Bitcoin started the week buoyant but quickly pared gains as a broad risk-off mood took hold across markets. The flagship cryptocurrency dipped about 5% as the S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq and gold trended lower, while crude oil surged roughly 7.3% and remained up about 53% since the conflict in the Middle East escalated on Feb. 28. The scale of the move points to a coordinated capital reallocation as traders reassess risk in a geopolitically tense environment.

Analysts frame the move as part of a wider cycle where liquidity, inflation dynamics and headline risk interact in ways that can stretch even established markets. The evolving backdrop—tied to the ongoing conflict in the region—has traders recalibrating exposures across traditional assets and crypto-linked vehicles alike.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin trades down near 5% as major risk assets retreat; oil climbs about 7.3%, underscoring a broad bid for energy and a shift in risk appetite since the Feb. 28 escalation.
• The Kobeissi Letter reports a combined $64 billion outflow from the SPY and QQQ ETFs over the last three months, the largest on record and roughly 5% of total assets under management, reversing a prior flow in November.
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $253 million in outflows over the past two days, while monthly crypto-spot ETF inflows stay positive at about $1.48 billion—yet cumulative outflows from November through February total around $6.3 billion, signaling a fragile recovery in demand.
• On-chain signals from Glassnode show profit-taking pressures and a market that struggles to absorb realizations, with the net realization flow temporarily surging before BTC slipped back below $70,000. Glassnode cautions that geopolitical uncertainty is compressing demand depth.
• Analysts offer divergent views on the path forward: some recall a Russia-Ukraine-era pattern of a brief rally followed by a sharper downturn, while others warn that a protracted Iran-related conflict could prolong a risk-off regime, with a potential bottom near $55,000 before any meaningful rebound.

Geopolitics, liquidity, and Bitcoin’s price arc

Market participants are watching how geopolitical developments shape liquidity and investor risk tolerance. After an initial uptick, Bitcoin’s price momentum softened as traders weighed the implications of prolonged conflict and rising energy costs. While oil has rallied, broad risk assets have faced a renewed bout of selling, with traders seeking liquidity and hedges in a more uncertain macro environment.

“Broader geopolitical uncertainty appears to be compressing demand depth, limiting the market’s capacity to absorb even moderate realization events.”

Industry observers have highlighted that the pattern mirrors episodes when major geopolitical events interact with liquidity constraints. While BTC showcased some resilience during earlier periods of turmoil, persistent stress on liquidity and energy prices tends to dampen the impulse to chase short-term rebounds, potentially extending the stabilization phase before a sustained rally can take hold.

ETF flows and the uphill climb for crypto exposure

The latest flow data illustrate a bifurcated landscape. On the one hand, there is continued resilience in aggregate crypto-spot ETF inflows for the month, roughly totaling $1.48 billion, signaling ongoing demand for regulated exposure to digital assets. On the other hand, the two-day outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs—around $253 million—underscore how capital remains sensitive to macro headlines and risk-off episodes. In the longer horizon, cumulative outflows from November through February tally around $6.3 billion, suggesting that institutional demand for crypto, while positive on a monthly basis, has yet to regain the footing seen in the pre-crisis period.

In a separate but related frame, the Kobeissi Letter highlighted a record outflow sweep from major equity ETFs tracking the broader market—the SPY and QQQ—over the last three months, totaling roughly $64 billion. That figure marks the largest such exodus on record and translates to about 5% of assets under management moving away from those benchmarks, illustrating a broad risk-off shift that also ripples into crypto markets as investors recalibrate holdings across asset classes.

On-chain signals and analyst mood music

On-chain analytics provider Glassnode offered a lens into the day-to-day dynamics underpinning price moves. The firm noted a burst of net realized profit-taking, briefly accelerating to around $17 million per hour on a 24-hour basis, before momentum faded and BTC slipped again below the $70,000 level. Glassnode framed the development as evidence of a market struggling to absorb moderate realizations in the current geopolitical climate.

The analysis captures a broader tension: as risk assets wobble, liquidity becomes more expensive or harder to source, and traders face a squeeze from energy costs and forced selling during stress periods. In such a setup, even modest realizations can ripple through order books, damping price durability and delaying a more decisive rebound.

Different voices on the near-term trajectory

Market commentary in recent days has coalesced around two plausible narratives. One perspective, echoing patterns observed during the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, suggests Bitcoin may experience an initial rally before a more pronounced pullback, as risk-off dynamics persist and traders reassess hedges and exposure. The other view centers on the Iran-related dimension of the current conflict: in a social media thread, a trader argued that until the Iran situation is resolved, upside for BTC could remain capped as macro risk-off dominates markets. The analyst suggested a potential bottom around the $55,000 area before a more durable recovery might unfold.

It’s a reminder that the near-term path for Bitcoin remains tethered to a complex mix of geopolitical developments, liquidity conditions, and risk appetite. Traders should remain attentive to energy prices, the pace of capital withdrawals from traditional equity ETFs, and shifts in on-chain activity that could offer hints about whether demand depth is gradually returning or staying restrained.

What to watch next

As the conflict continues to shape market sentiment, several threads could inform the next leg for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Oil prices and energy costs will likely influence risk tolerance and macro liquidity. Equity ETF flows—particularly the behavior of SPY and QQQ—offer a useful barometer of institutions’ comfort with taking or avoiding risk. On-chain metrics, including realized profit and loss, will continue to reflect the balance between holders looking to realize gains and new buyers stepping in to absorb selling pressure.

In the immediate term, traders should monitor whether the market stabilizes around key levels or if the risk-off regime intensifies, prolonging a period of consolidation. If liquidity conditions ease and geopolitical headlines move toward resolution, Bitcoin could regain momentum; if not, the market may test lower supports before a more sustainable recovery emerges.

Readers should stay tuned for updates on both macro developments and crypto-specific fund flows, as these two threads remain tightly linked in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory in the weeks ahead.

Key Takeaways

• Grayscale has submitted an S-1 filing to the SEC for a spot Hyperliquid ETF, becoming the third firm alongside Bitwise and 21Shares
• HYPE posted approximately 21% gains over the past week, with prices hovering between $40 and $43
• The token momentarily surpassed Cardano (ADA) in market capitalization, cracking the top 10 rankings
• Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder, projects HYPE could reach $150 by August 2026
• The Hyperliquid platform processes approximately $500 million in daily volume, allocating 97% of revenues toward HYPE token buybacks

Grayscale has submitted an S-1 registration filing with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission seeking approval for a spot Hyperliquid exchange-traded fund. Should regulators greenlight the proposal, the fund would list on Nasdaq using the ticker symbol GHYP, with Coinbase serving as the designated custodian. The company has not yet revealed what management fees would apply.

This submission positions Grayscale as the third major asset manager pursuing a Hyperliquid ETF, following earlier applications from Bitwise and 21Shares. Bitwise initially submitted its filing in September before revising the application in December to incorporate staking capabilities. 21Shares similarly included provisions for potential staking features in its October submission.

Grayscale has indicated it might incorporate staking into the GHYP offering down the line, although no concrete timeline has been established. Adding staking functionality would enable fund investors to generate additional returns beyond any appreciation in HYPE’s market value.

Institutional Interest Grows Alongside Price Performance

The surge in ETF applications coincides with strong market momentum for HYPE. The token posted approximately 21% gains throughout the week, climbing into the $40 to $43 price corridor. This upward movement temporarily propelled Hyperliquid above Cardano (ADA) by market capitalization, securing a brief spot among the top 10 cryptocurrencies.

Cardano also experienced positive price action this week, approaching $0.29, though the gains proved insufficient to maintain its ranking advantage. Cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez identified a possible bullish setup for ADA, noting that maintaining support at $0.23 could enable a rally toward $0.32 and potentially $0.37.

Arthur Hayes, who co-founded BitMEX, has openly declared a $150 valuation target for HYPE by August 2026. This projection implies roughly a fivefold increase from previous price levels around $30. Hayes contends that Hyperliquid’s tokenomics—which channel approximately 97% of platform revenues into HYPE buyback programs—create a direct connection between the platform’s financial performance and token valuation.

Trading Volume Fuels Token Economics

Hyperliquid operates as a decentralized exchange specializing in perpetual futures contracts. The platform processes between $40 billion and $100 billion in weekly trading activity, establishing it as the dominant player in this segment based on DeFiLlama metrics.

Daily transaction volumes have peaked near $500 million in recent sessions. The exchange is simultaneously pursuing product expansion, including initiatives to bring traditional S&P 500 exposure on-chain.

Multiple competing platforms such as Aster, Lighter, and edgeX have entered the market in 2025, capturing modest market share, though Hyperliquid maintains commanding leadership during most weekly periods.

Aggregate weekly perpetual futures volume across all decentralized platforms has ranged between $125 billion and $300 billion throughout this year—representing more than double the activity levels recorded during the comparable timeframe last year.

HYPE continues trading in the $40–$43 band following its 21% weekly advance.

TLDR:

• U.S. Treasury issued a short-term authorization releasing 140 million barrels of stranded Iranian oil to global markets.
• China had been quietly hoarding sanctioned Iranian oil at discounted prices before the Treasury intervened with this measure.
• Iran will struggle to access revenue from the oil sales as maximum pressure on its financial system stays fully intact.
• The Trump administration has now moved roughly 440 million additional barrels of oil into global supply through targeted actions.

Iranian oil stranded at sea is set to reach global markets under a new U.S. Treasury measure. The Treasury Department announced a short-term authorization permitting the sale of sanctioned Iranian oil.

This move is part of President Trump’s Operation Epic Fury, targeting Iran’s role in global terrorism. The authorization is narrowly designed and covers only oil already in transit. It does not permit new purchases or production from Iran.

U.S. Turns Iranian Oil Barrels Against Tehran to Stabilize Global Energy Supply

The Trump administration is using sanctioned Iranian oil as a strategic tool against Tehran. China has been buying this supply at discounted prices, according to Treasury officials.

Around 140 million barrels will be released to global markets through the authorization. This aims to relieve temporary supply pressures caused by Iran.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the measure on X, describing Iran as the head of the snake for global terrorism. He noted that Operation Epic Fury is progressing faster than initially anticipated.

The authorization directly responds to Iran’s terrorist attacks on global energy infrastructure. Bessent framed the move as deploying America’s economic and military strength against Tehran.

The authorization is strictly limited to oil already at sea and in transit. New purchases and new production of Iranian oil remain prohibited under existing U.S. sanctions.

These restrictions ensure the measure does not expand access to Iran’s broader energy sector. The short-term, narrowly tailored nature of the authorization is fundamental to its scope.

So far, the Trump administration has brought approximately 440 million additional barrels to global markets. The latest authorization adds 140 million more barrels to that cumulative total.

Together, these efforts work to undercut Iran’s leverage over disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Energy supply expansion remains central to the administration’s ongoing Iran pressure strategy.

Iran’s Revenue Access Stays Blocked as Maximum Pressure Policy Remains in Force

Despite the temporary authorization, Iran will face serious challenges accessing any revenue from the oil sales. The Treasury confirmed that maximum pressure on Iran’s financial systems will continue uninterrupted.

Iran’s access to international financial networks remains heavily restricted under active U.S. sanctions. This limits Tehran’s capacity to economically benefit from the measure.

President Trump’s pro-energy agenda has driven U.S. oil and gas production to record levels. This has strengthened energy security and helped lower fuel costs for American consumers.

The administration views energy dominance as both an economic and geopolitical asset. Strong domestic supply reduces global vulnerability to state-sponsored energy disruptions.

The Treasury’s authorization fits within a broader coordinated economic and military campaign. Both tools are being deployed to maximize the flow of energy to global markets.

Bessent confirmed that the U.S. aims to ensure market stability throughout Operation Epic Fury. Sanctions enforcement and targeted supply relief are being applied in tandem.

Bessent stated that any short-term market disruption will translate into longer-term economic gains for Americans. The administration maintains that there is no prosperity without security.

Operation Epic Fury continues applying pressure on Tehran while stabilizing global oil supply. Further measures remain available should Iran escalate its attacks on energy infrastructure.

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin experienced a nearly 3% decline this week, retreating from $76,000 to approximately $70,000
• Federal Reserve maintained current rates while projecting just one reduction in 2026, dampening risk asset enthusiasm
• Citi analyst reduced Bitcoin price projection from $143,000 down to $112,000 due to legislative roadblocks
• Strategy expanded its holdings by purchasing 22,337 BTC, increasing total reserves to 761,068 BTC
• Morgan Stanley submitted an updated S-1 filing for a spot Bitcoin ETF with planned ticker symbol MSBT

Bitcoin began the trading week with strong performance, surging to $76,000 on Tuesday — marking its peak level since the beginning of February. However, this upward trajectory proved short-lived.

The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at the 3.50%–3.75% range on Wednesday, marking its consecutive second meeting without adjustment. Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that escalating tensions involving Iran would likely elevate inflation pressures, diminishing the probability of rate reductions during the current year. The central bank’s updated projections anticipate a single rate reduction in 2026 and another in 2027, while increasing its PCE inflation forecast to 2.7%.

This conservative monetary approach negatively impacted risk-oriented investments. Bitcoin dipped beneath $69,000 on Thursday before bouncing back to approximately $70,843 by Friday — representing a weekly decline approaching 3%.

Central Bank Messaging Pressures Markets

Aurelie Barthere, Principal Research Analyst at Nansen, observed that the Fed elevated both inflation and economic growth forecasts. She emphasized that the press conference centered predominantly on inflationary concerns, characterizing the overall messaging as “rather hawkish.”

Escalating crude oil values, sparked by Israel’s strike on Iran’s South Pars gas infrastructure, intensified market pressures. Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, commented: “Increasing energy expenses, postponed monetary easing prospects, and a strengthening dollar are fostering a more discriminating investment climate.”

The $70,000 threshold has emerged as the critical level for market participants. Analyst Iliya Kalchev from Nexo Dispatch suggested that maintaining this level “invites a stabilization trade,” whereas breaching it “reopens the path toward the next support cluster.”

Banking Giant Lowers Outlook as Legislative Progress Stalls

Citi analyst Alex Saunders reduced his Bitcoin valuation target to $112,000 from the previous $143,000 projection. This adjustment stems from the Clarity Act — proposed cryptocurrency market framework legislation — encountering congressional obstacles. Probability metrics on Polymarket indicate passage likelihood has fallen to 60%, declining sharply from approximately 90% in February.

President Trump expressed on Truth Social: “The U.S. needs to get market structure done, ASAP. Americans should earn more money on their money.”

Notwithstanding the challenging week, Strategy’s Michael Saylor revealed on Monday that the company acquired an additional 22,337 BTC. The firm’s cumulative position currently totals 761,068 BTC, with a mean acquisition cost of $75,696.

Bitcoin spot ETF activity displayed variable patterns throughout the week. Monday and Tuesday recorded positive flows of $201 million and $199 million respectively, while Wednesday and Thursday witnessed outflows totaling $163 million and $90 million.

Concurrently, technical analysis shared by cryptocurrency account CryptoBullet identified a rising wedge formation on BTC charts, suggesting a possible decline toward sub-$50,000 levels should the pattern complete its breakdown sequence.

Morgan Stanley submitted an updated S-1 registration document with the SEC for a spot Bitcoin ETF, scheduled for NYSE Arca listing under ticker MSBT. Upon regulatory approval, this would represent the inaugural spot BTC ETF launched directly by a major American banking institution.

TLDR:

• Circle Nanopayments supports USDC transfers as small as $0.000001, removing gas fees from sub-cent transactions entirely.
  
• Transactions are aggregated offchain and settled onchain in batches, allowing throughput to scale beyond blockchain congestion limits.
  
• The non-custodial design ensures only agent-signed authorizations can move funds, keeping user control intact at all times.
  
• Nanopayments preserves full x402 v2 protocol compatibility, making integration straightforward for developers already on the standard.

Circle Nanopayments is a new infrastructure solution designed to support gas-free USDC transfers as small as $0.000001.

The system addresses a growing need in the agentic economy, where autonomous AI agents must make continuous, high-frequency payments for API calls, inference, and compute.

By aggregating transactions offchain and settling them onchain in batches, Circle has built a financial rail suited for machine-to-machine commerce at scale.

Why Traditional Payment Rails Fall Short for AI Agents

Autonomous agents operate across disparate systems and execute multi-step workflows without direct human oversight.

As they do so, they need to pay continuously and in tiny increments for digital resources. Traditional payment infrastructure was not built for this type of activity.

Fixed fees, settlement latency, and operational overhead make sub-cent payments economically unviable on most networks.

On Ethereum, for example, a $0.000001 transfer carries a fee of over 53 million percent of the transfer amount. Even low-cost chains like Solana still impose fees that dwarf the value of ultra-small payments.

Circle took to X to address this directly, stating: “The rise of AI agents demands a new payment model. Traditional rails can’t support sub-cent payments, but USDC can. With Circle Nanopayments, developers can enable gas-free USDC transfers down to $0.000001, aggregated offchain and settled onchain in batches.”

Public blockchains also face throughput and predictability challenges. Network congestion and gas market dynamics affect how quickly transactions are processed.

Pay-per-crawl use cases require reliable, high-volume capacity that public mempools cannot consistently guarantee.

Interoperability adds another layer of complexity. Buyers and sellers often operate on different blockchain networks.

To accept broad payments, merchants must either verify transactions across multiple chains or rely on a third-party facilitator. This raises the integration burden, particularly for non-crypto-native publishers.

Circle addressed these barriers through offchain aggregation. Transactions are batched together and settled onchain periodically.

This removes per-payment gas costs entirely and allows throughput to scale independently of public blockchain congestion.

How Nanopayments Works and What Powers Its Security

Circle explains the payment flow in a straightforward sequence. An agent makes a one-time USDC deposit into the Circle Gateway smart contract, which funds its available Nanopayments balance.

When the agent requests a paid resource, the merchant responds with a 402 Payment Required status and payment details.

The agent then signs an EIP-3009 authorization for the requested amount and retries the request. The merchant submits the signed authorization to Nanopayments for verification. Circle instantly validates the signature against the agent’s offchain balance and deducts the payment amount.

Settlement happens asynchronously. Thousands of signed authorizations are batched, verified inside a Trusted Execution Environment (TEE), and submitted as a single onchain transaction. The onchain contract then verifies the TEE signature before updating balances.

Circle further noted that its solution delivers “no per-transaction gas drag, predictable throughput at scale, and standardized agent-to-merchant payments,” describing it as “the financial rail for agentic economic activity.”

Nanopayments also maintains full compatibility with the x402 v2 protocol, originally developed by Coinbase. The enhancements apply only to aggregation, verification, and settlement.

The standard x402 request and response structure remains unchanged, easing adoption for developers already building on that protocol.

TLDR:

• BTQ Technologies launched testnet v0.3 of Bitcoin Quantum, marking the first live implementation of BIP 360.
  
• BIP 360 introduces Pay-to-Merkle-Root outputs that hide public keys, reducing exposure to future quantum attacks.
  
• Bitcoin’s current ECDSA encryption could be broken by a sufficiently powerful quantum computer targeting private keys.
  
• Moving BIP 360 to Bitcoin’s mainnet requires a community-approved soft fork, with no confirmed timeline yet in place.

Bitcoin quantum resistance has taken a notable step forward as BTQ Technologies launched testnet v0.3 of Bitcoin Quantum.

This release marks the first live implementation of BIP 360, a proposed quantum-proof upgrade built for the Bitcoin network.

The testnet is now live and operational, moving the project firmly from concept to running code. Still, reaching Bitcoin’s mainnet will require a soft fork and the full support of the broader community.

How BIP 360 Addresses the Quantum Computing Threat

Bitcoin currently relies on elliptic curve cryptography, known as ECDSA, to protect wallets. This method has secured the network reliably for more than 15 years without a major breach.

It works much like a deadbolt lock on a front door — effective today, but not designed for quantum-era threats.

The concern, however, lies in quantum computing. A powerful enough quantum computer could reverse-engineer a private key directly from a public key.

That outcome would expose wallets across the entire Bitcoin network to theft. The risk is real, even if the technology to exploit it does not yet exist.

Crypto media outlet Milk Road addressed this risk in a social media post. It described quantum computers as a future lockpick, not yet built, but known to be in development.

The threat is widely acknowledged across the crypto industry. However, no quantum machine capable of breaking Bitcoin’s encryption is currently operational.

BIP 360 proposes to fix this gap by introducing Pay-to-Merkle-Root, or P2MR, transaction outputs. These outputs hide the public key from public view. This reduces the attack surface for any future quantum-based intrusion.

The proposal also sets the stage for quantum-resistant signature schemes, including Dilithium.

BTQ Technologies Testnet and the Road to Bitcoin Mainnet

BTQ Technologies moved past theory by launching a live testnet for BIP 360. The v0.3 release is described as the first of its kind for this proposed protocol upgrade.

It runs functional code in a real testing environment, not a simulation. This step signals that the project has moved well beyond the whitepaper stage.

Moving BIP 360 from testnet to mainnet, however, requires a Bitcoin soft fork. A soft fork is a backward-compatible protocol change that the broader Bitcoin network must approve. Miners, developers, and node operators all need to reach agreement before the change takes effect.

Bitcoin governance has historically been a careful and time-consuming process. Protocol changes require extensive peer review and community debate before adoption. As a result, there is currently no confirmed timeline for BIP 360 to go live on mainnet.

Milk Road noted that reaching mainnet requires the full Bitcoin community to agree on the soft fork. That process is historically slow in Bitcoin development circles.

Nevertheless, BTQ Technologies moved ahead by launching a functioning testnet rather than waiting for the threat to escalate. Tackling the problem before it becomes urgent reflects a responsible approach to long-term protocol security.

TLDR:

• Payward supports the White House AI framework to establish a clear, consistent federal AI policy across the U.S. 
• Co-CEO Arjun Sethi warns that regulatory fragmentation becomes a chokepoint on deployment and capital allocation. 
• Kraken backed the framework on X, stating AI will shape the next generation of financial and economic infrastructure. 
• Payward sees the national AI framework as essential for leading AI-powered finance, tokenized assets, and digital infrastructure.

A national AI framework released by the White House has gained strong support from Payward, Kraken’s parent company.

The firm called for clarity, consistency, and U.S. competitiveness in federal AI governance. Payward stated the framework removes harmful regulatory fragmentation across state lines.

This would lower costs and speed up deployment for American AI companies building at scale.

Payward Frames AI as Foundational Infrastructure, Not an Application Layer

Payward welcomed the release of the White House’s national AI legislative framework. The company expressed full support for a clear, consistent federal approach to AI policy.

According to Payward, AI will shape the next generation of economic and market infrastructure. The key question is whether that infrastructure is built in the United States or elsewhere.

Arjun Sethi, Co-CEO of Payward, drew a sharp comparison between AI and existing foundational systems. “AI is not an application-layer technology. It is becoming a foundational infrastructure layer, analogous to compute, networking, and financial rails,” Sethi said.

He added that the policy question is whether that infrastructure is built within a coherent U.S. regulatory system. The alternative, he warned, is fragmentation across jurisdictions that degrades performance and increases time to market.

Sethi went further in describing how fragmentation affects business operations and capital flow. “At scale, fragmentation is not just a regulatory issue. It becomes a chokepoint on system performance, introducing friction across deployment, data, and capital allocation,” he continued.

A clear national framework, he said, collapses that overhead entirely. It creates a clear surface area for builders to compete and develop globally dominant platforms.

Sethi also tied AI governance directly to future economic leadership across nations. “Countries that value AI as infrastructure, and regulate it accordingly, will own the next generation of economic systems,” he stated.

Payward reaffirmed its commitment to responsible innovation in AI, blockchain, and finance. The company said a consistent federal policy supports continued growth across these interconnected sectors.

White House Framework Addresses AI-Powered Finance and Digital Asset Infrastructure

Kraken voiced its support through a post on social platform X, backing the new framework directly. “AI will shape the next generation of financial and economic infrastructure,” the exchange wrote.

It added that stronger policy foundations strengthen America’s ability to lead in technology and financial infrastructure. Kraken also noted its support for the White House’s work to advance a clearer national framework.

The White House framework establishes guiding principles for a unified national AI approach. It aims to eliminate conflicting state-level rules that have slowed technology deployment.

Moreover, it targets cost reductions and removes barriers for U.S. companies to build and scale. Societal safeguards are also woven into the framework alongside innovation and competitiveness goals.

Payward praised the Trump Administration’s approach to AI governance as forward-thinking and balanced. The framework covers AI-powered financial services, tokenized assets, and secure digital infrastructure.

These areas align directly with Payward’s core business in digital assets and financial technology. The firm said the framework strikes the right balance between rapid innovation and public safety.

Payward is committed to collaborating with policymakers, industry partners, and other relevant stakeholders. It stated that implementing the framework effectively remains a shared priority going forward.

The company views this national AI framework as a foundation for U.S. technological dominance. It called on industry and government to work together in building globally competitive AI systems.

Gold slid 3.5% on Friday, trading around $4,488 per ounce, as geopolitical volatility and uncertainty in the Middle East weighed on sentiment. The decline pushed the metal’s weekly drop to about 11%, the steepest weekly decline since 1983, underscoring how a risk-off environment can erode the appeal of traditional safe-havens when energy and geopolitical risks dominate markets.

From late February, when US and allied actions in the region intensified, gold has fallen more than 15%, erasing a portion of a rapid rally that had lifted prices toward the $5,500 mark in late January. TradingView data highlighted that March 16–20 marked gold’s worst-performing week since 1983, underscoring how quickly the narrative can shift in times of geopolitical strain. TradingView noted the week’s move as historically significant for the yellow metal.

Analysts say the conflict is disrupting global energy flows, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, feeding fears of a prolonged energy crisis as markets weigh the balance between safe-haven demand and the impact of higher energy costs on inflation and growth. In such an environment, investors are furling into risk-off assets while considering how energy-market dynamics might influence central-bank policy in the near term.

Amid the regional tensions, US President Donald Trump said he was weighing a winding-down of some Middle East military efforts. While talk of reducing troop deployments emerged, the United States has continued to bolster its regional presence, and airstrikes in the area persisted. The evolving stance adds another layer of uncertainty for traders trying to gauge the risk premium priced into gold and other assets.

Market watchers are also focusing on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. The broader expectation remains that the Fed will hold interest rates steady for the year, which could keep fixed-income yields attractive relative to gold in the near term. In a related note, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that higher energy prices could push inflation higher in the near term, complicating the inflation trajectory and potentially influencing the demand for both gold and crypto assets as hedges or diversifiers.

Bitcoin finds footing as gold wobbles

Over the past year, gold has outperformed many traditional assets, rising roughly 48.5% while the broader crypto market has retraced about 16.5% in the same period. In the current environment, Bitcoin has shown a degree of resilience, trading near $70,000 and having risen more than 11% since the initial Iran-related attacks. The latest move reflects a common pattern where crypto markets react to geopolitical shocks differently than traditional safe-havens, sometimes offering a counterbalance to gold’s shifts.

Bitcoin’s relative performance this month has been notable. While gold has faced renewed pressure from the energy and geopolitical backdrop, BTC’s pullback earlier this year has shifted into a recovery phase, with the digital asset reclaiming some ground as investors evaluate risk, liquidity, and the potential for institutional and retail adoption to influence price trajectories. The dynamics illustrate a broader theme in crypto markets: while gold’s role as a hedge remains debated in times of energy-market stress, Bitcoin can exhibit outsized sensitivity to policy signals, global risk appetite, and liquidity conditions.

That said, the longer-term relationship between gold and crypto remains nuanced. The twelve-month lens shows gold’s robust rally vs. a broader crypto retracement, highlighting ongoing debates about which assets best weather macro shocks and how central-bank policy, energy volatility, and geopolitical risks reweight those choices for investors, traders, and builders in the crypto ecosystem.

What this means for markets and readers

The current environment underscores a few persistent themes for crypto markets and traditional assets alike. First, geopolitical risk can simultaneously depress traditional safe havens like gold and alter risk sentiment in crypto, where Bitcoin and other digital assets may trade as high-beta instruments in the short term. Second, energy-price dynamics and central-bank policy expectations are closely linked; if energy costs push inflation higher longer than anticipated, monetary policy paths may shift, affecting both gold’s appeal and crypto liquidity environments. Lastly, as the Strait of Hormuz and related chokepoints remain in focus, traders will continue to monitor oil-flow disruptions and their implications for global growth and asset correlations.

Investors should watch how central banks respond to evolving energy and inflation signals in the coming weeks, alongside any escalation or de-escalation in regional tensions. Crypto traders may look for catalysts in liquidity shifts, exchange flows, and macro scenarios that could widen the divergence between traditional safe-havens and digital-asset assets.

Looking ahead, the market will be attentive to any developments that could alter the risk calculus: a clear shift in Middle East policy, updates from the Fed on rate guidance, and how energy markets respond to supply-and-demand dynamics. In these conditions, gold and Bitcoin continue to offer distinct narratives about hedging, risk-taking, and the evolving role of crypto in a macro-driven market backdrop.

Readers should stay tuned for updates on geopolitical developments, central-bank communications, and energy-market signals, as they will shape the relative performance of gold, Bitcoin, and the broader crypto landscape in the near term.

A Satoshi-era Bitcoin whale has reawakened after nearly 14 years of dormancy, making a test transaction from its 2,100 Bitcoin stash worth nearly $148 million at current market prices.

Data from mempool.space shows around $47 worth of Bitcoin (BTC) was transferred from wallet address “1NB3Z…QB6ZX” to a fresh address on Friday at 10:27am UTC.

The Bitcoin whale had been dormant since July 2012, when they scooped up the 2,100 Bitcoin at roughly $6.5 a coin for about $13,685, Whale Alert noted, meaning the trader is up more than 1,000,000% since 2012.

The test transaction doesn’t necessarily mean the whale is looking to offload its holdings. Many whales make small transfers to confirm that they still maintain full control over their funds.

However, crypto traders often watch whale transaction patterns to gauge Bitcoin’s short-term price movements, given the outsized influence that they have on market liquidity and sentiment.

Bitcoin whales contributed to selling pressure in the past

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said in November that Satoshi-era wallets were partially to blame for Bitcoin failing to recover from the Oct. 10 market flash crash, when the cryptocurrency fell from over $120,000 to around $102,000 after nearly $19 billion worth of leveraged positions were wiped out.