable. Starting with those related to ICE enforcement. 

His remarks, along with Trump’s warning of a “Democrat shutdown,” have ignited fears that Congress may fail to pass crucial funding before the deadline. This, in turn, could trigger another lengthy government shutdown.

The last one in late 2025, caused significant disruptions in legislative processes. This would delay efforts to pass bills like the CLARITY Act which aims to bring clarity to the digital asset.

The CLARITY Act, which has already faced delays due to the prior government shutdown, now risks even further setbacks. However, with the current political climate and the looming threat of another shutdown, the chances of it being enacted appear slim.

Trump’s Shutdown Prediction Adds to Industry Concerns

In addition to the concerns raised by Schumer’s opposition, former President Donald Trump has further fueled uncertainty by predicting that a shutdown is likely. Speaking to Fox Business, Trump stated, “We’re probably going to end up in another Democrat shutdown.” 

While Trump’s comment was somewhat vague, it underscores the volatile political landscape in Washington. The crypto industry has expressed its frustration over the stalled regulatory framework.

Trump’s remarks only add fuel to the prolonged uncertainty surrounding the fate of the CLARITY Act. Alongside the possibility of a government shutdown, has created a sense of dread among crypto stakeholders.

Many in the industry were hopeful that the legislation would provide much-needed clarity on the classification of digital assets, stablecoin regulations. However these efforts now seem more vulnerable than ever.

Furthermore, the situation is exacerbated by the recent withdrawal of Coinbase’s support for the bill. CEO Brian Armstrong voiced concerns over several provisions in the CLARITY Act.

He described it as a “de facto ban” on tokenized equities and restrictive regulations on decentralized finance (DeFi). With major players like Coinbase distancing themselves from the bill, the chances of passing remain slim, leaving the crypto industry in a state of limbo.

As the deadline for government funding approaches, the future of the CLARITY Act hangs in the balance. With political infighting and regulatory uncertainty casting long shadows over the crypto landscape.