Bitcoin’s on-chain signals have cooled after a run of elevated profitability and aggressive selling, suggesting a potential valuation reset rather than a definitive bottom. In the latest data reads, investor profitability has drifted back toward the long-run mean, while spot order flow shows signs of calmer unloading even as trading activity remains subdued. The interplay between valuation metrics and liquidity conditions is shaping expectations for when genuine spot demand could re-emerge and whether that would accompany a sustained trend reversal. Across the metrics, there is a defensively postured market rather than a clear pivot higher, at least for now.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin’s market value to realized value (MVRV) has normalized after previously trading at extremes, signaling a shift back toward historical baselines rather than an overt undervaluation.
• Realized capitalization declined to about $1.09 trillion from a peak near $1.12 trillion in November 2025, reflecting roughly $33 billion in on-chain value leaving the network.
• Coins aged three to six months now represent 25.9% of the supply, the largest cohort in the dataset, indicating a substantial portion of holders purchased higher and are underwater on many positions.
• Spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) improved to -$161.5 million from -$177.1 million, while spot trading volume slipped to $6 billion from $7.6 billion, pointing to thinner participation and a more cautious posture among traders.
• Bitcoin has remained range-bound around $62,000–$64,000, suggesting supply absorption could pick up pace only if spot participation and risk appetite recover from current levels.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC

Sentiment: Neutral

Price impact: Neutral. On-chain signals suggest a balanced view rather than a clear, imminent move higher or lower.

Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. The combination of a mean-reverting valuation backdrop and thinner spot activity argues for patience until clearer demand signals emerge.

Market context: The data aligns with a broader phase of cautious liquidity in crypto markets, where on-chain metrics and macro- and risk-off sentiment influence how quickly fresh spot demand can materialize. While some coins’ outflows have stabilized, the absence of a decisive upshift in participation keeps near-term catalysts subdued.

Why it matters

The evolving on-chain picture matters because it reframes the risk-reward calculus for Bitcoin holders and potential entrants. A move back toward the long-run mean in MVRV implies that the market is not yet deeply undervalued, even as some segments of investors have capitulated in the sense of exiting positions near peak prices. The retrace in realized capitalization reinforces the notion that capital has been reallocated away from high-cost entrants, a behavior consistent with risk-off dynamics rather than aggressive accumulation.

From a supply-demand perspective, the aging cohort — coins held for three to six months — being the largest on record signals that much of the newly minted supply may be sitting underwater. That concentration creates a potential for a more pronounced impact if macro conditions or on-chain signals improve, but it also poses a risk: a wave of unprofitable sellers could re-emerge if price pressure intensifies. The literature around realized cap and MVRV suggests caution, as movements toward positive momentum have historically required renewed, broad-based demand rather than a few strong rallies.

On the liquidity side, the improvement in spot CVD alongside a drop in trading volume paints a portrait of restrained selling pressure rather than a sudden flood of buy orders. In prior cycles, periods where CVD tightened and price action stabilized often foreshadow a bottom, but only when participation recovers meaningfully. In this cycle, BTC has held within a relatively narrow corridor, which implies the market is digesting recent action rather than signaling an imminent breakout.

Analysts have pointed to a neutral-to-defensive posture in the current regime. The data does not indicate a forced capitulation, but it also stops short of confirming the onset of a sustainable upturn. The resulting stance mirrors a broader crypto market landscape where liquidity remains episodic, and traders await clearer macro cues and on-chain signals before reestablishing aggressive exposure.

In related analyses, researchers have flagged similar themes in other data points. For instance, discussions around excessive loss realization have highlighted potential pressure points that could push BTC below certain thresholds, while other research has underscored the possibility of a fair-value gap guiding price targets in different market environments. Taken together, these threads reinforce a cautious approach to near-term positioning until volatility and participation trends tilt decisively in favor of bulls.

What to watch next

• BTC price stability within the $62k–$64k range and any sustained breakout above or below these levels.
• Momentum in realized capitalization — whether the roughly $33 billion drawdown since November 2025 begins to reverse as new capital re-enters the market.
• The share of the supply held by the 3–6 month cohort and any shifts toward older or younger age bands, which could signal changing holder behavior.
• On-chain liquidity signals, particularly if spot volume begins to rebound from current lows and CVD moves toward positive territory.
• Any regulatory or institutional developments that could influence risk sentiment and bid/offer dynamics in spot markets.

Sources & verification

• On-chain profitability and MVRV normalization observations attributed to expert commentary on X, including excerpts from Chris Beamish.
• Realized capitalization levels and monthly change data tracked by on-chain analytics datasets (noting the $1.09 trillion level and the $33 billion decline from the November 2025 peak).
• Spot CVD and trading volume figures, including the move from -$177.1 million to -$161.5 million and the drop in spot volume from $7.6 billion to $6.0 billion.
• Analyses describing the distribution of coins by age, with the 3–6 month cohort comprising 25.9% of supply.
• Related studies and articles cited in the original material for context on potential price implications and fair-value considerations.

Bitcoin valuation indicators in focus

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has been navigating a delicate balance between on-chain fundamentals and the psychology of risk markets. The normalization of MVRV away from extreme deviations suggests that investors are no longer chasing outsized upside with the same intensity as earlier in the cycle, while realized cap has cooled after peaking in late 2025. The 30-day realized cap is down about 2.26%, signaling that capital outflows have persisted, even as some long-term holders remain reluctant to surrender positions wholesale.

The market’s price behavior in the $62,000 to $64,000 zone has become a focal point. In many periods when CVD trends toward stability and the bid-ask dynamics thin out, price action tends to consolidate before the next leg — if there is one — depends on the injection of fresh demand. The current mix of data implies a neutral stance on near-term direction, with the potential for a more decisive move only if spot participation and new inflows pick up meaningfully.

These dynamics illuminate how market participants are weighing risk, returns, and capital preservation in an environment where on-chain signals can diverge from short-term price action. While the trajectory remains uncertain, the analytical framework suggests that bulls will need a sustained improvement in on-chain demand and liquidity to push BTC beyond a fresh milestone, beyond the immediate range that has defined recent trading sessions.

Terraform Labs’ estate has filed a lawsuit against quantitative trading firm Jane Street, alleging that the firm abused insider knowledge to profit from Terra and that it inadvertently contributed to the downfall of the ecosystem.

“In this case, however, Jane Street Capital and its traders exploited the public’s participation in crypto markets and contributed to the collapse of Terraform’s cryptocurrency ecosystem. They did so by misappropriating confidential information and manipulating market prices,” the suit reads.

The filing is heavily redacted, but focuses on a move related to the UST Curve 3pool. Per Snyder, Terraform withdrew $150 million of UST from the pool, a move that “was not publicly announced,” to deploy it to 4pool in the coming week.

Nine minutes later, Jane Street allegedly made its “first and only sale of UST in that pool,” selling $85 million of UST in a single transaction.

Snyder says that the swap directly led to a steep selloff in UST that resulted in Terra’s subsequent death spiral, and accuses Jane Street of using its connections with Terraform Labs to “maximize its own profits and avoid losses suffered by other investors who did not have this confidential information.”

Following the UST depeg, LUNA, now LUNC, plummeted from a $29 billion market capitalization to nearly zero in a matter of days, after reaching as high as $41 billion in April 2022.

In December, Terra founder Do Kwon was sentenced to 15 years in prison, a sentence that exceeded the Department of Justice’s 12-year target, after Kwon pleaded guilty to fraud charges in August 2025.

Jane Street is one of the largest quantitative firms in traditional finance and crypto, with more than $650 billion in assets under management (AUM).

• SEC hires ex-Chainlink lawyer Taylor Lindman to head Crypto Task Force counsel.
• LINK rebounds near $8 but is still down about 51% over the past year.
• Chainlink (LINK) price analysis shows support at $6.80 and resistance near $8.19.

Chainlink (LINK) has rebounded slightly, though it is still in the red as the US SEC taps Chainlink’s veteran Taylor Lindman to head the Crypto Task Force counsel.

At press time, LINK was currently trading at around $8.18, recovering slightly from a low of $8.13. This rebound comes amid broader market volatility that has seen LINK fall roughly 51% over the past year.

SEC taps Chainlink veteran for crypto regulation

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has appointed Taylor Lindman, formerly a senior legal officer at Chainlink Labs, as chief counsel for its Crypto Task Force.

Lindman brings over five years of experience in blockchain and regulatory compliance.

He played a key role in advising Chainlink on legal matters and navigating complex digital asset regulations before his departure in February 2023.

Lindman’s move to the SEC signals that regulators are increasingly interested in professionals with hands-on experience in decentralised finance (DeFi) and smart contract ecosystems.

SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce, who leads the Crypto Task Force, welcomed Lindman’s appointment.

Analysts suggest that Lindman’s expertise could influence future guidance and enforcement actions around digital assets.

LINK price performance

The market appeared to respond positively with institutional investors, including firms like Grayscale, steadily accumulating LINK tokens.

The continued institutional interest, combined with Lindman’s transition to the SEC, has reignited confidence in Chainlink’s long-term positioning.

Short-term technical indicators show that LINK recently found support at around $6.80, while the resistance at $8.19 has limited upward movement in the past.

The rebound above $8 could open the door for higher price action, while a fall below $6.80 might signal further downside risk.

Short-term LINK price prediction

With regulatory developments and institutional interest converging, LINK is drawing attention from both traders and long-term investors.

Its price movement over the next few weeks will likely reflect a mix of market sentiment, technical pressure, and evolving regulatory signals.

For short-term traders, analysts have highligted $6.80 as the immediate key short-term support level to watch. Holding above this level would suggest that the market is stabilising after recent volatility.

If LINK can break through the $8.19 resistance, the next target would be $9.51.

A sustained move above $10.80 could indicate stronger bullish momentum, attracting further buying interest.

On the downside, if the $6.80 support fails, traders should monitor the $5.38 zone as a potential safety net.

Price action around these levels will be critical in defining LINK’s short-term trend.

Bitcoin price is holding above $62,000 support, but weak volume participation raises concerns that the current bounce lacks strength and downside risk remains.

Bitcoin (BTC) price action has entered a consolidative phase after weeks of corrective movement, with the market recently testing daily support near the $62,900 region. This level has so far held firm, preventing an immediate breakdown and allowing price to stabilize within the broader trading range. While the defense of support may appear constructive on the surface, underlying market signals suggest caution remains warranted.

The recent bounce from support lacks convincing momentum, particularly when analyzing volume behavior. In healthy reversals or sustained rallies, price expansion is typically accompanied by strong bullish participation. However, current market conditions reveal subdued trading activity, raising questions about whether the move represents genuine accumulation or merely a temporary oversold reaction.

As long as volume remains weak, Bitcoin may struggle to transition into a sustained bullish trend, leaving the market vulnerable to further downside rotation.

Bitcoin price key technical points

• $62,900 daily support defended: Buyers preventing immediate breakdown
• Low volume weakens recovery: Lack of strong bullish participation
• $60,000 range low remains magnet: Continued rotation within broader range likely

Bitcoin’s recent reaction at the $62,900 support level demonstrates that buyers are still active within this region. The market has shown resilience by holding above support, preventing a rapid continuation lower. From a structural standpoint, this defense keeps Bitcoin trading within its established high-timeframe range rather than confirming a trend collapse.

However, price stability alone does not confirm strength. The bounce from support has occurred with noticeably low volume participation across the volume profile. Strong reversals typically require an influx of directional buying pressure capable of shifting market sentiment.

Without this participation, rebounds often fail to sustain momentum, even as broader institutional and regulatory developments, such as Arizona lawmakers advancing a digital assets reserve fund bill, continue to highlight growing adoption narratives.

This dynamic suggests that the current move may represent an oversold reaction rather than the beginning of a broader bullish recovery.

Volume profile reveals lack of conviction

Volume remains one of the most critical indicators in assessing market intent. In Bitcoin’s current structure, volume profile nodes reveal limited bullish conviction during the recovery phase. Despite holding support, buyers have not entered the market aggressively enough to drive expansion toward higher resistance levels.

When price rises on declining or weak volume, it often indicates short covering or temporary relief rather than genuine demand. These conditions frequently lead to renewed selling pressure once the initial bounce loses momentum.

The absence of strong bullish influx increases the probability that Bitcoin continues rotating within its broader range rather than initiating a breakout. Until volume expands meaningfully, the market remains susceptible to further corrective movement.

Range structure keeps $60,000 in focus

Bitcoin continues to trade within a clearly defined high-timeframe range between resistance near $72,000 and range-low support around $60,000. Markets operating within ranges often rotate between extremes when neither buyers nor sellers establish dominance.

Given the weak nature of the current bounce, the $60,000 range low becomes an increasingly likely destination. This level represents a significant liquidity zone and has historically attracted strong market reactions.

A move toward $60,000 would not necessarily invalidate the broader market structure but instead reinforce the ongoing consolidation phase. Range environments commonly feature multiple tests of support and resistance before a decisive directional move emerges.

This type of price behavior has recently been amplified by macro-driven volatility, with Bitcoin swinging sharply as tariff-related headlines triggered heightened discussion across crypto social media.

What to expect in the coming price action

From a technical, price action, and market structure perspective, Bitcoin’s defense of $62,000 support remains constructive but fragile. Without a clear expansion in bullish volume, the current bounce risks fading into continued downside rotation.

If low participation persists, price is likely to revisit the $60,000 range-low support while continuing to trade within the broader $72,000 to $60,000 high-timeframe range.

Key Takeaways

• Over $370 million in total crypto liquidations occurred in the last session, with Bitcoin futures open interest plunging 20% from its peak.
• Institutional accumulation persists despite the drop, with firms like Metaplanet executing strategic spot purchases to defend their average cost basis.
• Technical indicators mark $60,000 as the decisive line in the sand; a confirmed breakdown targets $55,000 as the next major liquidity zone.

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This guide explains in full detail how to buy Pepeto before its presale ends, how the meme coin infrastructure platform works, and why analysts project 100x or more from the current price of $0.000000185.

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How to buy Pepeto: step by step guide

Step 1: Set up a crypto wallet

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What is Pepeto and why is it projected for 100x?

Pepeto is not just another meme coin. It is the first dedicated trading infrastructure platform built for the $45 billion meme coin economy. Three working demo products are live right now at pepeto.io. A cross chain swap lets traders move meme coins between networks. A blockchain bridge connects different chains. And a zero fee decentralized exchange saves money on every trade.

SolidProof and Coinsult both completed independent security audits. Zero percent tax on every buy and sell. The project traces back to an original Pepe Coin cofounder who watched $PEPE hit $7 billion with zero products and decided to build what the market was missing. A confirmed Binance listing is approaching.

At $0.000000185, a 100x needs just $50 million market cap. SHIB reached $40 billion with zero infrastructure. DOGE hit $90 billion on tweets alone. The math is simple. The window is now.

Is Pepeto safe to buy?

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The bottom line on buying Pepeto

The Pepeto presale is simple to join. Connect a supported wallet and buy PEPETO with ETH, USDT, BNB, or credit card at $0.000000185. There is no minimum purchase. Staking currently offers 212% APY, which adds serious value on top of the projected 100x from presale to exchange listing. Over $7.3 million raised and 70% filled. Once the presale closes, this price is gone forever.

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FAQs

How to buy Pepeto in 2026?

Visit pepeto.io, connect MetaMask or Trust Wallet, fund with ETH, USDT, BNB, or credit card, select the amount, and confirm. Pepeto is only available through the official presale website.

Where can I buy Pepeto tokens?

Pepeto can only be purchased at pepeto.io during the presale. It is not on any exchange. Any PEPETO token appearing on exchanges or DEXs is fake and not connected to the real project.

Is Pepeto a good investment in 2026?

At $0.000000185 with three working demos, dual audits, 212% APY staking, and a confirmed Binance listing ahead, Pepeto offers 100x math to just $50 million market cap. The presale is 70% filled.

Disclaimer: This is a Press Release provided by a third party who is responsible for the content. Please conduct your own research before taking any action based on the content.

The well-followed Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index briefly looked like it was recovering after the Feb. 5 crash. It wasn’t.

The premium has now been negative for 40 consecutive days, according to Coinglass data, setting the longest streak of sub-zero readings since 2023. The current reading sits at -0.0467%, barely changed from two weeks ago, when a sharp narrowing from -0.22% suggested U.S. buyers had stepped in near the lows.

The index measures the price gap between bitcoin on Coinbase and the global market average. Coinbase is widely used as a proxy for U.S. institutional and dollar-denominated flows, so a persistent negative reading means American investors are consistently paying less than the rest of the world — either selling more aggressively or simply not showing up.

The previous record was roughly 30 days of continuous negative premium during the October 2025 drawdown. That streak broke when a sharp bounce brought U.S. buyers back into the market. This time, the bounce came, as bitcoin recovered as much as 15% from its Feb. 5 intraday low. But the premium never followed.

That divergence shows that while price recovered, the composition of demand didn’t. Whatever buying drove bitcoin back above $62,000 came from outside U.S. hours, outside Coinbase’s order books, or both.

The one constructive read is that the premium has been gradually less negative since early February, creeping from -0.22% back toward -0.05%. It’s improving, just not fast enough to flip positive, a threshold that historically coincides with sustained accumulation phases rather than relief rallies.

Interestingly, Google searches for “bitcoin zero” in the U.S. hit record highs earlier this month, as CoinDesk reported, even as global search interest for the term remained flat.

Both signals point to American investors specifically losing conviction at a pace that hasn’t shown up elsewhere.

Days after JPMorgan Chase & Co. admitted to debanking President Donald Trump after the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol, the Federal Reserve seeks comments on its proposal that would stop government supervisors from pushing banks to sever ties with lawful customers based on their activities, including crypto companies.

“We have heard troubling cases of debanking — where supervisors use concerns about reputation risk to pressure financial institutions to debank customers because of their political views, religious beliefs or involvement in disfavored but lawful businesses,” including cryptocurrency, said Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman.

“Discrimination by financial institutions on these bases is unlawful and does not have a role in the Federal Reserve’s supervisory framework,” she added.

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, in its capacity as the supervisor of national banks, had already moved to cut reputational factors from its supervision last year, and the Federal Reserve had similarly announced in July that such risk would no longer be a part of its bank examinations, so this rule process would codify that move.

Crypto debanking has been well documented and freely acknowledged by banking regulators appointed by Trump, though new examples continue to emerge. In a response to a lawsuit filed last month by Trump and the Trump Organization, JPMorgan, the nation’s largest bank, said for the first time that it cut off more than 50 Trump accounts in February 2021. JPMorgan did not specify a reason for closing the accounts. On Nov. 23, 2025, Jack Mallers, CEO of crypto payments company Strike, wrote a social media post that immediately went viral, saying JPMorgan closed all his accounts without cause.

In a Jan. 26 memo to the Board of Governors, the Fed’s staff wrote that the board’s proposal would “codify the removal of reputation risk from the Board’s supervisory programs” and prohibit the Fed from “encouraging or compelling” banks to deny or condition services to customers involved in “politically disfavored but lawful business activities.”

In the proposal, the Fed Board said it intends to include “permitted payment stablecoin issuers” within its definition of covered banking organizations after completing separate rulemakings, a move that could directly affect crypto-native firms seeking access to the banking system.

The Fed said comments on its proposal to remove reputation risk from its supervision of banks are due in 60 days from Feb. 23.

Ether (ETH) whale activity on a major exchange has slowed since the start of 2026, with roughly 2 million ETH traded in large-sized transactions over the past 45 days.

ETH is currently in the midst of its worst weekly losing streak since 2022, with exchange flow trends and futures market liquidation data impacting investor expectations for Ether’s short and long-term price direction in the broader market.

Ether whale order size hints at fading participation

CryptoQuant data shows that the average ETH whale sell orders on Binance have fallen to around 1,350 ETH in recent weeks, down from roughly 2,250 ETH in early January. Assuming 15 to 35 whale-sized executions per day, the cumulative gross sell-side turnover since Jan. 8 is estimated at around 1.8 to 2 million ETH over the past 45 days.

Using an average price of $2,400, this activity equates to roughly $4.3 billion to $4.8 billion in large-order executions. The figure reflects gross traded volume, not confirmed net outflows, as part of the flows may relate to hedging or liquidity provision within the derivatives market.

Crypto analyst Darkfost said the decline in the average order size points to a “gradual disengagement” from larger participants. According to the analyst, smaller traders continue to transact at stable volumes, while bigger players are reducing direct interaction with the order books.

This shift indicates a temporary thinning of market depth. With fewer large resting orders, ETH’s capacity to absorb sharp price imbalances narrows in the short term.

Parallel to exchange flows, ETH accumulation addresses added more than 2.5 million ETH in February as the price fell about 20%. Total holdings climbed to 26.7 million ETH from 22 million at the start of 2026, signaling steady demand beneath the surface.

Related: Ethereum price drops to $1.8K as data suggests ETH bears are not done yet

Will Ether break its longest bearish streak since 2022?

Ether is now in its sixth straight week of losses, marking the longest uninterrupted weekly decline since the 10-week drawdown between March 2022 and June 2022. That earlier stretch unfolded during a broader bear market and led to a cycle bottom before price stabilized.

While the current pullback is not as long, the streak highlights sustained selling pressure and weakening momentum on the higher timeframe.

Historical market cycle data suggests that if the decline continues, a broad weekly demand zone between $1,384 and $1,691 may come into focus, an area that previously acted as accumulation during the early stages of the rally in 2023.

Futures market liquidation data shows more than $2 billion in short positions clustered around $2,000. This creates a dense liquidity pocket that may act as the near-term magnet for Ether price.

On the downside, approximately $682 million in long positions remain at risk if Ether drops to $1,600, indicating thinner liquidity compared to the upside cluster.

Crypto trader RickUntZ said he still sees potential for a V-shaped rebound from current levels, citing signs of underlying demand in the current structure. For now, data suggests that the $2,000 liquidation band remains the next key resistance to break.

Related: Ethereum Foundation starts staking ETH as client diversity concerns persist