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Ray Dalio Warns of World Order Breakdown: Is Crypto at Risk?

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Ray Dalio Warns of World Order Breakdown: Is Crypto at Risk?

Billionaire investor and Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio says the global order established after World War II is breaking down. He argued that the world is entering what he calls “Stage 6” of the “Big Cycle.”

His warning has triggered renewed debate about geopolitical instability and its impact on cryptocurrency markets.

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Ray Dalio Says We’re in “Stage 6” as World Order Breaks Down

Dalio frames the current moment through what he calls the “Big Cycle.” This is a pattern in which dominant empires rise, peak, and eventually decline. According to this model, the world is now in “Stage 6.”

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“In my parlance, we are in the Stage 6 part of the Big Cycle in which there is great disorder arising from being in a period in which there are no rules, might is right, and there is a clash of great powers,” the post read.

Unlike domestic political systems, Dalio argues, international relations lack effective enforcement mechanisms such as binding laws or neutral arbitration. As a result, global affairs are ultimately governed by power rather than rules. When a dominant country weakens and a rival gains strength, tensions typically increase.

He identifies five types of conflict that tend to escalate in such periods: trade and economic wars, technology wars, capital wars involving sanctions and financial restrictions, geopolitical struggles over alliances and territory, and finally, military wars. 

Most major conflicts, he argues, begin with economic and financial pressure long before bullets are fired. Dalio draws comparisons to the 1930s, when a global debt crisis, protectionist policies, political extremism, and rising nationalism preceded World War II. 

He notes that before large-scale military conflict erupted, countries engaged in tariff battles, asset freezes, embargoes, and financial restrictions, tactics that resemble measures used today.

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In his view, the most significant flashpoint in the current cycle is the strategic rivalry between the United States and China, particularly over Taiwan.

“The choice that opposing countries face—either fighting or backing down—is very hard to make. Both are costly—fighting in terms of lives and money, and backing down in terms of the loss of status, since it shows weakness, which leads to reduced support. When two competing entities each have the power to destroy the other, both must have extremely high trust that they won’t be unacceptably harmed or killed by the other. Managing the prisoner’s dilemma well, however, is extremely rare,” Dalio wrote.

However, warnings like this are not new. Dalio has issued similar cautions for years. This suggests his recent remarks are part of a consistent long-term thesis rather than a sudden shift.

Still, it’s worth noting that rather than making a direct prediction about military conflict, Dalio argues that the structural conditions historically associated with major power transitions are now in place.

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Broader Implications for the Crypto Market

Dalio’s warning raises questions about how digital assets might perform. In periods marked by sanctions, asset freezes, and restrictions on cross-border finance, cryptocurrencies can attract attention as alternative settlement rails that operate outside traditional banking infrastructure. 

Bitcoin, in particular, is often viewed as resistant to censorship and capital controls. These characteristics could become more relevant if financial fragmentation accelerates. At the same time, cryptocurrencies remain sensitive to global liquidity conditions. 

Historically, geopolitical stress and policy tightening have triggered broad risk-off reactions across markets. This, in turn, may weigh on equities and high-beta assets alike. 

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If rising tensions lead to tighter financial conditions or reduced investor appetite for risk, crypto markets could experience heightened volatility in the short term.

“For stocks, this likely means higher volatility, lower valuations, and sharper swings as geopolitical risks rise. For crypto, weakening trust in traditional money could drive long-term interest, but short-term stress may still trigger severe price swings,” analyst Ted Pillows stated.

Another key factor is that heightened geopolitical tensions may push investors toward traditional safe-haven assets. Gold has historically benefited during periods of uncertainty, as capital seeks stability and long-standing stores of value. 

In recent months, precious metals have surged to record highs, while cryptocurrencies struggled to recover following October’s tariff-driven market downturn. This divergence highlights that, despite Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative, many investors still treat gold as the primary hedge during acute geopolitical stress.

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If tensions deepen, capital flows could continue favoring established defensive assets over more volatile alternatives. For crypto markets, that dynamic suggests a complex outlook: while long-term narratives around monetary debasement and financial fragmentation may strengthen, near-term price action could remain vulnerable to shifts in global risk sentiment.

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Second US Warplane Hit Over Iran; Search Ongoing

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Iran strikes Gulf energy network as oil surges past $110

Two U.S. military aircraft were shot down in separate incidents during combat operations over Iran on April 3 — an F-15E Strike Eagle and an A-10 Thunderbolt II — with a search-and-rescue operation still ongoing for one missing crew member as Operation Epic Fury approaches its sixth week.

Summary

  • Iran shot down a U.S. F-15E Strike Eagle on April 3; one of the two crew members was rescued, the other remains unaccounted for
  • An A-10 Thunderbolt II dispatched during the rescue effort was also struck by Iranian fire; the pilot ejected and was subsequently recovered
  • The incidents directly contradict recent U.S. government claims of complete air dominance over Iran, complicating the administration’s public messaging on the war’s progress

U.S. officials confirmed to CBS News that the F-15E Strike Eagle — a two-seat aircraft flown by a pilot and a weapons systems officer — was shot down by Iranian forces. One crew member was rescued by U.S. forces following a combat search-and-rescue mission. The second crew member, a weapons systems officer, remains missing. Images verified by CNN showed low-flying rescue aircraft conducting operations over Khuzestan Province in central Iran.

A rescue helicopter that extracted the surviving pilot was hit by small arms fire during the operation, wounding crew members on board before landing safely. An A-10 Warthog dispatched as part of the search effort was then struck by Iranian fire, forcing its pilot to eject over the Persian Gulf before recovery.

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Iran’s state media posted claims of downing the aircraft and announced a reward for the capture of any “enemy pilot or pilots.” Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf mocked the U.S. search effort publicly on X.

A Direct Contradiction

The downing conflicts with statements from President Trump, who said in a prime-time address two days earlier: “They have no anti-aircraft equipment. Their radar is 100% annihilated. We are unstoppable as a military force.” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and other officials have repeatedly asserted U.S. air dominance over Iran.

According to Axios, three F-15Es had previously been lost to friendly fire during the conflict. The war has now claimed 13 American lives and wounded 365 service members. Israel separately suspended airstrikes in areas relevant to the ongoing U.S. rescue effort, according to an Israeli official speaking anonymously to the Associated Press.

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Economic Pressure

Iran’s response has escalated alongside the aircraft losses. Tehran has imposed what amounts to a toll system on the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway through which approximately 20% of globally traded oil transits. Missile and drone attacks struck oil, gas, and desalination facilities across the Persian Gulf on Friday. The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Austan Goolsbee told CBS News that the Iran war risks fueling inflation in a way that could prevent the Fed from cutting rates in 2026.

As analysts warned months ago, Middle East escalation carries supply chain and inflationary consequences that reverberate across all risk assets. Institutional capital flows have already shifted in response to the conflict’s progression, with large asset managers repositioning across both traditional and digital markets as geopolitical uncertainty deepens.

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Terra-born Leap Wallet exits crypto market by May 28

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Terra-born Leap Wallet exits crypto market by May 28

Leap Wallet will shut down its products by May 28, ending a crypto wallet project that began in the Terra ecosystem and later expanded to Cosmos and other chains. 

Summary

  • Leap Wallet will shut down its apps, web platform, exchange tool, and validator service by May 28.
  • Users can still access assets through another wallet using their recovery phrase or private key.
  • Leap began in Terra and expanded into Cosmos after the 2022 collapse changed its path.

The closure affects its browser extension, mobile apps, web app, exchange tool, and validator service.

Leap said on Friday that it plans to sunset its software suite by May 28. The shutdown covers its browser extension, iOS and Android apps, Leap WebApp, Swapfast exchange platform, and Leap Cosmos Hub Validator.

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The team said the decision came after building across multiple networks since 2022. In a post on X, it said, “We started Leap in 2022 to redefine what wallet experiences in crypto mean.” It added that the project later grew across “100+ chains.”

Leap also said the move was difficult for the team. It stated, “This decision was not made lightly,” while adding that it still believes in the long-term future of crypto and the interchain ecosystem.

Leap said noncustodial users will still be able to access their assets after the shutdown. The team explained that users can restore the same wallet address through another wallet by using a recovery phrase or private key.

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The FAQ said there is no need to move assets to a new address. It explained, “There is no need to withdraw or send your assets to a new address,” because importing the recovery phrase or private key will restore access to the same address.

The team also issued a separate notice for Cosmos users who delegated ATOM to Leap’s validator. It asked them to redelegate to another validator if they want to keep earning staking rewards.

Project began in Terra ecosystem

Leap launched in late 2021 with a $50,000 grant from Terraform Labs, the now-defunct firm behind TerraUSD. In early 2022, the project raised a $3.2 million seed round co-led by CoinFund and Pantera Capital.

At the start, Leap positioned itself as a wallet focused on Terra, with tools for staking LUNA, trading, and connecting with applications such as Anchor and Mirror. It aimed to offer a wallet experience similar to what MetaMask built for Ethereum and Phantom built for Solana.

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After the collapse of Terra in 2022, Leap shifted its focus and expanded into the wider Cosmos ecosystem. That move allowed the project to continue as a multi-chain wallet after its original market changed.

The shutdown now closes that chapter for the wallet. While the apps and related services will go offline, users will still retain control of their assets through standard wallet recovery tools supported by other providers.

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Leap Wallet to Shut Down All Products on May 28, 2026

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • Leap Wallet will sunset all products, including extensions and mobile apps, on May 28, 2026, across iOS and Android.
  • Users can migrate safely using their recovery phrase, as Leap is non-custodial and assets remain on the blockchain at all times.
  • ATOM delegators staking with Leap’s Cosmos Hub validator must redelegate early due to network unbonding period delays.
  • After the May 28 deadline, all installed Leap apps will stop functioning, though fund recovery via recovery phrase remains fully possible.

Leap Wallet has officially announced that it will discontinue all its products on May 28, 2026. The crypto wallet provider has been active since 2022, serving users across more than 100 blockchain networks.

The shutdown covers extensions, mobile apps, and several associated services. Users are advised to begin migrating their assets to other supported wallets ahead of the deadline.

All core wallet functions will remain available until that date to allow a smooth transition.

Products Scheduled for Discontinuation After the May Deadline

The shutdown affects a broad range of products tied to the Leap ecosystem. These include Leap Wallet browser extensions and mobile versions on iOS and Android.

Compass Wallet, the Leap WebApp, and the Swapfast service are also on the list. Leap Cosmos Hub Validator and Leap Cosmos Snaps will be discontinued as well.

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The team behind Leap shared the news through an official tweet. They noted the wallet was launched to change what crypto wallet experiences could offer users.

Since launch, it expanded to support over 100 chains across multiple ecosystems. The post also reflected the care and responsibility the team felt toward its user base.

In the announcement tweet, the team wrote that the decision to shut down was not made lightly. They added that they continue to believe in the long-term future of the crypto space.

They also extended appreciation to partners and users who supported the product over the years. The message was direct, measured, and absent of any bitterness or blame.

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Until May 28, 2026, all listed products will retain their existing core functionality. Users can still view balances, send tokens, and manage their staking positions.

Exporting recovery phrases and private keys will also remain available throughout this period. No core feature will be removed before the official sunset date arrives.

What Users Must Do Before the Shutdown Date

Users holding assets in Leap Wallet are encouraged to move to another wallet provider. The team recommended Keplr, MetaMask, Phantom, and Rabby as compatible alternatives.

Since Leap is a non-custodial wallet, assets are held on the blockchain and not within the app. This means migration does not require any complex transfer of funds between addresses.

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Any user with a recovery phrase can import it directly into another supported wallet. That process will restore all addresses and balances automatically across compatible chains.

No manual transfers are necessary for this to work correctly. Starting early reduces the risk of delays or missed steps before the deadline.

Those who delegated ATOM to Leap’s Cosmos Hub validator must also take a separate action. They need to redelegate to another validator to keep earning staking rewards.

Network unbonding periods can stretch over several days, so acting promptly matters. A detailed migration guide with full instructions is available at leapwallet.io.

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After May 28, 2026, all Leap products will stop functioning, including already-installed apps. Users who miss the deadline can still recover their funds using their recovery phrase.

Importing it into any compatible wallet will restore full access to holdings. Migration support remains available at support@leapwallet.io until the shutdown date.

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Polymarket Pulls Missing US Pilot Market, Faces Questions Over Rules

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Polymarket Pulls Missing US Pilot Market, Faces Questions Over Rules

Polymarket removed a market tied to the fate of a missing US service member after mounting backlash, saying the listing violated its “integrity standards.”

The controversy erupted after a prediction market appeared asking whether US authorities would confirm the rescue of a pilot reportedly shot down over Iran, with most users (over 60%) betting that they wouldn’t be rescued until Saturday.

US Representative Seth Moulton condemned the market, calling it “disgusting” and expressing concerns over people speculating on the fate of a potentially injured service member. “They could be your neighbor, a friend, a family member. And people are betting on whether or not they’ll be saved,” Moulton wrote.

Representative criticizes Polymarket market. Source: Seth Moulton

In response, Polymarket said it had taken the market down immediately, adding that it should not have been listed and that the company is reviewing how it passed internal safeguards. The platform did not provide further detail on what specific rule had been breached.

Related: Polymarket expands into equities and commodities with Pyth price feeds

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Polymarket under scrutiny over rules

While Polymarket said it took the market down because it did not meet its integrity standards, the platform did not specify which rule had been violated, prompting further scrutiny from users.

“I’m looking at the “Market Integrity” page, and I checked the TOS, and I don’t see which prohibition is relevant here,” Jack Newsham, a correspondent on Business Insider’s national desk, wrote on X.

As Cointelegraph reported, Polymarket has seen a sharp rise in fees and revenue after expanding its fee model on March 30, with daily fees jumping from about $363,000 to over $1 million and revenue nearing $1 million at its peak. The increase follows broader taker fees across categories like finance, politics and tech, as the platform ramps up monetization.

Related: Crypto VC Paradigm is developing a prediction market terminal: Fortune

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Insider trading concerns rise on prediction markets

There have also been growing concerns about insider trading on prediction markets. Last month, it was reported that a group of traders made about $1 million by correctly betting on the timing of US strikes on Iran, with some placing trades just hours before the attacks. The activity, which involved newly created wallets focused almost entirely on strike-related bets, raised insider trading suspicions.

To address these concerns, at least 42 Democratic lawmakers have urged the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Office of Government Ethics to warn federal employees against using non-public information to trade on prediction markets.

Big Questions: Is China hoarding gold so yuan becomes global reserve instead of USD?